monty57

He's all about versatility. So Taylor Green and Jeff Bianchi might see time in the OF down here to see if they can possibly do it. So rather than keeping Gindl or Davis, who have both been playing out of their minds, we'll play a so-so player out of position so that we can carry a mediocre bullpen arm who will likely never pitch. I understand the 5th OF doesn't see much defensive playing time, but Gindl/Davis would probably be our top bat off the bench, which I would think would be more important than an 8th bullpen arm.

With the limited resource that DM had I think he did a pretty good job of "throwing guys against the wall to see who sticks". A small market team cannot afford to give out big contracts to bullpen pitchers (see Riske, David). I agree, which is why I wonder if the Brewers will be willing to pay the escalating arby rewards for Axford if he pitches like he did in 2012. He's making $5MM this year, so next year will be around $7-9MM, year 3 probably $10-12MM and year 4 probably $13-15MM. Granted it's one year at a time, but I can see the possibility that Melvin simply doesn't offer him arby at some point. Using one "game" in early March against some of the best bats in the game as a barometer on how someone is going to pitch the rest of the season is not a good practice. If he had pitched well last year, no one would be worried. However, other than K/9, his stats last year all took a big turn for the worse. TLB was just using one game as an example of what could be the big problem. Players across the league have figured out that you need to sit on Axford's fastball and don't offer at anything else. Hopefully he's able to adjust, but following up a down year, he hasn't shown anything so far this spring to give me hope. Again, I'm not advocating cutting him or even taking him out of the closer's role. I'm just saying that if Detroit is desparate enough to "overpay" and give us something really good for him, I'd take it and let his issues be someone else's concern. I'll stop discussing this now, because Melvin isn't going to trade Axford. To the rest of the topic, other than what's previously noted, the Brewers had a pretty good showing in the WBC. Even though it was tough having to somewhat root against Gallardo when he pitched against Team USA, I've had fun watching games that actually mattered in March.

And that's why I hope the Brewers don't get in the habit of paying one player 20-30% or so of payroll. I hope Zack's alright, but had the Brewers signed him to a $100MM+ deal and he ended up on and off the DL and pitching well under 100%, we'd be screwed.

I don't think the bullpen's going to be awful. I actually like most of the bullpen and like what Melvin did this offseason bringing in solid arms at almost no cost. Olmsted looks like a beast, Badenhop is a better version of Loe and we've got two lefties who aren't head-cases. I just think there is a big question mark hanging over Axford after last season, and the little bit he's thrown this spring (I know it's spring, but he was certainly trying with Team Canada) has looked like batting practice. If Detroit is desparate enough for a "proven closer" that they'd give us something good for Axford, I'd take it. Otherwise, while I hope Axford regains his dominance, I wouldn't be surprised if we're debating next offseason whether or not we should even offer Axford arby.

Melvin is too smart for this. Axford is the one guy on the roster who should rebound. The rest of the bullpen is pretty much awful. He should be trying to pick up arms, not trade the best arm. Melvin won't do it because he knows the move would look like he was giving up on the season, and this season is all about keeping up the image that they're still a contender so that fans continue to buy tickets. I'm just surprised that they haven't started offering three- or five-year season ticket "specials." I know the season's still a couple of weeks away, but I don't think Axford has thrown one good inning yet, and this includes meaningful games in which he wasn't just working on a pitch. This coming off a bad 2012 season. He seems to be a long ways away from where he was a couple of seasons ago, and looks more apt to join Melvin's list of scrap-heap finds who dominate for a short period before returning to mediocrity. Axford being the "proven guy" could actually be the Brewers' achilles heel this season, as he is going to get a long leash as closer. If he doesn't "find it" pretty soon, he could personally dig the Brewers into a deep hole early on. I hope he bounces back, as the Axford of 2011 could really help the 2013 Brewers. It's just that watching him has given me doubts as to whether he'll be that pitcher or if the 2012 version is more likely. Right now, we could probably get the World Series hungry Tigers owner to pay handsomly for Axford. If he has another 2012-type season, we may not offer arby to him, as that would force us to pay around $7-8MM for him next year. A trade won't happen, but I won't be shocked if Axford loses the closer role this year.

