monty57

There have also been a lot of rumors that the Yankees are targeting Sabathia and Teixeira this offseason, meaning that Tex's team is likely to get a 2nd rounder for him rather than a 1st rounder, as the Brewers are likely to get the Yankees' 1st rounder. Of course, there is now a good chance that the Angels lock him up before the end of the season.

Thursday, Section 125 row 6 seats 1-4. Great seats, but I get the pitching matchup that most favors the Cubs (Harden vs. Bush)

Just pure observational speculation, but Prince seems to hate seeing Ryan Braun taking over this team. Not that he hates Ryan Braun, but he wants so badly to be the guy, and be in the spotlight. I specifically say this because of how he approaches AB's after a Braun HR. He's up there just swinging as hard as he can trying to match it. If he really is that upset about not being the #1 guy, how would he ever expect to play in a bigger market. Does he think he'd be the #1 guy on the Yankees? I gotta think we are at the point where this season is going to affect Prince's arbitration number. He is on pace to hit .270 with 30 homers and 90 rbi, certainly a "good" season, but not extraordinary for a cleanup hitter. I have to think unless he catches fire for the last two months, he has cost himself some serious scratch this season. I have to agree with this. I think after last season he figured he'd get Howard's $10MM in his first arby year. After this good-but-not-great season, I don't think that's going to happen. This is more reason for young players to try to sign the long-term deal when they can. If Prince truly is having an off year due to his concern about what he's making, how will he feel when he's making half of what he expected next season? All that being said, Ennder is probably right. He got off to a slow start this season and that will depress his stats for a good portion of the season. If he keeps up his current pace, his numbers should be alright at the end of the season. Maybe not what people expected after last season, but still good numbers.

Yesterday's game was the first game I've turned off early in years. Not because of how Suppan pitched, but because Yost refused to put McClung in for him. I hate the "5th starter platoon" and if Yost is afraid to pitch McClung for 4-5 innings around when he should normally start the game, then I hate it even more. That said, using Suppan's past month or so isn't really a good way to judge him. He was obviously hurt, and I believe that Melvin / Yost asked Suppan to start games even though he was injured because they knew CC would be on board soon. I think you have to take the 2-3 games prior to the DL stint out of the equation, as it has to be pretty hard to pitch with a sore right elbow. Not that using 1/3 of a season to judge a player is good in any case. Russ, I too remember the many threads at the time of Suppan's signing. Most posters who disliked the signing mentioned that Suppan's contract would be a big reason we wouldn't be able to afford to re-sign Sheets. I'd have to say at this time that it looks like those posters are correct.

TWR, I wasn't listening really attentively, but I think that's pretty much in line with what Melvin said on 620 this morning. Therefore, Riske had better be at the top of his game for the rest of the season. As far as Mota, I have a bad feeling that they want to get to the Sept call ups with him before bringing up Stetter/Dillard/DiFilice who could all outpitch him at this point. Maybe it's just so no other contending team picks him up, although I think that would be a blessing at this point.

If Cappy wants to be in Milwaukee next year, he probably can be, but it's not likely they'll offer him arbitration, as they'd have to pay him several million to rehab and play in AAA. It's more likely they'll pass on arby, making Cappy a free agent. I wouldn't mind seeing them sign him to a minor league contract in hopes that he makes it back from the surgery.

