monty57

The Brewers have had a lack of RH bats on the bench for quite a while. I don't know how the bench will shape up, but with the possibility of Gamel and Green starting nearly everyday, with Morgan getting 80% of the starts in center, I hope Melvin finds someone who can mash lefties to stick on the bench. Also, if McGehee is indeed due to get around $3MM as the rumors are stating, he may be gone and we'll need a replacement. I think finding a "trash heap" player would be a better option then paying McGehee that much. Without much insight other than what was written above, I think he looks like he'd at least be worth a minor league deal with ST invite.

..and the Cardinals would get a 2nd round pick for losing the best player in baseball.

Yes, Yuni is durable. I will never doubt that. He has zero range and zero plate discipline, but he could get hit by a train and he'd be back in the starting lineup the next day. I stated in my posts that if we were to sign Carroll, we would need a solid backup, as Carroll's not an everyday player. I thought he may be an option because Carroll and Hariston combined will probably only cost a little more than Barmes. I'd guess the extra year on the contract is a big reason why he chose the Twins. There is risk in giving a multi-year deal to a 38-year-old, and I could understand if Melvin wasn't willing to take that risk.

he's not going to average two lead off at bats per game even hitting after the pitcher. No, but he'd always bat in front of Hart/Braun/Weeks, allowing them to get more PAs with runners on base. If we don't find an "OBP guy" to bat in the 1 or 2 hole, then we will probably have to bat Hart or Weeks leadoff. Without Fielder, I think it's important for Hart and Weeks to bat in the middle of the order along with Braun. Since SS is really our only position where we could upgrade to a leadoff-type hitter, it'd be nice to get one. Barmes isn't a bad hitter for a SS, but he's likely to hit in the bottom of the order, meaning we'll probably go Weeks/Morgan/Hart/Braun with Gamel or Green hitting #5. That's more pressure on the rookies to be run producers right off the get go. "Stat guys" may say RBIs are meaningless, but that doesn't mean the media wouldn't crucify a rookie hitting in the 5 hole who wasn't knocking in runs. There's a lot of anti-Gamel sentiment out there already, and I'd like to take as much pressure off of him as possible.

I am not sold on the idea of MIA getting all 3. After my post above, I read that they're looking at increasing their payroll by around $30MM from 2011 to 2012. I don't know anything about their payroll obligations (arby raises, FA's leaving, etc), but $30MM wouldn't be enough for Pujols and Reyes, much less all three.

I am not sold on the idea of MIA getting all 3. After my post above, I read that they're looking at increasing their payroll by around $30MM from 2011 to 2012. I don't know anything about their payroll obligations (arby raises, FA's leaving, etc), but $30MM wouldn't be enough for Pujols and Reyes, much less all three.

I am not sold on the idea of MIA getting all 3. After my post above, I read that they're looking at increasing their payroll by around $30MM from 2011 to 2012. I don't know anything about their payroll obligations (arby raises, FA's leaving, etc), but $30MM wouldn't be enough for Pujols and Reyes, much less all three.

I'll mark this as a win for the Brewers and a stupid move by the Twins. Offensively he maybe better than what they had last year but this would be like the Brewers having Counsell play SS on an everyday basis two years ago. Horrible horrible horrible horrible horrible horrible move by the Twins. Carroll will probably won't even make it through half of the season without spending at least half of it on the DL with some kind of injury the Twins needed to get players who could stay healthy for the whole season not more DL bound players. I'll reserve judgement until I see what the Brewers end up doing at SS.

