monty57

I can see it now. Fielder in a Cubs uniform. Great. The Brewers still have a year of control over Fielder, and they will not trade Prince to the Cubs. The Cubs will need a 1B for 2011, so they will probably sign a FA, which would likely take them out of the hunt for Prince in FA for 2012. Not sure how good those pitchers are, hopefully not good at all I wonder how this deal stacks up to the ones Lee voided prior to the deadline. In other words, did Lee screw over the Cubs and cause them to get less return in trade. I've always heard he's a great guy, and that would make me really like him :-) There's no way the Braves can afford Lee in 2011 & I'm sure they will NOT offer arbitration..... Agreed that the Braves probably won't offer arby. Even if they could afford it, he probably isn't worth what he'd get if he accepted arby. Assuming Fielder is traded this offseason, Lee is someone I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers take a shot at if they can't land Dunn or Konerko. After a down season, he may be able to be signed fairly cheaply this offseason.

I know this is going off topic, but since I don't care to discuss a punk who's come into millions of dollars but still feels compelled to beat up his girlfriends 50-something father, I'll continue the off-topic run. The Mets/Yankees scenario does show the difference between business run well and one run poorly. As much as I dislike the Yankees, much of my dislike ironically stems from how well they were run, which gave them a significant financial edge over all other teams in baseball. Most of the advantage isn't from attendence, as they probably don't make much more than the Brewers from ticket sales and parking. The big advantage is in TV deals and branding. Steinbrenner used the system to his (and the Yankees) best advantage. The Mets have fallen into the trap of trying to "keep up with the Joneses," by spending with the Yankees when they don't have equal revenue. This can turn ugly really quickly, as I think the Cubs may be figuring out with all of their horrendous contracts they're stuck with after trying to buy themselves into the World Series. Another example would be the Diamondbacks having to basically give away Dan Haren, who was signed to what seemed to be a pretty team-friendly deal, because they were in questionable financial shape. Relating this to the Brewers, I do think that Mark A has done a good job in trying to maximize revenues, which hopefully will allow for the Brewers to maintain mid-market status. Expenses (contracts) should go down significantly after this year, so we should be able to maintain a financially sound team even if revenues dip due to less ticket sales. We have a benefit of having great sports fans in Wisconsin, so as long as we continue to put effort into building a good team, fans will continue to show up, and with a financially sound team, I believe we'll still be able to field competitive teams. If we stick with this business plan, which I have to believe we will as long as Mark A is the owner, we shouldn't fall back into the "Selig Era Brewers."

In addition to the "clubhouse cancer" that he could be, the Mets were also struggling a bit financially prior to the season. I remember a story where after the Bay signing, they were having trouble coming up with money to fill the other positions on the team. It could've just been NY media hyping a "woe is me" story, but they could probably use the money to fill more important roster spots.

I understand and agree that the bullpen isn't the best place to spend money. It's really pretty sad that we haven't been able to develop many pitchers (including bullpen arms) over the recent past, so it's nice to finally see some talented young arms come up. Hopefully this will allow us to focus our attention and resources elsewhere in the future and we won't have to spend more on our bullpen and bench than we do on much more important positions. I'm still not upset about the Hawkins signing, as I can understand where Melvin was coming from when he made the deal... I'd have been scared to go into the season depending on Axford, Smith, Loe, etc. However, I really hope we don't see any free agent relievers signed for a long time, as we should be able to "grow our own."

