monty57

No, I'm not surprised that the clowns who run this organization, seemingly more interested in perception than production, decided to sit on their hands and put up the facade of "going for it" again next year. It saddens me, but doesn't surprise me. I think I've finally hit the point where I'm not going to schedule my activities around when the Brewers play, making sure to tune in every night no matter who they throw on the field and what boneheaded moves they make. It's not worth my time to watch the ship sink, while they try to con the fans into believing that the same group that has performed poorly in the past will suddenly be a playoff team. Mr. Attanasio, you brought some energy to a desperate team and have done a great job building revenue streams, but you really need to get out of player personnel decisions. Your primary goal is keeping fans in the seat, and you seem to believe that the fans are idiots who can be hoodwinked by whatever shiny bauble you dangle under their nose. Personally, I don't like being included in that group, but maybe enough people will drink the "next FA signing" Kool-Aid to keep the revenue rolling in. You'll need it in order to cover all the bad contracts you've signed. Mr. Melvin, your tenure has brought far less return than I expected when we had the young talent of guys like Fielder, Weeks and Hardy making their way onto the MLB field, and now the decisions you've made have added up to making the Brewers potentially the worst franchise in all of Major League baseball. Congrats on that. While the rest of the teams in our division seem to be well-managed (even the historically poorly managed Pirates and Cubs), our management is doing their best to drive the bus off the cliff. So, for the first time in at least fifteen years, the Brewers were playing last night, the game was televised, I didn't have a pressing obligation, yet I didn't watch it. It doesn't sound like I missed much, but I think that going forward, far less of my free time will be spent watching this train wreck which I've seen coming for a few years. I'm sure the Brewers organization won't notice I'm not tuning in as much, but it seems that this small gesture is the only thing I can do to "voice" my frustration. I, for one, just can't take it anymore. Maybe a hiatus will clear my head and let me return in the future to watch the Brewers as a "casual fan." I hope so, because I still love baseball. The realization that the mis-management of the Brewers has me in the position that for the next decade or so I'll have to hope the Pirates or Reds knock off the Cardinals and Cubs while the Brewers languish at the bottom of the division is disheartening. When you don't have "there's always next year" to fall back on, it's time to move on.

It's hard to see what you have in a player when he's only getting occasional playing time. Right now, Roenicke is trying to play the "hot hand" game with Gindl, Davis and Schafer. Unfortunately, that means the only way your getting a start is if you have a good pinch hit PA, which mean you'll start tomorrow while the other two guys sit, hoping that they get have a good pinch-hit PA so they'll get tomorrow's start. What a horrific way to "develop" someone, or even to learn something about them as a player. It'd be a lot easier to see what we have in Gindl, Davis and Schafer if two of them were playing everyday. Of course, if we don't trade Aoki or Gomez, then our 2014 OF will be Braun, Gomez, and Aoki, so really Davis, Gindl and Schafer are fighting for the bench spot next year, and two of them are likely going to start next year in AAA, with a lot of other OFs moving up the ladder behind them. All three of these guys are MLB players. Whether that's in a backup role or a starting role is yet to be determined, but they have a good shot of helping determine that for the rest of this season and next year. Unfortunately, they won't get that chance because we'll block them by not trading our tradeable commodities when we have the chance. OF is the one spot we have a lot of depth, so trading one or both of Aoki and Gomez makes a lot of sense. In my opinion, Aoki should be able to bring back a high-upside guy in the low minors - think something better than Delmonico (who I like). Gomez is having a great season and is young and under control for a few years, so he could bring back a couple of top prospects. Too bad we won't move either of them because Attanasio feels he has to try to maintain the perception that we're a good team.

