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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    I doubt he'll opt out. My only thought is that if he knows he'll be the 5th OF, he'll know that while he's getting $11M to be that 5th OF, he'll never sign another big deal (he'll be 32 next year). If he still believes in himself, he'd probably rather be a starter than a bench player. If he thinks he can find a starting job somewhere, next offseason would probably be his last chance to sign a multi-year deal. It will be up to him and his agent to decide on his option, and there is a good chance that he will pick up the option and be a Brewer next year. I just think that he'd be more likely to opt out if Taylor gets ahead of him on the depth chart and he knows that he will not get much playing time than he would if he goes into the year as a starter or even a platoon player.
  2. monty57
    I remember back a couple of years when a lot of Brewer fans were giving up on Burnes. Sometimes talented players have setbacks when they hit the MLB level, and leaving them in the majors doesn't help. There's nothing wrong with sending Hiura back to the minors for as long as it takes. I believe he has this year plus two more option years that we could keep him in the minors, so there is no reason to think that he's going to be out of the organization and come back strong with another team... at least not any time soon. He's lost right now, and hopefully he will figure things out and come back as the player we all know he can be, but I don't think he's going to get straightened out in the majors. He needs an extended trip to the minors.
  3. monty57
    The affinity for Taylor is probably a byproduct of how bad the Brewers hitters are. His MLB slash line is .238/.319/.476, a rookie 27 year old corner outfielder with a sub .800 OPS is nothing to really get excited about. This is especially so when the minor league slash line is .270/.329/.415 (which suggests to me he is the exact same player he has been the last nine years in the minors but has likely bought into the launch angle craze sacrificing batting average for an increase in power). He is what he is, a reserve outfielder with a high floor and low ceiling. Right, but if that "high floor" allows the Brewers to save some money by having him put up a .750-.800 OPS with decent defense for a few years while he's cheap, they can have some money to spend on a position of need. The Brewers need to have some positions filled with average players playing for below average pay, and Taylor has the possibility of doing that. Unfortunately, they're stuck paying Cain $35M for this year and next, and will probably get stuck with JBJ for another year at $11M. I just hope that if Taylor proves to be a better option than one or both of them, they let him play even though the other guys are making a lot more money. I really wanted JBJ to be good, but since he's been bad let him sit the bench as the 5th OF. That would be the best bet at this point to make him want to opt out of his contract and save the Brewers money for next year.
  4. monty57
    This will be an interesting offseason, as the Brewers hold a $12M option on Garcia ($2M buyout), and Bradley has the option of opting out of his $11M for 2022. After a crazy 2020, Garcia is bouncing back nicely and looks to be worth the $12M, while it's looking more and more like Bradley may not opt out of his contract. However, if he becomes the 5th OF in Milwaukee and knows he won't see much PT, he might want to opt out and try to find a starting job somewhere. Whatever happens, it will be nice if Taylor can get some PAs this year to see what we have in him. If he can prove to be an average outfielder at a low cost, then he can allow the Brewers to save some money there and use it to fill holes elsewhere in the roster. The Brewers seem to be in "put up or shut up" mode, which is good. I don't care if they're paying $30M to Cain and JBJ, if Taylor can prove himself to be the best option, then he should be the one playing. It's a shame that of Cain, JBJ, and Garcia, the one we'd probably most want to keep is the one we have an option on, and the ones we'd probably like to get rid of are the ones who will probably be back. I'd love for JBJ to opt out, so we can have a Yelich, Garcia and Cain/Taylor next year, with the possibility of Taylor taking over as a full-time OF when Cain and Garcia are gone. We don't have many cheap position players, so hopefully Taylor can do well.
  5. monty57
    For what it's worth, Taylor is starting today in CF, hitting 6th. Thanks. Taylor's been hot and JBJ hasn't, but JBJ has a much longer track record, so I just think it'll be interesting (and maybe somewhat telling) to see which way they go.
  6. monty57
    So now the big question is, will Taylor get a lot of playing time, or will JBJ be the every day CF until Cain returns?
  7. monty57
    I'd like to feel sorry for Cain, but during his year off, he admitted to doing nothing to stay in shape. Now the Brewers' biggest 2021 salary is going to someone who can't run without pulling a muscle.
  8. monty57
    The talent's there, but something's off either mentally or physically. Sort of like Corbin Burnes when he first came up. You don't just give up on that kind of talent on a whim, but I'd rather the problems get worked out in the minors rather than the majors. Hiura has never had an incentive to cut down on his strikeouts. A season of bus rides and lower pay, along with the knowledge that he won't get called back up until he rights the ship would be a whole lot of incentive to listen. Overall, I'm pretty optimistic about the Brewers right now, but they do have some holes. One big one is a right-handed hitting first baseman who isn't an automatic out, and who has some idea how to play defensively. I doubt Green will be anything more than a serviceable replacement until someone better is found, but the Brewers need corner infield help. Until and unless someone better is brought in, Green is the most obvious answer.
