monty57

That goes along with his playing of Cattalanatto (no future with the team) nearly every day since Hart has been out instead of Gerut, who may be out starting CF next year. He finally started playing Gerut "when he sensed his bat was going to start heating up" a week or so ago.

I remember a game early in this season where BA was going on about how everyone was so enthralled by how Looper prepared for a game. At the time, I thought that this was probably something Duncan taught. I think the Brewers lost a lot when they lost Maddux. Duncan's ability to turn pitchers around, coupled with the Brewers' drop off from every one of their pitchers this year while Texas' team ERA has dropped from 5.37 to 4.28 could somewhat validate that a really good pitching coach can make a difference.

Macha started to lose me last offseason when he declared that signing a closer was much more important to this team than addressing starting pitching. He completely lost me during the whole Gamel debacle, and I see few qualities that make me think he's a good fit for the Brewers. He obviously prefers older players to younger players, which does not work for a mid-market team. He seems to have picked up a few "SABR-things" while in Oakland, but doesn't appear smart enough to know how to utilize them. For instance, players shouldn't steal bases unless they can be successful over 70% of the time. Okay, sounds good. How does Macha use this? He lets everyone steal at will for the first few games, and then shuts everyone down because they're around 50% for the team. We don't steal another base until Melvin made him. He uses sample sets that a third grader would know are inaccurate ("Well, I started Billy Hall today because he's hit .400 against this pitcher." In reality, it was a 2-for-5 day back when Hall knew how to hit). He intentionally walks at least one batter a game. I could go on, but I'd probably just get myself mad, so I'll end by saying that if he's the Brewers' manager next year, I will seriously consider taking a break from watching baseball for the season.

I think LaRussa utilizes the players he has, and isn't beholden to one style of play. When he has a slap hitter up, he'll hit-and-run, when he's in the right situation, he'll steal. I think too many people fall into the mindset that "x is always true," when rarely is anything always true. I think the valuation comment mentioned above is correct. The huge boom in popularity of the SABR movement recently has caused certain things to be overvalued, which naturally means other things will be overlooked. LaRussa definitely doesn't come off as a "SABR guy," so the Cardinals can probably find value at this time. For example, defense has become the hot-topic of the day (comments such as "Prince Fielder is average at best because of his poor defense" and Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreau having a hard time finding work are examples of this), so what do the Cards do? They stick an OF at 2B, a pitcher in CF and bring in all bat, no glove DeRosa. They're good this year mainly because of their pitching, and it has been built by doing almost exactly what most people would say a small market team should never do but is a great example of taking advantage of undervalued players (posters like TheCrew07 may cry when they read this, as they've been pining for the Brewers to do some of these things): -Back in 2003, when young pithcers were undervalued, they traded injury-prone JD Drew and Eli Marrero for Adam Wainright, Ray King and Jason Marquis. -They picked up Wellemeyer off of waivers from the Royals. -They got Piniero and cash from the Red Sox for Sean Danielson. -Carpenter was signed as a free agent from Toronto after he was injured. They stuck with him (paying him $300,000/year while he was injured) and it's paid off. -Theo Epstein's spreadsheet failed to recognize that Smoltz was tipping his pitches so he was thrown away. Duncan spotted this, quickly corrected it, and they've got another decent starter for nothing. Duncan can be given credit for turning these pitchers around, but they were all high ceiling guys that were, for one reason or another, undervalued at the time the Cardinals picked them up, adn they've turned into one of the best rotations in baseball this year. As Heartbreak Yid mentioned, they also took advantage of a situation this year where the two favorites in the division were struck with injuries and underperformance, and emptied their system to win now. At the time, I really didn't want the Brewers to try to keep up, and looking back, it would have been horrific if they had, as they would have a depleted farm system, and still wouldn't make the playoffs. Historically, many of the Brewers' faults have lied with poor (as in non-rich) ownership and poor (as in non-good) general management. That seems to have changed. Many of the Cubs' foibles have come from wealthy corporate ownership wanting to put just enough talent on the field to fill the stands, and maximize profit (I work with someone who attended many Cubs GM meetings, and he's told me that wasn't just rumor, it was the rule of the day). This, too appears to have changed. The Cardinals have been able to be kind of a big fish in their division, as the true big fish (Chicago) wasn't taking advantage of their situation, and the Reds, Brewers and Pirates hadn't been consistantly good for a long, long time. By default, the Cardinals have been able to make a lot of playoff appearances, which will naturally lead to more visits to the World Series.