Well, my belief is that if Lohse had Garza's contract, he could've been traded for a similar package to what the Cubs got for Garza. The rumor was that the Brewers were looking for talent equivalent to the first rounder they gave up (significantly less than what the Cubs got for Garza), and they apparently haven't been offered even that much. Therefore, I believe the contract has significant negative value in most other GM/owners' eyes.

cbssportsline today quoted Melvin saying that they're not moving Gallardo (this was before he left the game injured today), and they have one offer on the table for a pitcher, but it's not likely to lead to a deal. He didn't say who the pitcher was or whether it was a reliever or starter.

cbssportsline today quoted Melvin saying that they're not moving Gallardo (this was before he left the game injured today), and they have one offer on the table for a pitcher, but it's not likely to lead to a deal. He didn't say who the pitcher was or whether it was a reliever or starter.

Some less quantifiable aspects are: (1) Was the player "the final piece" that wins the team some championships. There should be some consideration for a player getting a big contract, not necessarily putting up the numbers maybe expected from the contract, but pushing the team over the edge to win a World Series or two. (2) Did the signing prevent the team from making other moves. Pujols' signing looks really bad, but the Angels seem to have unlimited funds, so while it is costly, it is not prohibiting the team from making other moves. Meanwhile, the Twins' signing of Joe Mauer seems to have prevented them from putting MLB talent around him. (3) Does having the player on the team sell tickets? This is probably an overblown notion, but people are paying to see Mariano Rivera this year, and paid to see Cal Ripken even in his declining years. For the most part, I think fans come out to see a team because they can win now, or because they think they have a good plan showing how they will win in the near future. I don't think most fans come out to see one good player on a bad team, but there are exceptions, and those exceptions make up for some of their salary through the extra revenue they bring in. Generally speaking, I think big money deals are very risky. Multi-year, big money deals are even riskier, and multi-year, big money deals that end with the guy in his mid-to-late 30's are almost doomed to failure. This can be mitigated somewhat if some championships are won during that player's tenure, while it is magnified on lower-payroll teams, who can end up with an untradable "name" player surrounded by a AAA squad. I far prefer extending core players when they're still in the pre-arby years. There's risk in that, but it's much less financially crippling.

Right Danzig, the problem seems to be Attanasio more than Melvin... But there's still a problem. I just hope Attanasio lets Melvin make some trades this season (for the best return and not for the best MLB ready talent) and keeps out of the team building aspect of the Brewers this offseason, especially when it is Scott Boras on the other end of the phone.

I think it's important to weigh the risk of holding onto Lohse until the offseason vs the potential of maybe getting a better offer. He could certainly get hurt or pitch worse in the second half, which could lower his value, or render him untradeable. Just see Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez as recent examples. Plus there's that age thing. If I were a GM looking at Lohse, having him the second half of 2013 is likely more valuable than having him either of the remaining two full years of the contract.

Honestly, why should the Brewers' asking price be any lower than what the Cubs just got for Matt Garza, or what the Brewers got last year for Greinke? Garza is not a better pitcher than Kyle Lohse, he is not more durable than Kyle Lohse, and he is a free agent in two months. Greinke had a phenomenal year for Kansas City, but otherwise, he's been really good, not amazing, and he was a free agent after 13 starts for the Angels. Exactly. Any difference in what we get for Lohse (if traded) vs what the Cubs got for Garza is the perceived negative value of Lohse's contract. Other than the contract, there is no reason we shouldn't get a Garza type haul. If we receive more than the Cubs got for Garza, then the contract will show to have had positive value in the trade.