And doesn't that make the most sense? That Ray Durham today is somewhere between how bad he was last year and how good he's been so far this year? Possibly, but not necessarily. Here's Durham's career: SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS 1995 CWS 125 471 68 121 27 6 7 51 31 83 18 5 .257 .309 .384 .693 1996 CWS 156 557 79 153 33 5 10 65 58 95 30 4 .275 .350 .406 .756 1997 CWS 155 634 106 172 27 5 11 53 61 96 33 16 .271 .337 .382 .719 1998 CWS 158 635 126 181 35 8 19 67 73 105 36 9 .285 .363 .455 .818 1999 CWS 153 612 109 181 30 8 13 60 73 105 34 11 .296 .373 .435 .808 2000 CWS 151 614 121 172 35 9 17 75 75 105 25 13 .280 .361 .450 .811 2001 CWS 152 611 104 163 42 10 20 65 64 110 23 10 .267 .337 .466 .803 2002 CWS 96 345 71 103 20 2 9 48 49 59 20 5 .299 .390 .446 .836 2002 Oak 54 219 43 60 14 4 6 22 24 34 6 2 .274 .350 .457 .807 2003 SF 110 410 61 117 30 5 8 33 50 82 7 7 .285 .366 .441 .807 2004 SF 120 471 95 133 28 8 17 65 57 60 10 4 .282 .364 .484 .848 2005 SF 142 497 67 144 33 0 12 62 48 59 6 3 .290 .356 .429 .785 2006 SF 137 498 79 146 30 7 26 93 51 61 7 2 .293 .360 .538 .898 2007 SF 138 464 56 101 21 2 11 71 53 75 10 2 .218 .295 .343 .638 2008 SF 87 263 43 77 23 0 3 32 38 49 6 2 .293 .385 .414 .799 As you can see, his OPS throughout his career has hovered slightly over .800. The one anomoly has been last year's .638. I understand that players lose it with age, but the real outlier could be the .638 season. I don't know what happened that year. It could've been a lot of things. However, I don't see this year's .799 as unsustainable do to Durham's history. In fact, his HR rate is almost at an unsustainable low compared to what he's done over the past few seasons, so it's entirely possible that his numbers could go up from here. However the projections were figured, it just seems their really not giving much of a chance for Durham to be good at all. The only reasons I can think of are age and one year (last year). On the other hand, Weeks' projections must have been high based on his age and his season last year, which would have been a normal year for Durham in his career. Those are significant factors, but it is entirely in the realm of possibility that Durham can outplay Weeks for the next two months.

except if you only care about this year's hitting stats. If that's how you like to project performance... Over and over again, we hear the "small sample size" arguement. So now there's a way to project how someone will perform over a small sample size... interesting. I agree that Weeks should (or maybe I should say was projected to) do better than he has. The problem is that he's been given every opportunity to get better, and now we're about 100 games into the season and he has been horrible. Maybe I'm off, but I would guess your "scientific" method of determining how a player will perform in a small sample size assumes some sort of pre-season standard deviation for that player and then regresses/progresses that player's YTD stats to reach the assumed standard deviation. The problem is that Weeks is so far off of any assumption anyone would have given him to start the season that he will have to perform well above average simply to reach to lower reaches of his bell curve. In other words, he'll have to play very well simply to have a bad season relative to what was expected of him. Conversely, since Durham has played well after a poor season last year, it is natural that such a projection would assume that Durham would have to fall off significantly over the final 60 or so games to regress to him assumed standard deviation. Actually, he's not too far over his career .787 OPS (which is low due to his poor seasons when he was in his early 20's), but last year would really have screwed up any SABR projections for him. Now, it is entirely possible that you are correct. However, trying to act like you have some sort of crystal ball and can project what any player is going to do over 200 or so at bats is a stretch. Also, disregarding year-to-date performance as a fluke and stating that he'll play poorly the rest of the way out because he had a bad season last year probably isn't the best way to predict. Simply put, Durham has played well this season despite his age and the fact that people thought he would have a bad season. Weeks has played poorly this season despite the fact that he was drafted #2 overall and should be getting better every year. I hope that Weeks can "find it" and start hitting better, but there has really been no sign of that happening.

It also depends on what you think you've got in Weeks. As of right now, he's a .689 OPS / .322 OBP below-average defensive 2B. Based on that, almost anyone would be an improvement for the team. It is entirely possible that Weeks rebounds and outplays Durham for the rest of the season. To this point, which is nearly 100 games into the season, Durham's .799 OPS / .385 OBP would be very welcome. With Weeks being a below average defender, Durham would have to be very bad defensively (considering the offense remains the same) in order for him not to be an improvement over Weeks this season. Ellis .237 avg / .332 OBP / .393 SLG / .718 OPS (career OPS .748)Grudzilanek .308 avg / .359 OBP / .408 SLG / .766 OPS (career OPS .728) I don't really see why either of these guys would be significantly better acquisitions than Durham. Even if they are better, it is likely that Melvin has approached Oakland and KC and they wanted significantly more than Melvin was willing to give up. I'm not gaga over the Durham trade, but it will likely improve the team this season, and heck, one extra win could be the difference in our making the playoffs or not.

