monty57

As hard as he tried, Melvin was unable to trade Jenkins this offseason, so had we re-signed Lee, I would guess our OF would have consisted of Lee in LF, Hall in CF and a Jenkins/Hart platoon in RF. Jenkins' option would definitely not be picked up after the season, so Hart would've waited one more season to be an everyday starter. The next few years would then be set with Lee, Hall and Hart. This, of course assumes that Melvin still would have offered Hall his contract extension. With Lee signed, and Braun coming up, he may have decided to let Hall play out his last year of arby (which may or may not have been a good thing, depending on how this season goes). If Hall was not signed to a long-term deal, he could have been manning 3rd this season, with Hart playing full-time in CF. That would mean that Braun would not yet be with the Brewers. As has been mentioned, the money probably wouldn't have been there to sign Suppan. I would guess that it would not have had any bearing on the Davis trade, as that wasn't budget driven. Therefore, our starters would have Villy replacing Suppan, and our bullpen would include several of the current AAA guys, with Capellan still be playing a prominant role. We may be a touch better this year if he were signed, but we may also be a touch worse. Had Hart not gotten injured earlier this season, I'd guess the differences in his numbers vs. those of Carlos would be pretty slim. Our OF would look better next year with Carlos there (figuring Jenkins to be gone). However, I'd be pretty upset when we started losing Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and the rest because we're paying a 37-year-old $20MM to hit 20 home runs.

What does everyone think of Chris Cody (the guy we got for Capellan)? He seems to me to be a guy that wasn't noticed by a lot of scouts due to a perceived lack of dominant stuff, but he's put up some pretty good numbers. The Major Leagues thread turned into more of a disussion of Capellan's character, but I'd like to see what people think of Cody. Is he a Power 50 player? What do you see as his ceiling? Being 23, is he going to be "fast tracked" if he shows he can perform? Also, MinorLeagueBaseball.com has him on Brevard's roster, but they don't have anything else about him. Does anyone know when he's scheduled to make his first start?

While I always like seeing Melvin swidle a AAA nugget from another organization, I have to agree that if the Brewers are shopping during this season, they will go after a proven Major Leaguer. Most often, this is a "rent-a-player," and out of this year's crop, I would like to see the Brewers acquire Adam Dunn. Jenkins is due to go into his two-month long slump any time now, which will hurt our offense. Even if this doesn't happen, Dunn is still a siginificant upgrade. Could you imagine the lineup with Hart, Hardy, Fielder, Dunn, Braun, Hall, Estrada, Weeks? That's a murderer's row.

I think the month of July is "big" because it leads up to the trade deadline. If the Cubs make up a few games, and are only 2-4 games back, they would likely make a bid for someone like Buehrle, who could help them immensely in their playoff push. If the Brewers can gain a few more games on them over the next few weeks, and the Cubs are 10 games back, I'd think it would be unlikely that they'd go after a "rent-a-player."

I was looking through the list of Brewers' draftees, and I think Jack Z. has as much to do with this team's turnaround and subsequent success as Doug Melvin. Pre Jack, a decade's worth of #1 picks netted us Sheets, Jenkins and not much else. Post Jack has netted us a field full of young studs. That being said, I agree with the posters that stated Chicago (and other big markets) want flashier names. I don't see the Cubs going after someone with no prior GM experience. I could see Gord Ash being a candidate, as he's had success in Toronto as a GM in addition to what he's done with Milwaukee. Bottom line: I'd hate to lose either of them, but unfortunately that sometimes comes with success

Jenkins is only 59 starts in LF from holding the Brewers record for most starts at that position (currently held by Ben Ogilvie with 899). That's something he should do this season. Cirillo at 3B (848 games) and Burnitz in RF (737 games) could be records Braun and Hart could touch if they both stay healthy and productive. The rest of them are too far off to fathom. Yount has started more at both SS (1479) and CF (1150) then any other Brewer. Ah, the days before free agency.

Good to see the Brewers are only 341 games under .500 for their tenure. Nothing nine straight 100-win seasons won't cure. I've never really ventured too far into the site, thanks for the heads up.