Morris will be 25 for the entire 2014 season so if he gets the job in 2015 he will only be 26 That's old for a supposed good prospect. That our top hitting "prospect" is a question mark at age 25 or 26 is one of the things that has me worried about the future. At least Gamel was blocked by Fielder. If the Brewers think so little of Morris that they play Gonzalez in front of him this year and sign Hart to a one-year deal to block him next year, than he's not really a prospect, but more an organizational soldier who may get a position at the MLB level for a year or two if they're in rebuild mode, but will never be counted on if they think they're contenders. And to Attanasio, "contender" appears to be any team with the ability to win 70 or more games. Monty, I hope you're right about all that, but I worry. Me too. Attanasio's a smart guy, but for a guy who has made a good life for himself through in-depth analysis of a company's ability to repay debt, he seems to lose all his "business sense" with the Brewers and manages the team like a fan. To equate it to his "real life" job, it'd be like buying a GM bond in 2006 because you like one of their cars, but failing to realize their obligations have them on a path to bankruptcy. I'm leaning more and more to thinking that Melvin really is pretty good at finding young talent and playing "hardball" in trade talks in order to get it, but he's not allowed to do so, as Attanasio mandates everything be done to help the MLB team today. Hopefully, it's starting to sink in that we need more talent in the franchise as a whole instead of "name" players at the MLB level. Trading Greinke for a AA shortstop and two high upside minor league pitchers was a good step in looking to the future, but then we rushed Segura to the majors (which thankfully seems to have worked out) and signed Lohse to "win now." Letting Schafer/Davis/Gindl play, while trading K-Rod for a high-upside A-ball player instead of another Kevin Mench is good. I hope Melvin is really hammering the need to plan for the future, and hopefully Attanasio starts listening to him. We'll see.

We'll know a lot more about things in another week or so, but I think 2014 will be the year the Brewers let the young guys get a shot. I think Aoki will get traded, and we'll have an OF consisting of two rookies for the remainder of the season to tryout for the open starting spot next year (Gomez and Braun are obvious starters, so one open spot). Assuming his knee heals, I think Ramirez will be shopped in August and this offseason. Playing Francisco now seems to me to be a tryout to see if they can trust him as the starting 3B next year, with Bianchi as a capable backup/platoon partner/defensive replacement. Hopefully, this is the reason they're keeping Morris in AAA this whole season... they know he'll be the 1B next year, so they're trying out guys like Francisco and Bianchi to see what they're going to do at 3B next year. Now, if the Brewers sign Hart to a one-year deal this offseason, Hunter Morris had better start preparing for his career after baseball, because it would be obvious that the Brewers will never let him man first base for them. I don't expect that to happen. Next year will likely be an IF of Morris/Gamel at 1B, Weeks/Gennett at 2B, Segura at SS, Francisco/Bianchi at 3B. Hart will sign a one-year deal, but I doubt it's in Milwaukee. It's not out of the question, but I doubt we'll sign him to block Gamel, Morris and Halton, who are all MLB-ready 1B options. The question to me is not so much "will they re-sign Corey Hart." My question is "What the heck are they going to do with Gamel?" Will they offer him arby and pay him $1MM or so, or will they just give up on him and let Morris and Halton man 1B?

I like that Melvin went to the low minors to get a higher upside guy for K-Rod, and "the price of a first-round pick" sounds like he's willing to take a younger guy with upside for Lohse. I think that is realistically the only way we get a potentially good future MLB player out of Lohse. If we were to insist on a AA or AAA guy, we wouldn't get much upside, and we already have plenty of AA/AAA pitchers who can fill out the back of the rotation and bullpen in the future. The "any trade will be for 2-3 years from now" comment may hold true (fingers crossed).

So how does that logic work when pitchers like Sabathia/Grienke are handed out 23+mil/avg a season contracts? I honestly don't care what other teams do. I care about the Brewers, and I thought all along that the Brewers retaining of Sabathia, Greinke or Fielder would cripple the franchise. We can't afford $20-something million players, while still retaining enough talent around them to realistically compete. Look up the list of FA SPs this coming year. Phil Hughes will be the only one under 30. Yes, which is why the Brewers have to find a way to build a team where the stars come from in-house, and the only time they use free agency is to fill in the holes with role players. Generally in free agency you are getting players who are past their prime, but paying for what they have done rather than what they will do during the contract you will be obligated to pay. Big money teams greatly inflate the amount free agents receive, so teams like the Brewers have to find an alternative route. This is a big reason why the past decade's worth of decisions by the Brewers front office which has left us with one of the worst farms in baseball is so troubling. We have been, and are going to continue to, lose more talent every year than we can replenish from the farm or via free agency. We should've started trading away players before now, but we can't go back and re-do history, so all we can do is act in the present time to try to make a brighter future. Signing Lohse was not a move with this in mind, so hopefully we will be able to find a saving grace and get a desperate GM who will give up something of value for Lohse as well as paying most of all of the contract. As to the Brewers asking price, yeah I can see where they are coming from asking for a 1st rd. talent but realistically, that's absurd. You don't get 6years or more of having a 1st rd. talent for 2.4 years of aging Lohse. End of 1st rd/ early 2nd rd talent sure maybe. I agree, and this is what I have argued all along, so I don't see where we really differ. I'm not saying Lohse is untradeable. Someone will trade for him, I just don't expect a whole lot back. Getting the equivalent of a first rounder without having to pay a boatload of the contract is the best we could hope for, and if we get that, or something close to that, we should be happy. We aren't going to get a Garza-type return, and the entire reason for that is because the extra years on the contract has negative value. Otherwise, Lohse is pitching well right now, so why wouldn't teams give up as much as they gave for Garza?

