monty57

Done pursuing free agent starting pitchers does not mean done looking at ways to improve the starting rotation. I believe Doug will either: 1) Trade Hart and / or Gomez for young starting pitching 2) Trade a package of prospects for an MLB-proven starting pitcher In the recent past, he has gone with option #2. I think there's a good chance he goes for option #1 this offseason. It does seem to mean that he's not going to kick the tires on adding someone like Marcum, which I think is an idea that should at least be given a look.

That's why I said "Note that playing a position and playing it well are two different things. I didn't see him play, I just saw that the Angels played him there." :-) The only way this would be feasible is if the Angels needed to trade him because they have nowhere to play him, and somehow the Brewers ended up landing him cheaply. I agree with you that this probably won't happen. However, if (big if) they could land him for a several "B level" prospects (guys who are good, but are behind some other Brewers prospects) and could trade Hart for a Choo-type return (Top 10/Top 25 prospect), then they could have 1B shored up cheaply for four years and add an elite prospect to the system. I'm generally not for trading from our prospect pitching depth, but if it means ending up with four years of Trumbo in his prime and a Trevor Bauer-type prospect, then I'm all for it. Again, probably not going to happen, but it's fun to dream.

I like Aoki. From the minute they won the bid, I said they should trade Morgan while his value was somewhat high and let Aoki take his role (at the time Morgan was slated to be the LH part of a CF platoon with Gomez). When they got him for the steal of the deal they signed him to, I was very happy. I was only upset that Roenicke said he was going to be his "right handed bat off the bench." Aoki performed to what should have been his expectations after his stellar career in Japan. However, I've pretty much gotten over "loving" a player. I love the Brewers and want them to do whatever is best for the team. Most likely, that will be starting Aoki in RF full-time in 2012. However, we don't know what will happen between now and then, and Melvin should always be on the lookout for anything that would help the team now and into the future. If a team called Melvin tomorrow and made a ridiculous offer for Aoki, I would hope that Melvin would accept the offer.

the TV $ did not stream down to the Brewers it seems? The biggest discrepancy is the local TV deal, from which the Brewers' contract rose from $12MM to $21MM per year, while bigger market teams are signing for $100-200+ million per year. The national TV money, which all teams split, kicks in in 2014, and it seems most teams have already spent that. For instance, the Reds used it to lock up Votto. The Brewers chose to use theirs to structure the Ramirez deal the way they did. The Brewers should have money to spend after 2014, but the local TV deals are really turning this into David vs Goliath. At least we can see how one David (Tampa) is slaying giants, and hopefully we'll emulate their methodology. My initial reaction when I read this was that Melvin needs to get Morales from them and flip Hart for some pitching. Morales will be in his final year of arbitration next year, and Boras is his agent. Unless we got Morales for nothing and got really good pitching for Hart, this probably doesn't work. I'd just as soon let Gamel play 1b. However... Go for Trumbo. That be a nice 3-4-5 Trumbo is going into his final pre-arby year and is just now hitting his prime (will be 27 in January), so that would be much better. Trumbo a huge downgrade from Hart. Would have to be some good pitching. Trumbo hit for a line of .268 avg / .317 OBP / .491 SLG / .808 OPS and has four years of cheap team control remaining. Hart hit for a line of .270 avg / .334 OBP / .507 SLG / .841 OPS, but makes $10MM in his final year of team control. Trading for Trumbo and then moving Hart for a top prospect is a good idea, as we could have a good hitting, inexpensive, MLB-proven 1B for his prime years, plus land a top prospect for Hart. It just depends on what it would take to land Trumbo, as I'm sure there would be a number of suitors for him if the Angels let everyone know he's on the market. Whoever was going to trade the good prospect for Hart may just decide to trade him to the Angels for Trumbo. As an added benefit, Trumbo played 101 games in the corner OF spots for the Angels in 2012, so if Morris proves himself at AAA, Trumbo could potentially move to RF when Aoki leaves. Note that playing a position and playing it well are two different things. I didn't see him play, I just saw that the Angels played him there. Probably not going to happen, but it's fun to think about, and I'd love to see it come to fruition.