One thing that I think gets forgotten when ruminating about a platoon is that most players are better when they get consistent playing time. It's unlikely that Durham will keep up his pace vs. Righties or that Weeks will keep up his pace vs. lefties if they are on a strict platoon. This is particularly true of the RH bat, who sits 70-80% of the time. I'm probably with the small group of posters who feel that the best move may be to send Rickie to AAA for a while (maybe even until Sept call-ups). Durham would be our new leadoff hitter and Counsell can be a defensive replacement if Durham's defense is indeed as bad as some are making it out to be. This raises the OBP in the leadoff spot considerably and gives us another LH bat vs. righties, and it keeps Weeks playing everyday. If he starts tearing it up in AAA, then he could be recalled and Durham could go to the banch. As an off the topic bonus, if Weeks posts a 1.000 OPS in AAA, he may have more trade value in the offseason should Melvin & Co. decide to go with a Hardy / Escobar middle infield next year.

I'd have to guess that if they were to trade for Durham it would be so that they would have a leadoff hitter that could actually get on base. Therefore, Weeks would get significntly less playing time. Again, just a guess, but I would think that Weeks would either be sent back to AAA or would be involved in a trade. I do note that he isn't a high OBP guy, which Beane seems to only trade for guys that take walks. Weeks actually does walk (and get HBP) at a decent rate. His OBP is low due to an atrocious batting average. I'm not sure if I like a Durham trade or not as he doesn't really add much as a bat off the bench, and would only "add significant value" by being our nearly-everyday leadoff hitter. If it's coupled with a trade of Weeks for a stud closer we'd control for a couple of years relatively cheaply it makes more sense.

CC has been as advertised, and I'd love to see him signed, but I doubt it's going to be possible. One added benefit of him pitching well will be his ranking among free agents. I've seen some of the "talking heads" musing that the Yankees will sign Sabathia and Texiera this off-season. IIRC, the top ranked Type A FA nets his previous team the first rounder, while the lower ranked Type-A FA nets the team's second rounder. If that's the case, I'd hope CC would be the #1 FA on the market. It'd suck to get a late second rounder for him.

Mike Cameron has received a lot of flak this year from fans and the media. I think most of it comes from him being miscast as a #2 hitter earlier in the season, and people believing that just because he's a CF and doesn't look like a slugger, he should be a high-OBP guy. When you look at the stats, he's put up very similar numbers to Corey Hart. Both play good defense, Cameron has shown more power (both have 15 HR, Cameron has less AB) and has walked more, while Corey has more hits. Corey was selected as an All Star and Cameron has been ripped on. Hart: 362 AB / .287 avg / .326 OBP / .503 SLG / .829 OPS Cameron: 219 AB / .237 avg / .329 OBP / .502 SLG / .831 OPS In fact, here's the list of all MLB CFs (based on OPS) Grady Sizemore (CLE) .911 Josh Hamilton (TEX) .910 Rick Ankiel (StL) .905 Nate McClouth (PIT) .886 Curtis Granderson (DET) ..846 Carlos Beltran (NYM) .846 Mike Cameron (MIL) .832 Jayson Werth (PHI) .830 David DeJesus (KC) .829 Cody Ross (FLA) .819 Aaron Rowand (SFG) .812 Torii Hunter (LAA) .786 B.J. Upton (TAM) .778 Vernon Wells (TOR) .777 Jody Gerut (SD) .767 Jim Edmonds (CHC) .764 Ryan Sweeney (OAK) .757 Nick Swisher (CHW) .755 Shane Victorino (PHI) .749 Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) .737 I'd guess that if you asked most fans (and probably most of the media), they'd say Cameron is hitting worse than most of the names under him on the list. I just wanted to shed a little light on probably the most under-appreciated Brewer so far this year... Mike Hammerin' Cameron

If it's like the newspaper biz, the writer submits the story, and the Editor titles it, so it's likely not McCalvy's fault.

Since I don't have a login over there, I'll ask the question here: "Does this take into account the remaining schedule?" It looks like they're using home vs. away, but what seems to be more important is that the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals play against each other a lot over the remainder of the season. Two additional wins against the Cubs / Cardinals is more important than two wins against a non-playoff contender. Plus, the Cubs and Cardinals beating each other up is very important to our playoff picture. Edit: After reading the entire post, it looks like Russ beat me to that question

Since I don't have a login over there, I'll ask the question here: "Does this take into account the remaining schedule?" It looks like they're using home vs. away, but what seems to be more important is that the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals play against each other a lot over the remainder of the season. Two additional wins against the Cubs / Cardinals is more important than two wins against a non-playoff contender. Plus, the Cubs and Cardinals beating each other up is very important to our playoff picture. Edit: After reading the entire post, it looks like Russ beat me to that question

Are we sure it isn't Dunn for Wise? I hear a Cincinnati radio station says that deal's a lock.