I know that as a fan it's easy to say something to the effect of "that's two years away, so who cares if he sucks then," but you can't have this attitude as a businessman and hope to succeed. Successful managers have to consider the future in everything they do. If we'd have to pay him $11MM in 2015 to not pitch, that would mean that our $90-100MM payroll becomes a $79-89MM payroll for players who actually play. You absolutely have to consider how age will affect a player. No one knows for sure how Lohse will pitch in two years, but he is at the age where most good starting pitchers retire. Just based on the fact that very few starting pitchers make it to age 35 or 36 in the majors seems to make it very likely that Lohse's ability will drop off dramatically soon. This doesn't make him a bad guy or anything like that, it's just natural for humans to slow down with age. I don't think that hoping and praying that "your guy" is the one who defies the odds is a good strategy. I have never said that I didn't think he would be good this year. While many were talking of some Cardinal curse, or moving to a different park, or a myriad of other reasons he would be bad this year, I didn't agree. I figured he would pitch well this year, and he's lived up to expectations. It's next year and even moreso 2015 that worry me. Add in that I didn't think we had a playoff roster this year anyways, and that's why I didn't like the signing... not because of how he'd pitch in 2013, but that it really wouldn't help us much this year (there really isn't much positive value in adding a couple of wins to a losing team), and would hurt us in the future. The price for Kyle Lohse, for instance, involves the price of a first-round pick. The Crew gave up as first-rounder as compensation for signing Lohse as a free agent in the spring. I think that's the best possible outcome. They end up "even" with comparable value to what they gave up. It cost them somewhere around $11MM to end up "even," but talent-wise they're where they presumably would have been. Maybe the extra ticket sales that bumped up when he was signed add up to the millions we spent on him. I don't know, as the public isn't privy to that information. I'd guess that we'll probably end up a little on the negative side in the "best case" scenario of getting back "first round value" in trade. I think (just an opinion) that we will end up far in the negative if we don't trade him, so I'd certainly take "close to even," and hope that Melvin is able to pull some decent value back in trade while not having to pay $10MM+ in future dollars to get it.

I'm guessing that the biggest reason K-Rod is closing is to prove to other teams that he's still a closer, driving up his trade value. Henderson's not getting traded, and he's our closer the rest of the season and for the foreseeable future. Trading K-Rod, Axford (paid too much next year for the Brewers to keep), Gonzalez and maybe others will open up spots for "2014 auditions" in the 'pen for the rest of this season. With the pitching we have in the minors, we should be able to field a homegrown bullpen for years to come, keeping the cost down there. It'd be nice to not have to spend millions every offseason to patch the holes in the bullpen.