  9. monty57
    I get what you're saying, and Green isn't much of an answer, but Hiura is at -1.3 bWAR in 33 games. That'd be -6.38 WAR over 162 games. The worst seasons (per WAR) in MLB history were both -4.0 WAR by Jerry Royster for the 1977 Braves, and Jim Levey for the 1933 St. Louis Browns. Given enough time, Hiura could be at the top (bottom?) of that list. He needs an extended break at AAA, and if Green is the best we have to replace him, then bring on Zach Green. This might truly be a case of "they can't be worse."
  10. monty57
    Shaw: .199 / .290 / .354 / .644 Vogelbach: .204 / .323 / .324 / .647 That extra .003 OPS isn't worth the defensive difference between the two. Both need to step it up, but if one needs to go it should be Vogelbach. But first, I think Hiura gets sent back down as he's virtually worthless right now and needs to go to AAA to try to regain whatever it is that he's lost. I guess I'm saying that while I'd love to see Shaw doing better, there are a few guys I'd have on the proverbial chopping block ahead of him. Even if we were to bring in a solid corner infielder to start for the remainder of the season, Shaw would probably still have a spot on the bench.
  11. monty57
    I would be surprised. It's necessary after the DH to get everyone back on 4 days rest. Then Lauer goes to the pen, where they do need another at least serviceable arm. It's only been three starts, but if he continues to pitch through All-Star break the way he has up to this point, it may be Houser or Anderson who ends up in the pen for the second half of the year. He has to continue to pitch well, but it would be a great "problem" if they had too many starting pitchers for the second half.
  12. monty57
    So Huira was sitting fastball in his rookie year and pounding them. Pitchers realized this, started throwing more breaking and offspeed pitches, and Huira has been completely confused and guessing wrong far too often??
  13. monty57
    With our players getting healthy, and the addition of Adames, the top five of our order (Wong, Adames, Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez) doesn't look too bad. I'm optimistic that the Brewers will score more runs over the next 50 games than they did over the first 50, especially considering that our opponents should be significantly weaker for the next few weeks. Assuming our pitching keeps it up, we should be sitting in a decent spot around trade deadline.
  14. monty57
    The coach absolutely has some responsibility, and I wouldn't be surprised if Haines' job is in serious jeopardy if for no reason other to "shake things up." But, he's getting blamed for most of the Brewers' woes, and it does seem like he's helping some players. It's possible that his coaching style works for some and not others, and it's also possible that some players just aren't listening (he bears some responsibility there too if that's the case). I like that the Brewers seem to be holding people's feet to the fire, and hopefully everyone realizes that no one's job is totally safe. We're getting healthy and scoring more runs lately, and hopefully that's a trend that continues.
  15. monty57
    That would be 1) Cain, who had one good season with the Brewers, but has looked washed up since. I think he's hit the "age cliff," and taking last year off at his age certainly didn't help 2) Adames, who has looked great since coming to Milwaukee 3) Garcia, who's sporting a 107 wRC+, so he's having a pretty good offensive season after working with Haines this offseason. 4) Pina (later replaced by Narvaez) who are both OPSing over .800 5) Hiura - target of this thread, he's lost, send him down 6) Urias - bad average, but getting on base. His 94 wRC+ as a middle infielder is okay, and the best of his MLB career 7) Bradley Jr. - off to a horrific start. Has 3,443 MLB PAs and was signed at end of spring training. If Haines gets blamed for this, he should get credit for Adames' success. 8) Robertson, who has never been good and is having a bad season. Later replaced by Wong, who is the normal starter and is having one of his better offensive seasons. Today's lineup had a few notable guys sitting the bench to start the game in Yelich, Wong, and Narvaez. The Brewer offense has been down this season, and that has been very widely publicized. The theme of this thread (Hiura) bears a lot of that blame. Now that the team is getting healthy, we should be able to score more runs, and we have been. Hiura needs to go back down, and Cain/Bradley should pretty much just platoon at CF with Yelich and Garcia starting every day. We still have some holes, but things are starting to get a little better.
  16. monty57
    Hiura is lost, no doubt about it. Send him down and try to figure things out. The only thing I've directly read from players regarding Haines was an article where Garcia and Narvaez said he came to their houses and worked with them this summer. They listened to what he said, and both are having great years after they admittedly were swinging for the fences last year... not because Haines or the Brewers told them to do it, they did that on their own. A coach can only do so much. We're in a period where a lot of players want to change their swings to get better "launch angle" and hit more home runs. This has helped some players and hurt others. Narvaez and Garcia pretty much admitted it hurt them, and Haines helped them get back on track. Hiura was probably hurt by this as well, and we'll see if he changes things or if he fades off into obscurity. But, you're right, I don't get the games on TV at home, so I listen to the radio broadcast on MLB.tv (I'm in a blackout zone, so I can't watch). I'd guess that no matter what I saw, I wouldn't be privy to the conversations Haines has with the players, nor would I know if they're listening to what he's saying. I'm pretty sure Garcia and Narvaez are listening to him, so we'll see if they continue to have success.