Very good discussion everyone. I just wanted to add that I was watching yesterday's game against the Giants with someone who used to work in the Cubs organization. The first thing he said when he saw Vargas pitching was "his arm angle's different when he throws his fastball." Later he said he wasn't doing it, so Vargas may occasionally "tip" his fastball. I thought this was interesting, because it may be why he gets so many batters on. When he gets in the stretch, he may not tip his pitch. If he's getting hit because of tipping his pitch, and he stops tipping the pitch, he would likely get out of trouble at a higher rate than he statistically "should." On the "when to pitch from the stretch" topic, in last night's Cubs game, Marquis started pitching exclusively from the stretch mid-game. The announcers figured it was because he was uncomfortable on the mound, leading to his early wildness. This would absolutely fall into the "can't be measured by statistics" camp. As for Bush's "unluckiness" of which Ennder spoke, I too remember Bush's first start, where a badly misplayed third out by Bill Hall ended up costing Bush 4 extra earned runs. This may not seem like a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but it is a big reason his ERA has been as high as it's been this season. When something like this happens early on in the season, you start with a large ERA, and it takes a lot of "average" innings to get it back to where it should be. Right now, if those runs hadn't scored in that one game, his ERA would drop by nearly half a point - or nearly 25%. I understand the arguement that the defense has saved him some runs, but to this point, it seems to have cost him more than it has saved. To put this another way, if a hitter started the year 10-for-10, he could go 0 for his next 20 and still be a .333 hitter. However, if someone started the season 0-for-20, he'd probably be demoted to AAA. If he did stick around, he'd need to bat .310 the rest of the season to be a .300 hitter for the season (based on 600 AB), all because of a bad start. I'm glad to see that Yost is looking at things from different angles. As has been stated, stats tell a lot, and they are very beneficial in helping to project what is likely to happen in the future... but there are other factors as well, and a manager needs to consider everything when making a decision.

sbrylski06, that's pretty much my thoughts as well. I expect Yo to only get one start, as I believe the next start could be skipped due to a day off. I hope they send him back to AAA to bring up a reliever and keep Yo on a 5-day rotation.

Im just curious...lets say that Selig all of a sudden does take a hardball stance on changing the draft. How much of a fight would the players union put up? I cant imagine it would be a lot, so why not just do it already? Capping rookie contracts and creating a world-wide draft would cost the union a LOT of money (Ex: Matsusake signing a $50MM+ contract vs. getting league minimum / arbitration for the next six seasons). The new rules for the draft were just instituted in the new CBA, so the earliest it could happen is when the new CBA expires, as U.S. Labor Laws would not allow for Selig to "just do it." Even then, the owners would have to give up a lot in order for either of these two things to happen.

LaPorta is a guy that coaches in the SEC (a pretty good conference) were afraid to pitch to, with 30 intentional walks, leading to a ridiculous OBP of .589. That is where the Hatteberg reference comes in - a high OBP guy. Also, throw in that he switched positions to play first and you've got your "comparison." From what I read, LaPorte wasn't a bad catcher, it's just that Miami had a tremendous defensive catcher, so LaPorte went to 1B. Now if you consider that Hatteberg has average power, while LaPorte hit 20 HR in 52 games (probably would've been more if not for the 30 intentional walks), with a slugging pct of .817, I don't think it's a valid comparison. Plus, it seems some dropped LaPorte on their lists due to a sub-par Junior year, which seems from all accounts to be due to the fact that he was injured for most of the season. Scouts (including Jack Z) are calling LaPorte the best power bat in the draft, so I don't see where the "low ceiling" moniker is coming from. This seems to me to be a guy with plus, plus power and plate discipline who will play average defense, and I'm absolutely fine with that. As far as a change in philosophy, I don't see that either. Prince and Hardy were a HS bats, Weeks and Braun were college bats. Where's the trend?

Thanks for the scouting report on Merklinger, Homer, although I definitely wouldn't call it glowing. Sounds like that scout thinks he's got one slightly above average pitch and no control. Boy, it's good to be a lefty.

