monty57

Yeah, I don't like anything dealing with the knee. Good to hear the Brewer trainers don't think there's any damage, but they won't know until the swelling goes down. I'll keep my fingers crossed. With Hart out to start the season, our offense would be pretty weak if Ramirez had to miss any time.

I figured those were the most relevant to the pick we'd be losing. Be my guest in looking up the other 12,000 or so players drafted in those years and picking out which ones you'd rather have over Lohse, but I suspect the hit rate decreases greatly from the 30-33% I found narrowing the search to comparable picks. If you're more confident in all our younger options than Lohse, then it's obviously a waste to sign him, draft pick or not. But between feeling fairly confident in Lohse having at least an "okay" season and the likelihood that one or more of our young pitchers won't turn in a successful 2013 campaign, I'm okay with a Lohse acquisition to solidify the rotation a bit. I don't know that it would be the "right" move, I just don't think it'd be the disaster people are making it out to be. Now if they sign him for 4 years at $40+ mil... *vomit soup* Question #1 is whether the draft pick we'd give up would be worth more than Lohse. Your quick analysis leads you to believe that there is about a 33% chance that we would lose more from the pick than we'd gain from Lohse. In some cases (like Hamels), we would lose substantially more. Question #2 is whether Lohse will be better than the guy he's replacing for both this year and next year. As others have pointed out, while he's had good years the past two years, there is some belief that he got a little "lucky," and even if you don't believe that, he would certainly be moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park, and his flyball tendencies may not play well at Miller Park. This year, we're already looking at six pitchers for the rotation, so his addition would mean that two of Fiers, Rogers, Narveson and Peralta would start the year out of the rotation. Next year, we will have a whole bunch more guys who will be ready to step into the MLB rotation. Many of these guys project to be around middle-of-the-rotation types, which is probably what we should expect out of Lohse. Question #3 is how much we'd have to spend, and could that be put to better use. All in all, I think you'd be giving up more than you're getting from Lohse. I agree it wouldn't be a "disaster," but the Brewers need to exercise caution in the free agent market. Spending 10% or so of your payroll over multiple seasons while giving up a middle-of-the-first-round pick for a guy who may not be a better option than what you already have would not be exercising caution.

The "last spot" on the position side, which unfortunately is centered around our starting 1B, will be interesting. If Morris wins the temporary 1B job out of spring training, will they keep three backup infielders in Gonzalez, Bianchi and Green, or will they opt for a fifth OF, either through a late veteran pickup or a "youngster" in Gindl or K Davis? If they go with Gonzalez/Green at 1B, then it makes sense to have Gonzalez, Green and Bianchi (or Murphy/Crosby) on the roster, but they'd still have an opening on the position side where we could fit that 5th OF, as Morris would be in AAA. When Braun leaves for the WBC, Gindl and Davis will get a chance to shine, and right now it looks to me like one of them has a pretty good chance of breaking camp with the team. I think that Morris will win the job or not based on his own merit. Green, Bianchi, Gindl and Davis are fighting over the remaining two or three spots, with Murphy and Crosby on the outside looking in. As to pitching, after reading that we get an extra year's service time if we keep Peralta in AAA through late May, I'm leaning towards starting with a rotation of Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Narveson, Rogers. Axford, Henderson, Badenhop, Gorzellany and Gonzalez are pretty much locks for the bullpen, with Kintzler and Olmsted probably holding the inside track for the final two spots. To the 40-man, Melvin is probably holding Gamel's spot for Morris. If he doesn't step up and claim the spot, it leaves an opening to grab a veteran late in spring training as another team tries to slip someone through.

Baseball Prospectus projects the Brewers to go 78-84 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php A "complete implosion" by the starters would certainly lead to a pretty poor season. I don't think our worst case scenario is 77 wins... that's the low end of our "expected performance." As Ennder and others have said, this season has a high variance due to an untested and untouted starting rotation. I believe we're probably around a .500 "talent level" team. If our starting pitchers don't play well, it will be a long season fighting with the Cubs for last place. If they prove that the second half of last season was no fluke, we could be in the playoffs. The optimist in me wants to believe this is a playoff team, while the realist in me knows not to expect it.