With all of this information available, how could you not evaluate Hawkin's signing based on a value over contract? If you are dealing with a normalized/efficient free agent market, then any time you sign a free agent, you should expect to get contract value in return, not excess value. I'd guess that if our offseason free agent signings had simply played up to the level of their contracts (providing no excess value over what they're being paid), we would be in contention for the Central Division title. However, Wolf, Davis, Hawkins and Hoffman have all played well below their contracts and Zaun was probably playing to his contract until his season-ending injury. Hawkins lost six or seven MPH off of his fastball, so it appears his "regression" has been mainly due to injury and/or fatigue. Had that not happened, he might actually be the one bright spot among our offseason moves. Small/mid market teams like the Brewers do need to continue to look for players with "value over contract," but when you are making decisions, you have to weigh the opportunity costs. Melvin had several options in developing the bullpen coming into 2010. With hindsight, it's easy to say that our best option would have been to pass on Hoffman and Hawkins, and instead simply bring Axford, Braddock, Loe, Smith, etc (guys with potiential to provide a lot of excess value over contract) up to start the season. However, going into this season, we had our sights set on how to make the playoffs. With that in mind, Melvin chose to go with what would appear to be the safer route, as both Hoffman and Hawkins have long, successful track records, while the guys in the minors were far from proven (other than the injury-riddled Braddock, they were mainly a bunch of castoffs... Loe was in Japan, Axford was in Independent League, etc.). Melvin took the information at hand, looked at all of the available opportunities and chose a decent path. The problem is that the free agent players went from being good to being horrible while the guys in the minors performed well above even the rosiest of expectations. As far as the FA signings, even considering the players' ages, their aggregate magnitude of failure has to be off the charts. I'm fine with a few players on the roster getting no excess value, as when you sign a FA, you don't expect excess value, but it's getting tiring seeing so many players play so far below expectation as soon as they sign with the Brewers.

Best case scenario was that Hawkins was worth his $3 mil this year and $4 mil next year. Most likely case was that he came in below value, but still near it. Worst case is that he gets injured and doesn't pitch both years. Considering he is an older reliever, thats a lot of risk for very little upside. But that's only if you are considering it on a "value over contract" basis. If you forget the contract, the best case was that he would be an above average setup man in 2010 and a good closer in 2011. The probable case would be that he pitched somewhere south of his last few years, which were pretty good. Worst case (as it is with any player) is an injury which doesn't allow the player to perform. If you simply look at "value over contract," than a team filled with the best players in baseball all signed to market value contracts would have "very little upside." If you look at actual value, and forget the contracts, you have an All Star team. GM's (other than maybe Cashman) can't simply "forget the contracts," but they also can't base everything on "value over contract." Most of your guys who provide value over their contract are guys who you bring up through the minors, trade for while they're young, or pick them up off a scrap heap and hope for "lightning in a bottle." With everyone else, you really hope to get equal value to the contract. Unfortunately, we have received far less value than the contract from most of our high money free agent signings, but that doesn't mean signing free agents can't work. Otherwise, no one would pay the high prices, and market value would drop to the level of production. Melvin went into the season with a number of players which were likely to provide a lot of value over their contracts, a few (Suppan, Riske, Hall) who were very likely (or certain) to provide far less value than their contracts, and he tried to fill in some holes at SP (Wolf, Davis), RP (Hoffman, Hawkins) and C (Zaun) that he hoped would perform to their contracts. The fact that we ended up 0-for-5 on the last group goes a long way towards our disappointing season. The easy answer is to say that we just need to build our entire team from the minors, so that everyone's contributing excess value vs their contract, but that's not very realistic. Every team needs to use free agency to some extent... it would just be nice to see more of our FA signings pan out. To topic, it looks like Hawkins will fail to live up to his contract. I hope he will be able to rest up over the winter and become a solid, veteran bullpen arm in 2011 to go along with a lot of young talent from the minors. Overall, his deal won't have too much negative value, but it will probably go down as a bad signing, mainly due to an injury for which you can't really blame Melvin.