If the Brewers had a top pitching prospect knocking on the door at AAA, then maybe Soup would be sent down. It makes no sense to send Suppan to AAA or DFA him (while still paying him) so that someone like Mike Burns can pitch. Yes, the Suppan contract looks bad. However, as sad as it is to say, Suppan is one of the five best MLB ready pitchers in the Brewers' organization at this time. As far as JJ, it does suck for him, but as others have stated, if he had been playing at a reasonably productive level, he never would have been sent down. It is good for the Brewers, in that he should be more tradeable (sorry, FTJ, I have no idea how much more), and he could possibly be the starter next season, keeping Escobar in AAA until mid-season so we get another year of his service. Then trade JJ while he still has another year and a half of "team control," and have Alcides step in.

I think there might be a forest for the trees arguement going on here. Whether Bush is best classified as a #2, #3, #4 or #5, I think the odds of him being in the Brewers' rotation next year (barring major injury before then) is probably 99%. First, we need to find a starter to replace Looper, as there is a good chance he will not be back next year. If that starter is better than Bush, Suppan and Parra, and we pick up a second pitcher in the offseason who is better than Bush, Suppan and Parra, then we will need to determine which of those three wil not be in the rotation. Until and unless that happens, we will likely see Yo, Bush, Parra and Suppan in the 2010 rotation. As for the 2010 lineup, my guess would be: C Salome* 1B Prince 2B Weeks SS Escobar, although I'm beginning to believe that Hardy may have lowered his trade value so much that he may start the 2010 season with the Brewers 3B Gamel* LF Braun CF Gerut* RF Hart C Rivera IF McGehee IF Counsell OF Bourgeois-type* OF Katin-type* SP Yo SP Parra SP Bush SP Suppan SP either FA or traded for CL Hoffman - we'll offer him arby and no one will give up first rounder for him, so he'll be back for one year SU Coffey RP Stetter RP Villy RP DiFelice RP McClung RP someone like Narveson or Smith from minors * If Macha is still manager, none of these players would ever see the field unless Melvin / Mark A. held a gun to the manager's head I'm torn on Hardy. I assumed he would be gone, but he's played Melvin into a tough situation. He probably won't net much in a trade anymore, so I'd probably rather keep him than trade him simply for salary relief. However, if his salary were off the books, and we don't bring Kendall, Lopez, Looper and Cameron back, we should be able to compete for a good FA starter this offseason (in the $10-15MM/year range). I'd like to see a "big trade" this offseason, but the usual suspects (Hardy, Hart, Weeks) would be major selling low deals. Unless Fielder, Gamel or Escobar are traded, I don't see a good, young starter coming back via trade. More likely, we'll need to let some of our expiring contracts fall off the books and hope to land a big free agent. Given our past experiences with this, it's a little scary.

