monty57

and that makes it indisputable fact

Start a new division called the AL "ESPN favorites" Division, which consists of the Yankees and Red Sox. They play each other every day and the team with more wins at the end of the year gets an automatic spot in the World Series. The rest of the teams could play out their season and playoffs, and the winner of the AL/NL Championship would get the honor of playing the Yankees/Sox. Then all would be right in ESPN's world, and New Yorkers and Bostonians can salivate that they can see the Yankees/Sox every day. No one in New York or Boston would believe that they have any advantage in winning the World Series. Yes, I'm joking

But they're projecting him to do a complete turnaround from what he's done the previous two years, when he hasn't had an injury that would seem to be a reasonable excuse for the drop in production. His one extreme year, three years ago seems to really be skewing what those projection systems are projecting. I really hope he's able to bump up his production. It would sure help the Brewers' chances. He is obviously capable of putting up bigger numbers, as he's done it in the past. However, something has happened (likely pitchers figuring him out), and he has put up pretty poor numbers in the recent past. Unless he's able to get a better eye at the plate without a significant loss of power, I see him as a .750-ish OPS guy. I hope I'm wrong.

I wasn't referring to what his pay should be, as I'm not overly interested in the dollar figure other than that full-time starters (at the same arby/free agent level) should be paid more than non-starters / bench players. Through ups and downs, salaries should remain relative, player-to-player. I would argue at this time that Hart is a fringe starting RF, and probably should be a platoon player, and therefore not be paid as a starter. He's going to get paid as a starter in large part due to the fact that the Brewers are woefully thin in the OF right now, and I believe that if Hart doesn't play better this year than he has in the past two that he will not be offered arby next year, and will be paid as the platoon player he probably is. My previous post is directed more at the methodolgy of using every possible number (aggregates) when compiling research, with the belief that more data is always better than less data. In my humble opinion, if you are trying to determine if Hart is qualified to be a starting RF in major league baseball, you compare him to others who are starting RFs in major league baseball. It skews his numbers if you compare him to the number of guys who really don't belong in the majors, and are only there because of injury, and are DFA'd or sent back to AAA at the earlist possible point. Why does this matter? I don't have the time right now to add up the stats of the 27 players who were able to put up 400+ ABs, but the "eyeball test" would appear that the average OPS of the actual starting RFs in baseball would be higher than .781. Therefore, stating that Hart is basically average is not true, unless you are saying he is average when you include all the scrubs that get thrown out there when teams don't have anyone better to play. Try to get the best data, not the most, and comparing apples to apples is better then comparing apples to a mix of apples and pumpkins. Is a .750-ish OPS corner OF with some athleticism going to be thrown out of baseball? Probably not. Is he an "average" performer (i.e. someone who is better than half the guys playing the position)? Absolutely not. Is he worth the $6-7MM the Brewers will have to pay him in 2011? Probably not. I hope Hart puts it together and proves that he is better than he has looked for the last year and a half, so that he will deserve his contract in 2011. Otherwise a minimum salary Lorenzo Cain (or someone else) will make Hart very expendable very soon.

He really wasn't that far off of average on offense. .335/.418/.753 vs. .339/.442/.781But he was 20th out of 27 RFs with 400+ ABs. Do the above referenced numbers include everyone who played (i.e. all the AAA guys who came up to fill in for an injury for a week)? Since the top 17 MLB RF's posted OPS over the .781 "average," and only 10 (including Hart) were under this "average," I'd guess the numbers are heavily skewed by part-time players. If the discussion is whether Hart is a full-time player, and deserves to be paid as such, his numbers should be compared to other full-time players, and the scrubs' numbers should be left out.

Last season, I saw some articles when Ortiz was struggling on players of that build hitting a cliff in their early 30's. I'm on board if they can sign Prince for an extra 2-4 years, but let some other team sign him to a big contract when he's closer to 30. I agree with HiandTight's logic that Prince will be most valuable to the Brewers if the minor league system can produce quality players at league minimum while Prince is eating up a lot of the payroll. I think this is the case, and is also why I'd like to see a shorter term deal for Prince (no 8-10 year deals), as this would allow the Brewers to sign more "Braun type" deals to the top players of the next crop (Lawrie, Escobar, etc.) that would start to get expensive about the time Prince's deal would be coming to a close. I do, however, agree with Russ in that you can't make an absolute statement without knowing everything that's on the table. If the Brewers are out of it this year, and they get offered a ridiculous deal for Prince, they'd have to at least consider it.

