monty57

I don't necessarily have a problem with how Boras operates. His clients just need to know that Boras does not look out for an individual's best interest. He only looks out for making the most possible money. If his bets pay off, he & the player make out big time. If they don't pan out, he's still loaded, but the player is hurt. Boras will find more clients and make millions more dollars, while the hurt player goes out and gets a "real" job. For some players, this is what they want, so there needs to be a guy like Boras around to fill this demand. However, if you choose to hire Boras, don't complain when the gamble doesn't pay off. If you didn't want to take the gamble, there are plenty of agents who care about the players and not just about the money.

But then do you dump Aoki, probably the only leadoff option on the Brewers (and under control for five years), or do you deal Gomez, who just got a three-year extension after a career year? Obviously neither is going anywhere right now, but one of them could easily be traded next offseason if Davis has a good year this year (either everyday at AAA, or as a backup OF/DH/bench bat in the majors). Both would have plenty of team control available and should have lots of trade value if they put up decent years this year. It looks to me like Davis will make the MLB roster to start this season. While there is an arguement to be made that he would benefit more from everyday play in AAA, I don't think AAA matters at all to Roenicke, so the only way Davis will ever have a chance in Milwaukee is if he gets sporadic play off the bench and makes the most of it. If this happens, there is a chance (however small) that the Brewer brass would consider trading a vet to let a young player play. Since Melvin doesn't like trading expensive players to make room for inexpensive ones, I think liveforoctober's wish will probably come true before mine will. Davis will probably end up as trade bait for an expensive rent-a-player. Either that or he & Schafer will be our backups for the next 3-4 years.

Yes, I'm sure Lohse's family would've starved had he settled for the paltry sum of $13.5MM he would've received had his advisor given him better advise.

Based on OPS, Carlos Lee was the worst regular 1B in the National League last year, with an OPS of .697. The next closest was Yonder Alonzo at .741 and Ike Davis at .771 (both playing in pitchers' parks). Loney was terrible, but only got 334 ABs and was replaced. Who here thinks that Gonzalez will beat a dead caballo and outpace Carlos Lee's lackluster 2012? I guess that's my bar for Gonzalez... to try to outpace a guy who was jeered by the fans of two last place teams last year. It's not much to cheer for, but since Roenicke has named Gonzalez the starter, it's all I've got.

but otherwise his best value to the Brewers is probably going to be as a July trade piece. Yuck. That would mean that we were trading away six years of someone who could be an above average MLB hitter for 2-3 months of a rent-a-player to try to help us get the second wild card spot. I'd rather let him put up those same gaudy numbers so that Melvin could trade Aoki or Gomez next offseason for a good player we'd control for years to come. I have no doubt in my mind that Braun could easily play RF, and that he would gladly make the switch next offseason if it meant getting another good bat into the Milwaukee lineup to help the team win.

Other than being drafted early in the first round, Mark Rogers really hasn't done much to merit a team "taking a chance on him" if it will cost them anything of value. He has a horrific injury history and his numbers in the minors are not good. The Brewers have a lot invested in him, so they'll try to hold onto him as long as they can in order to get some return from that investment, but other teams don't have that worry. Unfortunately, I think that if the Brewers tried sending him to the minors, some team would claim him for nothing. I hoped he could land the #5 starter spot this year to see if he has put things together, but he can't throw a strike this spring, so the Brewers really can't put him in the rotation as he'd be an automatic loss/bullpen burner every time out. Blanks is about the same age as Rogers, and while Blanks hasn't lived up to his promise as a Major Leaguer (.737 OPS in 146 games/425 ABs), he has a .905 career OPS in the minors and has monsterous power. He would definitely be someone to target, and I'd certainly trade Rogers for him right now, but I don't think the Padres would make that trade, especially with Blanks having a good spring. I think if he got out of the hitter's purgatory in San Diego he'd put up good numbers. You are correct that Blanks is blocked in SD, and he makes sense for the Brewers who need a 1B and his presence on the MLB roster would allow Davis to play full-time in AAA. I'm sure we could make a deal for one of our minor league pitchers, but you'd have to give up some value. Maybe someone who projects to be a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation starter who's a fly-ball pitcher, which would play well in SD, but not in Miller Park.