I agree that Cameron is worth what he's paid. The question in my mind is whether the Brewers will pony up the money to keep him. First, I'd guess that he will figure that he's getting near the end of his career, so he'll push for a multi-year contract, and he'll likely want a pay raise. Remember, when the Brewers signed him, he was serving a drug suspension, so the market for him was thin. I'd guess he'll push for somewhere around a 2 yr/$25MM or 3 yr/$36MM deal. Here's how I see the Brewers next year (including my uneducated arby guesses): C Salome $400k 1B Fielder $10.5MM 2B Weeks $3MM SS Escobar $400k (only if Hardy is traded, which may now be difficult) 3B Gamel $400k LF Braun $1MM CF Gerut $2MM RF Hart $4MM C Rivera $750k IF McGehee $400k IF Iribarren $400k OF Bourgeois $400k OF ? SP Gallardo $400k SP Parra $400k SP Bush $6MM SP Suppan $12.5MM SP ? RP Coffee $1.5MM RP Riske $4.5MM RP Stetter $400k RP Villanueva $1MM RP McClung $2MM RP DiFelice $400k RP ? - Narveson type $400k This adds up to around $53MM, plus we still owe around $7.2MM for Hall and will owe around $1MM if we buy out Looper's option, putting us somewhere around $62MM. It does not include Cameron, Hardy (who may add around $6MM to payroll if he isn't traded), Kendall, Hoffman, Lopez, Counsell, Weathers or Looper. I'd assume a payroll of around $80MM, so we should have around $18MM to find bench / relief help, a starting pitcher and possibly upgrade other positions. I'd guess Counsell will be back, so figure around $17MM. If we sign Cameron, I'd figure we'll have around $5MM to sign a starting pitcher and strengthen our bench and bullpen (including a possible closer). Of course, we could dump Gerut and maybe others, but it still wouldn't be much money left. Plus, there is a definite possibility that we won't find a trading partner for Hardy, further limiting our resources. For this reason, I'd guess Cameron won't be back. We'll offer him arby for the draft pick, but I highly doubt he'll accept, as someone will give him a 2-3 year deal. To go back on topic, I hope Gerut is retained to bridge the gap to Cain rather than playing Patterson, but I don't mind the fact that Melvin was able to pick him up on a minor league deal, and am glad that he is playing well.

I still enjoy watching the games, and like others have said, there will be a big hole to fill once the season's over. I look at this as a decent team that had a lot of injury problems, along with a few players underperforming, so I am not as upset as many are about where we are this year. I think every team has a range / variance for how many games they'll win. In other words, a team with ".500 talent" should win somewhere between 76-88 games around 90% of the time. If everything goes right, that ".500 team" could win the division, and if everything goes wrong, they might only win 70 games. I think just about everything has gone wrong for the Brewers this year other than the way Prince and Counsell/McGehee have played (they're about the only ones playing better than expected). Even with that, we still have a shot at a .500 record, which is something that hadn't been done in Milwaukee for the better part of a generation. In other words, this team playing at their worst is still better than most recent Brewers' teams have been while playing at their best. My biggest frustration for the year has been with how Macha uses his players. I can put up with a lot, but it still frustrates me to see players who aren't going to be a part of the future (Kendall, Cattalanatto, Counsell) playing over players who are probably going to be a part of the future (Rivera, Gerut, McGehee). My second biggest frustration was that we didn't sell when it seemed pretty obvious that we should have. I can't really be mad at anyone (players, coaches or Melvin) for injuries, as they're part of the game. We just happened to have a lot of them this year, and it cost us. Look at the Cubs this year. They were "supposed to be" a 90+ win team, they had injuries, and will probably end the season somewhere in the Brewers' neighborhood. I also can't be mad at substitute players like Burns, who shouldn't have been on the roster to begin with if we didn't have such a problem with injuries.

Football also has a rule where if a player doesn't like his contract he can sit out most of the season, come back for the final few games and be credited for a whole season. Also, since players know the contracts are not guaranteed, they insist on much higher signing bonuses than baseball players receive. In football, players do not have to toil through the minors and then get league minimum for three years before graduating to a three year arbitration process which holds their contract value down until, sometime in their late 20's or early 30's, they are finally able to sell their talents to the highest bidder. No system is pefect, and I hope baseball continues to make attempts at competitive balance. As far as guaranteed contracts, I agree that it stinks to have bad contracts bogging down your team, but the team signs the contract the same way a player does. If one side is obliged to honor a contract, then both sides should be, otherwise what use is the contract. How would we feel if Braun all of a sudden said "I'm worth more than I've signed for, so I'm opting out of my contract and becoming a free agent."