That makes more sense. He definitely doesn't have any power, but as a 1/2 hitter along with Morgan I really like that OBP. Hart, Weeks and Braun will get plenty of extra base hits to knock those base runners in. Without Fielder, I really want to find a SS who can bat in the top of the order so that Weeks and Hart can both hit in the middle of the order. Carroll is one of the few options we could get who could do that. Reyes will probably be a Marlin, Rollins will probably be a Phillie, and Carroll fits the role of 1/2 hitter better than Barmes. I wouldn't object to signing Barmes, but if we could have Carroll and Hairston for less than Barmes, it would probably be a better option. That, of course, is assuming that the Brewers feel Hariston can play SS enough to cover the 50 or 60 games Carroll will need off.

he's never had a OBP above league average as a regular Please clarify. He's got a career OBP of .356, and I can't imagine his PAs as a bench player would outweigh his PAs as a "regular." I really liked Carroll as a target at trade deadline this season. For the right price, he'd ba a good addition to the team, but we'd need to make sure to sign a good backup who could cover 50-60 games at SS. I guess if we got him & Hairston, they could combine to cover SS and back up 2B/3B. I doubt either of them could be counted on to play everyday anymore. Putting him with Morgan in the 1/2 holes would allow Hart/Braun/Weeks to cover the 3-4-5 spots with some runners on base in front of them, and allow Green and Gamel to "get their feet wet" in the bottom of the order. Most SS can't get on base, so Carroll would be one of the few who could legitimately be a top of the order guy. FWIW he made $2.285MM this year, so we could probably sign Hariston and Carroll for less than the price of Barmes, giving us plenty of money to use elsewhere. I just don't get the fascination with this guy. Decent defense and can get on base, but doesn't have any power... he's the anti-Yuni and will therefore be loved by most on this board :-)

jakesdaddio, I seem to have more faith than you in some of our players. If given the opportunity, Gamel and Green should be able to play at an acceptable MLB level. They may not be stars, but they should be average-to-above-average MLB players. We have Morgan and Gomez to cover CF until Schafer is ready, so I don't see any need for help there. Braun, Weeks and Lucroy are here long-term, and Hart is here for two years, although I think he'll be traded next offseason as some of our minor league OFs ought to be ready by then, and Hart could help bring in our true area of need, which is pitching. A lot can happen this offseason, and we'll have a much clearer picture as to the post-2012 Brewers in a month or two. Two things I think are very likely this offseason are that we will make a big effort to extend Greinke, which would give us a solid 1-2 punch for several years, and Melvin will find a SS who will be in place for at least a couple of seasons. If these two things happen, and Gamel and Green play to an acceptable level, then we will simply need to focus on pitching next offseason. Melvin has had more success in trades than in FAs in regards to pitching, so in addition to extending Greinke, I think Melvin will try to acquire one SP in a trade (probably for Hart and/or prospects next offseason or by "selling" Wolf/Marcum/Hart mid-season) and will rely on the legions of pitchers we've selected in the past few drafts to fill out the rotation going forward. I agree with Bucksman that the Brewers will probably have a quicker trigger than in the past to sell if the season isn't going their way, with Marcum, Hart and Wolf topping the list for potential trades. It is also possible that we trade Marcum or Wolf this offseason if the return is good (young SS or SP). This would allow for someone like Peralta to start this year, so we wouldn't have two rookies starting in 2013. Regardless, we are going to have to start relying on some of our minor leaguers to play significant roles at the MLB level. For this season, it will be Gamel and Green. Next year, it will probably be an OF (if Hart is traded) and some pitching. Some will succeed, and we'll probably extend them. Some will fail, and we'll replace them, but I don't see a complete rebuild anywhere in the future.

Sanchez is 28, with 3 years experience and a career OPS of .786. He should be heading into his first year of arby, so will start getting more expensive. I'm not a big MLE guy, but in another thread, it was listed that Gamel's MLE would put him around a .777 OPS. Now, Sanchez gets on base at a decent clip, and has played in a big park, so he'd probably get a boost from Miller Park, but I'd say the Brewers should shop elsewhere unless the price tag is really cheap. Sanchez would be safer than Gamel, but I wouldn't think it's worth trading for a 1B unless it would be a slam dunk upgrade over Gamel. Anyone who said the price would "start with Ryan Braun" is way off. An MVP-caliber player for an average-hitting 1B doesn't really seem quite fair. If we needed the salary room, and Florida would pick up Hart's whole salary, then a Hart-for-Sanchez trade might be fair. Hart's a better hitter, but costs more. That would weaken the Brewers, cause Gamel to play out of place in RF and I doubt the Marlins would take the whole salary on, so I wouldn't do that trade unless we needed the money for a serious upgrade elsewhere. Actually, Gamel for Sanchez would probably be a fair trade, as Sanchez is "MLB proven," while Gamel has more team control. As far as the rest of your post, it would be amazing if the Marlins landed Pujols, Reyes and Buehrle. That's a Yankee-esque offseason FA haul, and would certainly help fill the new stadium.

