monty57

But Shields is now exiting his prime, while Gallardo should be just entering his. The drop in fastball velocity could worry teams, which is why I hedged things with "Unless teams see a problem with yo going forward." If there isn't an issue, then the next few seasons should be Gallardo's best, which should be worth quite a bit in trade.

You just know Hart will be traded but it probably lands a bottom 100 prospect. Does that mean one of the worst 100 prospects in the minors? If you're saying that he'd get one of the guys at the end of the top 100 prospect list, I think you're way overvaluing what someone's going to give us for a couple of months of a guy coming off his second knee surgery in two years who will probably only have a month or so to "prove himself." I guess if he posts a 0.900+ OPS in that month we may get something, but I don't think we'd get much by trading him. If we could get someone in the 80-100 range of a top prospect list, I'd jump at the deal. The guy we'd get would immediately be our top prospect by a fairly wide margin. Now, seeing that we've just guaranteed $2MM for K-Rod when we could've just brought up Sachez at league minimum, it doesn't appear that saving a couple million here or there is that important to the Brewers. It's more important to give the fans the perception that we're going for it. Therefore, I think they'll hold onto Hart and lose him to free agency at the end of the year rather than trade him for salary relief. I think the most likely scenario is that we will make a minor deal, either trading someone like Gindl for a veteran, or trading someone like Gonzalez (either one) for a mid-tier prospect. Of the trades that could possibly bring something back, the most likely (but still pretty unlikely) would be Aoki, due to Schafer, Davis and Gindl being MLB-ready. In a distant second is probably Ramirez if we could find someone who would give us a talented prospect and eat his salary, but I highly doubt we'd trade him. I see almost zero chance of this last one, but trading Gallardo would probably be the biggest chance at getting a "blockbuster" return - possibly similar to the return the Rays got for Shields. Like it or not, the Brewers will not make a move if it could give people the impression that they're not "going for it" either now or next year. No matter how much reality proves that this strategy isn't working, we'll continue to pay a handful of aging players the majority of our payroll. I don't know the reason, but it seems more and more that it's coming from the top. Either Attanasio thinks the Brewers really can build a championship team by operating like the Yankees he grew up watching, or L.A. (where perception is everything) is getting to him after living there for so long, and he doesn't want to look "small market." Spending money on a guy whose name is known by the fans looks like we're trying to win, so we do it often. Trading away a "name" guy with team control for prospects looks "small market," so we never do it. Whatever the reasoning, our chances of infusing some much-needed young, cheap talent into the system are dwindling. Making some good mid-season trades could really help out our future, but I just don't see it happening.

I think the Brewers just like throwing away money. No one else wanted this bum, but we're going to give him $2MM lest... gasp... he might walk from his contract and pitch somewhere else. Remember, no one else wanted him.

With Hart's knee issues, I wouldn't make a Qualifying Offer on him much less sign him to a multi-year deal. His magical healing abilities went away as soon as Braun's name appeared on the list in Florida, and the doctor who gave him his second opinion said that he needed a more invasive surgery which would've kept him out all season. To me, he looks like a ticking time bomb that I would steer clear of. First base is a bit of a question mark next year, but we do have Gamel, Halton and Morris to fight it out, so hopefully someone steps up. As to adding someone like Morneau, I don't think we have the money unless we're able to get someone to take another contract off our hands. As long as we have the obligations we have, with most of our payroll going to a handful of players, we are going to have to accept the fact that we are going to have holes that will need to be filled by pre-arby guys or cheap vets.

For what it's worth, I flipped to the Cubs game last night, and they were discussing this and said "the Brewers offered Segura a contract extension and he's turned it down." I don't know if they know this as a fact, or if they were just reading that from the MLBtraderumors.com article, but I got kind of sad when I heard them say that.