"He called me and said that the (Cincinnati) Reds had called and said they were going to definitely take me with their next pick," Lucroy said. "He called the Brewers and the (Colorado) Rockies, teams that had picks right in front of the Reds, and told them if they wanted to draft me they needed to do it now. It put a little pressure on them." The Brewers had pick number 101, with the Rockies picking next at 102 ahead of the Reds' No. 104 pick. Colorado took catcher Lars Davis of Illinois right after Lucroy's selection. Boy, that sucks for the Reds. Maybe that's why it's not a good idea to let people know who you're going to draft. I'm excited about Lucroy. For those of you who know more about college vs. minor league stats, how does Lucroy stack up against Salome... their birthdays are five days apart. As far as LaPorta, I can't see how drafting the best power bat in the draft is a bad thing. As long as he can play LF (which it appears the Brewers think he can) he seems to be a perfect fit. At his age, it would seem likely that he could be up sometime next season or early in 2009 to fill in one of the two holes in the lineup (Catcher is the other) that we don't have filled up long-term. The Berkman analogy mentioned early in this thread seems to be a good one. LaPorte plays LF while Prince is around. If the Brewers re-sign Prince, great. If not, LaPorte shifts back to 1B. I hate to think this way, but if Prince continues to hit the way he is, he's going to get very expensive very quickly. Cabrera and Zambrano just set record arby contracts (I believe $7MM in year one and $10.5MM in year three). In a few years, when Prince hits arby, he could see a $10MM contract, and could price himself out of Milwaukee in the same way Cabrera may be pricing himself out of Florida. It's a good idea to have a backup plan in case that happens.

Wise is actually pitching at or above his career norms. What I don't get is that he is very good vs. lefties. That being said, why would Yost put Shouse in to face the lefty yesterday (Floyd) and then pull him to have Wise face the righty. It would have seemed better to have Wise face both batters and save Shouse. I'm currently confident with Coco, Turnbow (last year, even before the All-Star break, he looked wild, he's been much better this season), Wise and Villanueva. I'm not nearly as down on Spurling as many here seem to be. He gave up two earned runs (plus two unearned runs) in his first two innings. In May, he had a 2.93 ERA with 10K/3BB in 12 games. In looking at his splits, he is not someone you want coming in with runners already on base, as he has given up eight hits and six earned runs in the nine games he's come in with RISP. He appears to be a much better pitcher when he starts an inning, and late in close games, he hasn't given up any runs in his three appearances. Use him to start the 6th or 7th inning, and you're fine. Bring in someone else when you're in a jam. I agree that Shouse has used up just about all of the rope he's been given, as he's never been good vs. righties, and recently he hasn't been getting lefties out (4.50 ERA, 1 BB/2 K in 12 appearances in May vs. lefties). Capellan also has a short leash, as much due to his antics early this season as anything else. He should see some more action soon to either sink or swim (btw, how do you forget how to throw a 100-MPH fastball? He hasn't been injured, so I'm guessing he may have been one who "trained" with Barry Bonds and Jose Canseco) Since a lefty in the pen seems to be a big need, I'd like to see the Crew give Joe Thatcher a shot. He's a lefty reliever (wouldn't have to learn to pitch from the pen) who's got a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3 BB / 15 K in 8.2 IP at Nashville. Hard to make a decision on that few innings, but he's striking out nearly 2 out of every three batters he faces, and not walking many. As for the original question of the thread, Balfour's numbers look good as well, so I wouldn't be upset if he were called up, but I'm not down enough on Spurling to get rid of him yet. Capellan seems to have been brought up because he can pitch multiple innings, I see that Balfour has 15 IP in 11 games. Is he seen as a muliple innings guy? My guess is that Capellan stays in the Majors until Dessens is back. If he can't prove he's better than Spurling by that point, he'll get sent down and Dessens will resume the "long man" role.

futurebrewerfather, Estrada will be in his final arby year next year, while Miller will be gone after this season. So, my question would be, who will be Estrada's backup next season: Lou, Angel or Rivera? I would think a good scenario will be for Lou to be up next season as Estrada's backup, with Angel starting AAA. Estrada could be traded, re-signed, or left to walk as a Type A free agent depending on the progression of Lou and Angel. I guess the best case scenario would be for Lou and Angel to play well enough that the Brewers can let Estrada walk as FA after next season, netting them some good draft picks, with the catcher spot locked up between Lou & Angel for the next six years. Off-topic: I checked on Estrada by looking at Brewerfan's salaries page. If you haven't looked at it in a while, you may want to check it out... it's very nice to see all of our young talent tied up for a looong time.