Listening to WTMJ's "Brewers 360" this morning, they brought up that Gerut would be coming off his rehab assignment soon, and that Gomez would be off the DL soon. Davey Nelson was the guest. He said that he figured Gerut was the odd man out, which I'd have to agree with. If he can't stay in the minors on rehab assignment until September call-ups, I'd have to think he'll be let go. Nelson also talked about how Gomez has been pretty much forgotten since Cain has been around. They discussed how Cain has brought excitement to the clubhouse, and how it's a shame that Gomez is wasting his talent by not changing his approach at the plate. If it were up to me, I'd probably keep Gomez around for the rest of the year as a backup OF, as they need a bat and so we don't burn an option. Then, if it's possible, stick him in AAA to start next season to see if they can possibly get him to change his approach and tap into his vast potential.

Riske made a comment a while back that when he came to the Brewers they insisted that he start throwing a curveball, which he blames for screwing up his arm. If you don't have a farm that can produce MLB caliber arms, you need to get them somewhere, so yes, it is very nice to see some relievers coming from our system. It's nice that we shouldn't have to pay middle relievers to multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts. If we can keep our bullpen and bench homegrown and cheap, it will allow us to use our money on more important positions in the future.

I liked Gerut as a platoon mate for Hart going into this season, but once Edmonds was signed, I knew he didn't have a prayer of finding any PT. That said, he has no incentive to faking an injury (unlike Maro Estrada), as he is signed to a MLB contract, so he'll get paid either way, and he is playing for a free agent contract next year, which will be much smaller after nearly a full season on the DL. That said, Gerut is gone next year, so even if he comes back healthy in the next month or so, we should keep him around for his minor league rehab assignment and bring him up in September as a warm body we're already paying for. At this point, I'd much rather see Dickerson get playing time over Gerut.

My guess: Villanueva 2010 = JJ Hardy 2009 I believe if Villy is down the rest of the year, we get another year's service time.

As long is Dickerson isn't kept around to block a guy like Gamel, or cause the team to DFA Gomez, who still has potential, I have absolutely no problem with this. Gomez doesn't excite me at all off the bench. His best asset is defense, which he wouldn't use as a pinch hitter. Pinch hitters either need to be able to get on base or hit home runs, and Gomez is poor in both of these areas. I'd hope that whichever of Cain / Gomez is not starting for the MLB team in 2011 will begin the season playing every day in Nashville. TLB, I agree that an attitude adjustment would probably be good for Gomez. Other than making him do push ups any time he swings for the fences, I think AAA would probably be a good way to see if it is possible to get him to change his approach at the plate. If he can't/won't change his approach, than I don't think I want him taking up a roster spot on the team, as his potential will only become results if he decides to play to his strengths. Gamel's future with the Brewers is just a question mark to me at this point, but I don't think Dickerson will block him. If Gamel is going to be used as a 4th OF for the 2011 Brewers, I'd rather they trade him. I'd think the more likely situation would be that Gamel would either start at RF/1B, with Hart playing the other position. The question will be whether the Brewers would rather use some of their pile of excess cash to sign someone like Dunn or Konerko, which would basically leave no position for Gamel, as I don't see them replacing McGehee with Gamel. Basically, a backup OF / bench player should not block any good player or prospect. In my opinion, getting rid of Macha before next season would change the "should not block" to "will not block."

I agree that Hawkins should be shut down and hopefully he'll have his mid-90's fastball back next year. Congrats to McClendon, but does anyone else think that with two banged up OF's, we should bring a position player up instead of another pitcher? Has any team ever had a 13-man pitching staff nearly the entire season?

I think the real reason he isn't effective and why he gets gassed by the 6th inning is the Rluz has his car, and Manny has to ride his bike to the games. That takes a lot out of him. Russ, please give Manny his car back so that he can throw another perfect game.

Okay, yeah, I watched it at MLB and Phillips definitely meant it. Looks to me like Carpenter is the one who really got things going when he said something to Baker. Kind of funny seeing Rolen take three Cardinals to the wall.