I hadn't realized the Brewers don't have anybody with an ERA above 4.41 except for Axford. For the most part, the bullpen has been effective this season. I suspect frustrations from last year are influencing my frustration with the bullpen this season. Yeah, other than Axford (and Gonzalez early on), the bullpen hasn't been nearly as bad as some people make it out to be. I don't understand why Roenicke puts Axford in when we're up, and only uses Figaro in "mop up" roles, and I don't know why we brought Fiers up instead of Sanchez, but overall, I'm not overly worried about the pen. It's the starters that are stinking the joint up.

If only it were this easy. Pitchers are erratic, it is hard to fix. The Cardinals are playing way over their heads right now and will come down to earth at some point and will have their own struggles. It is a good rotation but it isn't a historic one like it has pitched so far. Is there a place to find what counts batters get to, and what pitch (and location) is thrown in different counts. I don't know if pitchers are getting behind more this year than they did in the past, as Gallardo has always thrown a lot of pitches to get hitters out (why he has a hard time going more than six innings) and in the minors Peralta has had control issues. If the pitchers are throwing the way they always have, then I'll agree with Ennder that a coach can't just tell the pitcher to throw strikes. If the pitching staff is indeed getting behind a lot more this season, then maybe there's a strategy (at least against some hitters/teams) of trying to get hitters to bite on "pitchers' pitches" early on. In the ever-expanding 3TO world, batters are more willing to let close pitches go by, so nibbling early could lead to them getting behind in counts and then in an effort to not walk the batter, they throw meatballs when they're behind. I remember Mike Maddux had a saying of "throw strikes early so you don't have to throw them late." While it may not work for everyone, if a pitcher has decent control, and the strategy is to throw strikes early, it would make sense that they wouldn't get behind batters as often and would keep their pitch counts down, allowing them to go further into the game. Of course, it would also lead to less strikeouts and more balls in play.

I agree with TLB. The likely scenario is that we will either be "close enough" that we'll pick up a minor piece (Hairston-type trade), or we'll be far enough out of it that we'll trade away a minor piece (one/both of the Gonzalezes and/or Betancourt) or we dump Hart for a minor prospect and $5MM in savings. As much as I might like it, I don't see much more than that happening. That said: Melvin's m.o. is to only trade away guys who are in their final year, which would mean Hart. Unfortunately, new news says that Hart may not be back until mid-June, which would only give him a month or so to perform prior to the trade deadline. A guy who is good, but not great, who is coming off two knee injuries with limited time to prove himself, who only has another few months of "team control" is not going to return much on the trade market. If we are out of it, we may just trade him for a minor prospect and salary savings, as we aren't getting anything for him if he leaves via free agency anyways. I could see the Dodgers making a bid for Ramirez again. The last I heard, their pitchers were outhitting their third basemen, so they may be desparate. They don't have a really strong farm system, but they have two Top 100 guys in Puig (OF) and Lee (RHP) who could make for an inticing offer, since we'd also save $25MM or so. If the Brewers think Khris Davis is a starting MLB outfielder, and if they're willing to move Braun to RF, Aoki could bring back a good package in trade. He's now a proven leadoff hitter signed to a cheap deal, with four+ years of team control remaining. The reasons we might not want to trade him away are the reasons he would be very tradeable. Again, don't see it happening, but with Schafer, Davis and Gindl all MLB-ready, it could make sense (we're not trading Braun or Gomez). There is a whole thread dedicated to Gallardo, and while I don't think Melvin will trade him, I think he could bring back a return similar to the Shields-to-KC deal. That would be a Top 10 and another Top 100 prospect, or probably a couple of Top 50 guys. He's our most valueable trading chip that has any chance of being traded (even if it's a very slim chance). There is also a thread regarding trading Lohse. I don't think there's any chance Melvin will trade him, and I don't think he'd bring back a lot in trade, but if we could get the value of the first rounder we gave up for him, I'd make the trade. If we think some of the minor leaguers are going to be MLB-ready next year, and we don't trade Yo or Lohse, then there is an outside chance that Estrada will be dealt either this season or in the offseason. He's 30 and has two remaining years of arby ($1.955 this year). Like most Brewers starters, he's been knocked around this year, but has a decent track record as a starter over the past couple of years, so he may bring back something in trade, and may be the "odd man out" if some of our prospects step us. Axford's not bringing back anything. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Melvin doesn't offer him arby next year to save the $7-8MM he'll cost in arbitration. Weeks is also non-tradeable at this point. We're going to have to play him and hope he "finds it," and if he doesn't, then eventually we'll have to cut bait, eat his salary, and start someone else. I guess there's a chance one of the catchers could get traded, but I don't think it'll happen. It's not a bad thing to have two MLB-caliber catchers on the team, and I don't see anyone knocking on the door that could even be a serviceable backup, which would allow us to trade one of Lucroy or Maldonado.

