True Blue Brew Crew

Given the fact that Rosenthal's source was Stearns himself, I'm led to believe that Stearns used to Rosenthal to get the word out and start the bidding. Much like Stearns' public admonishing of Arcia was out of character and had me believing a replacement was coming, I'm now expecting a Hader trade this offseason. There's reason to believe we've already gotten the best of Hader when factoring in salary and effectiveness. And with free agency looking costlier by the day, Hader is the most likely movable piece than can fill some big holes. Did Rosenthal say that Stearns said that? I missed it. Yep, Rosenthal's article was made up of direct quotes from Stearns.

Agreed, no surprise on this one. On the flip side, tendering any of Shaw, Nelson, or Guerra would be a surprise to me. I think all 3 are goners.

Hernan Perez role, just in a different way. Arcia plays short when someone needs a day and Urias moves around. Now just need someone with the versatility to play the corner IF spots.

Put people in motion. Doesn't have to be a jet sweep or and end around every time. Just give the defense some different looks and not let them win at the line of scrimmage via knowing your tendencies by formation. Heck, if you like to run strong side right, at least start the TE on the left and motion him to the right before the snap. Anything but a static offense where you simply expect your massive o-line to win the line of scrimmage by shear might the way you can against Eastern Illinois. Give the defense something to think about and react to as opposed to chomping at the bit because they know "run right" or "run left" is coming.

It's like people don't think there are other ways to put together a winning ballclub. The all or nothing, strikeout or hit a home run offense, isn't even the most optimal route for a small market budget. Yet these are the same people who complain about not being able to drive in a runner from 3rd with less than two outs. They also apparently haven't grasped how much bad money is spent in free agency. Ask the Phillies how winning the free agency sweepstakes has been working out for them. When teams are suddenly back to overpaying for .260 and 30 dingers, you run in the opposite direction.

Given the fact that Rosenthal's source was Stearns himself, I'm led to believe that Stearns used to Rosenthal to get the word out and start the bidding. Much like Stearns' public admonishing of Arcia was out of character and had me believing a replacement was coming, I'm now expecting a Hader trade this offseason. There's reason to believe we've already gotten the best of Hader when factoring in salary and effectiveness. And with free agency looking costlier by the day, Hader is the most likely movable piece than can fill some big holes.

I'm to the point that I'll be somewhat let down if they don't trade him. His value is as high as it's ever going to be going forward as he gets closer to FA. And the more that NL batters face him, the easier he'll likely be able to time up if he's going to keep trying to get by on one pitch. The HR rate last year was alarming. And I'm excited thinking about Stearns taking bids and selecting the talent he's highest on in return.

Odd. It seems more likely to me. The return for Hader can plug some pretty big holes.

I'm as down on Arcia as anyone but giving him away, much less taking on salary to do so, doesn't make a lick of sense. Worst case, he takes the Hernan Perez role this year. Not quite the same positional versatility as Perez, but with Urias, Arcia could be used to give our 2B, SS, and 3B their needed off days. And once we have our 3B pinned down, if that individual has the ability to play 1B, (or vice versa) Arcia could help give the entire IF the rest days CC likes to provide. How so... Basically, if Urias wins the everyday SS job as I expect, Arcia becomes his primary backup. But since Urias can play 2B and 3B, we can shift him to either of those places and insert Arica at SS to give Hiura and our 3B a day off. And if our 3B has the ability to play 1B, our first baseman can get a day off with our 3B shifting to 1B, Urias at 3B and Arcia at SS. This is where I think they're ultimately heading. The key being adding a player who plays both 3B and 1B. Supplementing a Moustakas return with Howie Kendrick would be just about the perfect fit. Something I called for the day they decided to turn down Thames option. I really hope it happens.

If you can't derive enjoyment from watching your team win 10 in a row, you're doing fandom wrong.

Yes. He started a thread about collusion. Totally blasted anyone who didn't agree with him by attacking them and other non-sense. Probably should have been banned. If you follow him on Twitter you'll see how unhinged he is. Yep, that was it, now I remember. Thanks

The Bucks are strategic about what they concede. And it often requires the opponent to shoot well beyond statistical probability to beat them. Statistically it's a good defense and they have the league leading point differential to prove it. Doing the best job in the league at scoring more than your opponent is the primary objective after all.

That simply can't happen without the seller being awfully dumb, doing someone a favor (like a relative), or there being something grossly wrong with the sold home. In the real estate example it would be the seller having no clue of the value of the home, selling well below market to a loved one, or the home being a complete rehab. The numbers that derive the Zillow estimates are based on matching nearby, recent, and comparable sales data. Applied to this trade, Preller either grossly miscalculated, has drastically different valuations of the players involved, is doing Stearns a solid, or Urias is damaged goods. Since Urias's health doesn't seem to be in question, and I doubt Preller loves Stearns like a family member, the variance seems to rest solely with Preller. And if that's the case, you're making adjustments under the presumption that GMs can't make mistakes. I understand the second look to account for the totality of the season's of all players involved, but it seems like y'all might have taken it too far simply because of the disbelief that a GM would get taken so bad. Does Preller warrant that benefit of the doubt? Bringing Urias and Grisham to within 5 points of each other (50 to 45) on the Fangraphs scale seems to be too much of an adjustment. Do that too much or too often, and every post trade valuation will look reactionary. And it would also lessen the strength of your player valuations prior to a trade resetting them. I guess the way to look less reactionary would be to constantly update player valuations but I'm sure that's a daunting task. I do love the site, btw! I just hope the original lopsided valuations prove true. If that happens it will be a shame that the adjustments were made.