Let me clarify what I was saying. If he has a poor start to the season, I think there's a good chance he'll find himself on the bench If Hart is the starting RF to start the season (which is likely), and he looks like he did at the end of 2008, it is very likely that some combination of Gerut/Edmonds would take significant PT away from Hart. then cut Macha's bench players get about 3-5 PAs/week, so if Gerut takes the starting job away from Corey, and Corey gets little PT this season, with bad numbers (not enough PAs to overcome the bad start), then it is pretty likely the Brewers would not offer him arby at season's end, as they would essentially be required to give him a big pay raise, even if he is horrible. Maybe I should have said "would not be offered arbitration in the next offseason" instead of "cut," but they basically mean the same thing. fighting for a job on a minor league contract somewhere next year This would make Corey a free agent. If his most recent year (2010) were something like 300 PAs, .650 OPS, and in his previous two seasons (2008, 2009) he was in the bottom third of all MLB RFs in offensive production (as measured by OPS), how many teams would be jumping over themselves to sign him? There would probably be a team that would take a flier on him, so I probably overstated things by saying "minor league contract," but I would have to think he'd be making far, far less than the $4.15MM he's likely to make this season. I honestly care much less about what players make than most. I think Corey's being a bit foolish, as he's almost assuredly costing himself a lot of money, but my angst with Corey isn't contract related, it's performance related. His past performance leads me to think he should be soft-platooned with Gerut to start the season, but instead he's seemingly being handed the starting job. I hope Corey "finds it," but if he doesn't, I hope the Brewers do what's smart for the franschise, which, if the cards fall a certain way, may be to not offer Hart arby after this season, saving the team $5-7MM to use elsewhere. I'd rather this doesn't happen, as I'd rather see him play well and earn the pay raise, but if it makes sense for the franchise, I hope Melvin has the guts to do it.

Agreed. I may be wrong, but I believe the arbitration panel only uses the previous two years' data. If so, Hart really doesn't have much ground to stand on. He's been in the bottom third of all MLB RF's in offensive production (as measured by OPS) for those years. His 20/20 string of two years was broken last year. What's he going to say... "I'm the fastest guy on the roster?" I understand trying to maximize earnings, but Hart really played this wrong. He should've put his tail between his legs, took the "mandatory raise" he gets in arby, and busted his butt to do whatever it takes to play well again. If he has a poor start to the season, I think there's a good chance he'll find himself on the bench, then cut and fighting for a job on a minor league contract somewhere next year. I hope he gets things together and plays up to his ability. It'll help his future, and the Brewers could really use good numbers out of him.

I think if given playing time, Gerut could find the form that led to an .845 OPS in 2008. If healthy, Bush should go back to his low-to-mid 4's ERA he's had most of his career. I also think Escobar's bat will play fine in the majors, and the glove will excel. I predict Gamel will destroy AAA pitching, making for an interesting decision either mid-season or next off-season on what the Brewers' plans are for him in the future.

You thought the signing was good at the time, great. Just lease don't insult those who were against the signing by pretending the signing obviously looked good at the time. These boards were roughly split 50%/50% on the signing and the debate was very polarized. A lot of us were repulsed by Melvin's "Big game pitcher" rhetoric. But iirc, that was more the length of the deal than the fact that we needed at least one pitcher that could, with some reasonable degree of certainty, eat up some innings. No one thought he was a great pitcher, just a decent one who could eat innings. We had a decent team in 2006, and it imploded when Sheets and Ohka went down. We threw pitcher after pitcher out there until finally Villenueva had some degree of success as a fill-in. I doubt we would've had much debate if it had been a 2 year deal. This has turned into a Suppan thread instead of a Sheets thread, but going on my previous paragraph, I would guess that 2006 was a big reason why we didn't sign Sheets to a big extension when he wanted one. As good as he was when healthy, he was too big of an injury risk for the Brewers to sign to the monsterous contract he would have demanded at that time. With hindsight, we can now see that we already would have lost at least one full season to injury. Somehow, that has turned this into an anti-Suppan thread. I applaud Melvin for not crippling the franchise by extending Sheets when Sheets was rumored to have wanted an extension. If that makes him mad at us now, so be it.

Going into last season, how many would've said Gamel would be called up to sit the bench so that Counsell could play more? I don't doubt that Melvin traded for Gomez to be the starter, and I don't doubt that they signed Edmonds to be a backup. I do doubt that Macha will be able to let Edmonds sit on the bench while a 24-year-old struggles. I hope it doesn't happen, but I believe in actions over words. The actions I saw last year are that Macha is going to manage the team the way he wants. He seemed to favor older players to younger ones, and "the future" (aka player development) doesn't matter. He wasn't censured for this, he was brought back... why would he change? It's likely that Gomez will struggle at the plate, and his ability to steal bases doesn't appear to be something Macha holds in high regard. When he struggles, if Edmonds is showing any signs of life at the plate, I worry that Macha will play Edmonds at the expense of Gomez. Since Macha doesn't understand that 5 games isn't a large enough sample size to make statistics-based decisions, I highly doubt he uses "advanced defensive matrics." As long as Edmonds cathces most of the balls hit his way and makes a couple of diving catches, Macha will think he's fine in the field. Of course, I also feel that Gerut is probably our second best OF (all around), and he's the guy who is almost assured of no playing time, so maybe I'm letting that skew things. As I said, I like the pick-up of Edmonds, but I worry that Macha will turn it into a bad move, especially if Edmonds is able to hit a couple out of the park in the first week or so.

