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True Blue Brew Crew

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Everything posted by True Blue Brew Crew

  1. True Blue Brew Crew
    In other words, the Brewers have been one of the most aggressive teams adding payroll the last 2 years. Yet come December / January next year we'll still have our annual hand-wringing here about Mark A being too cheap and David Stearns being too conservative. Looking forward to it.
  2. True Blue Brew Crew
    It's more like the Yankees need the roster spot and are putting out the call to see if anyone wants to improve their mediocre offers. If not, they'll accept the one that's currently best of the bunch.
  3. True Blue Brew Crew
    Well Graham could be exaggerating about its "nastyness". It's still almost assuredly Burnes' 3rd best pitch. And when you're in the pen, going once through the order at most, there's no reason to throw anything but your best stuff. If Burnes can match Peralta's ability to keep hitters off balance multiple times through, the Brewers are sitting pretty. Collectively they've likely already got the arms to cover the needed innings to avoid having to send pitchers out deep into games when the splits would be working against them.
  4. True Blue Brew Crew
    Very exciting to hear. That's all that was missing to this point in the majors. If he makes proper use of an effective enough changeup, watch out.
  5. True Blue Brew Crew
    Still the most logical fit imo, even 3 months later. Stearns' patience has probably cut the price in half as well.
  6. True Blue Brew Crew
    Bat - Hiura. When he arrives, be it late May or early June, I've been on record as him being our 3rd best bat from that point on in 2019. I'm gonna bump that up to 2nd best behind Yelich. Given there are some saying he might not even be ready for the majors in 2019 and with Steamer projecting a .697 OPS, I'd say that qualifies him for having "out of nowhere stars " potential. His 2019 OPS will push .900 Arm - Peralta. By the end of 2019 he'll be looked upon as the team's top initial out getter.
  7. True Blue Brew Crew
    I could have sworn that with deferred payments such as Ramirez, the Grandal signing, and now settled arby cases they're already over 120.
  8. True Blue Brew Crew
    You don't have to be a top 100 prospect to have success one trip through a batting order. If anything, greater use of 3 inning stints increases the number of pitchers a team can develop effectively because they don't need a 3rd pitch to be useful. It's not coincidence that Brewers social media is sticking with the term "initial out getter". What worked last year, worked for a reason that wasn't a fluke. And it's here to stay. I think the reason the Brewers would like another starter is because the transition away from specialists and 1-inning guys can't happen overnight. Another Chacin-like starter added to the group would be useful in covering innings not yet ready to be covered by everyone pitching 3-4 innings at a time. But that doesn't mean they're desperate or have to overpay to get one. Building depth and shuttling fresh arms back and forth is a permanent and very effective thing for a small market. And the pitching numbers that strategy generates will eventually provoke even large market teams to follow suit.
  9. True Blue Brew Crew
    The Mets have been one of the worst offenders annually in DRS (or lack thereof). It makes sense that their new GM recognized how impactful a strong CF could be to their overall defense. And it makes sense that ultimately they stepped up and met Stearns' demands. Van Wagenen clearly recognizes the compound effect of turning hits into outs on a team's pitching. And he went out and got Cain-lite for the time being. Given where their defense has ranked in saving runs, plugging Broxton in CF and pairing that with those arms, there could be a dramatic effect.
  10. True Blue Brew Crew
    My heart just stopped.
  11. True Blue Brew Crew
    With Broxton now gone, those patrons sitting behind the plate will have to supply their own fans on hot summer days and nights.
  12. True Blue Brew Crew
    I'll add that you can safely bet good money that Stearns and his team are looking at pitchers who would have seen the greatest benefit of having their defenders better positioned behind them. I can't offer proof of the use of the technology, but I can imagine a grunt (or group of grunts) charting free agent pitchers and where their batted balls in play would have fared with the Brewers defensive positioning for the corresponding batter. See whose grounders and fly balls that were hits last year would have been reduced most based on where the Brewers defenders would have been. It's a lot of work charting and then entering the data but that's why teams continue to beef up their analytical departments.
  13. True Blue Brew Crew
    Of course it's completely variable. And like I said there's no guarantee the Brewers defense will be as well placed in 2019. But people wonder how Wade Miley comes in and posts a 2.57 ERA and if a different name could achieve such a drastic improvement. Well, there's your illustration of how. New pitcher X could benefit dramatically pitching here just as Chacin and Miley did if the Brewers can repeat their significant advantage and performance in defensive runs saved. And a guy like Miley could sign in a place like Phil, Balt, or NYM, where their DRS numbers are ugly annually, be just as sharp on the mound in 2019, and yet see his ERA soar. If someone wants hope of unearthing another bargain priced free agent gem, that's the path.