Vosler seems like the obvious choice out of these guys given his positional versatility between 1B/3B, the Brewers obvious need there, and his left-handedness at the plate. He's a little older (26) but that's why he's a throw-in not a centerpiece.

Didn't he have a blow up HERE? Something something smoke, fire.

I've seen similar thoughts by others here, so I'll just post a few numbers... Urias in Sept - .300 avg, .371 obp, .425 slg, .796 ops Urias got the majority of his ABs batting either 7th or 8th. His numbers batting 8th really dragged down his line. Perhaps he struggled with hitting in front of the pitcher and being pitched around as many hitters do... Urias '19 batting 7th - 101 abs, .267 avg, .357 obp, .455 slg, .812 ops Urias '19 batting 8th - 96 abs, .208, .345 obp, .240 slg, .584 ops (still drew those walks, likely wasn't given much to hit) And finally, while its a great sign that Urias finished 2019 with a very strong September, the entirety of his 2nd half was far better than what Arcia was giving the Brewers during the same time... Urias '19 Post AS - .241 avg, .341 obp, .351 slg, .692 ops Arcia '19 Post AS - .199 avg, .259 obp, .269 slg, .528 ops Urias got off to a terrible start, going 2 for 24 before being sent back down to the minors on April 20th. He didn't return until July 20th to post that 2nd half line. Given the strong finish, the forgivable struggles batting in front of the pitcher, and the likelihood he was pressing to keep his spot as a young player often does, I think there's plenty or reason to be optimistic that once he's settled in, he's going to take off like the player he's anticipated to be. Barring a horrendous spring training, I give him the assurance he's the every day SS, bat him anywhere but the 8 hole, and then let the kid hopefully become the hitter he's shown throughout the minors and in the majors this past September. Moving from Petco to AmFam could provide a big boost as well.

Put it this way, I'm sure Brice Turang's ears perked up when he heard the news. This most certainly clouds his future in Milwaukee. It could very well clear back up. But Urias is a cloud that didn't exist earlier today in the world of Brice Turang. He just needs to keep progressing and worry about where he'll play later. If he does his job, he'll have a spot in the majors somewhere, perhaps even Milwaukee.

For the 3rd time, IF Urias pans out, he can occupy SS for the next 6 years. And that would most certainly alter the future of Turang. No one is saying this frees them up to trade Turang this offseason. They certainly could but it would be more of a gamble. He's not major league ready so they have time to see what they have in Urias. It's very realistic to think they'll know if Urias is the guy at SS by the time Turang is knocking on the door to the majors. They might be sold on Urias by the all star break.

He is pretty much Chase Anderson, slightly worse thus far in his career. Which is kinda strange why the Brewers would go after him as they hated Anderson's profile. Maybe they think they can improve something in him. At worst he is a cheap #5 starter. Well they're probably looking at 2 big differences between Lauer and Anderson... 7 years of age (24/31) --- and --- One looks to be on the upswing while the other regressed in many metrics last year. Dunno. Should also add that left-handedness and salary are big plusses in Lauer's favor as well.

Last year, Lauer's hit rate, walk rate, and FIP went down, his K rate, IP, and ERA+ went up, and his HR rate stayed the same. Good trend.

The gap looks to have been bridged. Never thought they get someone like Urias though. If Urias sticks for the next 6 years, it begs the question of what becomes of Turang. It isn't really worth questioning because Urias hasn't proven to be a worthy MLB SS and Turang is nowhere near the MLB level. It becomes a question if you don't leave out the beginning of the very sentence you bolded. If Urias pans out, Turang is looked at in a whole new light.

It's literally the easiest place they could make an upgrade without having to break the bank. Could he be the Brewers SS come Opening Day? Sure, but I'm definitely not betting on it. Assuming they don't address the worst SS group in major league baseball seems foolhardy. I was think along the lines of a cheap veteran filler. Instead they actually sent out salary and might have locked down the position for the next 6 years. Even better.

The gap looks to have been bridged. Never thought they get someone like Urias though. If Urias sticks for the next 6 years, it begs the question of what becomes of Turang.

Urias fits the bill. Hit tool is 70 and he draws walks. It never made sense to hear Stearns call out Arcia so openly if he didn't have something up his sleeve. Looks like Urias was the something that got done.

Feels like there have to be a few GMs seeing this today and thinking "***, did the Preller (Padres GM) lose my number?"