monty57

Ridiculous trade offers I thought the Dunn for Wise and Gwynn offer was pretty ridiculous, but I hoped it was true. I think it's funny people would be asking about players like Prince for a minor leaguer, because of all of the arby time our young kids have left. It's not even comparable to Sexson, because we had to trade him (or spend money, which wasn't going to happen). Geno, you're probably right about the 212 thing, but I've seen posters here say we should we should contact NY about Hughes, so it goes both ways http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I really think our 'veteran LF for one year' is Jenkins. I think the team will decline his option, then negotiate a one to two year deal at less $. If that can't get done, then he'll be gone. I agree he's one of our best options next season, and I think it's likely he'll be in Milwaukee, barring a catastrophic meltdown for the remainder of the season. I think he'll have at least one more hot month and end up somewhere around an .800 OPS as long as he doesn't face many lefties. The question was raised earlier and I'm not sure of the answer. If they decline the option, can they negotiate with him as a free agent, or is there a period where they are "out of the running?" Moneyballman, I like the Klesko idea if he can still play LF. He's got a .368 OBP / .438 Slg in San Fran (not really a hitter's paradise). He's got an .802 OPS vs. righties (191 AB) and an .832 OPS vs. lefties (only 35 ABs). Three year splits, he's got .815 overall OPS, .846 vs. righties, .721 vs. lefties. We'd probably still want to platoon him, but if he can play a reasonable defense in LF, he'd cost about $7MM less than Jenkins ($6.5MM after Jankins' buyout), and being 36 he may sign a one or two year deal. If they could work out a two-year / $3.5MM deal (assuming he can still play LF), I'd do that, forego the option on Jenkins and see if there was any way we could then afford Coco. I guess first I'd see if anyone would trade for Jenkins. When do the Brewers have to decide on the option, and is it "legal" to pick up the option and then immediately trade the player?

Jenks and Mench should be higher than a lot of LFers as they are being batting against pitchers they should hit. Does not suprise me one bit he is at 13 in rankings. Now let him play against lefties and that number will start to drop That's exactly what I was alluding to when I mentioned OPS is a skewed stat, but I didn't want to upset anyone and cause the thread to go into a discussion about the validity of OPS. Geno's had some great posts about this in other threads. I'm not interested in anyone being paid more than $5 million to be average. We can find average with someone still in arby years via trade or try Gross, Gwynn or Nix for a year. But it's really not that easy. The only above average players on the list that are pre-arby are Chris Duncan and Josh Willingham, and neither of those two are going anywhere. The rest of the above average list consists of Manny Ramirez ($17MM), Barry Bonds ($15.5MM), Holliday ($4.4MM final arby year), Soriano ($10MM first year of riduculous deal), Lee ($11.5MM first year of riduculous deal), Dunn ($10.5MM free agent or $13MM option), Matsui ($13MM), Gonzalez ($7.2MM), Burrell ($13.25MM) and Byrnes ($4.575MM free agent after season). The below average list goes down pretty quickly, with Ryan Church (#15) at .761, Reggie Willits (#16) at .754, Jason Bay (#17) at .735, Raul Ibanez (#18) at .701 and Craig Monroe (#19) at .667. This really makes me believe that a season of Mench / Gross could land us square in the middle of mediocrity. Lee and Soriano proved last season that to get an even slightly above average left fielder (#'s 8 & 9 OPS LF respectively), you're going to have to mortgage your future. I mentioned earlier that Gross would be an option as part of a platoon, but I think he'll be a step down from Jenkins both offensively and defensively. If that means we use the money to upgrade elsewhere, that may be a good option, but downgrading talent simply to cut costs is hopefully what we got out of when the Seligs sold the team. As I said earlier, I would love to ditch both Jenkins and Mench after the season if it meant getting Holliday or Dunn on the free agent market, and $13-14MM is probably around what they're going to cost. However, they will need to be singed to a multi-year deal, which may mean not signing other members of the team long term. Seeing Jenkins and a righty platoon next season until LaPorte is ready, hopefully by 2009 could be a good way to go. If LaPorte isn't ready by 2009, then we'd be stuck, but he will be 24, and his hitting doesn't seem to be a problem. I'd think he'd be able to learn how to play LF in a season and a half. He'd have to be able to beat Craig Monroe's .667 wouldn't hehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

