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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    I'm definitely not a LaRussa fan, but it would be kind of cool to see a retired Hall of Fame manager come out of retirement for the All Star Game. Of course, LaRussa would somehow find a way to have his pitcher throw at guys on his own team if they're Brewers, Reds or Cubs.
  2. monty57
    I don't think that the Brewers should be trading guys like that when they are productive. Unless they somehow end up signing Fielder, I think they need to have Hart in the lineup, especially if they go with Green & Gamel starting. After next year, when Hart has one year left on his contract, Gamel & Green will have a year under their belt, and we will have a number of minor league OFs knocking on the door, they will probably at least entertain the thought of trading him.
  3. monty57
    McGehee isn't getting $3.1m. He won't go to arby either. He'll either sign a deal with the Brewers for about $1-1.5m or get non-tendered and hope for a Kotsay type deal from somewhere but there is a large risk in that. Good point. Melvin has the benefit of being able to speak with the player and his agent prior to any arby discussions, and both sides know how Casey played this season, even if his three year averages are still okay. His biggest leverage is arby and that the Brewers could get stuck with a non-team-friendly deal if the arby judge really values Casey's 2009-2010 numbers. He loses that if the Brewers non-tender him and he becomes a FA. Then it comes down to whether he thinks he'd get a better deal on the open market than what the Brewers are offering. I think you're probably right that he either ends up on the Brewers for around $1-1.5MM or he ends up elsewhere. At around $1MM, he's a good option as backup 1B/3B, RH bat off the bench.
  4. monty57
    He may have a strong arm but, to quote Crash Davis, "I just don't know where its going." Hart, on the other hand, has a strong and very accurate arm. Really? I don't pay real close attention to this, but I've seen plenty of Hart's balls bouncing there way into home, while Braun seems to have a pretty good arm. I'd put Gomez in the strong arm but don't know where it's going camp, as a lot of his throws home come closer to thrid base.
  5. monty57
    The Cubs are still in the "hangover" years after signing big contracts to aging vets while trying to win the World Series a few years back. They'll be down for a while, but absolutely have the resources to begin turning around fairly quickly. I can't imagine the Cubs fan base will stand by waiting for the team to build through the draft like Brewers fans had to do while waiting for Fielder, Weeks, etc. We'll probably see Epstein make some big signings to improve the team on the field this year. I really think they'll make a big play for Fielder or Pujols to give the fans something to cheer about while the teams rebuilds. A lineup containing Pujols/Fielder, Ramirez, Castro, Byrd and Soriano should score some runs. If Zambrano could somehow get back to his 23-year-old form, and Epstein finds a way to bring in another pitcher to complement Dempster and Garza, they could even have a decent rotation. I don't expect the Cubs to be a good team next year, but it's not like we're talking about rebuilding by trading away the MLB roster and waiting 5 or 6 years for prospects to develop, like we had to do. Someone like Sveum may actually be a good manager for them. He's a player-friendly coach, and if anyone could get Zambrano to stop punching other players on the team, he may be the guy.
  6. monty57
    The major difference between RF & LF is that the RF has to make throws to 3B, so he should have a strong arm, while the LF rarely has to throw to 1B. The throw to home is the same distance from either position. Pretty much all else is the same (the ball tails the opposite direction, but that just takes playing a little bit to get used to it). In little league and "beer league" softball, most players are RH and pull the ball, so bad fielders are stashed in RF. In the majors, I don't think that's much of an issue, and the RF gets plenty of opportunities. I'm one of those (seemingly) few on this site who thinks Braun has grown into a decent corner OF. He would be fine in RF, but there's no reason to move him simply to move him, as it would require some adjustment. If something should happen that we trade Hart and pick up a corner OF with no arm, then moving Braun to RF should be considered.