I don't understand why the Brewers decided to recall Fiers to pitch from the bullpen. He had one bad start to start the season, they put him in the bullpen and he pitched poorly, so they demoted him. He found a rhythm and pitched well as a starter in AAA, and was probably the best option to be called up when/if a starter is needed on the MLB team. Meanwhile, Jesus Sanchez (already on the 40-man) has pitched well from the Nashville bullpen this year. 11 games, 17.2 IP (so he can go multiple innings), 1.02 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 12K, 3BB. Why not keep Fiers in the AAA rotation so he can stay in his "comfort zone" as a starter, and remain stretched out, and simply bring up Sancez who is pitching well and is accustomed to pitching from the bullpen? Maybe Fiers' career will end up as a reliever, but for now why not let him remain a starter and use our relievers for the bullpen?

From CBSSportsline.com this morning: Corey Hart's return could be delayed Brewers first basemen Corey Hart, on the 60-day disabled list with a knee injury, said he isn't sure whether he will be ready to return once his stint on the DL expires May 30, MLB.com reports. Hart added that he hasn't experienced any setbacks but that his rehab is going slower than expected "It really depends. If I have one really good week, then I can go play [for a minor-league affiliate]," Hart said. "Or, it could take until the middle of June. I don't know until I can do quick movements without it hurting, and we're not there yet."

For trade value, how does Yo compare to Shields? Shields contract is for 2013 with a 2014 option, so the Royals get two seasons vs a potential 2.5 for Yo if traded in-season this year. Their numbers aren't that far off. Shiels' career ERA is 3.84 and WHIP is 1.21 with 1303 K & 354 BB in 1512.2 IP (7.75 K/9, 3.68 K:B, 2.1 BB/9), ERA+ 108. Yo's career ERA is 3.68, WHIP is 1.30 with 967 K & 370 BB in 962.1 IP (9 K/9, 2.61 K/BB, 3.5 BB/9), ERA+ 112. Shields is 31 (12/20/1981) while Yo is 27 (2/27/1986). Shields played in a tougher division, but Yo plays in a hitter's park. Unless teams see a problem with Yo going forward, then I think he should net at least as much as Shields did in trade, and Shields (plus Wade Davis) brought back Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi (BA #4 & #92 prospects). That's kind of like packaging Yo & Gorzellany for Shelby Miller and Kolton Wong. I don't think a top 10 prospect + another top 100 prospect, or two top 50 prospects is out of the question if we were to trade Gallardo this season or next offseason.

