monty57

Only contending teams trade for rentals. Ramirez is not a rental. He's signed for two more years, so it's not only contending teams that would trade for him right now. I don't know whether you'd get a better return by trading him now or in the offseason. The first question that needs to be answered is whether Melvin is seriously considering trading him. I'm happy the Brewers finally decided we could trade someone, and we got a lot of future potential for a handful of Greinke starts. I'm less convinced that Melvin/Attanasio have completely jumped onboard the "go young and play for 2014" bandwagon. Hart makes loads of sense to trade because he's got a lot of value and is gone after next season unless we want to sign him to an expensive deal through his mid-30's. Ramirez makes loads of sense to trade because he's owed $30MM for two more years of service and his inept bat through the start of the season is a big reason his team is normally looking to sell around the time his bat heats up. If the trade value of 0.5 years of Greinke = 1.5 years of Hart = 2.5 years of Ramirez, just think how stocked the upper levels of our farm could get really quickly, and think how quickly we could turn back into a playoff contender. If we decided to go young and play for 2014, Hart and Ramirez should both be traded. However, I think that there is a good chance that Melvin and Attanasio will hold onto both Hart and Ramirez because they feel it will appease the fanbase and make the team better in 2013, even though it will probably hurt the team in 2014 and beyond. Holding out hope that expensive, aging "hometown heroes" would rise to playoff glory is what got the Astros where they are. Signing expensive vets to bad contracts in order to "keep a window open" is what got the Cubs and now the Phillies where they are. I don't want to fall into those traps any further. Trade them, bring back some exciting young players who will probably have some bumps in 2013, but will get better and give us a chance to be good for an extended period. That, to me is far better than miring ourselves in mediocrity for a few years before everything falls apart.

I'm not sure I want to live in a world where the Pirates (and off-topic, the Cubs) are being run competently. I think that started for the Pirates a few years back, but since it wasn't happening at the MLB level, people didn't believe it existed. Now you have people believing that the Pirates are smoke and mirrors, when really they've got a lot of talent in their organization. There are ways of finding talent if you take some risk and if you give yourself financial flexibility. If you don't want to take risk, talent costs a lot of money over a lot of years, which eliminates your financial flexibility.

I'm not sure why the Cardinals like to trade top prospects for relief pitchers Because they know some nobody, journeyman or washed-out player will sign with them for nothing and suddenly become an All Star. When that repeatedly happens year-in and year-out, there is less need to value your prospects.

Take the emotion out of it. Greinke chose free agency because he wants to see what the market would pay him. It's as easy as that. The only real hope for the Brewers to sign Greinke is for the market to not be nearly as high as he hopes. If the top offer is close to what the Brewers offered, and he has some reason not to want to play for the city/team making the offer, then he could fall back to the Brewers' offer, assuming it is still on the table. He's not going to turn down a $150MM deal to take the Brewers' $112MM (or whatever they offered) deal, but he may turn down a $115MM deal, or at least call the Brewers to see if they'd pony up the additional $3MM. Or, there is always the chance that no one offers more than the Brewers offered. We can assume the market offer is going to be well above the Brewers' offer, but until the offseason, we won't know.

That really makes no sense. Even if they had a deal in place to trade Lucroy or Maldonado, why wouldn't they just bring up the guy they just signed to AAA (Quinteros?). It's not like they're going to win this season, so trading away anything for a vet who's going to leave at the end of the season wouldn't seem like a good idea. I could like this is if we were trading one of the "salary dump" guys (Wolf, K-Rod, Veras, Loe or Parra), but I don't think the Red Sox are that dumb.

I just wish they'd have done this weeks ago instead of bringing Thornburg up as a bullpen arm. Maybe this coupled with the Peralta deal earlier in the year will put an end to the "bring a promising starter up to sit in the bullpen" idea. I just hope Thornburg settles right back into a starting role at AAA.