But those "diamonds in the rough" would need to enter the draft, so one team's academy would polish them up for another team to draft them. An unintended consequence of an international draft would likely be that MLB teams would be less likely to take teenagers and help them become major league talented players unless they were able to draft them when they were 15 or 16, which would carry a huge risk, and would have labor law (and contract law) issues if the players ever came to the U.S. I also think players like Ichiro, Matsusaka, etc. probably wouldn't come over if they're going to make $400,000. But how does that really differ from someone like DiFelice? He's toiled in professional baseball for years, and now will make around $400,000 for three years. Or how about Joe Dillon, who was injured and out of baseball, but comes back, and as a rookie made league minimum. Granted, we're talking foreign stars vs. American scrubs, but in theory, if a very good American player comes in at age 30 without ever playing in the majors, he will be subject to pre-arbitration salary and arbitration before he'll be allowed to become a free agent. If you are not going to draft accomplished foreign players, and you are going to let academies find "diamonds in the rough" and put them in that team's roster, who is going to be drafted in the international draft? I don't think there's a huge market for Japanese high schoolers and "undiscovered" 19-year-old Latin players. That really is a question I have: "What international players will be in the draft?" I had assumed it to mean that Cuban defectors, Korean, Chinese, Japanese, etc. players, and young Latino players would all be subject to the draft, just like Americans and Canadians are. Again, there are a lot of issues that will need to be ironed out. You've brought up some good points, which makes me worry that the "international draft" will occur and we won't find many good major league players out of it, due to all the loopholes.

Just to be devil's advocate (I am a supporter of an international draft): Say team A has invested tens of millions of dollars into their latin camp and it is starting to pay off in bringing talent to their major and minor league systems team B gave up on their latin camp 15 years ago and has not put a dime in since Team A is going to lose out with the implementation of an international draft, as any player from these countries will have to declare themselves eligible for the draft, and it will be pretty easy to send some scouts down to look at the players declaring. The millions of dollars invested in team A's program will be a sunk cost with extremely limited additional returns. I think you are correct in thinking that some form of a MLB-affiliated Latin American Minor League system could be very popular and profitable. Of course, it would probably be kind of an equivalent of high school baseball up here, as the advanced prospects would likely still play in the current (USA based) minor league teams. For Japan (and Cuba), implementing an age limit would not address the main problem, as most of the big name players (Ichiro, Matsusaka, Fukudome, etc) are already established players when they come over, and they are the ones that give teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs an advantage over smaller market teams. The "percentage of slot money" idea is probably a better solution, but I would guess that any solution will likely mean that we'll lessen the number of superstar Japanese players coming over, which would be a shame. However, I can get over this pretty easily by noting that it will limit the unfair advantage certain teams have in signing these players.

I don't think it'll be a big fight from the union. Less draft $$ = more free agent cash = more union $$. That said, if they go with a hard slot, other changes need to be made to the system. Right now your HS draftee can go to college, and your college juniors and juco guys can also go back. If there is a hard slot with no other tweaks, those guys can go back to school if they feel they fall too far. They'd need to adopt something like the NFL where, once you declare eligible, there's no going back. Maybe the team gets to hold the player's rights without limit if they offer a contract. Agreed, the fight would come from the big market teams, who can use their available cash to sign top talent that small market teams can't afford to draft. This is the big problem with the current system. The worst teams get the best picks, but often can't afford to sign the best players, so the better teams with worse picks can still get the best players. In listening to Melvin's rants, it seemed to go one step further this year. Draft eligible players were deciding which teams they wanted to play for, and telling all the other teams not to bother drafting them, as they wouldn't sign unless they were drafted by a team they wanted to play for. It seems something needs to be done, and (on paper at least) a "hard slot" would be a pretty easy fix. I have never liked that certain international players weren't subject to the draft, but there are a couple of points that will need to be addressed. A couple that come to mind are that Japanese teams will not allow their players out of their contracts unless they are compensated, which may lead to Japanese superstars not arriving until they're out of their prime. Also, teams have put a lot of money into their Latin American programs, which would seem to be useless if all of the players need to declare for the draft. Finally, the players' union will fight this one, as players like Matsusaka (? sp) would get league minimum rather than $50MM, so the union would lose a ton of money. I'm all for the international draft, but I'd guess there will be a lot of opposition.