Sanchez is 28, with 3 years experience and a career OPS of .786. He should be heading into his first year of arby, so will start getting more expensive. I'm not a big MLE guy, but in another thread, it was listed that Gamel's MLE would put him around a .777 OPS. Now, Sanchez gets on base at a decent clip, and has played in a big park, so he'd probably get a boost from Miller Park, but I'd say the Brewers should shop elsewhere unless the price tag is really cheap. Sanchez would be safer than Gamel, but I wouldn't think it's worth trading for a 1B unless it would be a slam dunk upgrade over Gamel. Anyone who said the price would "start with Ryan Braun" is way off. An MVP-caliber player for an average-hitting 1B doesn't really seem quite fair. If we needed the salary room, and Florida would pick up Hart's whole salary, then a Hart-for-Sanchez trade might be fair. Hart's a better hitter, but costs more. That would weaken the Brewers, cause Gamel to play out of place in RF and I doubt the Marlins would take the whole salary on, so I wouldn't do that trade unless we needed the money for a serious upgrade elsewhere. Actually, Gamel for Sanchez would probably be a fair trade, as Sanchez is "MLB proven," while Gamel has more team control. As far as the rest of your post, it would be amazing if the Marlins landed Pujols, Reyes and Buehrle. That's a Yankee-esque offseason FA haul, and would certainly help fill the new stadium.

Sanchez is 28, with 3 years experience and a career OPS of .786. He should be heading into his first year of arby, so will start getting more expensive. I'm not a big MLE guy, but in another thread, it was listed that Gamel's MLE would put him around a .777 OPS. Now, Sanchez gets on base at a decent clip, and has played in a big park, so he'd probably get a boost from Miller Park, but I'd say the Brewers should shop elsewhere unless the price tag is really cheap. Sanchez would be safer than Gamel, but I wouldn't think it's worth trading for a 1B unless it would be a slam dunk upgrade over Gamel. Anyone who said the price would "start with Ryan Braun" is way off. An MVP-caliber player for an average-hitting 1B doesn't really seem quite fair. If we needed the salary room, and Florida would pick up Hart's whole salary, then a Hart-for-Sanchez trade might be fair. Hart's a better hitter, but costs more. That would weaken the Brewers, cause Gamel to play out of place in RF and I doubt the Marlins would take the whole salary on, so I wouldn't do that trade unless we needed the money for a serious upgrade elsewhere. Actually, Gamel for Sanchez would probably be a fair trade, as Sanchez is "MLB proven," while Gamel has more team control. As far as the rest of your post, it would be amazing if the Marlins landed Pujols, Reyes and Buehrle. That's a Yankee-esque offseason FA haul, and would certainly help fill the new stadium.