Sometimes typos are funny. I meant 1-year/$8MM or 3-years/$24MM. Not 8-years / $24MM. Marcum knows he's probably only got one chance at a multi-year deal, and he knows that teams are going to balk at signing him to a big money deal after missing time this year due to "elbow stiffness." I really think we could get him on a one-year deal for significantly less than the $12MM qualifying offer, so I'd sign him to the one-year incentive-laden deal. Little risk to the Brewers and a lot of potential gain. He'd be a good fit in the rotation, and if we're out of it at the deadline he ought to be able to be traded for a decent return.

Ya, I haven't been able to find this quote anywhere either, and it seems like a quote that would be passed around. Plus it doesn't really mesh with other statements that he'd be interested in the Brewers trying to sign him in the off-season, and McCalvy saying that Lucroy thinks the Brewers have a legit shot at re-signing him. Though it does sound very similar to something I heard Buehrle say to 1250 WSSP in a "Know the enemy" segment a few weeks ago, so it could be possible that Greinke was initially excited about the prospect of hitting, but found out he didn't like it as much in practice. Not really smart for a guy who just turned down a $112MM or so contract because he wanted to test the market in free agency to immediately say that he was eliminating half the teams who may want to bid for his services. It's also unlike Greinke, who has been good at hitting and has always said he loves hitting, to say he didn't like hitting. Maybe those words came from Greinke, but it would really be odd of him to say them. A team like the Dodgers could very easily be the top bidder for Greinke after the season.

That was why it was so crucial to extend Greinke. Now that he's gone, he's not coming back. The Brewers are never going to sign the number one rated free agent. There's really nothing out there to improve the team in free agency outside of some arms for the bullpen. I believe that Peavy has a huge option, but if he keeps dealing I'm sure the White Sox will pick it up. Combine that with the fact that they don't really have the ammo to swing any deals for veterans, and the short term prognosis looks pretty bleak. We've had some decent success with the few players from the minors who we've brought up to help the Brewers. Hopefully the success of guys like Fiers, Lucroy and Maldonado will be enough evidence to show that we don't always need to block guys with expensive vets. I'm fine with signing a vet to a one-year deal if Peralta/Thornburg aren't MLB ready to start next year, as we can always flip him at the deadline when Peralta/Thornburg/whoever is ready. We need some bullpen guys just because we don't have enough arms in the minors to fill out the bullpen if we let Loe/Veras/Parra walk. If we use 2013 to let Fiers, Estrada, Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers, Schafer, Gamel, Segura, Maldonado, Green, Davis, etc get some playing time for league minimum, we should know going into 2014 what holes we have to fill and we should have money to fill them. Some of these guys should be good, and we can give them "Lucroy-type" extensions. Some will be average, and there's a big need for average players playing for league minimum. Some won't cut it and will be replaced. 2013 is a good testing ground, and we could be competitive again as soon as 2014. Our minor league pitching isn't the wasteland it was five or so years ago, so our future isn't dependant on signing a $20MM guy to headline the rotation. The good thing is that if we have a bunch of guys playing for league minimum, we could afford the $20MM guy if we decide in a year or two that we need him. Signing Greinke wasn't imperative for future success, and it could prove that his turning down the offer was very good for the franchise.

A lot will depend on what we see for the rest of this season. Gallardo's a lock, and Fiers and Estrada have probably pitched themselves into rotation spots. If Rogers gets an extended stay and looks ready, he could lock in a spot, and Peralta and Thornburg should be ready by next year as well. As Eye Black at Night mentioned, I could see the Brewers bringing in a vet on a one-year deal, but unless they are somehow able to sign 28-year-old ace Greinke, I doubt they'll offer a multi-year deal to a starting pitcher. I think there's a good chance that if Marcum is healthy, he'll sign a one-year deal with the Brewers to build his value back up. I'd be fine with doing a one-year deal, as we could always flip him at the deadline and insert one of our prospects who looks ready. We've finally got some promising arms getting near-MLB-ready, so I hope we don't sign a 3-4 year deal to a 30-something and end up blocking our young guys. The bullpen's a different story. It's getting easier and easier to envision the Brewers non-tendering Loe, Veras and Parra, which would mean we'd need to do an almost complete rebuild. I like the Kottaras trade, and could see someone like Morgan getting traded for a bullpen arm. Even with that, we will most likely sign a veteran arm or two in free agency.