And the Cardinals have? In the last nine years, they've been to the World Series three times, winning two of them. And in two other seasons, they made it to the league Championship series. Six of the last nine years, they've been to the playoffs. They're not drafting in the top 5, yet their pitching prospects absolutely blow ours out of the water. Shelby Miller is better than any pitching prospect the Brewers have had in the last decade, including Gallardo. So how are they able to do it? Is it luck? Or maybe they just know pitching talent when they see it, and know how to develop it. This is kind my whole problem with how Melvin managed the Brewers. We had a once in a generation chance to get a lot of talent by getting high draft picks. We made good use of those draft picks and infused a lot of talent into the system. Once they made the major leagues, the team got a lot better. That's all good. Instead of looking long-term, the Brewers then decided that they would do everything possible to win in a short-term window. Always trading prospects for short-term veterans, and never trading short-term veterans for prospects, instead letting them walk in free agency or extending them to high-priced contracts that take them past their prime. Signing high-priced free agents, never giving opportunities to prospects unless they were absolute studs, or injuries forced their hand, drafting "high floor / low ceiling" guys, etc. To your St Louis example, the Cardinals always seem to have some guys like Descalso or Schumacher starting for them, but we felt we couldn't let someone like Taylor Green start if we wanted to have a chance of winning. That has led us to having a one-dimensional team with most of our payroll tied up in aging position players. The Cardinals seem to have a long-term approach, while our strategy seems to be to wait until the last minute, extend anyone who will extend, letting everyone else walk, and then patch the holes that are left in the roster either through free agency or by trading prospects for a short-term vet. When the Cards get a short-term guy, it's usually a low risk/high reward signing like Berkman, Furcal or Carpenter, where if it pays off, it pays off big (possibly leading to an extension), but if it doesn't pay off it doesn't cost them much. When they make a big splash (Holiday), they fit it into the long-term plan, extending him when they know they will lose Pujols. The Brewers trade the farm for "sure thing" guys who they'll only have for a short-frame, leaving the cupboard bare when they leave, or sign FAs who will be past their prime when the deal's in it's finals year(s), leaving them with dead money and bad players blocking younger guys. The only short-term/potential high reward signing I can think of for Melvin is Gagne, and for some reason he paid him $10MM, so it wasn't really low risk. The window strategy may give you a better chance at making the playoffs for a few years, but it leaves you with a depleted farm system and a lot of guys who are past their prime, but are guaranteed eight figure salaries. Pretty much where the Brewers are now. As I mentioned earlier, it isn't just pitchers the Brewers have had trouble drafting. Other than the "first wave" guys Jack Z drafted, we have a pretty poor history of drafting anyone good. It would seem that spending big money to steal a "draft guru" from a team that does well (like teams did to us taking all of Jack's guys) would be a good idea. But, we seem hell-bent on giving Seid a long leash to "prove himself." So if you can't draft well, you need to find other ways to stock the system, and the Brewers have done the opposite of that. At some point, we are going to need to make a change, and the longer it takes, the more drastic the change will have to be. Eventually, the "restock" turns into a full-blown "tear down the house and rebuild."

I thought that was the case, but Cot's said "FA." If there is an option, then barring injury, it's pretty likely it would get exercised, and it would also up the value if we were to try to trade him. Vegasbrew, I don't know what we'd get, but 1.5 (or 2.5 with option) years of Gallardo would be worth a lot more than half a year of Greinke. I'd think it'd start with a couple of top 50 prospects, including an MLB ready AAA starting pitcher. That does limit the potential trade partners pretty substantially. If they're in the playoff hunt, they're not trading MLB pieces, so they'd need to be a playoff team with top talent in the minors. Boston would be a fit, with Bogaerts (SS), Bradley (OF), Barnes (RHP) and Webster (RHP) all in Baseball America's Top 50. Arizona has Skaggs (LHP), Bradley (RHP), Eaton (OF) and Davidson (3B). I'll assume PIT, CIN and StL wouldn't work because of the inter-division thing, but they've got nice prospects. Washington has Rendon (3B), Giolito (RHP), Goodwin (OF). I don't know what it would take, but a package centered around Bogaerts (move either him or Segura to 2B) and Barnes or Webster with Boston, or Skaggs and Bradley from Arizona would certainly be worth looking into. Again, I don't think it's going to happen. (A) The Brewers should be close enough in the race that they won't sell (B) Melvin and Attanasio don't have a history of trading away guys prior to their last year of control © The Brewers are in a continuous "win now" mode, and relying on rookies (even top 10 prospects) to be at the top of the rotation doesn't fit the bill, and (D) it may be hard to find a team willing to give up as much talent as the Brewers would require for Gallardo. But it is kind of fun to think about how the team could look in the future if they did make the trade and got some top-flight MLB ready prospects.