[language deleted --1992] Doug!! What a shame... You better pray to God that this young Rotation doesn't suck in 2013... We have the BEST offense in the NL and your going to waste it!! Looks like that offense will have to get us 6-8 runs every game!! Well, I guess when you spend 80-90% of your money on position players, generally refusing to let a young non-elite prospect see the field or trade expensive players away even when it may seem logical, you are going to have to hope the expensive guys you've got can do a good job, as there's no money left over for pitching. I agree that I'd like to see Melvin dig around to find Marcum or some other vet looking to regain value on a one-year deal. I don't think Melvin is shutting the door on all remaining options, but on the surface it looks goofy that Dempster was our all-in guy, and if that didn't work out we were going to spend the money on a couple of so-so relievers and hope for the best. Since I have more faith in Melvin than that, the next move would seem to be a trade of some sort. That either means trading prospects for a guy with 1-2 years of team control remaining, or our trading a vet for prospects. I hope we don't do the former, but as to the latter, recent events could open up the possibility of Melvin trading away Gomez or Hart. The Upton deal shows teams are willing to pay big money for slugging, good defense CFs, so that ups Gomez's value. The Choo trade shows that a player who could be called similar to Hart can bring a Top 10 prospect in trade. The Dempster signing gets Melvin's attention turned away from apparently the only FA he was interested in. We'll see where it goes from here.

If the contracts are the same at one year, it's a toss up (assuming Marcum is healthy), but at multiple years, I'd take Dempster. The more likely decision, however, would be signing Marcum to a one-year deal or Dempster to a higher cost, multi-year deal, in which case that's not even a close choice for me... Marcum in a heartbeat, again assuming Marcum is healthy.

If he's healthy (the Brewers should know), Marcum on a one-year, incentive-laden deal is about the best situation I can envision for the Brewers' 2013 rotation. I figured the ship had sailed, but maybe if no one is offering the deal Marcum wants, he'll be willing to sign with the Brewers. That would be a low-risk, high-reward signing, which could get us a good "bridge" to 2014, when we should have enough homegrown pitchers to fill the rotation without too many innings-limit worries.

I think he was saying that to state that Hart's trade value would be improved because the team who trades for Hart could also get the comp pick if the trade is done this offseason. I do agree that the Choo deal helps the Brewers if they are looking to trade Hart. I'd be really happy with a Top 10 prospect in return for Hart, so I would hope that Melvin uses the Choo deal as leverage and lands someone who can be a core player for Milwaukee for a long time.

I'm fine with starting the season with an OF of Braun, Gomez, Aoki with Schafer and Gamel as the backups. I'd also be fine with trading either of Gomez/Aoki if the right deal came along, as I have confidence that Schafer can be a MLB starter, and if Gamel can show any aptitude in the corner OF spots, he could be our best option for RF in the near future. Aoki was a good pickup by Melvin (although I think he was surprised he got him with the low bid). He helps the team for a low price, and I do like high OBP guys in front of our sluggers, but he certainly isn't "untouchable." If someone wanted to trade for him bad enough, I'd trade him. Conversely, if he would be willing to sign an extension for the low rate we're currently paying him (around $1.5-2MM/year), then I wouldn't be opposed to extending him, as there's little risk at that cost. I wouldn't extend him at $8-10MM/year, which is probably closer to what he'd get in free agency.

Baseball has 10 times as many games on all days of the week which makes a large national contract practically impossible. It will take time (at least as long as these new TV deals are signed for), but eventually, I believe all baseball will be viewed through some mix of MLB TV on the television and MLB.tv on the internet (I think in the not-too-distant future all TV will go through the internet, but that's for another discussion). At that point, we would come as close as we ever have to having economic equality in baseball. MLB would get all the ad revenue and/or pay-for-view revenue without sharing it with the networks, so baseball will have a lot more money, but it will be evenly split because that's what (I believe) Selig put into the contract for MLB TV and MLB internet content. I'd guess that's why so many teams/networks are signing long-term deals now. The teams want to keep their advantage as long as possible, and the networks don't want to lose the ad revenue. Until (and if) that happens, the Brewers are going to once again be "small market," as their paltry raise in revenue from their TV deals can't hope to compete with the deals being signed by many other teams.

That pretty much sums it up for me. The Brewers are starting to look like a team that could be in for an extended cycle where young starting pitchers are forcing their way into the MLB rotation, allowing us to trade away more expensive "proven" guys who are nearing the end of their contract to replenish the farm. We're not quite there yet, but could be soon. This trade showcases how difficult it is for a team/GM to stick to a plan of patiently waiting to reap the fruit from a stocked farm system. As soon as it's nearly ready, it's really easy to trade it away to "win now." Meanwhile Tampa has shown that if you show some patience and execute the plan to fruition, you can beat the system and remain competitive even with a low payroll. You never need to "go all in" if you continue to execute your plan.