I would think that the recent news of Aramis' "nagging wrist injury" will put a damper on trade demand for him. At this point, I'd be pretty surprised if Ramirez gets traded.

They don't have to, but I bet that they will. With all the free agent defections and non tenders, there should be at least 25 million off the books for next season. Trade Hart or Ramirez and you are in the 35-40 million range. But trading Hart is not really about the money, as he's signed for a pretty reasonable salary next season ($10.333MM). To me, it's that the Brewers probably aren't going to be a playoff team next year, and Hart will be a free agent after the season. We can either trade him, let him walk as a free agent or extend him. Of those three options, I'd prefer trading him and if that's the direction we're headed, he should get much more return if the trade is done prior to the start of next season. The fact that the Brewers would have a lower payroll and more financial flexibility is an added benefit, but not the main reason I would like to see Hart traded. If he wasn't a free agent until after the 2014 season, I doubt his name would be coming up nearly as often in trade rumors. I honestly think the chances are better that Hart signs an extension this offseason than gets traded. You could be right, and that wouldn't be the end of the world, but I'd rather see him traded. We have Aoki playing for 10% of Hart's salary next season in RF and Gamel at 5% of his salary at 1B. Both of them should be able to be competent MLB players. Then we have Kh Davis just getting moved up to AAA and knocking the cover off the ball, and Hunter Morris playing well in AA. Hart signed a "Brewer friendly" extension before, but would make quite a bit more to extend again, and I think we're going to have younger, cheaper options over the next few seasons making Hart expendable. If we could get a "Greinke-style" return for Hart, we could really stock up our farm, setting us up for good things in the not-too-distant future. Maybe Attanasio would be in for a rebuild and he would consider the drop in attendance to be OK because of the lower payroll, but I doubt it. We're not that far off from being a good MLB team, so I don't think a complete "blow up" is anywhere on the radar. I think we'll be down a bit next season because there's a chance we'll have 3-4 "unproven" guys in the starting rotation. If Fiers and Estrada can continue to pitch the way they have, we could be a decent team next year, but I'm not holding out hopes for a playoff run in 2013. We have a pretty good AA team, and they should be MLB ready by next season or 2014. If we use next year to "break in" guys like Segura, Schafer, Fiers, Peralta, Rogers, Davis, etc, we could find some gems. We'll then be able to spend some of the money prior to the 2014 season to fill any holes we'll have at that point and have a pretty good team. To topic, I just think that Hart fits into the plan better by getting traded for young guys than he does by playing out next season and leaving as a free agent, or by getting extended and blocking younger, cheaper guys who in 2-3 years could be better players than Hart.

I saw an honest post from someone who said the reason the Brewers stink this year is because we lost Counsell and his leadership. People have all kinds of really odd opinions. Yeah, it was obviously Kotsay, not Counsell :-)

While Greinke came through in Philly and it helped his trade value, the bullpen did just the opposite. Had K-Rod, Veras, Loe and Parra pitched well in that series, we probably could've gotten something in return. Now I'd be happy to trade them for nothing just to have someone else pay the rest of their contracts and allow for some guys to come up from AAA to get their feet wet and audition for a spot in the 2013 pen. Unfortunately, unless Melvin is able to swing a trade for someone, he is going to have to go to the FA market to pick up a couple of veterans for the pen next year, and that'll eat up $8-12MM of our payroll. I'm still holding out some hope (but not much) that someone like Morgan could get flipped for a young bullpen arm, because even if we decide that next year's a rebuild year, there's no way Melvin's going into the season with Axford and the 2012 Nashville bullpen.