I think we need to see what's offered before making the decision one way or the other as to whether Gallardo or Lohse should be traded. This is more than I thought Garza would bring back in trade, so Melvin has to use that to his advantage. I've never expected much return from Lohse, but I would be very happy to be wrong. Bringing back any decent return while ridding ourselves of the final years of his contract would be great. Meanwhile, the guys telling ESPN that Gallardo is a #4-5 starter could be trying to get his value down, the same way GM's saying "I'd have to be wowed by the offer" may be doing that to bring the market up. A shrewd GM will know how to play the information-starved, rumor-mongering baseball media. Having a scout give an "anonymous bad review" to a reporter could be a ruse. Or, maybe not... maybe the consensus is that Gallardo's drop in velocity is a permanent thing. We'll just have to see how it plays out. If we can't find someone to trade to bring good prospects back, then I'm not very upbeat about the future for the Brewers.

Getting to 88 wins would require us to go 47-18 the rest of the way, or a .723 winning percentage. For perspective, the Cardinals have the best winning percentage in baseball this year, at .615, and the best winning percentage by a team of all time in the modern era is .716 by the 2001 Mariners. And I'd still say 88 wins is probably not going to be enough. There is no realistic shot of us making the playoffs this year, and I sure hope we don't approach the trade deadline from a front office standpoint with the mentality that that is still within range. Maybe we just need a pinup of Wendy Selig-Prieb in the locker room, taking off a sticker of clothing for every win... it worked in the movie Major League.

I don't think it's his $11M salary deterring teams. I think it's the $11MM per year for the next two years when Lohse is beyond the normal "lifespan" of a MLB pitcher. I think other GMs are very wary of age catching up to him, at which point they worry about having to potentially DFA him while they still owe him a lot of money. If Lohse was only signed for 2013, or maybe signed through next year, he'd have more value than he has being signed through 2015. That's on top of the question as to who owes the deferred money. But, I do think there is some credence to Attanasio starting to believe that we're going to contend next year. Throw in that his "trading chips" won't bring much back in return, and I would not be surprised if the only moves we make are trading away a couple of relievers who will be free agents after the year (and Axford who is cost prohibitive).

From that link: The only logical explanation I can give is, perhaps the Brewers have told teams Lohse is not available. ...or that teams don't want to be on the hook for two more years in Lohse's mid-30's. I hope the Brewers will be able to get something for Lohse, as their "trade chips" are all tarnished. I'm getting to the point that I don't think the Brewers will bring back anything useful in trade this year. They'll either salary dump some players or go into next year with a bad $100MM team.

This from MLBTradeRumors.com: The bottom line with Gallardo, according to a tweet from ESPN's Jayson Stark, is not a lot of enthusiasm for what two executives called a "4-5 starter" despite tossing six and 1/3 shutout innings against the Marlins last night. That saddens me, and seems to make it pretty likely that Gallardo will not be traded. I can't see Melvin trading him unless he gets a good return. If this is the case, hopefully Gallardo will show enough in the second half that teams will want to trade for him this offseason.

Not necessarily. With his contract, he's a perfect August trade candidate. Again, I could see someone like the Dodgers claiming him (if he's healthy) leaving the Brewers to either let him go for salary relief or pull him off waivers.

I'm curious on the statement that the Cubs have a lot of young talent on their MLB roster. Rizzo is young, but does he project as any kind of star or just kind of average-ish? Castro has talent, but he's extremely undisciplined as a hitter and very bad defensively, and he's not really improving. Barney is excellent defensively and can't hit. Samardzija, who's 28 btw, has his moments, but he's older than Gallardo and isn't really dominating. With the exception of Travis Wood, I look at their roster and wonder if anyone on it is going to be around when they theoretically start reaping the benefits of their farm system. A farm system that still is fairly weak on pitching talent. That read poorly. I meant they have a lot of young talent, some on their MLB roster (Castro, Rizzo) and more in the minors. It read as if I meant they had a lot of young talent at the MLB level, but that wasn't what I meant.