I posted this in the Peralta thread, but it's worth noting here as well. MLBtraderumors wrote that the Brewers will gain an extra year of service time on Peralta (through 2019) if he's in the minors until late May, and he'd no longer be a "Super two" if he stays in the minors until mid-July. In other words, if we start the season with a rotation of Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Narveson, and Rogers, with Peralta in AAA for around two months, we would control Peralta through his age 30 season. I think an extra full year of his prime may be worth more than two months at the beginning of this season. In late May, he could come up and replace whichever pitcher needs replacing.

While that's true, it's really true of any player in the arby/pre-arby process. For example, Fiers will be something like 31 when he hits arbitration, and there's no guarantee that he'll be worth a couple million at that time. Will we be willing to pay over a million a year to Green if he hasn't been more than a utility guy? Injuries could hit anyone, but simply due to age regression, Aoki will be coming off a $1.5MM season, so 80% of that would be $1.2MM on a one-year deal with no future guarantee. Not chump change, but not more than a normal veteran backup would get. I'd guess that if international FAs are treated like all other arby guys that he would get around $2-3MM in year 1 arby, so even if we don't want to get into the "expensive" arby years, we could easily get an extra year or two. Plus, this adds a lot of trade value if someone like Roche lives up to his potential. Does anyone know how arby has worked for international FAs in the past? It would be interesting to see how big a jump they normally get, as they're not your ordinary "year 4" players.

Well, that's really good news. I thought we only had him through 2014 (with the option).

I don't know how much this will play into the decision, but MLBtraderumors reported that the Brewers will retain Peralta through 2019 if he stays in the minors until late May. I think it may be worth it to start the season with Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Narveson, Rogers in the MLB rotation with Peralta in AAA for two months if it means we get an extra year out of him during his prime. He'd have to stay in the minors until mid-July in order for him not to be a "Super two" after 2015.

I thought we all collectively took the "Never Again" vow after Suppan left town. Lohse would be a direct violation of that oath. Yes, but every spring, the phrase "Hope springs eternal" pops up. When emotion and not logic is used to make decisions, bad things can happen. Somewhere, somehow, someone will think that Lohse is "that last piece" to a World Series run. Things like age regressions, budgets, and draft picks will be forgotten, Lohse will get a multi-year deal and the Cardinals will get a draft pick. In a year or two, fans with high expectations and short memories will be left wondering why they have to pay for a washed-up Lohse, and will wonder why their farm is weak.

Record: Around .500 Division: Fighting it out with the Pirates for #3/4 in the division Position player outlook: Segura will cement himself as a solid (but not spectacular) MLB starting SS. Braun will of course remain dominant. Aoki will be a solid leadoff man. Gomez will have around a .285 OBP, but will hit a lot (for him) of HR and steal a lot of bases in an effort to push up his "counting stats" in a free agent year, prompting Melvin to trade him at the deadline and allow Schafer to start. Schafer will hit the ground running and have a solid second half, leading to a debate as to whether he's "proven" himself or whether we need to find a free agent next offseason. Hart will miss the first 1.5 months and return with good power and no speed. He'll have good numbers, but they'll be somewhat subdued as he rushes back and tries to play through injuries in his walk year. Morris will have a down spring, so he'll start in AAA with Gonzalez our starting 1B. Within the first week, everyone at Brewerfan.net will have torn all their hair out, and within the first month, "casual fans" will be screaming for change at 1B. Ramirez will put up good numbers, but not as good as last year. Weeks will have a solid season, which will be cut short by some odd injury around late July or August. Lucroy will show that he is a top-tier MLB catcher, while Maldonado will show that he is a defensive whiz with a good enough bat to be a solid MLB catcher. Pitcher outlook: Gallardo will have a solid season, but won't put up enough wins for the "talking heads" to give him any credit. Estrada will continue to show that he's a capable MLB starter. Fiers will have a "sophomore slump" as hitters now know what to expect from him. Peralta will dominate in some games, and have some games where he blows up. At the end of his season, his numbers may not be what we like, but he will have shown growth towards eventually becoming a #2/3 starter. Rogers will have a down spring, so he'll be sent to the bullpen in favor of Narveson, who will show that he is what he is... a decent #4/5 starter. Rogers will perform well enough in the bullpen that the Brewers will decide that is where he will spend his career. The bullpen overall will be better than last year, which has to be almost a given, but bullpens overall are a crapshoot, so I'd say we'll have an "average" bullpen, with Olmstead being the biggest positive surprise. Axford will pitch well enough to keep his role as closer, but leaves us with a big question mark as to whether he's worth the escalating arby price tag going forward. World Series: One of the teams with a multi-billion dollar TV deal vs one of the other teams with a multi-billion dollar TV deal.