If Melvin doesn't get a good offer now, there's no problem waiting for the offseason. I just think he should be traded prior to next season, as his trade value will drop after the start of next season. As to the Braves, Prado has been playing a lot of 3B and even SS, so they may have a spot for Hart. On that note, they may have a spot for Ramirez this offseason when Chipper's gone. I think right now they're looking for a stud SP, but if they set their sights on Hart, I'm sure Doug's still interested in their minor league pitching. I didnt realize Prado was playing those other positions. I would be very open sending Hart their way if they are willing to part with some pitching or a 3B prospect. Not sure what their system looks like Yeah, it shows how little faith the Braves have in Pastronicky. When Simmons went down, they called him up, but sat him on the bench while Prado played SS, and then traded for Janisch.

I don't doubt that Hart would put up better numbers than Gamel at 1B next year, but then he'd leave as a free agent. I'd let Gamel get a year at 1B (in a year we probably won't compete anyway) to see if he can be an answer at 1B for a few years, or at least to build up his trade value so we can move him when Morris is MLB ready. Right now, with 1.5 years of "control" at a reasonable price, Hart could probably bring a package similar to what we got for Greinke. If we wait until trade deadline next year, he would bring back significantly less. If we were stocking up for a World Series run in 2013, I'd keep Hart and let him help the Brewers as a player. In the situation we're in, I'd trade him and let him help the Brewers by bringing back some guys who can be part of the run in 2014 and beyond, and who we'll control for six years.

If Melvin doesn't get a good offer now, there's no problem waiting for the offseason. I just think he should be traded prior to next season, as his trade value will drop after the start of next season. As to the Braves, Prado has been playing a lot of 3B and even SS, so they may have a spot for Hart. On that note, they may have a spot for Ramirez this offseason when Chipper's gone. I think right now they're looking for a stud SP, but if they set their sights on Hart, I'm sure Doug's still interested in their minor league pitching.

I can't imagine Melvin is going to make roster moves based on what he thinks Greinke would feel about it. Trading Hart makes a lot of sense. First, as was just mentioned, the Brewers probably aren't odds-on favorites to contend next year, so Hart's good bat would be "wasted" in a down year before he bolts for free agency. Second, we have Aoki playing for 10% of Hart's salary in RF, and Gamel playing for 5% of Hart's salary at 1B. I like Hart, but we have in-house replacements for him. Finally, Hart should get a lot back in trade as he's good, he's signed to a reasonable deal for next year, and the receiving team would be able to get a comp pick for him. If we could trade Hart for some good players who we would "control" for six years at a low price, I think we should do it. As I've said before, I'm hoping for "young and exciting" in 2013 and "playoff contender" in 2014. Hart only fits in those plans as a trade chip. But in that role, he could be very important.

I really like the thought of bringing him back on a one-year deal, as he could help next year's team and we could flip him at the deadline if he's healthy and we're not in the race. As to a multi-year deal, I couldn't say until all the options are on the table. We may still trade Hart/Ramirez for a pitcher, we don't know who else will be on the FA market, etc. That said, if Hardricourt's tweet about the potential one-year deal is correct, then it is because Marcum knows he won't get much in a multi-year deal until he proves he can play injury-free. If we got him on a lowball deal (8/$24 or something) then it'd be hard to pass up.

Come on, Doug. We have a Ryan "Chocolate Wonderfall" Braun, but we need a "Cotton Candy Machine"!!! Prince already signed with Detroit.

The Angels will have to look in-house for help when it comes to their starting rotation, writes Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. A source with knowledge of the team's thinking described the Angels' chances of acquiring a starter as "below average and diminishing" as the asking prices are too high and the competition for pitching is intense. It's good news for the Brewers if the prospects being bantered about are too good for the Angels to compete.