This is exactly how I feel. People sometimes keep talking like our team is still owned by the Seligs. Attanasio wants to win, and badly. He is going to give Melvin the green light to be aggressive if the right signings or trades come up. Also, making a few mediocre moves and not doing anything to remotely replace Prince's production would send a horrible message to the fan base that has been so supportive. I think they know they made mistakes by not doing more after Sabathia and Sheets left in the '08 off-season. They aren't going to make those same mistakes again.But Attanasio is also a finance guy, who realizes that we have Braun, Gallardo and Weeks taking up a lot of the team's payroll over the next few seasons. I posted in the "transactions" forum that it is probably possible to sign Reyes and extend Greinke, but it would be very tight, and we would absolutely need to bring in rookies every year to keep the payroll down. If we sign Reyes and don't extend Greinke or Marcum, we'll lose 3/5 of our starting rotation after next year. We haven't had success bringing in FA SP, and a rotation of Gallardo, Narveson and three rookies from our system doesn't really thrill me. We would then look like our teams of 2009 & 2010, only with Reyes instead of Fielder. If we are willing to start Gamel & Green in 2012, then trade Hart after 2012 and go with one of our rookie OF along with some rookie pitching, then it's probably doable to sign Reyes and extend Greinke, which could help make us decent for a while. There would of course be risks in relying on prospects to produce, but it's really the only way we can exist going forward unless we trade one of our core (Braun, Weeks, Gallardo). We can't just keep signing veteran FAs to block our prospects... we don't have that kind of money. If we don't sign Reyes, and instead go with someone like Barmes on a 1-2 year deal, we could probably extend Greinke, be a playoff contender next year, and have money in 2013 and beyond (which would go to Reyes) to upgrade at other positions as needed. I honestly don't know what the best route would be. I like the concept of having Reyes as a SS/leadoff hitter, but I dislike the thought of having most of our payroll tied up long-term in 4 or 5 players, so we have no payroll flexibility and are very reliant on all of our prospects panning out.

10. Decide to cut Casey McGehee. Won't want to be on the hook for the $3 million salary. I expect he'll trade McGehee for a prospect. We'll read about the "high ceiling young prospect" we got, and in 3-4 years, I'll read through Brewerfan's Power 50 and wonder where #48 came from and someone will remind me that he was the guy we traded McGehee for. All-in-all, good rundown Reilly. Pretty much what I expect, but after last season, I'm preparing for something completely unexpected to happen.

Unless he's 32 :-)

Please tell me that Fielder is a higher ranked FA than Reyes. We lost out on a first rounder with Sabathia because of Teixeira. It would really hurt to end up with a third rounder for Fielder if the Marlins signed him & Reyes (they can't lose a 1st rounder due to their 72-90 season). Note: I also see the Marlins are talking to Buehrle.

Or at 1B if the team doesn't think Gamel's bat is adequate. Who do we have in the minors who will put up numbers better than Gamel on a regular basis? The difference between first and short though is that you can put pretty much anyone at first base and they'd be ok. Basically what I was saying is that Gamel has pretty good minor league hitting stats. If the Brewers block him by signing a veteran 1B, then I don't know what a prospect has to do in the minors to earn a MLB starting job. Not just directed at you, monty, but I'm curious to know from others that want to see Reyes signed -- do you think he's a more valuable long-term piece than Greinke? Because it (to me) seems pretty plain that if you sign Reyes, there's no extension available for Greinke. That, coupled with Reyes's durability & that he'll be on the wrong side of 30 for most of any contract he'd sign, is why I definitely don't want to see the Brewers sign him. That's a very good point, and I was going to put a disclaimer on my post in regards to Greinke. 2014 and 2015 seem to be the bottleneck years, as that's when Braun, Weeks and Gallardo will be expensive. Take 2015: We will have Braun ($19MM), Weeks ($11.5MM), Gallardo ($13MM), totaling $43.5MM for three players. We could still have Axford and Lucroy in their 2nd years of arby and Narveson would be in his final year of arby. If we play Green & Gamel this season, Green would be in year 2 arby and Gamel would be in year 3 (I believe). Using a whole bunch of guesswork, and probably being way off on the arby guesses, I'd put those eight players around $48.5MM. If Greinke and Reyes were both around $18MM, that would put those ten players at $84.5MM. If we have a roughly $10MM boost from the TV deal, and get a little inflation, we're looking at around a $100MM payroll, which would leave around $15MM for the remaining fifteen players on the roster (RF, CF, two SP, bullpen and bench, most of which could be filled through our system) So, without much real knowledge of the Brewers' financial situation, and using a lot of guesswork, it would be possible, but difficult to both sign Reyes and extend Greinke. If we are able to continue to bring players up from the farm, it would make it more doable. Plus, the above example assumes Greinke's extension would include 2015. It is possible that Melvin and Greinke work out a two-year extension, which would encompass 2012 and add 2013 and 2014. And, of course, it is possible someone could be traded. Regardless, this is why I'm worried when I hear talk about signing a 1B or 3B instead of starting Gamel & Green next year. If we do not put a little trust in our minor leaguers and allow them to take on starting roles, we are going to be in a lot of trouble in 2014 and 2015. This is also why, while I'd like to see Reyes as a Brewer, I hope Melvin does a lot of due diligence before even considering a 6-year deal. We don't want to get ourselves into a situation where we always have multiple big contracts which keep us from "filling in holes." Really the big reason I'd consider it for Reyes is that we don't have any SS on the horizon, and we should have cheap options at most of the other positions coming through the ranks.