Exactly. It is certainly the position which requires the least athletic ability, but like any position in MLB, any miscues are unacceptable. I think most competent MLB defenders could learn to play first, but I wouldn't want to throw someone out there without giving them time to practice. First base is something like third base without the throw. You get a lot of shots at you, which OFs aren't accustomed to, you need to know where to go on every play (backup, cutoff, etc), and most importantly, you need to be able to scoop throws in the dirt, which is something no other position really sees on a regular basis. It's great to see a "real defender" go to first and make diving stops on baseballs, but that is completely offset if they routinely let throws in the dirt skip by them. Again, most players at the MLB level are so good at every aspect of the game that first base should be "easy" for them to learn. However, there is a reason Red Sox nation gets their panties in a bunch every year during interleague play when Ortiz may have to take the field. A first baseman who can't field bad throws will give away a lot of runs as outs are turned into errors.

C'mon, you can make better than a strawman arguement. In 2010, all I was complaining about was Loe being the setup man. As to last year, my reference to Hart was that we should have looked to trade him mid-season, as we could probably have received a good return from him. The only person I wanted to trade prior to the season was Morgan once Aoki was signed. Going into last year, we knew we were losing Greinke (being realistic), Wolf, K-Rod and Marcum when the season was over, so I thought we should have a "quick trigger finger" if we started out bad. Not having a "quick trigger finger" lost us the opportunity to trade Marcum, and with hindsight 20/20, not trading Hart basically left us with damaged goods going forward. Heck, if I remember correctly there were even teams willing to give us something (even if it was just salary relief) for K-Rod and Wolf until they completely imploded in the period before Melvin finally agreed to trade Greinke, at which point we couldn't pay people to take them. I'm happy that Melvin finally made a decision to trade a veteran before he walked, and what we got for Greinke will help us going forward. I wish that would shine some light on the notion that trading veterans for youth can be a good thing, and shouldn't always be looked at in a negative light. On paper, we are much less talented going into this year than we were going into last year. That said, if everything goes right we have a small chance of making the playoffs now that they've been watered down, so I will cheer for that chance. I only look to trade players when it seems to make sense to trade them, and with Hart down, only Gomez would make any sense to trade. I don't know how much value Gomez would have in trade, so I'm not too worried if we don't shop him. Even if we're out of it mid-season this year, there probably won't be much worth trading, so I don't think I'll probably ask for anyone to be traded mid-season this year. I'll just be a little depressed when Hart and Gomez walk for nothing after the season, and I'd be more depressed if we extended the walking time bomb that is Corey Hart's knee. All I'm saying is that we are sliding downhill from a talent standpoint. Does anyone argue that we are more talented "on paper" this year than we were last year or the year before? Since we don't really have any young players who project to be stars in a few years, and we are going to lose the guys who have been our stars for the recent past, can anyone make a good arguement as to how we are likely to be better in two or three years than we are today? People throw stones at me, but no one will give me a realistic plan as to how we are going to be better in a few years than we are today. I want the Brewers to be good. I worry that they are in the waning days of their "window," and it's looking like we're set up for an extended period of down years. I'm optimistic by nature, so please someone lay out why I should be optimistic that the next 5-7 years will be as good or better than the last 5-7 years. Just note that my optimism has to be based in reality. So, in my most optimistic tone I can muster, Hart is a Brewer for this year, and he should hit well when he returns from injury. We should have a good offense this season, and we will get to see what we have from our inexperienced starting rotation. If all goes well, this should be a fun team to watch, and I look to enjoy the 2013 season. As long as we don't think beyond that, then we will be A-OK.