This offseason would be his highest value year, but I think we can only trade him this offseason if we are willing to give up on next season before it begins. Logically, that might make sense, as we could rebuild for when we'd be free of the Hall and Suppan deals, and our young pitchers could start filling in the rotation, but it would be a horrible PR move, and we'd be lucky to sell 2MM tickets in 2011. I would love to see Prince sign a four-year deal this offseason, buying out two years of FA. It seems unlikely to happen, due to the presence of Boras, but I'd bet the Brewers will at least put the offer on the table, as Prince is good, young and marketable. If he will not sign an extension, I could see him being traded mid-season next year if we aren't in the hunt, avoiding the arbitration mess the following offseason, and allowing the big market team he'd be traded to to work out an extension. As much as I like Prince and wish he could be a Brewer for a long time, I'd hate to see him leave and have us only get a couple of draft picks.

There's a possibility that DFAing him actually increased what they got for him. It gave any possible suitor a time frame in which they had to come up with the best deal in order to land him. Melvin was able to play Cincy against Seattle to get the best deal, as both teams knew that they would have to compete in the open market for him if they didn't make a trade. Of course I would have liked to have received more, but being realistic, Hall is not worth very much, and that $1.3MM can now be used in a more productive fashion. As far as Hardy for Harang, I heard from what I believe to be a fairly reliable source that the deal was ready and Mark A. axed it in the final hour. I would assume this would only be due to financial reasons. When I read the Hall for Harang rumor, I hoped and prayed it was true, but couldn't really bring myself to believe that the Reds would be that dumb. While uninspiring, the trade that actually went through is probably more than I would have initially hoped for, as I expected the Brewers to just pay for all of Hall's contract next year. Who knows, an extra million or two could be the difference in signing a Suppan instead of a Lilly. They were in first place halfway through the season... 43-38 on the 4th of July... with their staff intact. With Hall, Parra and Hardy all underperforming to the extreme. When guys started getting hurt is when everything unraveled. Agreed. I was less worried about our starting staff to begin the season as I was worried about the lack of depth at SP. Once the injuries started to pile up, I thought we should cut bait on guys like Cameron, Hoffman, etc. and start playing for next year.

Someone mentioned this in the "JJ Hardy to AAA" thread, but it really smells like there's a Hardy-and-Hall-for-high-priced-pitcher trade in the works. Otherwise, it doesn't seem to make sense to simply DFA Hall now, since you are going to have to pay him anyway. I thought it might happen in the offseason, when a suitable replacement could be found, but not now. It just seems odd.

Are we going to be on the hook for Hall's contract next year? Yes, but he won't use up a 25-man roster spot that could be filled with someone who could help the team.

I don't understand why so many folks are ragging on this move. From a player prospective, I don't mind the move, as I like Weathers. However, I've all but given up on this year and want to look to the future. If this is a move for next year, Weathers' contract takes around $4MM from payroll flexibility for next year. I'd guess that means that if Cameron cannot be signed, as we then wouldn't be able to pay Looper's replacement any more than league minimum unless someone like Hardy is traded for someone of equal or lesser pay. I think the only way at this point that we get a decent SP for Hardy is if we pick up some salary (Hardy for Harang type deal). Without this move, I figured we'd have around $15MM to spread out between CF, SP, RP and our bench. Even if his option isn't executed, he will cost us $1/2 million, which is probably why Cincy was willing to part with him for nothing. Also, while the recent bullpen additions may allow us to end the year at .500, they will disallow us from giving guys like Dillard a chance to pitch in the majors this year to see if they'll be a solid part of the 'pen next year. This goes beyond the bullpen. Counsell is playing about 80% of the time over McGehee. Kendall is playing over Rivera. Cat is playing over Gerut. In other words, guys who likely will not have a future with the team are taking time away from guys that do have a future with the team. As long as we continue to hold out hope that we will suddenly overcome injuries and play red hot while the three teams ahead of us will fall flat on their faces, we will hamper out future. This move will help us this season. I don't doubt that at all. When we have to decline arbitration to Cameron and let him walk for nothing because we refused to trade him this season, I'll look at this move as part of the reason why. Whether we keep Weathers and hamper our ability to sign a SP, or dump Weathers and pay him $400,000 that we otherwise would not have had to pay, there is a chance it will hurt our ability to compete for a playoff spot next year. $400k doesnt' seem like a lot when looking at an $80MM payroll. However, it is a lot when your available payroll is only around $15MM.