It may be easier said than done finding a replacement LF for less $ in the .850-.900 OPS range (even just against righties). Of all Major League OF (not just LF) that qualify with enough ABs (ESPN didn't give a number that qualifies), there are currently 20 with an .850+ OPS, including 13 at .900+. There are only 9 LF at .850+ OPS (4 of them .900+). Griffey, Byrnes, Dunn, Holliday and Rowand all fall into the .850+ category this season, and are, to one degree or other, on the market. Griffey, Holliday and Dunn are elite players, and I'd love to have any of them (although Griffey's injury history necessitates a strong back-up plan). Byrnes is a career .784 OPS player having a great year. Rowand is a career .800 OPS guy (.005 points higher than Jenkins' current OPS and .050 lower than Jenkins' career). There are 32 OF with .800+ OPS, or basically one per team. Jenkins just misses the "qualifying" cut, as Hall has enough ABs at 288, but Jenkins doesn't at 254. If he qualified, he would be #33 in OPS amongst all OFs (#13 amongst LF) with an OPS of .795, falling between Nick Markakis and Carl Crawford. Jenkins has always been extremely streaky, so it doesn't surprise me at all that he looks bad right now. Sometimes (like now), he's very frustrating to watch. Sometimes, he's phenominal. Put the highs and the lows together, and you get an average. Now, I understand that OPS is a skewed stat that makes platoon players look better than they actually are, but since OPS is seen by many posters here as a good way to judge a player's offensive ability, I'll use it. There are 30 teams in the majors, and based on OPS, Jenkins is the 13th best offensive LF in the Majors, making him above average offensively for his position. If we're going to complain, we should be dogging Mench and his .757 OPS against mainly left-handed pitching. A combo of Jenkins platooned with a minimum wage righty who can put up decent numbers vs. lefties equates to someone making $9.4MM with, say a combined .785 OPS, which puts that platoon at roughly the quivalent of a Carl Crawford or Bill Hall. I would love to see them drop Jenkins and Mench if it means picking up Dunn of Holliday. Of course that would also assume that this move wouldn't keep them from re-signing everyone else on the team in years down the road. However, if that's not possible, I have no problem with keeping Jenkins one more season and then letting his salary drop off the books in time for us to re-sign Sheets or offer a long-term deal to Fielder. Finally, I suggested LaPorta in 2009 because that is what the Brewers brass were hinting at when he was drafted. He's almost as old as Fielder and Braun, so it sounded like they want to fast track him. Plans sometimes play out the way you'd like and sometimes don't. I'd gladly change the plans for a Holliday or Dunn. I'd be less willing to make a move for someone like Byrnes who will probably cost as much or more than Jenkins next year, with similar numbers (albeit someone who can play everyday), and will potentially keep us from re-signing some players that are much more valuable to the continued success of the team.

If Jenkins is gone after this season, who will be our LF next year? Right now, the Jenkins/Mench platoon has put up passable numbers. If Jenkins plays out this season and the Brewers don't pick up his option, we will have a Gross/Mench platoon next season. I've never been nearly as down on Gross as some on this board, but it appears likely that Jenkins could outperform Gross next season. The way I see it, LaPorta is our LF of the future, starting in 2009. It's possible, but I doubt they bring him up as a starter out of Spring Training next season. Therefore, we'll have a one-season gap where we need a LF, and I would think it'd be hard to find a free agent to sign for one year. The big problem is that we should be going into next year with visions of the World Series on our minds. LF is an offensive position, and Gross/Mench could very easily bomb. To me, it comes down to these options for LF: 1) Jenkins / Mench 2) Gross / Mench 3) LaPorta a year earlier than expected 4) Veteran FA who will either sign a one-year deal or agree to start one year and then sit behind LaPorta for the rest of the contract 5) Gwynn in center, Hall in left 6) Make a trade now or in the offseason that brings in a LF that will be here next year If we can pull off a trade, I'm all for it. If not, I think that we'll see a Jenkins / Mench platoon for one more year.