The entire nation of Canada can now understand how Brewer fans feel watching the "late inning stoppers" come in and blow the game. I really wish Melvin would call Detroit and ship Axford out while he still has "proven closer" value. I don't have a whole lot of faith in him this season.

with reports that alex gonzalez is pegged as the brewers' starting first baseman until corey hart returns, the brewers will need a bench player who can play short. this bodes well for jeff bianchi to make the 25-man roster. I think this is going to be the case. Morris will probably end up in the minors, and some combo of Green / Gonzalez will be our first baseman, leading to an opening for another middle infielder. The decision on Bianchi can then be postponed for a while, and anything can happen during that time. A couple of thoughts: 1) Maldonado has been playing 1B in the World Baseball Classic, so he could get some time there at the start of the season. 2) Now that Canada's out of the WBC, Green should get some starts at 3B until Ramirez is back. Hopefully he mashes and the Brewers look to him over Gonzalez as the primary 1B while Hart's out. I still can't believe we're considering using a backup SS as our everyday 1B for potentially 1/3 of the season. My guess for the 25-man: OF: Braun, Aoki, Gomez, Schafer, Gindl (beats Davis out because of defensive flexibility) IF: Ramirez, Segura, Weeks, Gonzalez, Green, Bianchi C: Lucroy, Maldonado SP: Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Narveson, Rogers RP: Axford, Badenhop, Henderson, Gorzellany, Gonzalez, Olmsted, Stinson

Sounds like Hart's MRI went well. Off crutches and beginning next stage of rehab.

I want Hellweg to remain a starter, as he has the potential to be a good starter. If he can't make it as a starter, then he could be a back-of-the-bullpen reliever, but that's not nearly as valuable as a good starter. He's young, and I don't think he'd get enough innings in the 2013 bullpen to be able to make a good transition back to becoming a starter. In other words, if he's in the bullpen this year, they will probably try to groom him to being a future closer. I'd rather let him sink or swim as a starter first. I do hope that Olmsted makes it, and I think he has a pretty good shot. He actually seems to be the interim closer while WBC is going on, so I think he's got Roenicke's confidence. As I mentioned earlier, Axford, Henderson, Badenhop, Gorzellany and Gonzalez are pretty much locks for the bullpen, so that would leave one opening (along with Olmsted). That could be Narveson/Rogers, or (if Peralta starts in AAA to gain a year of control) it could go to someone with an option who could be sent down to AAA when a fresh arm is needed.

I think why you are seeing this is that team's aren't thinking that the arby years are that "cheap" anymore. So they are actually protecting a little against the cost of arby going up too. And, by giving certainty to the player, they will sign for less than they would get if they went year-to-year (otherwise, don't do it). If the most talented player in the world gets hurt in his pre-arby years, he will have to go somewhere and find a job for the rest of his life. With a deal which guarantees they will be paid tens of millions of dollars no matter what, they know they will be set. Lucroy probably could've made a lot more than $11MM (I believe that's his guarantee) over the term of his contract had he gone year-to-year and then hit free agency. However, if his wife drops some more suitcases, he knows he'll still get his $11MM, so it was worth the risk of losing out on potential money in order to guarantee a whole lot of money. Some players (like Fielder) wanted to go year-to-year, and that's fine. We should build our "core" around players who will take this type of deal... we just need more young players in our system who merit the offer. Lucroy had played more than 200 MLB games when he was extended, Segura has played fewer than 50. So I wouldn't move on him until at least the end of the season. There's plenty of time, and no need to risk the guaranteed money. I hope he and the others perform well enough to make it something to consider. I think you're correct on Segura (he's just the only one I would even consider right now), and I'm right there with you hoping others step it up. There are no Brauns or Fielders in our system, so hope is what we have to go on.

If Segura would sign the same deal Lucroy signed, I'd probably do it now as I think he's pretty likely to live up to that deal. I think it's more likely that the Brewers will keep an eye on both Peralta and Segura this season and if one or both have good seasons, they will be offered a long-term extension next offseason. Hopefully we can find others over the next few years who are worthy of getting this type of extension, but the pool's pretty shallow. I'd say Jungmann, Bradley, Roache and Coulter would be the most likely, but they've all got a lot to prove before that'll happen.

I can't speak to this particular deal, but I think this type of deal is the wave of the future. I much prefer this type of extension to the less "flame-out risky" but far more "cost risky" method of waiting until the player only has a year or so left on his contract. I hope the Brewers can find "core" players when they are young (around 24 or under) and sign them to these type of deals. Right now, I think the logical targets will be Segura and Peralta. There's certainly risk involved, but getting 8-9 years out of good young players instead of 6 and getting a bit of a discount in return for the certainty is probably a good idea. You just need the patience to only focus on the top talent while they're still young and not on marginal talent guys like McGehee or guys you will already control through their prime like Axford. For example, Fiers is too old to get this type extension, so we should just let him run through pre-arby/arby and you'll get his prime without taking the risk. Rogers has too much injury risk to ever be considered. Guys like Schafer, Burgos, Thornberg, Morris, Davis, etc will all probably be in their mid-to-late 20's when/if they get starting gigs for the Brewers, so they probably shouldn't be candidates. Hopefully some of the MiLB starting pitching takes a step forward in the next year or so to get themselves to consideration, and some of the low-minors position players live up to their potential and make the Brewers at a young age.