Boy that's a good point. Wouldn't it be nice if Melvin had to make the decision to shut Rogers down in August due to him hitting his innings limit after a good season? Wouldn't that make all the years of waiting worthwhile?

Boy Monty.... I don't think Hart gets close to what ZG got in a trade. I could be wrong on that but I really don't think Hart gets a ton back in return. If someone was going to offer us 3 prospects, including one that is highly rated, I'm sure DM would take it, but I doubt there were any clubs looking to do that last year. I think DM will look to move those two this year but I don't think you try to trade them until their final year of a contract/control. It's also easy to look back and say "that was the perfect time," prior to an injury. That's stuff you can't predict. I was calling for trading him then... it didn't start after he got hurt. But yes, I think that 1.5 years of an All-Star caliber 1B/corner OF is equivalent trade value to 0.5 seasons of a top pitcher. As far as moving him this year, who is going to trade for a guy who has had the same injury two years running, and who was recommended to have a different surgery (one which would've cost him his final contract year) that would've better corrected the injury, but chose to go with the surgery which would allow him to play? He will be tradeable, but he's damaged goods, so his value is now very low and will be even lower when he only has a couple of months left in his contract. I certainly wouldn't look at adding years to Hart's contract, as I think he'll almost assuredly need the season-ending surgery at some point. As to Gomez, Melvin doesn't seem to be looking to trade him now, and his value drops significantly after the season starts, as the receiving team loses the ability to make the qualifying offer. This team won 83 games with one of the worst bullpens in franchise history. This was on top of a 96 win campaign the year before where the pen was nearly flawless. To criticize them for going for it in 2013, seems rather odd doesn't it? I criticize them for never doing anything that may look towards the future, instead making every decision based on making "right now" a little better. At some point, that is going to lead to ugly times, which I think are starting, and will really hit in a season or two. I'm not really down on this year, although I think we're significantly less talented now than we were 12 months ago, when we were less talented than we were 12 months before that. It's that trend that I worry will continue, so it's the not-too-distant future that worries me. So the Brewers only control Braun and Lucroy beyond the next few years? Those are pretty nice pieces by the way. You assume by looking at the current makeup of the system that they'll only be able to replace the lost guys with marginal major leaguers? That's quite a stretch having just seen them add a valuable guy like Aoki. Who would have anticipated 2 years ago the leadoff hitter and starting RF would be someone named Aoki? He wasn't in the system anywhere. Do you consider him marginal talent? I don't. There will be 3 drafts between now and the end of Weeks' contract for instance. Yeah you do have to overpay some to get FA talent, but done selectively, when you don't have a lot of long term deals tying up money, it's very doable to fill a spot here and there as they did with Ramirez. I do like Braun and Lucroy. I also like Segura and Peralta, although they both have to prove themselves worthy of an extension before they'll get one. However, they aren't enough for a contending team. Braun has been here during the good times, and we don't have anyone else who measures up to the talent we've lost and will continue to lose over the next couple of seasons. If we replace $10 bills with $5 bills, we'll be poorer. We can only have 25 men on the roster, so we can't make up for quality with quantity. Our "core" has gotten older and more expensive, and that has mandated that it has gotten smaller, as we can't afford to pay many guys eight figure salaries and we don't have pre-arby/league minimum stars worthy of long-term deals. In a perfect world, we'd have 1-2 players every year worth giving a "Lucroy-style" deal to. In the recent past, we've only had Lucroy. When you look forward (looking at the whole system), and only a few players are "locks" to make significant contributions to your roster more then two years out, then I'd say we don't have a "core" to build around. I really hope some of our prospects step it up and become "core" players, but we don't have anyone we can really bank on. It's a far cry from several years back when we could say "we'll be better when Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, etc get here." As to implementing a stretgy based on finding more guys like Aoki, Melvin sounded shocked when his lowball bid landed Aoki. Actually, he had to find tape on the guy, as no one from the Brewers had ever even seen him play, so I wouldn't assume that will be a continuing trend. At the time of the signing, I argued that Aoki should be pencilled in to replace Morgan, and Morgan should be shopped since his trade value was at a peak after his 2011 season... another lost chance at getting something of value for a redundant piece. I'd be happy if Melvin had a strategy of finding good international players to complement the roster, but it's not there. In the end, that's really all I'm looking for, some type of trend that will show that we will improve into the future. The trend I see is one where Melvin/Attanasio will never trade a marketable player until they've given up on the last season of that player's contract, and they will almost never give up on a season. Therefore, most tradeable players will never be traded, and instead will leave with little-to-nothing in return, as Melvin once again makes a token offer that no star player (CC, Prince, Greinke) has yet to sign. If we want to sign a star, we need to do it early in their career when the team has a lot of leverage, and right now, we don't have star players at the pre-arby stage or in the minors. So again, I'll ask again where the star players are going to come from. We won't be competitive without them, we don't have them in the minors, we can't afford them on the free agent market in the capacity needed to replace those that are leaving, and we won't trade MLB players to get them. We've gotten spoiled by having a big group of talented players arrive around the same time, and that group of players has either left or is nearing the exit. With those talented players, we could pretend we were "the big boys" for a few years and implement a strategy that is not sustainable in a smaller market, but is more likely to leave the team in a decade-long "rebuild." We need to find a sustainable winning strategy for the market we inhabit. I'm not a big believer in the "don't worry, something will turn up" way of doing business.