Was he trying to tap his shin guards before Molina kicked his bat? His bat was by the shin guard, and he may have been trying to tap it, then Molina kicked the bat when Phillips wasn't looking at him. Then Phillips looked up and tapped the guard quick and walked away to take some swings, at which point Molina stood up to get in Phillips' face. Phillips may have been playing it up to make it look like Molina was starting things, but it kind of looked like Molina kicked the bat, Phillips thought it was a mistake, so he tapped the shin guard. Either way, the "classiest team in baseball," seems to be the team all the other players hate... how is that possible.

I'd have to think that anyone expecting any more of this for a month+ of an injured Jim Edmonds was expecting too much. I don't think Dickerson is a world-beater, but he is much more than I would've expected for Edmonds. It's not a bad thing to have control over a decent player through his prime. This allows us to not have to pay a couple million for a 4th OF for the next few years, and if/when someone like Gindl, Schafer, Davis, etc comes in and makes Dickerson unnecessary, we'll be able to trade him at that time. If he does completely stink up the joint (which is possible, but doesn't seem likely), we just cut him and we haven't lost anything, as Edmonds would've been gone anyways. We don't have anyone else to fill the role, so he's not blocking anyone, and if you throw in that Melvin even asked Edmonds to make sure that the veteran would be okay with the trade (for those that may think trading a vet could hurt our chances of signing a FA in the future), I really don't see anything to complain about with this trade.

That said, beyond the play on the field, the clubhouse was clearly a disaster as well. Couldn't see that coming when they traded for Milton Bradley. He brings the term "Clubhouse Cancer" to an all new level.

I understand that teams have "up" years and "down" years. The biggest thing is to take advantage of opportunities whatever the situation. Trading Edmonds for someone who can help them for the next five years is an example of taking advantage of a down year just like signing CC was an example of taking advantage of an up year. I wish that they had made some more moves prior to the trade deadline (and in 2009), but at least the Edmonds trade showed something. Hopefully we can get similar deals with other players. Some other positives that came out this year unfortunately came due to injuries or underperformance from others. The young bullpen arms have given me more hope for the future. If we don't spend $15-20MM on the bullpen, we should be able to better spend the money elsewhere. Lucroy getting his chance when Zaun got hurt has shown that he is fully capable of being a full-time MLB catcher, while Kottaras has proven to be a valuable backup. Gomez's injury has given Cain a chance to play everyday, and the injuries to Braun and Hart will probably give Dickerson some starts this week to (hopefully) show Brewers fans that we got a productive player. Finally, Narveson and Parra were given a chance to start everyday after Davis and Suppan were out of the rotation. At the very least, the front office has a lot more data on them when trying to fill out the 2011 rotation. Another positive in the "learn from your mistakes" camp was "The Plan" regarding pitching. I think Melvin's comment that they were looking for big, strong pitchers with plus fastballs and offspeed pitches is an acknowledgement that they will no longer be targeting pitchers like Suppan, Wolf and Davis in free agency. I think in the future, if someone doesn't fit the bill, Melvin will look elsewhere to fill the rotation spot. So, while the season as a whole has to be classified as disappointing, at least some positives came out of it.

Without knowing how bad the injuries are, I'd guess that with Braun having a sore wrist and Hart a sore back, there will be plenty of extra starts available for any healthy OF on the roster. On a side note, will Melvin / Macha ever veer from the 13-man pitching staff? If last night didn't show us that we could use an extra bench player, what will?

He very well may have already cleared waivers before the trade took place. A lot of teams put players on waivers in August so trades go through easier. That's what I thought, too. I'm no expert on this, but I think that most teams put a lot of players on waivers as soon as the trade deadline is over. If someone is claimed, they simply pull them back and can't trade the player. Anyone who gets through is free to trade. Anyone that puts a claim in has to be willing to take the player (and his contract), which is why no one ever blocked Manny Ramirez when Boston put him on waivers... they weren't willing to pick up his mammoth contract. For example, there's a good chance that the Brewers put Prince on waivers after the deadline. Since he isn't owed that much money, someone could have put a claim in, and the Brewers (who aren't going to give him up for nothing) pulled him off waivers. Or, he could've cleared waivers, opening him up to be traded before the end of the season. No one will really know unless he is traded.