I'm just curious what makes you think this? We have done nothing this offseason to make me think we are "going for it". In fact the offseason suggests just the opposite. They are cautiously optimistic but want to assess the team for the future at the same time. If we were going for it we would have signed a FA pitcher for rotational depth. The team has the players to make a run at the playoffs but at the same time they really need to figure out how much of this pitching is the future and what we need to do long term. Good question. They're not "going for it." They're trying to make it look like they're "going for it." They were truly "going for it" two years ago when they made the Greinke and Marcum trades and didn't trade Fielder. This year, it's more what they didn't do, which is trade Hart and/or Gomez who are/were both tradeable commodities entering the final year of their contracts. My frustration is that they aren't really "going for it," but they won't admit they're not really "going for it," so instead of making a couple of moves which could help their future, they're standing pat to put up what looks to be an effort to keep fans interested as the "window" is nearly closed. That's why I said "supposed to be going for it." I think they're kind of stuck in neutral but slipping quickly into reverse, but they want to make it look like they're still "going for it." However, since we seem to be heading to a point in the not-too-distant future where we will have no shot at the playoffs, we shouldn't throw away the small shot we have this year by naming a backup SS as our starting 1B for 20-30% of the season. I'm always going to look to the future, but since Spring Training's started, I'm trying to look at how this year's team can best compete. I don't think starting Gonzalez at 1B is the best way to make this team competitive. We have better in-house options, so I hope we use them. Morris is a "B level" prospect who is already in his mid-20's, so I hope they don't pass over him because they're worried about using up a month of his service time.

If they decide not to use Morris, it could easily be about not wanting to burn service time. I could understand worrying about burning some service time to sit a player on the bench, but this is for the full-time first baseman job in a year in which they are supposed to be "going for it." I could even understand worrying about burning some service time if they had a reasonable (or even semi-reasonable) replacement, but not to give the everyday 1B job to Gonzalez, who couldn't find a job as a starting SS this offseason (and he can still play SS defensively). But the bottom line to me is that Morris isn't that young, and this is a good opportunity to see how he does at the MLB level. While there will always be pressure, his would be limited by the knowledge that no matter what he does, he's the guy until Hart comes back, and then he's going back to AAA. If he does well, he gains confidence. If not, he can go back to AAA and work on what went wrong. Morris is still in the running, so I don't want to sound like the job has been given to anyone. I just think that the decision should be made based on what they think of Morris and Green, and Gonzalez shouldn't even be a consideration. A good case could be made that this is a good opportunity to see what they have in Green, but it seems they've decided that Green is not an everyday MLB player, so it should be Morris' job. If Gonzalez gets the nod, I'd guess Morris will end up like Gamel and Green, where he's kept in the minors to his late 20's and then (because he's in his late 20's and hasn't "proven anything" at the MLB level) will be considered a bench player. If they really have faith in his abilities, they will not block him with a guy who will probably hit for a .700-ish OPS.

Hunter Morris first HR of the spring. Khris Davis another HR. I hope Morris wins the 1B job and either Davis or Gindl gets the 5th OF spot.

Wouldn't he make as much sense as Bobby Crosby Yes. The question is, how much sense does Bobby Crosby make :-) Seriously, I saw the game as well, and wondered what Cantu was doing these days. He's obviously still playing somewhere since he's on Team Mexico. Our current 1B "bar" is set at around a .700 OPS level with Gonzalez, who seems to have the inside track on the temporary starting gig. I really hope Morris or Green get the call over Gonzalez, but if the Brewers don't want them in an everyday role, I would look for anyone who has ever swung a bat and is still breathing before handing the spot to Gonzalez. I understand that Morris is off to a 2-for-16 start to Spring, but that shouldn't be the determinant as to whether or not he gets the temporary 1B job. If Brewer management doesn't trust him over Gonzalez to man 1B, I think we should take him off our "prospect radar."

Probably a commentary on how dependant society has become on spell check. An Editor should have caught the mis-type, but nowadays, if it doesn't have a squiggly red line under it, it goes unnoticed. Had he typed "Ricjie" then it probably would've been corrected, but since "Richie" is an actual word it made it through. As to Richie, er, I mean Rickie... here's to a healthy and productive season. The Brewers need the "real" Rickie Weeks to step forward this year.

I know Porcello's only 24, but he's got four seasons under his belt and has never lived up to the hype. His best year was his rookie year, and since then, he's been pretty bad. Add that he'll be a free agent after the 2014 season, and I think I'd look for something different. Now, if they'd trade Castellanos for Axford, that may be a different story. Put him back at 3B in AAA, and we'd have a much better outlook for the future.