Yes. Think of it from a team-building perspective. We are where we are, and the contracts that are on the books are on the books. We are going to lose a lot of talent over the next few seasons. These (in addition to guys we've already lost) are the guys who made us a competitive team over our recent history. These guys need to be replaced with equal or greater talent, or we will no longer be a competitive team. We do not have the prospects to replace them. We do not have the prospects to trade for players to replace them (i.e. Greinke-style trades). We do not have enough young, high-end guys on the MLB roster to sign a bunch of "Lucroy-style" deals to keep people around at a reasonable price long-term. Segura and Peralta are the only potentials I see, but they're not sure things like Braun, so Melvin will probably wait a while before offering. The Brewers will have some money as more contracts fall off the books. However, contracts are going up. Guys like Gomez will cost $12MM/year, while stars are making well over $20MM. If we have Braun, Lucroy and a bunch of fringe MLB guys (what most scouts think our farm will develop), does anyone think we will have enough money to "buy" a competitive team through free agency? Since this thread is about Hart, I'll use him as an example. We could have traded him mid-season last year when we traded Greinke. With 1.5 seasons remaining, and him hitting like an All Star, we could have probably received around what we got in return for Greinke, only Melvin wouldn't have had his hands tied looking for the "best package built around a SS," so he would have been able to simply look for the "best package." That one move would've really helped our future, but it would have veered from the mantra of never trading away productive players while they're productive, and the Melvin/Attanasio combo isn't ready to make that change. Until and unless that decision is made, I figure we'll have about two more years of so-so Brewers baseball and then we're in for a long period of rebuild. Or worse, Melvin/Attanasio could continue to try to "compete" at the MLB level by trading prospects and spending in free agency, making us look like a slightly better funded version of the 1990's Brewers. But we didn't move Hart because Melvin/Attanasio wanted to "go for it" again in 2013. Now the Brewers are paying for him to not play for a month or two, will probably not be able to trade him now that he has two straight years of the same knee problem (which again he seemingly had taped together rather than repaired - which would have cost him the season), and will be in a tough position of whether or not to make a qualifying offer to someone who may need season-ending surgery as soon as he signs the offer. The gradual decline will continue as Gomez and Hart will be lost for nothing at the end of the season, and we'll repeat the process next offseason with Ramirez and the following year with Gallardo and Weeks. I can already hear the cries of "we can't waste Gallardo & Weeks' last year, we have to back the truck up to sign _____ as a free agent," and that will be the end of our "being in good financial shape."