I really believe he has been part of the core everyone always talks about, but is never mentioned as part of it. I agree that Hart has been a part of the core, and I agree that he has been underappreciated. That said, the question is whether he should remain a part of the core going forward. Every team has a limited payroll, and the Brewers' is more limited than some others, yet they still need to field a team of 25 players. If Melvin tries to retain the same "core players" through their careers, the number of players in the "core" necessarily has to shrink as the players become more expensive. Therefore more of the 25-man roster has to be "non-core." I prefer what I call the "malleable core." Instead of trying to sign everyone through their career, build a core where aging core players are traded/let walk as younger, less expensive players prove they're "core players" and are extended on Lucroy-style contracts. One year of Hart on a new deal will probably cost about as much as Lucroy's entire contract. Trading Greinke last year brought in at least one new core player in Segura. I would expect Melvin to attempt to lock him up to a Lucroy-style deal in the near future. Trading Hart could potentially bring in a core player at a different position. I expect some of our young pitchers to prove they're part of the core in the next couple of years. We can't afford too many eight-figure salaries on the roster, but we could afford a lot of Lucroy-type deals, and the Lucroy-type deals bear a lot less financial risk and are much easier to trade if a new "core player" comes along. I doubt we could extend Hart while holding on to Braun, Yo, Weeks and Ramirez, and still be able to lock up young players while filling in other holes through free agency. We just don't have the resources. It's amazing how having a $500k player on the roster instead of a $10-15MM player can change the dynamics of roster building. I like Hart, and applaud what he has done for the Brewers. However, if we could trade him for a Segura-level player who could be an inexpensive part of our core for the next 6-8 years, I'd do it in a heartbeat (no pun intended).

Then why are the Brewers cutting payroll by roughly 20% year-over-year, with Melvin unwilling to sign a deal for over 2-years? The new TV money is why the salaries are escalating, and probably why the Brewers have been able to increase payroll over the past few seasons. Teams are spending their expected future revenues before they get it. The Brewers apparently spent theirs on the back-end loaded Ramirez deal, which coincidentally balloons in 2014. Whether it's statistically deemed "worth it" or not, the contract is constraining Melvin's ability at the present time. It was signed to help push us over the edge in 2012 while we had Greinke and Marcum, and I'm sure when Melvin signed it he knew it would hamstring him going forward. We owe the money to Ramirez (and Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, etc), so we can't spend it elsewhere. When you lock yourself into long-term guaranteed commitments, and the budget shrinks, your hands become tied. In simplified form, that's why so many people lost their houses over the past few years. At least Melvin has the option of trading away a good player to free up some cash to upgrade elsewhere, or he has the option of putting out a super offense with a suspect pitching staff which could at least be fun to watch for the high scoring. Until the Ramirez contract is gone, or we trade Weeks, Braun or Yo, I don't expect any more big name signings in Milwaukee. Rather, I expect that we'll have decent teams over the next two years (with a lot of the success riding on how quickly the young arms develop), looking at building a new core for 2015 and beyond.

I'm always wary of taking a promising starting pitcher and putting him in the pen for a year and then assuming he will be decent in that role and that he can get back to where he was as a starter the next season when you need him to be a starter. But that is just me. I completely agree. I don't want the Brewers to put guys they expect to be MLB starters into the MLB bullpen. Hopefully, we have enough minor league arms coming up that some will be successful as MLB starters and some of those who won't make it as starters will fill in the bullpen. We are finally near the point where we could have a homegrown rotation and bullpen playing in their pre-arby/arby years. We will hopefully lock the studs up to Lucroy-type deals and cycle the rest: as one starts to get expensive, we trade him for some good young players and supplant him with another solid young arm from the farm. This is what I'm pinning my hopes on for the Brewers to remain competitive as salaries around the league are skyrocketing while the Brewers' payroll is declining.

That said in my post above, 2 years / $8 MM does seem reasonable for Burnett. He's not necessarily a LOOGY, as his three-year split OPS against vs LHP is .616 and vs RHP is .675. It doesn't seem like a bad pickup at that price. It does, however showcase why building a bullpen through free agency can get expensive quickly. Hopefully we will be able to field a homegrown bullpen in a year or two. The problem for the 2013 Brewers is that while 2 years / $8MM for a LH relief pitcher is reasonable in today's market, it would constitute 5% of their payroll, which is already tight. Can we possibly afford to sign two relievers and a starting pitcher to 2-year deals without trading someone, or is our bullpen going to consist of other teams' castoffs?