I'm sure I'm wrong on the rules, but I thought that since he had been in the minors this season, the Brewers could send him back to the minors without him going through waivers. He is a good arm to give up on, but as has been said, he's losing games for us now, and therefore probably shouldn't be on the roster, as we have other options we can try. All told, the Brewers have been pretty lucky that (barring injuries) everyone they've brought up from the minors recently has played to the top of their abilities. We were probably due for a player to come up and seriously underperform.

I agree, Patrick. Whether the Brewers win or lose really has very little impact on my everyday life. Should I be sick of the nonsense of being "up" when they win and "down" when they lose? When confronted with someone chasing an All-time record, Bonds is not just being compared with his contemporaries in the "steroid era," but being compared with everyone who has ever donned a uniform. If he had never touched steroids, he would probably have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. However (and I'm in the Costas "I haven't lived in a cave" camp), by taking steroids, he is surpassing some of the greatest players ever (Aaron, Ruth, Mays) who did it with pure ability. It's like giving someone a bicycle to "run" a marathon, it's just not fair. The other side of the whole steroids thing has also been brought up. There will never be a conclusive study on how harmful steroids are to the human body, as no one is ever going to admit to using them, but the number of athletes who are passing away at alarmingly early ages is striking. While I understand the reason people take them (money and fame), it's a shame that people will adversely affect their health and quite possibly lose 30-40 years of life simply to be a better athlete.

I agree that he's best used as a DH. However, I like Brett's idea of having him as a RH pinch hitter and emergency catcher. I just don't know how much you'd pay for that, either in terms of salary or players given up in trade.

I think the Diamondbacks are likely to trade Byrnes for the reasons previously stated. They're falling in the division, have good young outfielders and are likely to lose Byrnes after this season. He's therefore their best "trading chip." That said, while I'd like to have him, I don't know that he'd be that big an upgrade over the Mench / Jenkins combo to warrant giving up much for him, and I don't see the Diamondbacks wanting either Mench or Jenkins back in return, as they'd probably be looking for pre-abry talent. Also, if we were able to swing a deal for Byrnes and then moved Jenkins for relief help, which would seem the logical thing to do, what would we do for a LF next season? It seems LaPorta is planned to our starting LF in 2009, so we'd have a one-season gap without anyone. We likely wouldn't be able to sign a free agent for one season, so it would seem that we'd have some form of a Mench / Gwynn / Gross combo playing everyday along with Hall and Hart. In that scenario, I'd rather see us hang onto Jenkins and have the same OF next year as we have this year, with LaPorta taking over when Jenkins and Mench are gone in 2009. I guess the big question is whether anyone still feels Gross can equal Jenkins as the LH part of a platoon.

In ESPN's defense, there are only so many hours in a day to watch baseball, and they have to take up nine of them watching every single Yankees, Red Sox and Mets game, so there's not much time left for the rest of the league.

With Sheets out for a month or two, I don't see any way we trade any of our starters during the season. I would imagine that Capuano, Vargas, Bush and Suppan will be marketed pretty heavily during the offseason, as Villy and Yo should be in the starting rotation next year. Due to contract status and the fact that they're proven Major League pitchers, any one of these four should bring in a lot in trade. I agree with Al's earlier comment that we need the depth this year, especially considering the innings limitation on Yo. However, without any trades, next year we'll have an even bigger logjam, with the current seven plus more minor leaguers knocking on the door.

Doesn't it take more than a year for a pitcher to get back to normal from this surgery? I seem to remember hearing that pitcher's usually aren't fully healthy / able to throw 100% until year two after the surgery. If the Cardinals do have a fire sale, who would they have to sell? Pujols isn't going anywhere. Is there a possibility that Edmonds or Rolen gets traded?

I've got friends and family coming in from all over the state, so I hope they can't make a last minute move, or I'll be stuck with six unused tickets.

what "kind of stuff" was he talking about? Read the Dunn thread in the Trade Forum for the whole picture, but basically there was a rumor of a trade of Dunn for Gwynn, Wise and a minor leaguer that started on a Cincy radio station and was discussed here. When interviewed and asked about the trade before the game, Melvin made the above-stated comment.