  7. monty57
    Attanasio seems to think they have a shot at signing Fielder, so it's not out of the question. If the Brewers re-signed Fielder, they wouldn't have as big of a need for Hart's bat in the lineup, and could put one of Gamel/Gindl/Schafer in RF to save around $20MM over two seasons. With Fielder and Braun each on the books for around $20MM/year, I don't think it would bode well for extending Greinke, so he could potentially be on the trading block as well. Signing Fielder would certainly make for an eventful offseason. I couldn't see them signing Fielder to a long-term contract and then losing their entire starting rotation after the first year, so we would probably see some moves. Maybe trading Greinke and Hart could net us a good, young SS and some MLB-ready SP. To the MLBtraderumors list in the original post, I would certainly like to see us land Reyes. If Attanasio feels we have the money to sign Fielder, then maybe Reyes could be the "fall back plan" if Fielder goes elsewhere :-) It'd be nice to see how good our pitching would be with some defense behind them.
  8. monty57
    True, if Reyes is indeed going to get a 6-year deal. Those deals aren't thrown around too freely, so I wouldn't count on him getting one, especially with his injury history. It could be more like Barmes/Pena at a combined 2 years / $30MM vs Reyes at 4 years / $72MM (if the author was correct in assuming $18MM/year). I don't really think either will happen, but I would think Reyes/Gamel would make us much better than Barmes/Pena. In my opinion, a big benefit of getting someone like Reyes, Rollins or Furcal would be that we could put them in the leadoff spot, allowing Weeks, Hart and Braun to man the 3-4-5 spots. Not many SS are good enough hitters to bat leadoff, so getting someone like Barmes (who would be a big upgrade over Yuni) means we have another bottom-of-the-order guy, forcing Weeks or Hart back to leadoff. If it is possible to spend that kind of money, Reyes/Morgan/Braun/Hart/Weeks/Green/Lucroy/Gamel should be a pretty good, balanced offense. A Reyes deal would probably mean no Greinke extension, so that is probably enough reason not to do it. Furcal is an intriguing option if he could be lured out of St Louis on a two-year deal.
  9. monty57
    Marcum, Morgan and Gomez are pretty much no-brainers. If it's an either/or situation, I'd rather use the $4MM to re-sign Hawkins/Saito/other good pitcher than to pay Loe & Parra. I suppose there's the possibilty we non-tender Loe & Parra and try to sign them to lower value deals. Kottaras will probably be back, but Roenicke always took him out as soon as Wolf came out of the game, so he must not think too much of him. It's possible we dump George and go with Maldonado, who I believe is supposed to be a good defender. As you mentioned, Melvin will almost certainly make some phone calls to see if there's any interest in McGehee. I don't hate the idea of bringing him back as a backup 1B/3B, but I would rather not pay him $3.1MM to do it.
  10. monty57
    If you've got that much to spend on mediocrity, you might as well add $2-3 million and go after a difference maker like Reyes. Well said. I don't think we have $15-18MM/year to play with, but if we do, I'd rather go with Reyes/Gamel than Barmes/Pena. We probably only have around $10MM to spend, and if that goes to Pena, I'll be pretty bummed out, when we'd likely get similar production from Gamel for league minimum. But it seems like you could always get a guy like Barmes without giving much up. That player wasn't available this season, which is why we were treated to the everyday play of Yuni, and why Melvin just re-signed Maysonet to a minor league deal. Bench players like Counsell get $2MM/year, so I don't think $5MM/year for Barmes is much of a stretch, and I'm sure Melvin is at least kicking the tires on the idea of making an offer to Barmes. If I had to guess, I'd say we'll sign someone like Barmes to something around a $5MM/year deal, and spend the rest of our free cash on relievers like Saito and Hawkins. That sounds kind of boring, and Melvin will probably do something with more bells and whistles attached, so I fully expect to be pleasantly surprised before next season begins.
  11. monty57
    Someone in another thread mentioned offering Fielder a contract with an opt-out clause. This is why teams should never offer opt-out clauses. Had CC gotten hurt, or under-performed, the Yankees would have been stuck with the original contract. Since he has performed well, they now have to up the ante. The original contract was far more than any other team would have offered, and now he's getting even more.