But don't most teams have guys who aren't in the top 100 because of some question marks? What worries me is that the Brewers are getting the same results from everyone who rates them. Some raters like "raw" high ceiling guys, while others like "more polished" MLB ready guys. Some like traditional scouting while others like reading stat lines. Whatever their system for rating players, they're all coming out and saying that the Brewers system is filled with fringe major leaguers. I don't believe there is some big conspiracy against the Brewers, and I have to believe that most of these guys have some clue as to what they're doing. Therefore, I think it's pretty optimistic to believe that everyone is just missing the boat and that the Brewers have tons of talent that just isn't being noticed. Sure, some players may break out, but that could be said about any system. Obviously I hope it happens for the Brewers, but it's not a good strategy to hope and pray that your guys defy the odds, and that seems to be where we're sitting right now.

Sure, minor league games are fun to watch, but really all I care about in regards to the Brewers' farm system is how it will help the team in the future. At this point, I don't see any way (through graduating players to the majors, or through trading prospects for MLB players) that our farm will allow us to replace the MLB talent we are going to lose in the next few seasons. If we replace our current talented players with less talented players, logic would dictate that we will not be as good in the future as we are today, and we're probably not a playoff team today. The only way I see us being competitive in the not-too-distant future is for us to trade some aging, expensive MLB pieces for younger, less expensive, but still talented pieces. It doesn't seem that the Melvin/Attanasio combo is capable of doing that.

What seems to be getting lost is that while Gamel was lost for the season, Hart will probably only miss around a month. Over the course of a month, any of Green, Morris or Ishikawa could be great or terrible... it's a month. Therefore, I don't want to sign a "meh" player. Green and Morris should be fine at 1B (with Morris getting most of the starts) until Hart returns, at which point Morris will go back to AAA, and Green can back up 1B, 2B & 3B. Once Hart comes back, all Ishikawa would do is pinch hit... at least Green plays all over the field. At this point, it's looking like Green is destined to a utility role, so why not just put him there.

I think this certainly opens up a spot on the roster for Green, who was kind of "on the bubble" prior to this. He fits in as a bench player who can man 1B, 2B and 3B, and he should definitely get a long look at being the primary 1B until Hart's back. However, I think this could be a good way to get Morris initiated into MLB play. He's coming off a good campaign, and he would enter with limited pressure, as he knows that he's a temporary fill-in until Hart is back. He could get a taste of the big leagues and then go down to AAA to work on things to prepare for a potential full-time starting gig in 2014. For Morris' (and therefore the Brewers') future, this would probably be the best way to go. I do share the concern about this weakening the 2013 bench. It may make sense to find a corner OF somewhere, as I don't know that I want K Davis to spend the season sitting the Brewer bench as a 5th OF.

Unfortunetly, its not that simple. We will never have enough money to sign the top players because there is no set price. Its not a TV where you can save up enough money if you make sacrafices in other areas to then go buy the top of line TV. In MLB there is only 1 "TV" that exists (the top free agent), so the richer teams will just pay whatever it takes to get them. If there was only 1 TV in American then Bill Gates would own it just because he can pay the most, Donald Trump would never own it even if he sold all his extra houses and tried to save up for it. Even if we offered CC Sabathia a $170 MM he would have just taken that to the Yankees and they would have offered him $180. That's a very good point, but what I was getting at is that if we have a near-playoff team, we can scrape a little money together to get another guy. If we have Braun and a bunch of "MLB contributors," we can't scrape enough money together to get a whole bunch of guys, even if Weeks, Gallardo, etc are off the books. We are going to need to find star players somewhere, and the only place I can see us getting them at this point would be to trade away some of our good players before they walk in free agency.