Some good points made here. Every team in the division has better prospects than the Brewers, and I don't think it's close, but there are chinks in other teams' armor. This may just mean: as the Brewers scrape the bottom of the barrel, who will fight it out for the top, but let's look at the other teams. The Cubs are past the downward swing of their big rebuild, and have a lot of young talent both on their MLB roster and in the minors. However, almost all of this is position player talent, with little pitching. Much like the Brewers seven or eight years ago, they seem to be about to enter a period where they'll be able to slug with the best of 'em, but will have to find pitching. They do have deep pockets, but will that be enough? When the Reds got their TV deal, they immediately made huge extensions to several players on their roster. At that time, I equated the moves to the Phillies when they extended guys like Ryan Howard. They knew they could be good for a while, but they had to know that by the end of those deals, they would have some big salaries going to some players deep in their decline years. They, too have good prospects, but will they have enough pre-arby guys on the roster to make their payroll work, or will they be forced to dump some salaries in a few years? I like how the Pirates are sitting, and I think they have a good chance to stay young and exciting for a long time. The rebuild is done, talent has arrived on the MLB level, with lots of talent still in the minors. To me, it will be interesting to see where they go from here. They're probably the best set up to do what I and some others here hoped the Brewers would do and cycle talent to remain competitive for the long run. But, they could always succumb to pressure and start trading away minor leaguers during their "window" that has now opened. Which direction will they go? I can't rate the Cardinals. Whatever they do just seems to work out for them. Trade someone and the guys you get become key pieces. Sign a washed-up guy and he becomes an MVP candidate. Extend someone, and they stay productive and healthy. Don't sign someone and they collapse. Draft someone and they'll reach their ceiling. Etc. They're well run, and we need to run our organization well to compete with them. I don't see the Brewers competing with any of these teams in the near future. If they finally decide to do some sort of rebuild, they'll still be running uphill for a while, because they're so far behind the rest, but at least we could get ourselves to a point where we could see where we could be competitive in the future.

From Steve Adams at MLBTradeRumors.com (coincides with PEM's post): The Red Sox have scouted both Alex Rios and Michael Young recently, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter). Cafardo adds that the team is likely to scout Jake Peavy's next few starts for the White Sox as he returns from the disabled list. In a separate tweet, Cafardo reports that the Yankees and Red Sox are both likely to scout Aramis Ramirez next week when he returns from the disabled list. Boston's in Rios is somewhat of a surprise, as both Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury have played well across the board, and Daniel Nava is hitting .288/.374/.429 while playing the outfield corners. Nava's OPS has declined in each month this season, however, and he grades out as a poor defender according to both Ultimate Zone Rating and The Fielding Bible. Rios would also present the Sox with a right field option if they wish to move Victorino to center field in 2014, should Ellsbury sign elsewhere (my own speculation). The Young connection makes sense in light of recent reports that they're looking at upgrades on the left side of their infield. There's said to be "intense" interest in Young from a number of teams, and the Phillies could probably move him even if they don't wish to fully commit as sellers. Ramirez hasn't hit for much power this season when on the field, but he's hitting .271 with a .359 on-base percentage, which should appeal to both teams. Neither has received much production at the hot corner. He's under control through 2014, but the $16MM salary that he is guaranteed next year could be prohibitive for interested parties. Earlier today it was reported that the Red Sox are also interested in Houston's Bud Norris, and last night the Pirates were also connected to Rios.

bcd80, I think the AL makes sense because of the DH, but even if healthy, his price tag still eliminates most teams. Boston is a potential, but aren't they (and the Yankees) still on a crusade to get below the luxury tax limit? I may be wrong on this and last year's trade with the Dodgers may have allowed them the breathing room they needed, but if they're still trying to cut payroll, they won't want to add a guy who'll add $16MM to the 2014 payroll. That's why I mentioned the Dodgers earlier. They, and maybe the Angels, seem to be the only teams with a "who cares" attitude about payroll these days. I think there's a possibility that the Brewers try to get Ramirez through revocable waivers, the Dodgers claim him, and the Brewers have to decide whether to pull him back or let the Dodgers have him for nothing just to get the contract off the books. It will be interesting to see what happens with Ramirez. Right now half of me believes we'll salary dump him and half of me believes he'll be in a Brewer uniform next season. I hope we get something of value for him, but I don't expect it.