we can assume that gallardo for the rest of his career is going to be that 3.3 to 3.8 era guy. I don't know that you can assume that. It's likely he'll be good through 2014, which is the end of his contract with the Brewers, but you can't guarantee it. Beyond 2014, we can't trade him, because he's not "Brewer property," so the question is whether 1.5 years of Gallardo at a salary of $8MM this year and $11.5MM next year is worth more or less than what you could get in trade. The obvious missing variable is what we could get in trade. I'd trade him if we're out of it this year, and we could get a huge return for him. you don't trade away that kind of productivity just because he can't go 7 or 8 most of the time. No, not solely because he "can't go 7 or 8 most of the time," but that is a mark against him. There are other good pitchers out there, and there are guys currently in the minors who will be as good or better than Gallardo. Would you trade him for a player who is younger, cheaper and better than him? I'm not banging on the table shouting "TRADE HIM," but I think you always have to be open to the option of trading someone if the right situation arises. It is entirely possible that a team in playoff contention could offer a package based around several top prospects. We would then be trading away 1.5 years of Gallardo for six years each from multiple "high upside" players and we would save around $15MM. There are all kinds of risk. There would be risk in going for potential in the prospects vs "proven" in Gallardo, but you also take a risk by holding onto Gallardo in that the players you aren't trading for could end up being really good, and you could end up losing Gallardo for nothing to free agency after 2014. It is also quite possible that we could be better as soon as next year if we get several pre-arby guys playing key roles, with some extra money to spend to fill in holes elsewhere. It's also possible that we wouldn't... what risk are you willing to take? I don't believe there is much chance Gallardo will be traded this year, because that's not how the Brewers under Melvin/Attanasio operate. Of course, looking at the current roster, I don't think anyone of note will be traded for anything of value, even if we're well out of the race. I think there's a much greater chance that we trade away prospects for a veteran or simply stand pat.

it certainly has as much talent as we had going into last year Going into last year, we had a starting rotation of Greinke, Yo, Marcum (assumed healthy), Wolf (Coming off a good year) and Narveson. We had nowhere near that talent level in the rotation coming into this season. Hart also came back from his knee injury last year in time to put in a full season, whereas he's going to miss two months to start this season. I think what he is missing is silly stuff like the untuckem or the HR celebrations or the closer with fiery antics etc. I agree with this. "Exciting" is in the eye of the beholder.

I don't know how a staff with a lot of youth could not be expected to get better. If the young pitchers aren't that good. Not saying that's the case, but just because someone's young doesn't mean they'll become good. Most of the Brewers' young pitchers project to be middle-to-back of the rotation starters or relievers, so we'll see how it plays out. Peralta is probably our best chance at getting a top-of-the rotation starter from the farm, but like most of the Brewer prospects with big arms, he needs more control. He should continue to improve, but there's no certainty that he will learn control. Burgos was never very highly touted, but I hope that he can learn a thing or two from Estrada and Lohse, since he seems to be physically similar to those two. None of the AAA starters (outside of Burgos) have really stepped up, although Fiers has pitched well since he was sent down. He's probably got a good shot of being the next guy called up when the need arises, and hopefully he can prove that last year wasn't a fluke. It's still early in the season, but Nelson, Burgos and Fiers seem to be the ones fighting to make the 2014 rotation. Of those three, Nelson is probably the most likely to have a decent MLB career as a starter.