I just don't see the terrible defense, especially lately. He doesn't have good range, but he's been picking everything hit his way recently. He comes in well on the ball, and has a good, accurate arm. If Escobar (who has good range) can continue to improve his defense, I would much rather have a 3B with a good arm and good glove than one with more range, but an inaccurate arm and questionable glove. In other words, if your SS has good range, why does the 3B need good range? As long as he doesn't boot the ball or throw it away he'll be fine. I won't be upset if the Brewers decide to trade McGehee to let Gamel take over at 3B, but in my opinion it would be a big mistake to sit McGehee in September to let Gamel play everyday. It really wouldn't solve anything, and would diminish Casey's trade value if that's the route the Brewers wanted to go.

That's a definite possibility, but I'd rather have a good bat, backup corner OF rather than a third good glove / questionable bat CF's. Gomez really doesn't offer much from the bench, as by far his greatest asset is his defense. Off the bench, his lack of power and plate discipline don't play well. AAA would be the best place for Gomez, but I think we'll have to pay him around $1.5MM, so I don't know if the Brewers will be willing to pay that to him while he's playing in Nashville.

Good move. Edmonds had very little value to the Brewers. At most, he may have helped us get one more win this year over Cain/Gomez/Dickerson, and we were getting nothing beyond this year for him. Now we've got an inexpensive good glove / good OBP OF for the next four or five years. Even if he's only a backup OF, we basically gave up nothing and will receive value for a long time. It will be interesting to see what they are going to do with Cain, Dickerson and Gomez next year. I'd probably rather see slugging RH corner OF Katin on the team than have Gomez as the 3rd string CF. I can't imagine Gomez has much trade value these days, so can we send him to AAA for 2011?

They definitely need to add some position players, so Cain and Gamel seem very likely. They'd have to add Katin to the 40-man, and even though I'd like to see Katin up in Sept, I don't see them cutting anyone to add him. It wouldn't hurt to bring up a middle infielder to see if they can handle the majors, but I don't see them getting any PT, with a set infield and Counsell and Inglett ahead of them on the depth chart. Villenueva seems like a slam dunk. Jeffress could probably use some more innings, and a call-up would also help justify adding him to the 40-man a year early. I really don't think they need a lot more pitching on the MLB staff, and I agree with Invader that more than 4-5 callups doesn't seem likely with them out of contention. In addition to using service time in September, there is a chance of injury, which (as we found out with Gamel this spring) if it occurs while they're on the MLB roster, will use service time until they're healthy. I'd hate to see any of our young players get a serious injury, but I'd really hate to see them get a serious injury which costs us a year+ service time.

I think Prince will either bring back a decent starter who is already into his arby years, or a couple of higher upside guys in the lower minors. I think Melvin will go for the decent starter with 2-3 years left of team control. It's not what I'd do, but I think it's what Melvin will do. As far as free agents, Melvin would likely go with "the plan," which would mean a pitcher who's 6'2" or taller with a plus fastball and breaking pitch... that would mean Javier Vazquez or no one. If teams are down on him because of his "down year" with the Yankees, maybe he'd be attainable. Now that "the plan" is in place, I don't see him going after any more soft tossing veterans in free agency. I think the most likely 2011 rotation will be Yo, Wolf, Parra, {guy from Prince trade}, Rivas/Rogers/Narveson. Not necessarily in that order. My optimism comes in with a belief that Wolf is better than he is showing this year, the defense will be better with someone else at 1B (making the rest of the infield defense better), Braun will bounce back, Cain will be better than many expect, our bullpen is good, young and cheap, and we will finally start seeing the young pitchers both at the MLB level and at AAA giving us insurance against injury/underperformance.