The paper today said that Yost plans to play Hart more, now that he is completely healthy. The wrist kept him out of the lineup for most of the past month. Even though I like Gwynn, I'm glad to see this is the reason Hart has been sitting, as I feel he's the better player of the two. Interesting that for the second day in a row the #2 batter attempts a sac bunt after the leadoff man gets on. Who is this Atlanta coach that plays small ball? Doesn't he know that you can't win by playing small ball? I bet this guy won't have much of a career as a manager.

So, now that Braun's back in the lineup, did his trip to the DL in any way push back his call up to the bigs? I assume the schedule was to call him up whenever the "super 2" deadline is, which I've heard is around June 1-8. Judging by the fact that he went 2-for-3 with a double, it seems he's okay. Does anyone who's more in-the-know see any reason he couldn't be with the Brewers by early-to-mid June?

Nix is a throw in to a trade for a team that needs healthy bodies to finish out the season. Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce your 2006 Brewers. I agree with JoeHova. There is no reason to trade Gwynn or Gross to bring up Nix. Both Gwynn and Gross are helping the Brewers right now. I guess I don't see the current bullpen to be as big an issue as some. Dessens is the long man. In Yost's system, this is best filled with a veteran who can eat up innings and who you don't mind sitting on the bench for three weeks and then throwing out there three nights in a row. Dessens fills this role perfectly. Spurling (the other whipping boy) is the 6th option out of the pen behind Coco, Turnbow, Wise, Carlos V and Shouse, and he's actually not been that bad since his first few outings. I don't see any reason to trade Gross or Gwynn to replace the 6th man out of the pen at this point. They're more valueable than the reliever would be. Nix would not get as much in a trade because he is not as good a player. The reliever Joe is talking about is probably the best you'll get from Nix at this point. Would it be worth the trade? It depends on your needs. If you can get someone younger, that may help as they wouldn't need to be added to the 40-man. However, you probably won't find someone who will help Milwaukee win games this year.

My wife and I are going to tonight's Beloit Snappers game. Since they're no longer a Brewers affiliate, I don't keep a close eye on them anymore. I was wondering if anyone here still follows them and could let me know who their top players are.

Just saw on Brewers site that Bibbs was released. He would've missed the entire season due to an offseason injury.

Since we've hit on just about every "Stats vs. Scouts" hotbutton in this thread already, I'll add one more: To the poster who said St. Louis won the series without having base stealers, I'll say that they countered that with LaRussa's penchant for bunting successfully and making "productive outs."

I agree with MNBrew that Jenkins is gone. Last season ended with his tearful goodbye. He's given Brewer fans a lot, and will probably still be a useful player, but everything I've seen points to Jenkins playing elsewhere in 2007. I project an OF of Hall, Hart and a Gross/Mench platoon, with Brady as 5th OF/PH/defensive replacement. Although we should get decent production from that group, if we're in the playoff hunt, we'll probably make the "Hot stove" lists as suitors for an OF in the last year of his contract. The IF is set with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Koskie (sounds like he'll be healthy... at least I hope), Estrada. Counsell backup SS/2B, Graffy backup 3B/2B. Miller is b/u cather, but I still think he could be traded. Hopefully one won't be needed much, but who is the backup 1B? I'd guess Graffanino. I've always thought Hart would fill this, but it hasn't happened so far. The starting rotation should be Sheets, Capuano, Suppan, Bush, Vargas with Carlos V in AAA to start the season, getting called up when one of the starters goes down. It'll happen, so we might as well prepare ourselves for it. Someone from the pen needs to be traded to make room for Sarfate, and an earlier poster menioned that Hendrickson is out of options, so I could see him either traded or used as the long man to start the season (Yost only uses the long man about once a month when his starters are healthy, and that's when the starter gives up about seven runs in two innings, so I don't want to see Carlos V or Vargas in this role). I also believe Vargas has much more worth (either as a player or as trade bait) as a starter than he does out of the pen. That leaves Jenkins, one of the backup catchers (I'm still leaning towards Miller) and at least one person from the bullpen (Turnbow's probably the one being "shopped" the most) as the most-likely-to-be-traded players on the current roster. As has been mentioned by others, I'd shoot for prospects and/or a potential quantity-for-quality bullpen arm in return. I'd love to see Melvin pull another Carlos Lee out of his hat, but I don't think even Melvin is good enough to pull off another trade like that again.