You don't get an error when you make a bad throw unless you throw it into the stands, which is REALLY hard to do for a LF. I would imagine you would get an error any time the throw allows a runner to advance. It would seem that a LF should have more throwing errors than a RF, because a bad throw to 2B would allow the runner to go to third, while on a misthrow from RF to 2B the ball would end up being near 3B, making it tougher for the runner to advance. But your point it taken. An OF can make a pretty bad throw, and as long as no one moves up, there is no error, while a bad throw from an IF often ends up being an error.

Different managers have different strengths and weaknesses. For all his faults, Roenicke seems good at maintaining a good clubhouse atmosphere and the players like him without running over him. That appears to be Francona's weakness. It's easy to have the players "like" you if you just let them do whatever you want, but it's easy to lose the team unless you have some very good team leaders who control it for you. I can't imagine guys like Schilling would have allowed the pitchers to do what this year's staff was up to. Without vocal team leaders, Francona's weaknesses may come to the forefront.

Agree with you there, TLB. The reason I like the concept of Reyes (if it is financially possible) is that (A) we don't have any SS that will be MLB-ready in the foreseeable future (B) he plays good defense © he can bat leadoff and with Morgan will put a lor of runners on base in front of Weeks, Braun, Hart. "C" would also allow for Gamel and Green to bat along with Lucroy in the 6-7-8 spots. If they can indeed put up .800+ OPS numbers, we would have a very good offense. If they don't hit as well as I hope, the damage would be mitigated with them down in the order. They couldn't hit worse then the Yuni/McGehee combo, could they? Also, Reyes is a FA, so Melvin wouldn't have to trade away the future like he did in acquiring Marcum & Greinke. The draft pick lost would be made up for in the picks we should get for Prince and K-Rod. We wouldn't have enough money to sign three #1's and 3 Supplementals anyway. The reason I don't like signing someone like Pena is that (A) it would take up much of the money we should use to sign a SS and bullpen (B) it would essentially mean we've given up on Gamel without ever giving him a real shot in the majors © it would be yet another sign that we're going to build our team through free agency rather than through the farm, and I don't think this is a long-term sustainable path for a small/mid market team. I don't think we'll have the money to sign Reyes, but if we do, I think we could score as many runs next season as we did this year, and probably do it in a more consistant/less streaky way. I won't be upset if we end up with someone like Barmes, as it's kind of what I expect. I just hope we'd do a 1-2 year deal and hope one of our young SS on the farm become MLB ready in a couple years.

The reception was horrible at night, if you weren't within a few miles of a network station. Reading Briggs' post, that may have been a positive :-)

There really isn't anyone in the minors at SS that is going to help us anytime soon. Or at 1B if the team doesn't think Gamel's bat is adequate. Who do we have in the minors who will put up numbers better than Gamel on a regular basis? If we do indeed decide to go after free agents like Pena rather than playing Gamel & Green next season, then I have to question the future of the franchise. We cannot field a decent team if we don't have league-minimum / arby players contributing significantly to the roster nearly every season. First off, we can't afford to have an all-veteran lineup unless they all stink, and secondly, who are we going to offer the "Braun-type" extensions to if we don't let good young players come up and contribute, and instead continue to trade them off. At some point, Weeks, Hart, Braun, Yo, etc will all be gone. Will we have new, young All-Stars to take there place? We're not in some desparate state, but we will get there if we sign so-so veteran FAs to block our best MLB-ready prospects. Small-mid market teams need to trade so-so vets to unblock good prospects, not the other way around.