Well sure, it's easier to find a good hitting LF than it is a good hitting 3B... that's because it's easier to play defense at LF than at 3B. If Braun ever sees the infield again, it will be at the end of his contract when he's lost his speed and gets moved to 1B. I think it's more likely that they'll still keep him in the OF even in that situation. Khris Davis himself has said he couldn't play first, and his arm isn't strong enough to play RF, so his path to becoming a starter in the majors is either at LF or DH. The Brewers don't have a DH, so either Braun gets moved to RF (he does have the arm for that position) or Braun gets hurt. I hope it's not the latter, and I don't see it being the former until at least next offseason. This season, Davis will either be on the Brewers' bench or starting in LF in Nashville. Either way, he will have to continue to swing a very hot bat if he wants a starting role in Milwaukee, as he would have to convince Melvin to trade a "proven" veteran with a lot of team control in either Aoki or Gomez. That would be a good option, but I'm not holding my breath believing Melvin will trade a "proven" vet to let a rookie play. Of course, either Aoki or Gomez could completely bomb this season. My money would be on Gomez, but he's signed to a big, guaranteed contract, so he'd still play. Therefore, Aoki is really the guy Davis has to outplay, and then he's competing with Schafer, who actually could play excellent defense in RF and should be a capable MLB hitter who could lead off, which we'd need if Aoki is being replaced. In other words, the odds are not in favor of Davis getting a lot of playing time with the Brewers. He really needs someone to get hurt.

Signing the 2001 version of Barry Bonds to play left field would not be worth putting Braun back at third. I'd guess Davis will be a bench player this year and will get a couple hundred PAs as the primary RH bat off the bench, designated hitter (assuming that doesn't go to Gonzalez once Hart's back) and fill-in during Braun's annual week missed with an oblique strain. Next offseason, if Davis and/or Schafer dominate in their 100-200 PAs, Melvin will contemplate trading Aoki, Braun will move to RF (if Davis looks better than Schafer), or Schafer will play RF with Davis as the 4th OF. If, in the limited PAs they receive this year, Davis and/or Schafer do not dominate, the team will assume that they are career backups, potentially getting a chance to start in 4-5 years when Gomez and Aoki's contracts are up. After sitting the bench for four seasons, they will shine in their 30-year-old season when they finally get a chance to start, prompting Melvin to sign them to eight-figure extensions.

Trading one "organization soldier" from a position of surplus for an "organization soldier" at a position of need?

Are you referring to Rogers taking the eigth bullpen spot? If so, putting him in the 'pen would only be done because (1) he's out of options, (2) he couldn't find the strike zone this spring and would be pretty much an automatic loss every fifth day if he were given a spot in the rotation, and (3) the Brewers aren't yet ready to give up on him, so they'd see if the coaching staff could help him work through things. He wouldn't "help" other than eating up some innings in blowout games. It's really a question of whether or not holding on to him in this fashion is more important than keeping another position player on the bench.

I'd start Maldonado in Nashville. He needs AB's. He's been basically a bullpen catcher for Puerto Rico. Actually, he saw a lot of time at 1B. I'm not nearly as worried about him getting ABs as I am worried about him getting time behind the plate to "shake off the rust" defensively. But, on a positive note, his getting time at 1B can help us if it bumps Gonzalez off of first. I think Green should be our "regular" 1B until Hart gets back, with Maldonado getting some starts against lefties (he can always go to catcher from first if something happens to Lucroy mid-game). I can see their thought process on an eight-man bullpen: Maldonado (RH) backs up C & 1B, Gonzalez (RH) backs up SS/2B/3B/1B, Schafer (LH) backs up all three OF positions, Khris Davis (RH) makes the roster as thr primary RH bat off the bench/backup LF/designated hitter (first away interleague game not until May 29). Meanwhile, Green starts at 1B, but can back up 2B or 3B with either Maldonado or Gonzalez covering first for the day. Everyone but Davis can play multiple positions, so the need for the fifth guy is more limited, especially with most of our regulars being guys who rarely take a day off. I don't like eight man bullpens, but with Rogers out of options, they'll probably use the eighth spot to hide him for blowout games to see if he can pull it together, while getting time with the coaches on the side. They can make a more informed decision in 15 days when Bianchi gets off the DL as to whether Green is cutting it as the everyday 1B and whether they should add a man to the bench.