I agree, JB. However, as cynical as I am, here's my prediction: Edmonds will make the team, and will have a hot week to start the season. Edmonds will see more & more PT, and will get the majority of PT in CF, with Gomez getting more & more bench time. Edmonds' stat line will be respectable for the first part of the season due to a hot start, so people will feel this is justified, because "Gomez grounds out weakly to 2nd base every time up," and "Edmonds is still pretty good in the field, remember that diving catch he made." Gerut will not get more than 10 PAs in the first month. Hart will hit well enough (and make one leaping play at the wall) to keep him playing everyday, waiting for him to "break out." Melvin will say nothing. At the end of the year, Macha will get an extension, while Melvin will say something to the equivalent of "we misused Gomez a bit this season, and probably should have either played him more or sent him to AAA to get more playing time." This would be roughly the equivalent of 2009 giving Bill Hall 3B for no reason, not giving McGehee any ABs early on, and using Counsell's early season hot streak to justify playing him over Gamel, wasting a year of Gamel being "Brewer property." If it weren't for my fear of the above happening, I would be happy with this signing, as I think if used correctly, Edmonds could be helpful to this year's team, and does address the shocking lack of MLB-ready OFs in our system. I do feel bad for Gerut, as I feel that with PT, he's capable of being an .800+ OPS player that can play all three OF positions. Under Macha, there is no way Gerut plays if Edmonds is on the MLB team.

I think Brad Nelson going 0-for-21 to start last season has put into Melvin and Macha's mind that young players cannot be good bench players and we need "proven veterans" on the bench. I wouldn't think Macha would have anything to do with a decision like this, but this reeks of Macha's desire for a veteran bench, and hesitation to play the youngsters. Maybe the added versatility of being able to play more positions than Hernan led to this signing. Someone (most likely Melvin) doesn't seem to think Hernan's up to the task. Last year, when Hernan was playing pretty well at AAA, Mevin brought in Lopez when Weeks went down. Now, as others have mentioned, this move seems to signal Hernan's tenure as "Brewers' property" will soon come to an end. If so, I hope he's able to sign on with a team that will give him a chance.

As I predicted that day, the end result has been losing Sheets But that contract would have included paying Sheets market value (probably in the $15MM+ range) to sit out last year, and we'd owe him $15MM+ this year and for several more years for whatever he can provide. Remember that he wouldn't have had nearly the incentive to get in shape to start this season if he was already guaranteed $15MM+ instead of trying to sign a new contract. Even if Suppan wasn't signed, I doubt that Melvin would've offered Sheets the deal he would have been asking for. This was prior to the economy falling, so player salaries were still on the rise. The $15MM figure I mentioned above is probably way low for what Sheets would've wanted, and I'm sure he wanted a lot of years. For a player that's never injured (aka Sabathia), it may be worth breaking the bank. For a player who hasn't had an injury-free season in years, it's way too risky. Now, if Sheets was asking for a Suppan-esque 4 year / $40MM contract, Sheets would be on the team today, but why would he ever have settled for that? His injury in 2008, which cost him the entire 2009 season, shows why signing someone with an injury history like Ben Sheets has had to a long-term, big money deal does not generally work out well for small- to mid-market teams.

Whatever happens, I hope the bars don't stop the shuttles (and I doubt they will over $300). I travel in from out of town, and often meet friends and family for the games. Since I have the tickets, logistically, it's wonderful that we can all meet at Kelly's Bleachers before the game and go into the game together. It makes it really easy for groups coming from different cities to meet for the game. Plus, we can get on the shuttle, back to Kelly's and on the road before most people are out of the parking lot. For me, it's not about getting wasted at the bar... it's a matter of convenience.

That's when I hope the Cubs give him a 5-year / $70MM contract :-)

I like Ben, and hope he does well and remains injury-free, so he can live up to his potential. That said, the Brewers' lack of depth at SP meant that they had to go with more reliable starters. They couldn't take a flier on a guy who's likely to spend some time on the shelf this season. If the Brewers signed him, and he pitched to potential, it'd be a great move. The likely scenario is that he'd log 130 or so innings, meaning they'd need to go to AAA for help and we'd be in a situation similar to last season. High risk/high reward is lauded by many on this site, but Melvin needed to do some risk reduction in the rotation this off-season. His high-risk/high reward guys will be in AAA in the form of Mulder and Capuano, and in young guys stepping up from the minors.