Well put. I think some of the disappointment is because there is (or at least was) some belief that this team is as talented as some of the teams we've had in the past few seasons. We're not. The 2013 Brewers do not have nearly the talent of the 2011 Brewers, but I think we're more talented than the 2014 or 2015 Brewers will be, and since I don't think we'll see any Greinke-for-Segura-type trade this season, I am really hoping that we catch fire, have a little luck, and grab the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Nothing is going to happen for at least two months, and whether it seems to make sense or not, we aren't going to trade Gallardo unless we're well out of the race. If that is the case, then Gallardo is probably to most sensible player to shop, since Hart is the only meaningful player who will be a FA at the end of the year, and he won't have much value coming off two knee surgeries in two years. It's unlike the Brewers to trade a guy before his final year, but given the right scenario this season, it could make a lot of sense to shop Gallardo.

We had plenty of 'antics' under Macha and he was about as exciting as a brick Thanks, I got a laugh out of that. As to the topic, I guess it just depends on what a person thinks of as "exciting." We have an exciting team this year in terms of guys who can hit home runs and guys who can steal bases and pitchers who can strike guys out without walking batters. We also have some guys who have been dead spots who have kept us from winning consistantly. We've had one big good streak and two bad streaks, and while streaky teams (and players) can be viewed by some as exciting, they can also be a roller coaster of emotions that can drain the life out of you during the down times. We have enough talent on this roster to beat anyone, but also enough question marks to lose to anyone. Since many of the question marks are pitchers, I think we will probably have a good share of ups & downs this season. Sometimes, those streaky teams just take one positive stabilizing force. Maybe that can be Ramirez & Hart returning, maybe it's a Burgos or someone else coming from the minors to help settle down the rotation. We certainly aren't out of it, and could very easily remain in playoff contention all year. I went into this season figuring we'd be a .500-ish team that with a little luck could snag a wild card spot. I promised myself I wasn't going to get too excited one way or the other, but rather was going to enjoy watching to see how some of the young guys did. Segura is playing beyond anyone's expectations, Gomez is making the extension look like a really good deal, and some of the bullpen guys are impressing (Axford's really the only guy I don't like seeing on the mound). Meanwhile, some of the young starters (MLB & minors) have gotten off to a rough start, but Burgos has been a pleasant surprise since being called up, and hopefully he can continue pitching well.

There are plenty of guys as good as Hart in our system. I hope you're right. Hart's actually got a pretty good bat, and 30 HR guys aren't easy to find. Morris was supposed to be our most MLB ready bat in the minors, and after a couple of so-so years followed by one good season last year, he's off to a slow start again this year. I really, really want him to succeed, as that would be a big benefit to the future of the Brewers, but he's 24, so he needs to step it up soon. There's still time, and he may have the potential to become as good as Hart, but he's not a sure-thing. For point of reference, Hart had a .792 OPS in a half-season in Milwaukee when he was Morris' current age after posting minor league OPS of .698 (rookie league at 18), .937, .884, .807, .827, .913, and .951. Gennett is showing that he's probably our most MLB ready bat right now, and if the Brewers could find someone to take on Weeks' salary, I'd do it and bring up Gennett. That said, he's probably not going to be an above-average MLB bat (especially if you're comparing him to Hart). He looks like he'll be someone who is a good role player while he's cheap, holding a high-.200's BA with a low-.300's OBP with little power. Khris Davis may become a decent MLB bat, but we don't have room to play him, so barring a Braun injury (which would eliminate any playoff hopes for the team) or the NL adopting the DH, we'll never find out. I really wouldn't count on anyone from Huntsville or Brevard County to become even an average MLB bat. There are some intriguing bats in Wisconsin and while I hope they play to their potential, they're a long ways off. So, I think the better statement is that we have a few bats in the system who have the potential to hit like Hart if they can put it all together, and a few more who have the potential to start for a few seasons while they're cheap. What we have a lot of are guys who could spend some time in the majors as a bench player or someone who gets called up to fill in for an injured player. Our minor league position players are very thin right now. We're better (or at least more MLB-ready) on the pitching front, but other than Nelson in AA, most of the guys haven't taken that next step to force the Brewers to take notice. Right now, the best of them look like they could have some success at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen. I hope this changes for the better, as I hoped that by the upcoming offseason we would have the wonderful problem of having "too many" MLB-ready starting pitchers.