But we aren't heading towards that point at all, this is just your negative nelly attitude at work. Funny, because believe it or not, I'm actually a pretty positive person. A big dose of reality hits me when I look at the system as a whole, including contract obligations. I think we're headed the wrong way. We are nowhere near as talented today as we were going into 2011 (Greinke, Marcum, Fielder, etc). There is not a case that could be made to say we have nearly that much talent on the roster. I've posted this a number of times, but we have loads of money next year tied up in a few players, so I don't see any way of extending Hart (as WTP and Yoshii mentioned) or adding any money to fill any holes. Meanwhile, we have a farm system, including the "young pitchers entering their prime" which is one of the worst in baseball. The optimist in me still sees a light that maybe a bunch of our pitchers defy the skeptics. If Fiers is truly top-of-the-rotation starter after no scout ever gave him a second glace, it would certainly help our chances, but realistically, how often does that happen? We're betting our future on a handful of 30-somethings on eight-figure salaries surrounded by young players who are projected to be utility guys, back-of-the-rotation starters, and middle relievers. I guess optimism/pessimism to the future depends on whether one believes the guys we have locked up will live up to (or exceed) their contracts into their 30's and whether our unheralded pitchers prove the scouts wrong. I think odds are that we're getting less-and-less competitive/talented as the years tick by. The Reds have a much better MLB team and a better farm, the Cardinals have a better MLB team and a much better farm, the Pirates have a similarly talented MLB team and a much, much better farm, and the Cubs are a worse MLB team, but a much, much better farm with a lot of money. We had the best team in the division in 2011, and we made the playoffs. We were less talented in 2012 than 2011, and we're less talented now than we were to start last season (no Greinke or Marcum, no real additions). We will be less talented going into next year than we are now, without Hart and with most of our payroll tied up in eight players. These are the phantom trades you keep talking about that just don't make any sense in the real world. You may be right, but they're the only thing I see that could get us out of our downward spiral and back in the right direction. We have some "tradeable commodities," but they'll gradually lose value and leave via free agency. We can only afford so many mid-to-high-priced players. Extending another to a market value contract just makes it more necessary to have a good farm to fill in the roster. We don't have a good (or even decent) farm. Other than saying "everyone who rates prospects are a bunch of clowns... we really have some huge talent in the minors," how are we going to be better this year than we were two years ago, and how will we be better over the next few years then we are right now? It's baseball, so anything can happen, but "on paper" I don't see it. I want to be proven wrong. Heck, I'd even take just being convinced I'm wrong. I want to believe.

Take that, small markets! Yeah, this would suck. Pretty much any team with an actual budget (read: any team not in a mega-market) would immediately be pushed over their budget. For example, let's assume this goes into effect next season and league minimum is put at, say $1MM. The Brewers have seven guys (Weeks, Braun, Gallardo, Ramirez, Gomez, Lucroy, Gorzelanny) under contract for $62.55MM and one (Aoki) with an option for I believe $1.5-2MM. Everyone else would cost more. League minimum guys would now be $1MM and all arby eligible guys would be "further along" in arby, with the baseline (league minimum) raised. Axford would probably get $10MM next year. I would have to guess that this would push the Brewers over $100MM, a figure at which they lost money last year. I have a hard time believing the owners are going to agree to tear up the current CBA when it would mean a good share of them would lose money. I'm not talking about making less profit, I'm talking operating at a loss. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers would be giddy with this concept, but I can't imagine it'd go through... maybe if the minimum is only raised $10,000 or something, but not anything of significance.

So Roenicke announced that Gallardo, Estrada, Peralta, Narveson, Fiers is going to open as our rotation. With the implosion of Rogers, this was pretty much set as the rotation. I'd hoped Rogers would at least be good enough this spring to make an arguement for his being in the rotation but... he didn't. With MLB-ready guys in the AAA rotation, I could see the Brewers looking at the bullpen as Rogers' future. Even though Rogers will be a Brewer to open the season, if we have an injury in the rotation, I'd have to think that at least Thornburg and Burgos would get starts ahead of Rogers. There are obviously a lot of question marks with this rotation, which is the reason that no one outside of Milwaukee thinks the Brewers will be better than 3rd or 4th in the Central. This season will be very telling as to the future of the Brewers. If our MLB SP outperform the critics we could sneak into the playoffs this season, and if the MiLB SP outperform the critics, the future will look a lot brighter.