I heard from what I think is a reliable source that "the trade that didn't happen" was Hardy to the Reds for Harang, so that's probably the type talent Melvin's looking for. I think it's pretty likely that Hardy will be traded prior to next year, but I'd guess that Hart will still be here. His value is low and we don't have anyone to replace him, especially if Cameron is gone.

Well, my best guesstimate with a roster of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Gamel, Salome/Lucroy, Braun, Gerut, Hart and a bench of Hall, Rivera, McGehee, Util IF (Iribarren?), OF, a starting rotation of Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, ? and bullpen of Coffey, Villy, Stetter, Swindle, Riske, DiFelice, ? would come to somewhere around $64-65MM. Players almost never get salary reductions in arbitration. It can happen but because of the way arbitration is handled it just doesn't happen. You're probably right, and with that in mind, here are the current salaries: Hoffman $6.0MM, Cameron $10.0MM, Lopez $1.5MM, Kendall $4.6MM Looper's option is for $6.0MM A lot hinges on whether we're going to trade salary (Hardy, Hart, Fielder) or if we can find a sucker, I mean someone to take on Hall's contract. As it stands, it looks like we'll have around $15MM to cover a starting pitcher, a backup OF and some bullpen help. Looking at that, it may be too risky to offer Cam arby unless we know he won't accept. I think he's worth the money he's making, but we may not be able to afford it. If he accepts and we can't trade Hardy for a SP, we'd end up with someone like Burns as our 5th starter next year.

Nate, I think the hang-up is that you asserted that the Brewers could offer Kendall a small figure, which he would reject, and the Brewers would get a pick for him. That's not how the system works. The Brewers have to decide by a certain date whether or not they are going to offer arbitration to their free-agent-to-be players (no value given). The players then have to decide whether to reject arbitration and become a free agent or accept arbitration, which means they either come up with a contract or go into arbitration. If the player accepts arbitration, then both sides submit a blind offer (neither side knows what the other side offers until after both offers are made), and the offers are submitted to an arbitor (judge). Both sides present their case and the arbitor decides which of the two bids is more fair. Whatever the arbitor decides is binding on both sides. I would guess the fact that the Brewers have played Kendall almost every day would work in his favor. It would be hard to argue that someone's not worth a pay raise when you have played him every day for two years. To FTJ's point, if the Brewers made a low-ball offer, the judge is almost certain to side with the player, no matter what their bid. I would also guess that if the Brewers offered Kendall arbitration, he would almost certainly accept it. He makes $4.6MM this season, so even if the Brewers won the arby case, he'd be likely to make $4MM or so. If they wanted him back next year, it would be much safer for them to simply not offer arbitration and sign him as a free agent.

I think the only way Looper could be offered arby is if the Brewers execute their option and Looper does not. The only reason he would not execute his option would be if he's looking for a better deal than the $6MM or so his option is worth, which he wouldn't receive in arbitration. It will be interesting to see how they handle the Looper situation. $6MM isn't a terrible price for him, but it is the only opening in the Brewers' staff if they are looking for an upgrade, as Yo, Parra, Bush and Suppan will all be back. If I were a betting man, I'd say they execute their option, and Looper declines his option, looking for a multi-year deal. Then the Brewers offer him arbitration, which he would also decline. I hope Melvin has more knowledge than I, so he won't be betting when he makes his call. I agree with most of you that it would be a big mistake to offer arby to Kendall. I agree with jjfanec regarding Hoffman. Being Type A is perfect for us. If he is able to find a suitor, we get early draft picks. If not, we get Hoffman back at a reasonable price next year. Unless we see Gerut as our starting CF next year (which is a possibility), we will likely offer arby to Cameron. IIRC, we could offer up to 20% off this year's salary, so we could have him for 1 year/$8MM if the arbitor rules in our favor. I'd guess that if he's not a Type A, some other team will offer him a multi-year contract, so he probably wouldn't accept arby, and will play elsewhere next year, netting us a draft pick. When we traded for Lopez, I believe Melvin commented on the draft picks, so I'm pretty sure he'll be offered arby. This has been discussed elsewhere, so I won't go into any greater detail on it here.