When supply and demand remain constant (25 players per team, 30 teams) and the money multiplier remains relatively stable (GMs don't stop spending), then a massive increase in "money supply" (as caused by the huge new TV deals) will result in a massive increase in player salaries. The value of "dollars per win" will need to be revisited, as players - including relief pitchers - are all becoming much more expensive. I expect this trend will continue until the new TV deals are signed, the money's committed, and "money supply" becomes more constant at the new, higher level, at which point the salaries will somewhat flatten out until the next big revenue stream is found. Suddenly the extra $9MM or so that the Brewers are getting from their new FSN deal doesn't seem like much. It will help us pay for two middling relief pitchers.

As long as we're talking about 36 Million guaranteed no matter what, a back loaded deal is good for the team. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. If you are fiscally responsible, then yes. How many MLB GM's are long-term fiscally responsible? If you ink the deal and then realize that you do not have the $20MM of payroll room in two years, then creating a massive future liability can be very harmful to the team. Signing that deal when the payroll drops 20% or so (as it appears will occur from 2012 to 2013 for the Brewers) can be especially harmful. Signing an appreciating pay schedule to a depreciating asset can also be harmful. The present value of a dollar benefit can often be overvalued, while the need to have dollars to pay future bills is often overlooked. We had a cheap year of Ramirez where we "underpaid" him while our payroll was maxed out, so all the stat sites that try to measure the cost of a win say it was great. Meanwhile, we now have a $30MM liability for two more years of Ramirez, when the total payroll outflow for those two seasons will likely be around $160-180MM. Adding that to the already existing liabilities of the Braun, Yo, Weeks and Hart contracts ties up most of our payroll over the next two seasons, leading us to situations like the one being discussed in this thread... what's better, trading one of the offensive guys we like or going into the season with holes in our pitching? We don't have the financial flexibility to fix our holes with the guaranteed contract liabilities we have on the books. Comparing the TV deal the Brewers got with the deals other teams signed makes it apparent that financial disparity in MLB is getting larger in the future. If Melvin cares about future Brewer teams, he needs to continue looking for deals where we trade aging vets with limited term contracts (no matter how loved the player may be) for younger, cheaper talent with years of team control. He needs to continue to lock up "core" talent when the opportunity presents itself, but not be afraid to move on when new, younger, cheaper guys emerge. I like the Greinke for Segura trade. It was huge for the future of the Brewers. I like that Melvin has said he's not signing a veteran FA SP for 3+ years. I like that Melvin is at least looking into trading players (like Hart) who are entering into their final year of their contract. If the offer's not there, then of course don't make a deal, but if Melvin can parlay one year of Hart into six years or so of a talented young player, then make the deal.

We are continually bombarded with the belief that resources are unlimited and all wants can be fulfilled by simply mortgaging the future. Reality is setting in. While wants are unlimited, resources are not. Should we revisit the affordability of the Ramirez contract now, as I have been continually told that how it's structured doesn't matter. The fact that Melvin back-loaded it in an effort to win in 2012 when we couldn't afford to pay him more than $6MM is the reason that the Brewers now have a huge liability in 2014 which will make them less able to make other moves they may wish to make. That (not the belief that Ramirez isn't good) is the reason so many here were on board with trading him when the opportunity seemed to arise this past season. The past is the past, and what's done is done. It seems we're seeing a change in Melvin's philosophy, which often happens when budget crunches hit. It's not like no one could see this budget crunch coming, as I and others on this sight (without all the info Melvin has) have warned of it's coming for a couple of seasons. Hopefully this is a revelation and we act in a fiscally responsible manner going forward. We have some promising young arms coming up, and with some luck we should have the tools to remain playoff relevant into the future. To me, contemplating trading Hart for prospects makes a lot more financial sense at this time than the proposals floating around of trading our prospects for one or two years of a vet. The Greinke-for-Segura+ deal saved the Brewers a heck of a lot of future headaches. Getting the right deal for Hart or Ramirez could solve some more. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Yeah, terms like mental issues or mentally weak shouldn't be read as "ignorant," and no ones saying he should be locked up. It takes a lot of mental toughness to be able to be a professional athlete, probably moreso in baseball than other sports. If you get down on yourself over something like a bad outing and carry that into future outings, you are probably not going to make it. Parra has enough "raw stuff" that he will get more chances than some other players, but if he can't get over some of his issues, he certainly wouldn't be the first guy with a "million dollar arm" who failed. I've followed him since he was in Beloit, so I'd like to see him succeed, even if it's not with the Brewers.