I agree. If you make a system in which everyone has an equal shot, and some people make bad selections because they didn't do as much homework, then I'm okay with that system. I'm less okay with a system in which everyone knows the player's good, but only the ones with a built-in economic advantage can sign him. It will be interesting to see how it works in Japan (where players generally come to the U.S. when they're around 30 after a career in the Japanese League) vs Latin America, where players are signed when they're in their mid-teens.

The Brewers are talking about keeping eight relievers out of spring training. There's no way they go with six to start the season. If we're going to use Lalli's 2013 spring #s, then shouldn't we heavily weigh the 15 MLB PA's he has in his career, with a .309 OPS? Either one of them is far to small a sample to actually matter. In their minor league careers, which both have over 2,200 ABs, Green has hit around .050 OPS points higher than Lalli. That's a pretty significant difference in favor of Green. That said, I would not be surprised at all to see Roenicke want Lalli on the roster over Green because of his hot spring.

Come on, he's a soon to be 30 year old career minor leaguer who couldn't even crack a .700 OPS in the PCL last year. There is nothing to be excited about with Blake Lalli. Roenicke believes his eyes. In the limited PAs he's seen Lalli and Green, Lalli has outperformed Green. In the thousands of PAs Roenicke hasn't seen, Green has outperformed Lalli. In the 25 ABs he saw Morris, he didn't hit well. Spring Training is usually pretty meaningless, but unfortunately this year, the Brewers have to figure out who will be their everyday 1B for 1/3 of the season. Personally, I'd look at the players' entire body of work, but I wouldn't be surprised if we go with who has the hot spring or the "veteran grittiness." I think Morris and Green both make a ton of sense. Morris could get a chance to "get his feet wet" at the MLB level, knowing he'd be sent back when Hart returns, giving him experience and confidence to take over the starting role next year. Green could finally get his everyday chance to see if he can live up to the promise he's shown in the minors and see if he can raise his stock up. Meanwhile, Gonzalez can't hit well enough to land a starting SS gig at this point, and Lalli has never hit well enough to land a starting catching gig (or even spend much time on a MLB roster). These are the two lightest hitting positions on the field, and these guys could very likely be our starting platoon at 1B. That or Lalli/Maldonado, which brings me to another point. Gonzalez hasn't played much SS this spring, and Maldonado hasn't played much catcher - both have been spending most of their time at 1B. Is anyone else worried that our backup SS and backup C may be "rusty" on defense when the season starts? Edit: Here are Lalli & Green's numbers: Lalli has a total of 15 MLB ABs (he'll be 30 in 2 months), so his career .321 OPS in the majors is about as meaningful as his 1.000+ OPS this spring. He has 2,233 minor league ABs, with a line of .296 AVG / .357 OBP / .416 SLG / .773 OPS. Green has a paltry 140 MLB ABs, so again his .609 career OPS isn't really meaningful. He has 2,468 minor league ABs, with a line of .289 AVG / .370 OBP / .452 SLG / .822 OPS. Neither one has proven anything, but if that's your choice I'd definitely give the nod to Green.

That would've worked before the Gomez extension, when Aoki could've moved to CF. Now Davis would have to prove to be more valueable than Aoki, or go with a Davis/Aoki platoon in LF, which wouldn't leave us with a full-time leadoff hitter. Or, Aoki could be traded at some point, opening up a spot, but trades of "proven" veterans to make room for rookies are taboo for the Brewers. Whether Davis makes the roster will really depend on if they keep an 8th reliever. I think that option is dependant on whether Rogers "finds it" before spring is out, or if they just have to keep him as "long guy who only pitches in blowout games." I like the thought of Davis as the RH bat off the bench/backup LF/Designated Hitter, but with Schafer getting the backup starts at CF/RF, I see Davis as being the odd-man out if they keep the 8th reliever. Of course, if Roenicke would use Gonzalez/Bianchi/Maldonado as a PH/DH ahead of Davis, then he should automatically be sent to AAA. As far as Green goes, I think he's going to see a lot of time at 1B, probably platooning with Gonzalez. Therefore, I think he's now a shoo-in to make the team, and the decision between him and Bianchi will happen when Hart returns. I really hope Green can make the most of this opportunity, as it may be his last shot at regular playing time if he looks bad early this season.