  14. True Blue Brew Crew
    Sure. One or more of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson will most likely crush projections. As well as the fact that the Brewers defensive positioning and effective use of shifts can get better than expected results from a lot of pitchers. It's likely more responsible for their pitching numbers than any other factor including pitching coach. We know how passionate CC is about being able to utilize shifts. It's because he knows the Brewers have a leg up on most of the league in that regard. I'm not saying it's as simple as plugging in any pitcher and they'll put up strong numbers because their pitches that are put in play will find defenders, but in a way it is. To refresh everyone, the Brewers defense saved 96 runs last year. The Phillies defense saved (gave away) -132 runs last year. That's a 228 run difference due to defense. A drastic swing like that can change a team ERA by 1-1.5 runs. Other teams whose defensive positioning made their pitchers look worse than they were last year: Balt -104, Tor -96, NYM -84, CHW -60 Bottom line, no guarantees of that repeat level of success, but if the Brewers advanced scouting is effective at defensive positioning again in 2019, they can make just about any new face look better than they might be elsewhere.
  15. True Blue Brew Crew
    Yes that's another biggie. They haven't caught up to the way the Brewers deploy their pitchers. And in 2019 they'll be exposed to repeat trips even less.
  16. True Blue Brew Crew
    I don't think Steamer knows how to factor defensive positioning and effective use of shifts in their pitching projections. Remember, in 2018 a Brewer pitcher with the Orioles defense behind him would have had an ERA around 1.5 runs higher. So basically a pitcher could throw the same pitches to the same batters, generate the same swings and misses, but have dramatically different results from batted balls in play. In Milwaukee the batted balls went to the gloves of defenders much more often than where Baltimore positioned it's defenders. Chacin could have thrown the exact same pitches in 2018 with the same velocity and location and have had an ERA pushing 5.00 with teams like Balt, Phi, NYM playing behind him. These projection models have a really hard time with that.
  17. True Blue Brew Crew
    I'm sorry but this doesn't make a lick of sense.
  18. True Blue Brew Crew
    Tulo to the Yanks, cross him off the list.
  19. True Blue Brew Crew
    He's a Yankee now. No more need to worry if he's got anything left.
  20. True Blue Brew Crew
    Deja vu all over again. Maybe one year the complaints about payroll will last until they arrive in Maryvale and haven't done anything. But I doubt it.
  21. True Blue Brew Crew
    All it's illustrating is there's no reason for anyone to be pinning their hopes on Dubon being the answer to the Brewers 2019 middle infield needs. Lack of fan patience does not equate to the answer being in-house. It simply means they haven't signed their guy yet.
  22. True Blue Brew Crew
    And I respectfully agree with you. Too much stock is being placed in Dubon here. And that's with or without a healthy ACL. There was a time not long ago that Brett Philips was hitting savant compared to Dubon while at Colorado Springs together and we all saw how well Maverick has fared in the majors.
  23. True Blue Brew Crew
    I'm going to support this with no links or sources but McDaniels to Green Bay sounds like a foregone conclusion to me.
  24. True Blue Brew Crew
    In addition to striking out 36% less often, "basically nothing" is also a better right fielder defensively than Santana. Of course, pointing out that defense matters and putting the ball in play is a good thing likely= Stearns worshiper. Gamel - 90 games in RF the last 2 seasons (7 runs saved) Santana - 199 games in RF the last 2 seasons (-8 runs saved) Gamel - 11 OF assists the last 2 seasons (1757 innings) Santana - 5 OF assists the last 2 seasons (1645 innings) FYI, it doesn't hurt to do more than a cursory look at shallow batting stats.
  25. True Blue Brew Crew
    Yeah, this doesn't play well here. If you have something you wish to share, please feel free to do it. If not, please keep your 'info' to yourself. We won't tolerate this 'I have a secret' stuff here. I have repeatedly - throughout this thread and a few other pitching topics. I've gotten as specific as I can. I'm not David Stearns, Craig Counsell, Chris Hook, or Mark Dewey. Even Counsell can't spell out exactly how they'll line everyone up. It's not rigid every 4 day usage. That's the whole point. That's why when everyone keeps asking for specifics I say - Wait and See.
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