Just about everything that could be discussed here has been gone over, so I'd just like to add a couple of things: 1) If Sheets continues to get injured, he seems to be the type that wood sign a Kerry Wood type of deal. He seems to be the type that would feel that he disappointed the Brewers by not living up to the deal, and would do a one-year deal at a discount. He absolutely does not seem like the type that would complain that someone else has a better contract. 2) Players don't seem to want to do "declining salary" contracts, unless you count a signing bonus. Has anyone in history ever singed a deal that pays them less salary each year? I'd think the more likely case would be to sign him to something like a 4-year $30MM ($6MM in 2007, 7MM in 2008, 8MM in 2009, 9MM in 2010) or so yearly salary with a huge signing bonus ($10MM or so to get it to a $40MM total). If the Brewers do have excess cash this season due to all the pre-arby players, they may be able to do something like this, while keeping room in their future budgets for the escalation of the young players' salaries. This would also help them to trade him in a few years (if they should choose), as a $17MM two-year deal will probably be very low for a veteran starter in 2008. While salary and worrying about the future ability to sign Weeks, Fielder, etc do concern me, I feel that Suppan would help the Brewers compete over the next few seasons, and therefore would like to see him sign with the Brewers. I trust that Melvin and Mark A have a better grasp on managing a team for the present and the future than some of the past GMs and Selig had, so I don't think Suppan's signing would come at the expense of today's pre-arby players.

John, I agree with you in theory, but not necessarily in practice (in this case). I do agree that Carlos V has proven that he should get a legitimate shot at the rotation, and I agree that rookie pitchers shouldn't be discounted simply because they're rookies. However, if we don't get more depth, we will be counting on exactly the same rookie pitchers (other than Carlos) that disappointed us last year. They may be ready at some point this season, but I doubt that the extra month of AAA they got after getting shelled in the majors was enough to make them ready. The other "security blanket for when Sheets goes down" is Yo, who, as has been mentioned, is not yet 21 and hasn't been above A ball for too many innings. I think they need to add one more major-league-caliber starter. If he is better than Vargas or Carlos V, then either Vargas becomes long man or Carlos starts at AAA. If he's not quite as good as those two, he becomes long man, and our insurance policy when one of the starters goes down. I don't know if Lieber's the guy. He should be at least an average #4 or 5 starter, and Brett had a great statement that being average is seriously underrated. It would give us flexibilty in the rotation, and insurance for injuries. He also would be off the books when the big pay raises kick in for other key members of the team. At that time, the aforementioned minor league pitchers would be ready to step in. In other words, he would make a nice stopgap that could possibly be flipped later in the season if one of the minor leaguers makes him unnecessary or let go after the season. Our outfield is obviously overly crowded, so Mench is at this point a spare part, and I'd rather see them get something for him than simply let him go (or have we already offered arby?). Turnbow was excellent at times, but when he got bad, he single-handidly lost the Brewers about eight games after the All-Star Break. If the Win Shares guys are right, we'd probably need to replace our CFers with Beltran to make up eight games. That said, I won't be sad to see him go. Therefore, they're definitely two of the "chips" Melvin has to work with. If Lieber is the best return he can get, then I'm fine with that. I'll trust that if he finds better/younger/cheaper, he'll do it.

TLB, you could be right, but in the blurb I read, Ramirez said (A) He'd like to stay in Chicago (B) He doesn't know what he's asking for, but it'll be over the $11MM he was due to get. It doesn't sound like he's "playing hardball" (pardon the pun), but rather that he (rightly) figures that he's worth more on the open market than the $11MM he would have received over each of the next two seasons. My guess on (A) is that he wants to keep them in the negotiations and doesn't want to alienate the fans. If the Brewers front office felt that they could afford $12MM/year over the next four for Lee, is there any more wiggle room, and would $14-15MM per year net them Ramirez. The next thing to look at is would the $14-15MM/year cause them to lose any of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hall, Hart, Capuano, Sheets, etc during the term of that contract, and would it be worth it? There's a lot of "ifs" in there, but I think it's worth pursuing. The fact that the Yankees (ARod), Red Sox (Lowell) Cardinals (Rolen) and others probably won't be in the bidding could cause him to fall to a level lower then what Soriano and Lee will eventually sign for, so I hope Melvin at least gives his agent a call and gets in the race.