This is exactly why the Brewers continually get older though. Anytime a player is productive there is a large segment of the posting population here that wants to retain that player. The Brewers should always be breaking in a couple of younger players between the position players, starting rotation, and bullpen. However that shouldn't prevent the GM from taking advantage of a sweet deal if one comes along for a guy who shouldn't be in the organization's long-term plans anyway. For example I'd trade a guy like Axford for a young legit starting pitcher tomorrow if I could. We don't always have to buy MLB talent, it's alright to cycle talented MLB players back into talented prospects as well. I believe that starters > position players > bullpen, so I'll make trade up in value on that scale. In Axford's case I understand he's the best pitcher in the bullpen, but he'll ultimately also be the most expensive and least utilized. In Hart's case he'll be 30 next year, he's likely through his peak as a player, now is the perfect time to sell high on a player like that. I only want to have to players signed through their 30/31 year old seasons, which is why I always advocate trying to lockup a core player early and buy out some FA years, then let someone else overpay for the player for what they've done and not what they are going to do. The difference here I guess is that I don't get attached to any players anymore, just the team. My brother asked me during the post season if there were any Brewer players that I rooted for anymore... I honestly didn't have one guy, Axford was probably the closest, I root hard for all of the guys that come up through the system but I don't single any of them out anymore, I wouldn't buy their jersey or memorbelia, not like when I lived and died with every Sexson or Burnitz AB, or every Hardy/Hart AB when they first came up, or how I loved Cooper, Molitor, and Yount through grade school in the 80s. I just don't have that attachment to individual players like I used to so I'm willing to move anyone for better long-term value. I'm not disagreeing with you that if someone came along with a tremendous offer for Hart, we should take it. However, I think we should have a good team again next year, and I wouldn't want to see us trade Hart for a couple of good (but not MLB-ready) prospects if it would have a significant negative effect on our offense (and therefore our playoff chances) next season. We can always trade Hart off after next season when some of our "more traditional" corner OF minor leaguers are ready, and when we've seen if Schafer can make it through a season without suffering a major injury. Or, we could trade him mid-season (along with Marcum, Wolf, Greinke if none are extended) if it looks like we're not going to make the playoffs. I agree that a small/mid market team generally needs to start some rookies every year. I was upset at our refusal to bring up a rookie this season when it appeared pretty obvious that Green would be an upgrade over McGehee. That said, there is a lot of risk in having too many rookies playing major roles on a team. I think we should start Gamel & Green next year, and having Braun, Hart, and Weeks in the center of the lineup makes it possible to put Gamel & Green in the bottom of the order. If we were to trade Hart this offseason for some not-MLB-ready prospects, we would either have to go after a FA RF/1B (of which I don't think you are a proponant, and which by nature would be worse than Hart... otherwise why wouldn't our trading partener simply sign the FA) or start another rookie in Schafer or Gindl. There are reasons to believe that neither of these guys are MLB ready, and it would mean that either Gamel or Green would have to bat in the 3-4-5 spot in the lineup. This, of course assumes that we find a SS who can be a leadoff hitter. If not, then Weeks may have to go back to leadoff, and Gamel and Green would have to be the 3 & 5 hitters around Braun. I don't think that's a great option if we're trying to win a playoff spot. Finally, you mention that you believe that starters > position players > bullpen. Next year, we will already have all five of our starting pitchers returning, along with some decent SP prospects in AAA. If we were to trade Hart for a SP, then would we trade a SP for a RF? Or would we trade a SP for minor league SP and go with no MLB-caliber RF? Making all kinds of trades this offseason could lead to a good, younger team, or it could tear up a good team and leave you with a mess. The bottom line is that I'm all for trading Hart, but I don't think this offseason is when it will be done. As I mentioned, if we are somehow able to re-sign Fielder, then I think we should stick Gamel in RF and trade Hart, hopefully for a good, young SS. If we also had to trade Wolf for money reasons, then I would hope we'd get the good young SS and some minor league SP. This scenario just depends of if Attanasio is serious when he says he thinks we have a shot at signing Fielder (which is not something I think we should do).