The Brewers have the reputation of being able to draft and develop position players and not pitchers, but if you take out the few years we had Jack Z, have we really been good at drafting position players? Really, other than the few seasons where Jack Z was in charge, we've just been pretty pathetic overall in drafts for the past 30 years or so. That's probably a big reason we've had two playoff appearances in that time frame. But, as others have said, I don't care how we get them, we just need to find a way to continually have more good, young, inexpensive players so we can be less dependant on expensive guys on the wrong side of 30.

Ahh H&T, always tactful :-) Do a quick search and see how many starting pitchers make it to age 35 or 36. It's not a lot, and many of them are headed for the Hall of Fame, throw left-handed, or throw a knuckleball. There seems to be a big drop off from the early 30's, where pitchers seem to be able to remain productive to the mid-30's, where most can't. Expecting Lohse to still be good for the next couple of years is to expect him to defy age. It's not an impossibility... I just wouldn't expect it. I doubt many teams would expect it either (which is why they didn't want to give him a 3+ year deal), hence my statement that the third year would have negative value in the trade (they'd get more in trade if the obligation were for one less year and $11MM less dollars). Of course it's not a certainty that he'll have negative value in year three. Lohse may be one of the handful of pitchers who remain successful at that age. But with age factoring against him, and the fact that he will be owed $29MM of his $33MM, his value would be diminished. The receiving team wouldn't get what should be his best year, but they'd owe 88% of the contract. But, what I can't get is why you feel that teams wouldn't sign him to a 3 year / $33MM deal because they were worried about giving up a first round draft pick, but you expect them to give up more than the value of a first round pick when they would get him for a 2.3 year / $30MM deal. Have his six starts in Milwaukee made that much of a difference?

Yeah, I think we're going to have a lot of love/hate threads this season. The team probably doesn't have playoff-level talent, but fans tend to believe the hot streaks are the norm, and when cold streaks happen, someone needs to be blamed. We've probably got two #2 starters and three #5's, and we've been starting backup SS's all over the field. If not for a few guys like Segura, Betancourt and Gomez playing over their heads, this team would be lost. Those guys will cool down, while other guys will heat up. That's baseball, and Roenicke has as much control over Weeks' slow start as he has over Gomez and Segura's hot starts. Prior to the season, I figured this was around a .500 team that would fight with the Pirates for 3rd/4th in the division. I'll stand by that and be really happy if the Brewers are in the playoff race as the season progresses, rather than getting emotional when they play to their talent level (good sometimes and bad others).

Splitter, I agree with you. I wasn't trying to say they'd trade him, because I don't believe they will. If they were 40 games out at the deadline, they wouldn't trade Lohse this year. Since Hart has probably lost most of his value due to his bad knee(s), they really don't have anyone they'd trade even if they're out of it. I think the only trade likely this year will be some minor piece like Gonzalez or Lalli if they're in a situation of either DFA'ing them or trading them. It's probably much more likely that the Brewers trade away prospects to get a veteran "rental" than it is that they trade away a veteran for young players.

Right, teams realized that the third year has negative value, so in a trade, the last year of the contract would have negative value. Plus, the deferred money is all negative value. The only way to eliminate this negative value is to add money to the deal. Then, you're not just looking at the market for Lohse, but also the market for money which of course is pretty strong. I'd guess that the Brewers could get some pretty solid prospects from a team if they were to offer them $18MM... forget about adding a player. So yes, if the Brewers were willing to eliminate the negative value of the third year and the deferred money, they would probably be able to get a return greater than the value of a first round pick. But that seems like a pretty expensive half-year rental of a free agent. They could've kept their draft pick and signed him for $1MM or so, and instead they end up paying around $20MM and end up with similar value to their first rounder they gave up, meaning the half year of Lohse cost the Brewers around $19MM.