To put it in perspective, signing someone like Greinke would take 100%+ of the annual TV revenue of the Brewers, while teams like the Angels have TV deals which pretty much pay their entire payroll (which of course is much higher than the Brewers). Attanasio added a lot of "alternate revenue streams," which coupled with the increase in attendance to allow the Brewers to increase their payroll in the recent past. Risk management would seem to preclude that the Brewers brass wouldn't assume 3 million in attendance going forward while generating their budgets. Therefore, I'd only expect Melvin/Attanasio to max out payroll in years in which they feel a World Series (or at least a division championship) is a distinct possibility, as they presumably were going into 2012. Our hopes going into the future (all things remaining the same in the MLB revenue structure) rely on growing talent on the farm, extending "core" players while they are still in their pre-arby years, and trading away guys when (A) they get expensive and (B) we have younger, less expensive alternatives in the system. This may seem pretty obvious, but it's not really the strategy Melvin's used to this point (in his defense, we were growing revenue up to this point), and it's hard to stick to your guns when everyone else is throwing money around the way they have been in the recent past. We have a good, although somewhat aging, core. We have a lot of depth in high-upside pitching coming up through the ranks. Those are both good things, and if Melvin acts shrewdly and we have some luck with our young pitching remaining healthy and productive, we could still be a relevant team for the foreseeable future. This TV deal just shows that the Brewers have a significant uphill battle to remain in playoff contention relavtive to their competition.

With the young pitching the Brewers have coming up over the next few years, I've been against the Brewers signing anyone to a multi-year deal, so I'm glad to see guys like Dempster pricing themselves (in dollars and years) out of the Brewers' range... not because he couldn't help the 2013 Brewers (he could) but because we will have an excess of starting pitching soon, so there will be no reason to have an aging starter making an eight figure salary. The Brewers should have surplus cash next year, so the best move may be to look for a "salary dump" player with one year left on his contract who they could get for little in trade as long as they pick up the contract. That player could eat up innings to rest some of the young arms (the ones who aren't ready for 200 innings) and could always be flipped mid-season if the Brewers aren't in it.

Maybe it shouldn't be assumed that Harper can't play CF, but if you get a better defensive player, it seems logical to move the worse defender to a corner OF spot. Aoki could play CF, but with Gomez around, Aoki plays RF. With Harper's arm, he could be the best RF in baseball, and being "new" to the OF, it could take a lot of pressure off of him to have him play RF instead of CF.

And I expect you to be happy with the move. But reading many sources a lot of people are buying into that 3.03 ERA as an expectation and that is not going to end well if that is your expectation. Obviously with RP you can get just about anything since the expected range of ERA for a 3.50 ERA RP over 60 innings is something like 2.50-4.50. He is a 6th/7th inning guy more than an 8th/9th guy and he is more of a matchups play. Still useful but I just hope people have realistic expectations. That's certainly fair. Badenhop looks like a little better version of Kam Loe. I like that he doesn't walk guys, and I like that he does perform a task well (getting RHB out). However, if he is used incorrectly, he probably won't perform well. Loe should never have been considered "the 8th inning guy." Roenicke is the guy who put him there and Melvin had to trade for K-Rod to get Loe out of that role. I would expect a "big name" added to the bullpen this offseason who will be the setup guy. If we don't get that "big name," I wouldn't be surprised to see a guy coming off a 3.03 ERA season cemented into the "8th inning guy" role, which could be disasterous. As a 6th/7th inning guy who is predominantly used vs RHP, I like this pickup.

...and a NY Times article reported the new deal will roughly triple that, ergo the estimate of around $30MM for the new deal.

Gomes is the type guy who would be a perfect fit in Milwaukee, but if right-handed, platoon corner OFs / RH bats off the bench demand 2 year / $10MM deals, then I hope we stay out of the pool. This is an example of how utilizing a player correctly can greatly increase his value. Sure, Gomes had a nice "slash line" of .262 avg / .377 OBP / .491 SLG / .868 OPS, but it's only in 279 AB because the A's wisely used him mainly against LHP (164 AB vs LHP .974 OPS, 115 AP vs RHP .715 OPS). The A's of course aren't getting compensated for this, but it's why I lobbied for the Brewers to trade Morgan after the 2011 season, and why Kam Loe could be valueable if used correctly. That said, this is a big overpay, as he should only get 1/2 seasons worth of PAs. If he gets more than that it's because he's getting a lot of PAs against RHP, which will cause the Red Sox nation to scream.