I agree that this should go to arby. Maybe he finally needs to hear the team rip into him about why he's not a superstar. I can't imagine the team would lose this one. I've mentioned this before, but I really hope the Brewers run a "soft" platoon of Hart and Gerut in right field. One of them is likely to regain his old form, and if I had to guess, it'll be Gerut.

I was at that one as well. There was a group of girls that got up between innings and said "We're going to beat the traffic home," completely unaware of what was going on in the field. Without mentioning the perfect game going on (superstition), the guys I was with and I said that they may not want to leave. The girls had no idea why we said they shouldn't go, and they left. Almost missed history. I just get the feeling that the people that want to dump Bush dont know what they are talking about. I think there are some who only look at stats, and disregard outlying circumstances, such as injuries. Stat lines will never tell you if someone is playing injured, which Bush obviously was last year when his stat line fell apart. He isn't a world beater, but when healthy he is a productive part of the rotation and definitely worth what he's being paid. My guess is that he'll have a decent year and sign somewhere for $7-9MM/year as a free agent after the season's over.

I really hope Katin learns some plate discipline, as I'd love to see that power bat as a backup OF for the Brewers. I wouldn't mind seeing him as the 5th OF out of ST, but in this day and age no major league team will take a player that won't draw walks... even as a RH power hitter off the bench. Of course, I've never seen him in person, so for all I know he may be swinging at balls in the dirt.

You have to read the ball, run to the ball and catch the ball. People who have played make it look easy. Those who haven't look really ridiculous and turn a lot of outs into triples and inside the park HRs. Good OFs get a read as soon as the ball is hit. Some start their break on the swing. Some players are better than others at moving to new positions. Some average defenders can play equally well at multiple positions while some good defenders have a hard time moving to a new position. For example, Robin Yount hated LF, and asked to be moved to CF because it felt more comfotable to him. Thankfully, Braun has transitioned fairly well, while Hall, who is arguably more athletic, and definitely a better IF than Braun had all kinds of problems when he moved to CF. He was a great example of someone who could not read a ball off the bat. I don't doubt that Gamel could become at least an adequate corner OF if given time, but it would be a mistake to throw him out there without ever having played there.

I agree, Russ. Gamel may move in the future, but I doubt it happens this year. First, the Brewers do seem committed to keeping him there. Second, they are not going to throw someone who's never played a position to the wolves at the major league level. If he's going to switch, they'll give him PT there in the minors, or do what they did with Bill Hall and Ryan Braun, which is to give them the offseason to prepare. I think it's more likely that Gamel starts in AAA and comes up if either McGehee or Weeks gets hurt. McGehee moving to 2nd if Weeks gets hurt. Of course, Macha is manager, and Counsell would probably be the everyday player if either of the above happens, so we'll have to see. Something has to be done with Gamel soon, but the Brewers must feel that another year in the minors isn't going to hurt his value.

As Razzzor said, Gerut is going to be OF #4. I'm more optimistic on him than many, as he has been an .800+ OPS player in the past. I would like to see another corner OF with some pop signed to be a decent RH bat off the bench and injury / ineptitude replacement. We are pretty thin with only four OFs on the roster, three of those with big question marks. The Brewers did recently pick up Norris Hopper, but as it stands, my guess is that Gerut covers most of the days off in the OF, with Heether on the club as a RH bat / emergency 5th OF to start the season. If Cain can stay healthy, there's a chance that he could be MLB ready later in the season if Gomez gets hurt or isn't cutting it at the plate.

Risk reduction is an important thing for me. Any long term contract is risky, especially high dollar long term contracts. Prince is a player that is not likely to flame out during the tenure of the contract. That helps reduce the risk. Since every team needs to take some risk, I'd rather that risk go to your best players, and ones that are less likely to be "fluke" players or injury risks. Braun and Fielder are two relatively low-risk players. Wolf is less risk than Suppan, and I hope we don't regret the signing in a few years. Hopefully we can do more Braun-style singings with the best player(s) in the next crop, as I see the risk in signing someone like Lawrie to an 8 year/$40MM contract more beneficial than signing an average-ish 32-year-old to a 3 or 4 year $40MM deal. Of course, we have to stay within budget, and I think Melvin's smart enough to consider that when making long-term decisions.

Weeks' problems on defense have been summed up by coaches as trying to do things too fast. Randolph seems to have had an effect on Rickie in getting him to "slow the game down." I hope this can continue. He was brutal to watch early in his career, but has taken significant strides forward.