Even some of the "experts" say the Brewers' farm system isn't so depleted, just short on "sure thing" prospects. So this mantra everyone keeps repeating that the Brewers have a weak farm system is a myth and thus sheer nonsense.\ Is the farm system stellar? No, of course not. But is it devoid of eventual solid MLB contributors? Heck no: there are plenty of prospects with legit MLB promise & potential. Blue chippers? Probably not, but still plenty of players with solid MLB futures. From the Greinke & Marcum trades of 2 winters ago, the only prospect we dealt who's left in the minors is Odorizzi (since Jeffress really wouldn't seem to be considered a prospect anymore). And we've drafted plenty of seemingly high-end guys (this year's 3 pre-2nd-round picks, 2 #1's last year) & have guys like Morris, Nelson, Davis, etc. coming up. Right. We're going to replace All-Star caliber players (Hart, Weeks, Ramirez, Gallardo will all leave in the next few seasons) with "MLB contributors." That's my whole point. When we were going "all in," we had guys like Prince and Greinke who now cost over $20MM/year. We don't have those type guys in the system, we can't afford them in free agency, and we don't have the prospects to trade for them. We should have money as the aforementioned guys leave, but not enough to sign the talent we'll need to fill in around our "MLB contributors," since guys like Hart are now getting $15MM/year and guys like Gomez are getting $12MM/year. The TV money coming in (far more to other teams than to the Brewers) is coming at exactly the wrong time for the Brewers, pushing everyone's price tag up and forcing teams like the Brewers to rely more on their farm, which doesn't look like it's capable of producing a playoff caliber MLB team. As to who we traded away, everyone seems to forget that we also traded away Escobar (without trading him, we wouldn't have needed to spend money on FAs and eventually need to include a SS in the Grienke trade) and Cain (with him we wouldn't have needed Gomez). Also, the "window" strategy isn't just about who we traded away, but also that we never traded for anyone (which could have added talent to our current system), and we didn't give promising-but-not-sure-thing prospects a chance (signed Ramirez to block Green, holding Gomez blocking Schafer, etc). Whatever your lot in life, looking only for the present will generally hurt the future. Melvin did what he did. Some are happy for it, some aren't. Doesn't matter, because it happened. Now, we are dealing with the results, which to me looks like a slim hope for a playoff team this year and maybe next before the guys we've relied on for years walk away, and then an extended period of watching Braun surrounded by "MLB contributors" plus a few mid-tier FA pickups to help generate fan interest. We could still do something about it, as the aging, expensive, but still talented vets are still on our roster, and we could look at potentially trading someone at some point to bring in some talented youth, but every time it's brought up, people say those suggesting it are "repeating a mantra that is sheer nonsense."

Adam McCalvy posted an article today stating that Narveson "feels like he has a new arm." http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130214&content_id=41636546&notebook_id=41636566&vkey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil In the article, McCalvy says that if Narveson stays healthy, he is "a good bet to win one of the openings in the starting rotation behind right-handers Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada." Not that I necessarily agree with this logic, but I think he's got an inside track because he would be the Brewers only LH starter, and he adds the "veteran presence" Melvin was looking for but didn't capture in the free agent market. It's a ways to go before Opening Day, but if this is correct and Narveson breaks camp in the rotation behind Yo & Estrada, what would you do with Fiers, Peralta and Rogers? Either of Fiers and Peralta could be sent to AAA, but Fiers is already 27 and Peralta is the best prospect we've got. Both showed that they can get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. Meanwhile, former first-rounder Rogers is finally healthy and has no options left so he's either in the rotation or the bullpen. Personally, I'd probably send Fiers or Peralta to AAA, because I don't like diminishing starting pitchers' value by sticking them in the 'pen, but I'm interested in hearing other posters' thoughts on this. I guess to not limit options, the question could be stated "If Narveson is 100% healthy, how would you put together the Brewers' 2013 starting rotation?"