Not complaining as much as realizing that although I had hopes for some of our prospects, it seems the Brewers agree with national prospect watchers that our top guys are MLB backups. This is forcing us to pay market value to the guys we have as they push into their 30's. We can't afford too many market deals, and as of 2014, seven guys (Weeks, Braun, Gallardo, Ramirez, Lucroy, Gomez, Gorzellany) will make $62.55MM. Axford, Badenhop and Estrada will probably add another $14-15MM and I believe Aoki is paid around $1.5-2MM if we pick up his option. That's 11 guys at around $78MM. That probably leaves us $10MM or so for the remaining 14 guys. Gamel and Narveson will also be in arby, so if we decide to use them, they're seven figures each. As Melvin continues to pay more and more money to a smaller number of players, we are forced to play more guys at league minimum. Unfortunately, we do not have many highly regarded guys that will play for league minimum, so we have to hope that a lot of guys perform better than any prospect watchers believed they would in order for us to have any chance to compete. That plays into your statement that many here overvalue our farm. I agree, and that's what worries me. I "drank the Kool-Aid" and thought we had some talented pitchers that could save us, and that guys like Schafer could ease the payroll strain by taking over as a starter for league minimum. Unfortunately, no one who gets paid to rate these prospects thinks we have any stars in the system. Across the board, we hear that our minor leaguers are going to be utility players, bullpen arms, or back-of-the-rotation starters. So, we're in a position that the vast majority of our payroll is going to a handful of guys and the rest of the roster has to be made up of guys that project to have limited MLB careers. Every time we look like we may get a little room to breathe, Melvin spends more money on a market value extension. We had a tremendous group of prospects in the system all at once, which included two potential Hall of Famers and several multiple-time All Stars. Melvin rode out their time here, and made moves like a big-market GM. Agree with what he did or not, that's what happened and why we're sitting in the position we now are, which means we have to see if one of the worst farms in the league can grow enough talent to keep the team in the smallest market in baseball afloat. I hope the young pitchers prove everyone wrong, because if they don't, we'll end up wallowing in the cellar of the NL Central for the next 5-10 years. The cycle I don't want to see, but fear that I am seeing is that we do everything possible to win in our "window." Then we keep some "names" around that the fans know in hopes of keeping fans interested in the team while it slowly erodes until fans finally lose interest and we're forced to go into a "fire sale" while waiting for some bad contracts to come off the books.

I have heard on this board (and agree with) the thinking that we need more difference makers coming up through the ranks. Gomez can be that type of difference maker. The reason we need them "coming up through the ranks" is that they will be "Brewers property" at a very low price for six years, and they allow us to trade away older "established" guys nearing the end of their contracts. We can then extend the young "core guys" to far less expensive extensions. We could afford 50 Lucroy contracts, but we could only afford 10-12 Gomez contracts or about 8-9 Weeks contracts. We need 25 guys on the roster. Gomez is not "coming up through the ranks." He's extended the same way Weeks and Gallardo were extended, and that gets expensive. Melvin likes "proven" and is willing to wait and pay for it. Unfortunately, that means that our position player prospects will never be able to "prove" themselves, and we're now to the point that we'll always spend most of our payroll on a few expensive players and fill in the rest of the roster with whatever we can afford. On a related note, I think this means that Melvin must agree with most of the prospect watchers out there, that even though we hype guys on this board, he doesn't seem to think that any of our position prospects are good enough to merit MLB playing time in the next 3-5 years. If that's the case, I hope he's sly enough to fool others into trading for them, because Schafer, the two Davises and Gindl just lost most of their value to the Brewers.

also, in returning hunter morris to minor league camp, it appears that the brewers do not plan to add him to the major league roster at this point. this bodes well for older players on minor league contracts trying to earn a 40-man (and 25-man) roster spot. Seeing the way Gamel and Green have been handled, and now Schafer, I don't really believe any of the Brewers' upper-minors position prospects will be given a chance to start, at least not until it's a "last option" scenario. Unless Morris gets accolades like Braun, Weeks and Fielder, if they don't go with Gamel, I'd bet they'll sign/trade for a veteran 1B next offseason. The next position player prospects that may be given a shot are starting before they're 27 are Coulter and Roache, and both of those guys play positions that the Brewers have locked up for a long time.