Maybe other teams' GMs have read some of the posts on brewerfan.net and believe that Matt Wise is made of glass, so Melvin asked Yost to throw him out there for three innings to prove that this wasn't true. It is odd that they'd basically waste him for the next few days in a blowout game like this. If they weren't trying to showcase him, today would seem to have been a good game to get Parra a couple of innings.

The Marlins seem to have a very good eye for evaluating young talent in trades... it's been a big part of what's won them two World Series titles. They were able to get Hanley Ramirez (the guy who beat out Prince for Rookie of the Year) and others for Beckett, so I'd guess we'd have to start with the likes of Braun or Yo if we wanted to talk about trading for Cabrera. Remember, this guy is 24 with a career OPS of .942 (.387/.545), 126 career HRs all while playing in a non-hitter friendly park. He's as young as the Brewers' infielders, only he's got 654+ games under his belt where he's played at an elite level that most All-Stars in their prime dream about.

I love it!!!! I've been asking for this for a long time, and I assumed we'd have to give up more than this. We get Dunn to shore up our offense and make the playoffs this season. If he doesn't re-sign, then we get a first and supplemental pick next year (or likely 2nd, since the Reds will be in the top half). These picks will have a chance to become Brewers in 5-6 years, whereas the infielders in question will be blocked behind Hardy, Weeks and Braun for their careers. The only problem I see is who plays LF next season if Jenkins is traded and Dunn doesn't re-up? I feel that comparing Dunn to Branyan is like comparing Tony Gwynn Jr to Sr, as they're both the same type of player. However, one of them was a phenominal outfielder who's going to the HOF, and the other may be good enough someday to start for a major league team. Dunn and Branyan are the same "type" of player, but there is no comparison in ability. Dunn hits 40+ HR nearly every year, and not many players can do that. As far as Jenkins' value in trade, he has a team option next year, at what now seems to be a reasonable salary (after the free spending last offseason), so his value is elevated for teams looking at next year. With the year he's having, he'd start on a lot of teams, so we should be able to get a decent player back, especially if we're willing to eat some salary. He's not a player that needs to be replaced, but if we can get Dunn in the trade being reported, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'm fine with keeping Mench around as long as he's used solely as a spot-starter/PH against lefties, who he's destroying this season.

Good post TooLiveBrew. Everybody gets banged up throughout the season, so Hardy could be nursing a small injury, but it's also likely that Hardy's going through one of the "down cycles" of a long season. He does seem to always take the first pitch, but he's always done that... perhaps the pitchers have caught on, leading him to be down 0-1 more often than he's up 1-0. Not to hijack the thread, but since Graffy to LF was brought up, I would think the "stat guys" would be praising Yost for this move. With Hall out, the Brewers only have two OFs that can hit lefties. Graffy's a solid (not showy) fielder who could probably play any position on the field at least reasonably well, and he's been hot of late, so why not let Rickie play against a lefty, who he normally hits well against, and give Graffy one shot in LF before Hall gets back and things are back to normal.

I think you're onto something jjgott. I think Hall's able to come off the DL next Tuesday (?) and from his warmups he looks like he could play right now. Your idea makes more sense than bringing up Rottino for a week.

If the wrist is hurting, and he's going to be benched anyways, I don't see any reason not to put him on the DL and just let him rest the wrist until it's fully healed. If he is healthy (which I can't believe is the case while watching his swing), I'm torn as to whether I'd like him on the bench or in AAA. It may well be better for his progression to have him play everyday at AAA until he "gets it together." However, in a "put the best team on the field" playoff midset, I still find it hard to believe that the best team consists of Rottino over a healthy Weeks. Therefore, if he is healthy, I guess I'd rather see him stay with the Brewers and work it out. I'm no doctor, and this is speculation, but it seems to me that playing is hurting his wrist. We have Graffy and Counsell this year. Next year, we won't have Graffy. While we need to keep the playoffs in the picture this season, we also need to have a 100% healthy Weeks next year. If playing is hurting his wrist, I think he should sit until it is no longer hurting his wrist. If that means he gets DL'd and Graffy/Counsell play 2B for a month, or even the rest of this season, then I'm all for it. As for who would take his spot, I'd bet on Rottino. That would allow for us to have the extra backup infielder, while also allowing Ned to use Miller or Estrada as a pinch hitter when they're not starting. Rottino could then be the backup catcher should the starter get hurt.