  12. monty57
    Attanasio took over a pretty bad team. The ownership group took a big risk that they would lose millions on an annual basis when they took over. They have done a good job of increasing revenue and putting a good team on the field which fans enjoy watching, turning that into a big increase in fan attendance and a new TV deal, but to imply that the "average fan" risks anywhere near what Attanasion risked is not true. I'm happy that Attanasio has put much of the increased revenue back into the team, and I'm glad he's not dumb enough to bankrupt himself to add another contract.
  13. monty57
    Saito's doesn't matter unfortunately because it's in his contract that he can't be offered arby. All the more reason to re-sign Saito. I'd love to have him back on the same contract we got him for this year. I'd be scared offering arby to Yuni. He probably won't get a $4.8MM+ deal from someone else, so we'd probably get stuck with him again.
  14. monty57
    This is what often happens when you have a successful big league team or a great player already at a position. Yeah, this stinks for the player, but can be good for the team. If Gamel turns out to be a good major leaguer, we will have him for his age 27-32 seasons, or basically his "prime," for league minimum and arby. He won't be a free agent until his best years are behind him.
  15. monty57
    DLC didn't look like much more than just a dude to me in his MLB time this season. I don't expect him to be "closer material," but he did pitch well in AAA, has decent "stuff," and can go multiple innings, so I think he could be a decent option for middle relief, especially if he has any options remaining.
  16. monty57
    I don't. Yuni has plenty of arm for SS, it's his lack of range that's the problem. He would have that same problem at 2B, and his arm wouldn't be as much of an asset. I'd say he'd be a worse 2B than he is a SS. He'd make a good defensive 3B, but he would be a really, really bad hitter for a 3B.
  17. monty57
    Agreed Al. I like de la Cruz as an option in the pen because of all you mentioned. Having an inexpensive live arm who can go more than one inning is a plus. Good point on the options. Not too long ago, we got stuck with a bullpen full of guys with no options (and Suppan in the rotation). It's nice to be able to send someone down when the bullpen needs a fresh arm. It is definitely good news to hear that these guys are probably going to be healthy for next season... I just hope Parra isn't too expensive.
  18. monty57
    I also see no reason why the Brewers can't sign more than 1 guy or spend more than $12 M this offseason, yet everyone here is under the assumption this is all we have. Playoff revenue and TV revenue should manifest themselves in a $90 M payroll this season. I agree the payroll should go up, and I hope the rumors of an extra $20MM or so from the new TV deal in 2013 are accurate. That said, there was a link on another site to (IIRC) an MLBTradeRumors article where the author believed that with our current obligations we have around $9MM to spend if we have an $85MM payroll. I thought the author was a little too generous with some of his arby salaries, but even with a $90MM payroll, we probably have somewhere around $15MM or so in "extra money" to fill out our roster unless we trade away one of our bigger contracts. That would be if we decide to start Gamel & Green at league minimum. If we use some of that money to pay a veteran 1B, then we just have less to pay a SS and to fill out the bullpen. It is one path Melvin could take, but personally I'd make sure I had a good plan for SS and the 'pen before I found someone other than Gamel to play 1B. That said, now we have Attanasio saying he wants to sign Fielder, so there has to be some money somewhere. If we actually do sign Fielder, then the question for Gamel comes down to "do we trade Hart, and if so, do we go for offense with Gamel, defense with Schafer, or a little of both with Gindl?"
  19. monty57
    Fielder is gone. The quicker most of you realize it, the better. When Fielder talks of Milwaukee, he uses a past tense. Reason enough. I resigned myself to that long ago, and I think Gamel will be our 1B in 2012 and beyond. However, Attanasio is now saying that he wants to sign Fielder. Attanasio has not been one to tell the fans something unless he means it. That doesn't mean we will sign Fielder, as we could have a team make a ridiculous offer like the Yankees did to Sabathia, but Attanasio is extremely intelligent when it comes to finances. Contrasting that against our very limited knowledge of the Brewers finances, and I'll at least have to consider the option that the Brewers have a chance of re-signing him. I would assume that if we really could sign Fielder, we would have to trade away one of our bigger contracts. If that's the case, our best options would probably be trading Hart and allowing Gamel/Gindl/Schafer to play RF, and/or trading one of Wolf/Marcum/Greinke and giving Peralta/Fiers a shot at the rotation. I would hope that in one of those trades, we would be able to fill SS.