I think it really depends on the internal discussions the owners have had with Melvin regarding money. It seems that they would've given him a little more payroll for someone like Dempster who has proven to be a good pitcher for quite a while now, but he probably doesn't have extra money to just "throw around." The owners gambled a bit last year and lost when they didn't make the playoffs. That cost them money. This year, they probably want to make sure there are pretty good odds that they'll make some money.

Khris Davis has played 267 games in LF and 2 games in RF. He has a four-year career minor league OPS of .914, ending last year in Nashville. Kentrail Davis has played the positions you listed. He has a three-year minor leauge OPS of .760, ending last year in Huntsville. Khris is the one who might currently be considered for a MLB gig, and if he wants a bigger role, he probably won't find it as a Brewer LF. He apparently doesn't have a very strong arm, which is why some are calling for him to eventually end up at first base.

We had 2 1B go down with injuries. One will be coming back after ~45 games. Why should Melvin go out and get someone to cover those few at bats? Who would want to come to play for only that short of time? Gonzalez will probably be around an upper .600's to lower .700's OPS hitter. He's fine as a SS, but should in no way be considered as a 1B. If we can't find anyone in our system who would be a better short-term replacement than that, then the GM has to be at fault. I believe Morris and Green should be head-and-shoulders above Gonzalez in the race for 1B, and I'd even be willing to throw a 1B glove on Davis or Gindl before I'd put Gonzalez there (and I hate playing players out of position). Simply put, there is no reason Gonzalez should be considered as an option to be an everyday first baseman at the MLB level.

I wouldn't mind getting Harang as long as we didn't have to give up much besides salary relief. According to Ken Gurnick at MLB.com, the contract is $5MM this year with an option for 2014 for $8MM with a $2MM buyout, so we'd be on the hook for a guaranteed $7MM minimum, or $13MM if we exercised the option. It's not a bad contract, so really the only thing lost would be the chance for the young guys to "show us what they've got at the big league level." I would guess it would mean Peralta would start the year in AAA (giving us another year's service time from him) and Narveson and Rogers would fight it out for fifth starter / long man. Hellwig's chances of making the Brewers would probably diminish, but it would make for a fun-to-watch Nashville rotation (Peralta, Thornberg, Hellwig, Burgos, Bucci) edit: "and if the orioles are in the bidding it will be too costly for the return." That was my concern as well. If we'd have to give up something decent in return, I'd pass. Melvin seems okay at these type deals (Morgan, Hairston), so hopefully the prospect we'd give up would be useless.

Winning more now results in more money sooner which covers the opportunity cost, it also spreads the risk over a lot longer period.. The value of the actual dollars just goes down with time as well. If you could sign a player for 30 years at $1M a year it would blow away a deal that was say 3 years for $15M in value to the team, even though the 2nd deal pays the player half as much. As I mentioned, I understand the theory. However, there is a point where it no longer works. Lets say, for example, that we could get 25 stars to sign 30 year deferred deals for $4MM / year. We could afford the $100MM today, and could potentially win the World Series with our 25 star players. However, as the players retired, we would still owe $100MM/year for a long time and would therefore have no money left to pay guys to actually play. We'd have 20-some years of teams with a very limited payroll. My worry with deferred contracts is that they can lead to bad financial behavior in the same way that people misuse "six month same as cash" deals. Stores use "six month same as cash" deals because it gets people to buy things they otherwise wouldn't, often causing them to disregard financial logic. They feel they need that new living room set now, and then realize in six months that paying off the furniture means that they don't have money for other things. If deferred deals were bad for the stores, they wouldn't offer them. The stimulated demand more than makes up for the miniscule loss in purchasing power over a short period. Plus, there's no guarantee that we get "more money sooner." Last year, we spiked our payroll, and probably had less revenue than we had the previous year. The only thing guaranteed are the contracts (outflows). There is no guarantee that revenues will correlate (positively or negatively) with payroll.

I don't know that I'd use the term "whipping boy," but the player I'm most worried about is Axford. I know it's early in meaningles spring games, but coming off his lackluster 2012, he's gotten shelled in his first couple appearances this spring. He needs to right his ship, as he's a big determining factor as to whether the Brewers have any shot at the playoffs or if this is going to be a really ugly season for the Brewers. I also worry that Gonzalez is going to end up being our regular first baseman while Hart's out. He shouldn't be the "whipping boy" if that happens, Roenicke and Melvin should.

Looks like Marcum is going to pitch tomorrow (Tuesday, March 5). The Mets are just keeping a watchful eye on him because of past injuries.