Do bobblehead collectors really care who the bobblehead is, or if he even plays on the team? The Brewers could do a Roger Staubach bobblehead and it'd increase ticket sales. The fact that Ramirez would no longer be a Brewer would probably make it more "collectable." Regardless, I would hope the Brewers would be more interested in what's better for the team now and in the future and wouldn't be thinking about how a trade would affect a promotional gimmick.

I may be wrong, but I believe Baseball America puts more empahsis on scouting-based analysis (look at "stuff"), while Baseball Prospectus puts more emphasis on stat-based analysis. Of course both would use scouting and stats, just a little difference on what gets weighted more. That to me would mean that Perez has good "stuff" and just hasn't had the results some stat-based analysis would prefer. Of course, it could also be that he's working on a pitch or something and getting shelled while he tries to perfect it. Those things happen in the minors.

"Greinke likes it here" oh please If Greinke likes it here so much why didn't he sign that $115M offer? Comparing Braun and Greinke is a joke. Braun has been a Brewer since day 1 in his MLB career and he choose he wanted to finish a Brewer, and by doing so, took probably way less money than he could have made going elsewhere had he waited till FA like Prince. He also could have gone to a repeat contender but choose not too. Who knows his reasons. Fact is, he screwed himself out of $$$ and more chances to contend for a title by making the decision he did. Greinke has been a brewer for 1.5 years. He wanted off the Royals cause he wanted to win. He still wants to win. When lining up contenders, and who will contend for the forseeable future, the Brewers are hardly on the map. Greinke's friends on the team say he likes it here. They may know something a poster on a messge board doesn't. He probably didn't sign the extension because he wants to test the market, and I can't blame him. As I've mentioned, if another team beats the Brewers' offer, he's probably gone, but I'm not absolutely 100% certain what offers will be out there this offseason. No one is. I don't get why mentioning Braun is "a joke," unless it's just that it doesn't fit with your arguement. Every player has decisions to make. Braun decided to leave money on the table for his own reasons. Lucroy probably left money on the table. Matt Cain probably left money on the table. Greinke is testing the market, and I probably would in his situation as well. How long a player's been here or if he came up through the system isn't meaningful. Prince left, Braun, Hart and Weeks stayed. It's a personal decision, and you, me or anyone else doesn't know what's going on in Greinke's head. You assume what Greinke thinks and assert that as if you know what Greinke thinks. He will probably get a better offer on the market than the Brewers can match. He may not. If the Brewers are near or at the top of the offers on the market, he could sign with them.

Who is going to make the max offer? I can say that there is a good likelihood that someone will beat the Brewers' offer, but I can't state that as fact. We know the Brewers are willing to post a legitimate offer to sign Greinke. Until we see what the free agent market looks like (what the bids are), we won't know if the Brewers can be in on the auction. I don't necessarily want the Brewers to go all in for Greinke, but the offer they just gave was calculated using the current projected roster and contract liabilities owed. If they are able to get some young players who will be on the books for league minimum for a number of seasons, and they are able to rid themselves of other contract liabilities (like the $40MM owed Hart & Ramirez), then the offer for Greinke could probably be raised quite a bit. An example would be if they could get Olt (playing for $450k) and trade Ramirez ($30MM over two years) for a SP (playing for $450k) who would replace Wolf ($10MM), that would free up around $19MM for each of the next two seasons. If they trade Hart ($10.333MM) for say a SS playing for $450k, you've saved nearly $10MM plus Melvin probably assumed he'd need to spend $4-5MM on a SS next year and now he doesn't have to. That's around $14MM of assumed liability for next season gone. Plus, the young guys they'd get from the Greinke, Hart and Ramirez trades would bring back players who would be relatively cheap for the duration of Greinke's contract, and some could be signed to Lucroy-type extensions, helping assure that we wouldn't end up hitting a financial wall later in Greinke's tenure. Again, probably not going to happen, I don't know for sure if I'd like it to happen, but not a completely crazy idea.