  20. monty57
    Kintzler looked good coming into this season, so I hope he can make it back & contribute. The Brewers will need guys like him to keep the bullpen affordable. Hopefully getting Parra, Stetter, & Kintzler back means the Brewers will get at least one more solid contributor in the '12 bullpen. If those three are fully healthy by next ST, which Ash seems to think possible, then we may not need to spend as much extra on the bullpen as I thought. Axford is a given, and we have Loe, Estrada and de la Cruz back. With Parra, Stetter and Kintzler, and the possibilty of Braddock, we could realistically re-sign one vet (Saito, Hawkins or someone else) as the setup guy, and have a lot of options at middle / long reliever. The pen should be pretty well set... at least until we add another K-Rod at the deadline :-)
  21. monty57
    Melvin always signs some aging vet bat (Kotsay, Kapler, etc). I don't expect to find someone who will put together a season like Berkman, but I expect an aging vet as a backup OF/1B on the bench. Edit: Of course, Casey McGehee could really fill the "former impact player w/ declining value" role on the 2012 team.
  22. monty57
    Gamel being in the minors until his age 27 season at best is clearly an indication of his talent level. Is that what they said about Ryan Howard when he was stuck behind Thome? I don't envision Gamel as a superstar, but he has hit well at every level of the minors, and apparently is a decent fielding 1B. He was not a good defensive 3B, and Casey coming along stuck him in AAA, when the other positions he could potentially play were filled with All Stars (Fielder, Braun, Hart). The Brewers have known Fielder was going to be gone at some point (most thought after last off-season), so keeping Gamel made more sense than trading him. The Brewers did think enough of Gamel that they made him untouchable in the Sabathia trade. I would rather use the limited monetary resources the team will have this offseason to fill the positions where we don't have someone ready to step in, which are SS and the bullpen. Why spend millions on someone like Ethier if it means Kam Loe is our setup guy or Maysonet is our SS while Gamel rots away in AAA?
  23. monty57
    It will be interesting to see what happens with Parra. He was paid $1.2MM this year, so if they have to offer him at least 80% in arby, he's due at least $960,000, although it's pretty uncommon for a player to get a paycut in arby, so I'd think he'd get at least $1.3MM or so. If he is indeed doing "excellent," and is at 100%, then maybe he's worth it, but that's a decent amount of money to risk on a middle reliever who's never been that good in his career and who is coming off a serious injury. Good to hear Kintzler will pitch in the AFL. I expect him to play a big role in the 2012 'pen.
  24. monty57
    It's funny that people actually believe the Brewers have the money to sign either Prince or Reyes this offseason. The money is not there. Attanasio has never been one to lie to the fan base, and he said they're going to make a push for Fielder. One question is whether this is another Sabathia type situation where they would increase the payroll for Fielder, but not for anyone else. Another question is whether signing Fielder would mean that they have to trade one or more other high price players (Hart and/or a SP). I would think that if they were to sign Fielder, Hart would be traded for a SS and Gamel would be tried out in RF. Personally, I expect them to be outbid for Fielder, but that's just a guess. Then we would see whether or not they would be willing to increase the payroll for Reyes. I'd guess not, and would expect them to make a push for someone they could get for less money, like Barmes or maybe Furcal, as they would probably need to keep Hart's bat in the lineup if they lose Fielder.
  25. monty57
    Hit better than Mat Gamel did. Taylor Green's MLE line is a much better .292/.358/.483. In 2011, there were 3 Intl League and 15 PCL players with a .900+ OPS. In 2010 there were 3 Intl League and 10 PCL players with a .900+ OPS. If you need to hit better than Gamel in order to be an above average hitter in the majors, very few players currently in the minors will be above average MLB hitters. I've heard a lot of people state that MLE isn't accurate on an individual level. However, if the MLE is an accurate predictor, we would be looking at offense from 2012 Gamel somewhere around what Derrek Lee or Gaby Sanchez provided in 2011.
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