I think our first effort at finding Looper's replacement will be by trading Hardy. If that doesn't go through, I could see Melvin going after a Type A if and only if one of two things happens. (1) they receive a first rounder for Hoffman and/or Cameron or (2) they end up in the bottom half of teams, so they only lose a second rounder. Losing some of Hall's salary in a trade would be helpful as well, but that's probably unlikely. It would be wonderful if they could get another top of the rotation starter to go along with Yo, and now would be a good time to do it, as it would fill a huge hole for next season, he'd be able to help usher in the next wave of prospects, and that pitcher's contract would be ending around the time we could fill our rotation with guys from the farm. I really don't want to see them pull another Suppan... sign an average pitcher to a long term deal. I'd rather they spend an extra $2-4MM/year to get quality. If they can't trade for or sign a good pitcher, then try for another one-year contract like we did for Looper this season and hope it pays off.

I'm not so worried about the last week as I am worried about how they've played since before AS break. It's been a long time since they've played well. Before the last two vs. Washington, wasn't it over a month since they'd even won two in a row? I still try to have faith, and will continue to root the team on, but it's just looking more and more to me like they may be better off next year if they sell this year. Hardy's still another option I didn't mention above. A Hardy/Hoffman or Hardy/Cameron package might be enough to land a young pitcher, especially if a team considers they'll not only get two good players, but possibly four good draft picks. P.S. I don't think much of Kendall either, and it hurt to write that they may get something for him, but you never know what another GM may be looking for. For some reason, Yost and Macha won't give him a day off.

Maybe, but if we don't bring Cameron back, which I feel is unlikely, and Cain isn't ready, which I feel is likley, then Gerut won't be shooting for a 4/5 spot... he'll be our starting CF. Right now, our choices are Gerut, Bourgeios, Cain and Patterson. Unlike the rest of them, Gerut has had success at the major league level, so I'd say he's the leading horse at this point. Cain is most likely our long-term solution there, but at this point, I'd keep Gerut for a season at $2MM so that Cain can get a little more "seasoning" in the minors. For those saying he's no good, look beyond this year's numbers. He had a .845 OPS last year in San Diego's pitchers' park, and is a career .763 OPS player. That's right around where Jacoby Ellsbury (.771) and Grady Sizemore (.764) are sitting this year. He was hurt, so he missed a couple of seasons, but he appears to be back to full speed now. Most players don't play as well, either at the plate or in the field, when they don't get regular playing time. I think we'd be fine letting Gerut play CF for us next year, making sure Cain is ready to go before handing him the keys. The only way I see them letting Gerut go is if Melvin & Co are pretty certain that Cain will put up similar or better numbers than Gerut for league minimum. I'm conservative in that regard, so I'd prefer to go with the more proven commodity, as long as it's not too expensive.

Softer then Washington and San Diego, where we just went 3-4? We haven't won a series in a month and a half. I'm usually not a negative person, but it really seems like there are a lot of buyers out there right now, and we could take advantage of that if we would just realize that our chances of making the playoffs are slim and getting slimmer, and our best move is likely to be selling off some parts to get players that can help us as soon as next year. Cameron and Hoffman both should be pretty attractive, especially if they're going to be Type A free agents (I don't know if they will or not). Counsell would probably bring back something, as he plays all over the field, is putting together a career season, and has been a good playoff player in the past. Even Kendall might bring something in a trade for a team looking for "veteran leadership" for their pitching staff. As for Hart, I do wish him the best. I hope he's able to get fully healthy and come back strong after the injury. I, too, see him as an important part of next year's team, if for no other reason than that his trade value is probably as low as ever right now, so holding onto him is probably the best option. We know he has a good player in him. We've seen flashes of it this season, and I hope that player emerges for next season.