As of right now, next year's rotation is Yo, Parra, Suppan, McClung & Bush. In the 'pen, we've only got Torres, Riske and Stetter, with Dillard and Pena at AAA. I fully expect Melvin to do his best to make a trade this offseason to pick up a good starting pitcher, and a lot can happen between now and next season. That said, while I feel that Carlos could become a decent starting pitcher, it looks like he'll probably help the team best from the 'pen next year.

It helps when you're willing to pick up salary. Edmonds has had a very good career, so it was likely he'd still have some game left in him. The Cubs are willing to pick up the salary, and if it doesn't work out... who cares?

I don't have any links, but articles I've read throughout the year interviewing Prince and Corey have a different tone. Corey really sounds like he's excited about signing long term, while Prince pretty much avoids the conversation. I don't take it as a slap in the face that Prince decides to go year-to-year. He's taking some risk and will get a bigger payday if he continues to be healthy and productive. I'm glad they signed Braun, I hope they extend Hart, and I will understand if they trade Prince this offseason or next.

plaing in the second largest market in the country Third largest. And half of that market is filled with people who hate the Cubs and would vote for Braun just to spite them.

The only way the Brewers should trade Sheets is if they fall out of the playoff race. Three weeks ago, it looked like this may be an option. Now that they've been one of the hottest teams in baseball and have the third best record in the NL, they'd be foolish to trade Sheets, as they would basically kill their chances at the playoffs and lose a lot of fans in the process. The same could be said of trading Fielder during this season. In the offseason, I could see Fiellder dealt, but not this year. As far as Sabathia, I'd love to see him as a Brewer, as he would definitely help us make the playoffs, and would make for a formidable playoff rotation. However, it would be hard to watch LaPorta belting out 40 HR / year for the Indians long after Fielder has left as a free agent. I'll have to have faith in Melvin that he can "see the future" far better than I, and if he does land Sabathia I hope it won't hurt our future.

I'm torn on this. While I'd love to have Sabathia for the playoff run, I'd hate to give up 6 years of some very talented players for a couple months of CC. While Cleveland is playing poorly this season, they still see themselves as a contending team for next year, so I would imagine that they'd like to get some major league ready talent. As was stated by another poster, Hall and Villinueva are two pieces that have favorable contracts and wouldn't hurt too much to give up. I'd just hate to add LaPorta to that mix. Since what we're initially cometing against is the value of two draft picks, Hall and Villy may be a good starting point, and then see if we could add a good prospect that isn't a major part of our future. We could also trade away just about anyone at the lower minor league levels, as losing Sheets and Sabathia should net us an additional two #1s and two comps for next year's draft. Added to this year's selections, and we'll have a plethora of talent in Rookie and A ball. If it comes to trading LaPorta or Gamel, I think I'd rather hold onto them and trade Fielder during the offseason for a young stud pitcher that we could hold onto for a few seasons.

I agree with Splitterpfj that if Prince were to be traded, it would be for a pitcher. With Sheets likely leaving and no one lined up to take his place, I think it's important the Brewers address the rotation in the offseason. Plus, if they were to trade for Reyes, they'd need to do something with Hardy and Escobar. I wouldn't think it too likely that they'd trade for a player in a position where they already have two MLB caliber players. I really don't see Prince "pissing and moaning." He was upset that he didn't get as much as Howard, but nothing has been said since, and he seems to be having a good time in the Brewers' dugout. Also, Prince/Boras cannot ask for "a billion dollars" until he hits free agency in three years. If he asks for too much next year, the Brewers would win in arbitration, therefore paying him less than if Prince/Boras ask for a reasonable amount. I think it is possible Prince will be traded, but it would be because Prince won't sign a long term deal, and they have LaPorta & Gamel waiting in the wings, not because of Prince's attitude, which has been wonderful ever since he's signed with the Brewers.

It's unfortunate no one taught Prince about little things like paying taxes while they were teaching him to swing a bat. If he hasn't already, he should work out a payment schedule with the IRS, as he's accruing a boatload of interest, and if they really want, they could put him into jail over this. It does make me wonder about how players are viewed by teams. If they're employees of the team, the team would be responsible for withholding taxes. They're not in the union until they reach the majors, so are they technically subcontractors while they're in the minors?