To the best of my recollection, Upton has never been benched. Gomez has been benched (or reduced to the RH side of a platoon) by the Mets, Twins and Brewers. If his defense were really worth $5-6MM/year, teams would not have benched him, as he's always played good defense. I don't love or hate this move. I think it's less than he would have received if he were a free agent today, but I do feel it was unnecessary, as we have in-house replacements who would play for league minimum. It doesn't seem like a strategic use of a limited resource (money), and I worry that there is way too much chance that Gomez will go back to the guy he's been for most of his career that many here wanted to see thrown away (remember the posts saying the Hardy trade was the worst in team history?) Gomez had a decent year last year, and he's an exciting player. Much of his improvement last year came from an increase in HR. Is this sustainable? Bill Hall hit 35 HR and got an extension for it. I hope Gomez is able to keep the balls flying out of the park. If he does, he's worth more then the contract. If he doesn't, he's basically the guy teams have continually used in a platoon, and fans have jeered. btw, we now have $62.55MM tied up for 2014 in seven players (Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, Gallardo, Gomez, Gorzellany, Lucroy). Axford will probably make $7-8MM, so around $70MM for eight guys. Cot's is pretty amazing, as they've already updated Gomez's contract.

Davis did an interview this spring where he said he tried out first base and it really didn't work for him. Defense is a skill that some players have and some don't, so your statement is kind of like saying "just give Izturis a bat and tell him to hit a HR. He'll get better." Izturis will never hit for power and Davis will probably never be a good fielder. Hopefully he'll be passable as a LF. Therefore if the Brewers want him as a MLB starter, they'll have to move Braun to RF which he could certainly play. Since we have Aoki for the next five seasons, he'd have to either be benched or moved to CF, where we have Schafer for six years. So, (barring injuries) for Davis to start for the Brewers, Braun would need to change positions and either Aoki or Schafer will need to be traded or moved to the bench. In other words, Davis really has to prove himself if he's ever going to be a starting OF for the Brewers. Even as a 4th OF, Gindl probably has an upper hand, as he can back up all three OF positions. I like Davis, but he's certainly not in an ideal position, and may end up as trade bait to a team that needs a LF/DH.

I'd rather find someone with more "team control," but those guys probably aren't out there right now. If we're looking for a trade right now, Niemann is probably a solid choice, and he fits Melvin's m.o. He's got this year at $3MM (via Cot's, ESPN says $2.75MM) and one more year of arby. He's 30 years old, so he probably isn't a candidate for an extension of more than maybe an extra season, but he would be an upgrade to our rotation. Tampa doesn't seem like a team looking to trade for a one-year stopgap like Gomez or Hart, so I'd guess it would have to be a package centered on prospects. Khris Davis could be included. I like him, but unless Braun is moving to RF, Davis is completely blocked as a Brewer (he said in an interview that he tried 1B and that didn't work out). He has value to a team looking for a LF/DH in the not-too-distant future and Luke Scott (Tampa's DH) is a FA after this season. We'd probably also have to add another solid piece, probably in the Thornberg/Jungmann category... someone who projects to be at least a middle-of-the-rotation starter down the road. Would something like Thornberg and Khris Davis do it, and if so, would that be a good deal for the Brewers?

That's pretty much my thoughts. I had hoped he'd get the #5 starter job based on potential and that he doesn't have any options remaining. Ennder hit it on the head in that last year's MLB stint certainly didn't mirror the erratic season he had in the minors. He's seemingly pitching himself out of that MLB rotation, but I'd guess they'll try to keep him on as "long man" out of the pen after all the shots they've given him over the years. This could be why Roenicke has hinted at keeping eight relievers. Rogers' spot would be to only come in in blowout games to see if he can get it together while working with the MLB coaches in his "down time." Otherwise, if he has a couple of horrendous MLB outings, they may have a better chance of slipping him through to the minors late April than they do now, when a bottom-feeder team like the Astros may claim him on his potential.