These next couple years are going to be really tricky because so much of what we do is tied into how quickly the young pitchers become good players. If you define "good" as "well above average," then I think the question is: "How many of our young pitchers will end up being good, and how long will it take to get there?" coupled with the question of "Do we have any position players in the minor leagues who will ever be quality major leaguers?" We seem to have a lot of pitchers who will be MLB players, but most will be middle-to-back of the rotation starters or bullpen arms. We need to have some blossom into top-of-the-rotation starters or we're going to have to spend $25MM/year to find someone on the FA market in order to compete. We're dreadfully thin in the position player ranks, and our hopes really rely on a few guys drafted last year and on Morris proving last year wasn't a fluke.

I think we're looking at extremes. I say "trade him" a lot, but I don't want to see anything like a "constant rebuild." Every team occasionally has to trade some veterans for youth, it's picking the moments to do it. Going into last year, I saw a team with playoff aspirations, but with a lot of talent leaving at the end of the year. Melvin really couldn't trade Marcum and Greinke before the season, so I hoped he would have a quick trigger finger if the team tanked early. They did tank early, but Melvin waited until the last second to decide to make any moves, which cost him the ability to trade Marcum, and we lost him for nothing at the end of the year. Coming into this offseason, the players going into their final season who had some trade value were Gomez and Hart. Both had competent replacements (Gamel and Schafer), but there didn't seem to be any serious consideration of trading either player, because it may have weakened this year's team (although it would strengthen future teams). We've lost the ability to trade Hart (maybe he couldn't be traded because of his knee, but it sounds like the injury/aggravation which required surgery occurred a month or so into the offseason, so he may or may not have passed a physical). There is a very good chance we will lose both Hart and Gomez for nothing at the end of this season. For me, it's not about trading everyone, but it is about looking at who makes sense to trade and occasionally trading someone. The trade of Greinke helped, but isn't close to a panacea. Melvin has been playing what I call the "window strategy," which is going all in for a short period trying to win it all. This strategy includes doing things like trading away good prospects for veterans on short-term deals, signing expensive free agents and extending aging vets to expensive contracts. That has left us in a situation where we have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and will be losing a lot of talent over the next couple of years. We don't have the payroll to replace all the talent we're losing through free agency, and without a good farm, we won't be able to replace them with prospects or by trading prospects for MLB players. This is a natural outcome of the "window strategy," so no one should be surprised when we're not a very good team in the near future. Even with that knowledge, and with the knowledge that this year's team is talented, but probably a long-shot for the playoffs, people still cling to the belief that Melvin "should be fired" if he does anything which in any way may weaken this year's team. It can go both ways. You can be a good team after trading away a good player. I don't think it's a good strategy (though the "window strategy" sometimes makes it necessary) to "trade everyone," but it is also a bad strategy to "trade no one."

From Adam McCalvy on milwaukeebrewers.com: Hart's knee had been an issue throughout all of 2012, beginning in Spring Training when he underwent surgery for two meniscal tears, and continuing early in the season when he banged the knee against the wall at Miller Park while attempting a sliding catch. Hart played through swelling in the joint all season, then rested in October and November while waiting for another injury -- painful plantar fascia in his right foot -- to heal. When he tried to ramp up his training in December, Hart's right knee began to act up. Raasch, the Brewers' head physician, recommended a surgery to repair a smaller meniscal tear and debride the joint surface, and told Hart he'd be sidelined three to four months. But that procedure was delayed a few days while Hart exercised his right to a second opinion from Dr. Richard Steadman, a Vail, Colo.-based specialist considered one of the world's foremost knee experts. Steadman recommended a much more invasive microfracture surgery. "He said I was out for the year," Hart said. "I was like, 'That is not going to happen.'" But over the next few days, Hart said, Steadman and Raasch conferred and opted for the original procedure. Afterward, the Brewers projected a four-month rehab. Maybe it's just me, but I'd be very wary of inking Hart to a multi-year deal. Does anyone else think that if this wasn't a contract year, he would've taken the "invasive microfracture surgery" that would've probably done more to repair the knee, but would've kept him out all season? His trade value is shot, so let him play out the season, and then see how the knee is and how Gamel and Morris look before deciding whether to make a qualifying offer.