Yeah, I'd assume Cappy would be the least likely to be traded. My statment of "would it be enough return for the Brewers to get Cordero" is poorly written, and should have read "would the Brewers be giving up too much if all they got back is Cordero?" I see Cordero as a dominant reliever who could help our bullpen this year and be our closer for the next few years at a much cheaper price than Coco. I also believe that Villeneuva is better than Vargas and probably better than Bush. If we could get C. Cordero for Bush or Vargas straight up, we would be able to insert Villy into the starting lineup (he needs more innings this year, while Yo needs to be limited somewhat) which would make our starting lineup even better, while allowing us to have Turnbow/C. Cordero as 7th/8th inning setup men with Coco as the closer. The biggest problem I'd see would be depleting the starting ranks in case of injury, although we'd still be covered with Gallardo and the guys at AAA. However, if Melvin's been shopping Bush (Bush for Saltalamacchia thread) and the story that's come out is Gwynn for Otsuka, you'd have to imagine that he's made a phone call to Washington, and they're looking for more in return than Bush or Vargas. To me, Vargas or Bush + a good prospect is probably too much to give up for C. Cordero. Note: typing this is more complicated than it should be, since we're dicussing two Carlos V's and two Cordero's.

The Brewers have several starters (Vargas, Bush and Cappy), who could be dealt due to the presence of Yo and Villy. They're all proven major leaguers who still have arbitration years remaining, and the Nationals will be looking for young players and those that will be "under their control" for a while. Would the Nationals bite on a deal that included one of these pitchers, and would it be enough return for the Brewers to get Cordero?

I've never seen an overabundance of attendees at Snappers games, which is why they've been calling for a new park closer to I-90, which in turn (in failing to get the new park) is why the Brewers now reside in a different location. That being said, it wouldn't overly surprise me to see some of the bobbleheads go unclaimed. I'd hate to be the reason you didn't get a bobblehead, so I don't want to mislead you, but I'd assume that if you got there an hour ahead of the game you wouldn't have any problem being one of the first 500. I would suggest that you call the ticket office and see if there are any picnics going on that day. If one or two area companies are having picnics on the beer deck, that could cause a couple hundred people to get there early, as the picnics start well ahead of the game (they wouldn't be standing in line, they'd already be in the park).

Having depth during the playoff stretch could be what gets us into the playoffs. If/when one of our starters goes down, either Carlos or Yo will be moved to the rotation. We will then need all of our current bullpen plus one of Thatcher, Parra or Balfour. If more than one of our pitchers go down over the same period (which is fairly likely over half a season), we will need two of the above. With that in mind, if the Brewers braintrust feels that 2 or 3 of the above players are better options than Spurling, what do you think we could get for Spurling in a trade? We managed to get what looks to be a pretty good young arm for Capellan. Would we be able to net anything of value (maybe a high-risk/high-reward player) for Spurling?

I don't see them getting traded, as our biggest need is in the bullpen: -Cordero is very likely not going to be signed this offseason, so he'll test the free agent market, netting us some draft picks that won't help us at the Major League level for several seasons. -Spurling is teetering on being replaced this season. He's making $975k, and will be a free agent at season's end, so I'd have to believe he won't be back next year. -Shouse has a year of arby left, but he will be 39 (I believe) and may not be re-upped if we have younger, cheaper, better options. He's making $1MM this season, so he'd probably make more next year. I'd rather see Parra at league minimum. -Dessens likely won't see another game in a Brewers uniform, and even if he's not let go this season, he's gone next year. -Carlos V. and Yo Gallardo should not be in the bullpen next season, which means that either Bush and Vargas are getting demoted to the pen or there will be some trades. -Finally, there will be some injuries in the second half of the season where we will need them. Therefore, I see them coming up this season to cover injuries and possibly to replace Spurling. Next season and beyond, they will play vital roles in the bullpen for a low cost, allowing us to retain some players at other positions.