  17. monty57
    "Overhaul" is probably too strong a term. He probably changed his swing some in order to hit more HR, and that is causing problems. He just needs to get back to where he was when he was the "elite college bat," and it may be better to make that adjustment in Nashville than in Milwaukee. As I mentioned in an earlier post, making this "re-adjustment" could require repetition over time, which is probably better suited to a lower stress environment like Nashville. Lots of prospects have "Sophomore slumps," so expectations for any young player should be tempered. Hiura never got that. He was immediately cemented into the middle of the order with huge expectations, and his "Sophomore year" was the craziness of 2020 when lots of players were having problems. I think it's easy to forget that he's still early in his career, and as high as everyone's hopes are for him, he's still human. While it's bad for the 2021 Brewers that he's stumbling, getting him fixed will do wonders for the team. Let him spend some time in the minors to figure things out. The Brewers will still be around when he's ready to re-join them, whenever that may be.
  18. monty57
    The Brewers (along with a lot of teams) talked about using a six-man rotation, so now might be a good time to start. It will help assure that our pitchers are able to make it through the season, and we have six viable starters on the roster. Lauer has looked good against the two best teams in the National League, so he deserves a few more starts. Any other year, I wouldn't think going to a six-man rotation would make sense, but this year it does, and now seems like a good time to get it going. As you mentioned, for the longer term it will also allow the Brewers to see Lauer and Houser in action to see if they can stick in the rotation. Imagine having five decent, young-ish starters locked up for a few years with a few other promising arms in the upper minors. Historically, it has been tough for the Brewers to find one above average pitcher at any given time. It's nice to dream about the possibilities.
  19. monty57
    And every team in the league would take an extra late-round draft pick if it were given to them. Even though they know the player picked probably won't make the majors, they would select someone they liked with the hopes they could turn into something.
  20. monty57
    Agree. Getting hot for a few games in AAA doesn't equate to fixing the problems that got him sent down in the first place. I hope they had some kind of plan as to what they were going to work on when they sent him down. If they're trying to do something fairly major to his mechanics, it will take repetition over a prolonged period before those habits will stick and he won't fall back into his bad habits. At AAA, he can work on that and not worry about the results. At the MLB level, he can't. What's long-term good for Hiura is long-term good for the Brewers. He's not helping the Brewers by being on the MLB team now anyhow, so they might as well stick him in the minors until he's fixed, even if that means he's down there for months. As an added bonus, he can also learn how to play first base in the minors instead of at the MLB level.
  21. monty57
    Let’s not kid ourselves, they would’ve let McKinney go to New York for nothing, so it’s not like the Mets gave up a “talent” that will improve the Brewers minor league depth to get him. Maybe they gave Milwaukee a player to acquire McKinney immediately, because all 5 Met outfielders are hurt and they needed him now instead of in 4 or 5 days Let's not kid ourselves, the Brewers' farm is one of the worst in baseball. Anything we get to improve that, even slightly, is a positive. I'm not saying that this is a 17-year old Bryce Harper type talent, but the kid is only 17 and has something going for him that made the Mets sign him and the Brewers trade for him. They're called "lottery tickets" for a reason, they're a long shot, but being 17 he'll still physically mature and there's a chance he could be a MLB player. If we had received a 25-year-old AA guy, I'd say he's absolutely minor league "filler." That's not necessarily the case here.
  22. monty57
    Can't complain about this signing at all. Take a journeyman, sign him to a minor league (no risk) deal, have him fill in adequately during a rash of injuries, and flip him for a young LHP "lottery ticket" to add some talent to the farm. I wish the best for McKinney and hope his success with the Brewers helps him get a few years in the majors. Even more, I hope Pedro Quintana becomes the "next Freddy Peralta."
  23. monty57
    JBJ has been bad, but at least he has some track record to bank on... he should "revert to the mean" and get better. It may not happen, but there's reason to believe it could. That said, he and Cain can split time, with Yelich and Garcia playing every day. Other than late inning defensive sets, I hope we don't see a lot of days with both Cain and Bradley on the field at the same time. Other than hopes and prayers, I don't see a lot that makes me believe that Shaw or Vogelbach will suddenly become good. Both have potential to have a hot streak here or there, but neither is going to become a good player over a period of time. At least Shaw can provide some value defensively. Assuming Hiura sticks with the MLB club, I don't really see a need for Vogelbach to remain a Brewer much longer.
  24. monty57
    Looking at the stats, Urias hasn't been horrible (.219 AVG / .325 OBP / .391 SLG / .715 OPS). It's weighted with walks, but walks aren't bad... they're certainly better than outs. Meanwhile Shaw (.199 / .289 / .349 / .638) and Vogelbach (.213 / .331 / .340 / .670) have gotten way too many PAs. With the Brewers making this trade and recalling Hiura, the biggest benefit could be that Shaw and Vogelbach spend a lot more time on the bench. Hiura is still a question mark, but if he can hit, if Adames just does what he's done since becoming a major leaguer, and if Urias gets the rest of the PAs, we could have a significant upgrade in our offense just by giving PAs to guys who don't suck. Yelich taking PAs away from Cain/Bradley should help out a lot as well.
  25. monty57
    I understand why people link this deal to the Grisham deal, and how this deal makes the Urias/Grisham deal look even worse. However, this is a separate deal, and it really looks like we're getting the better end of the deal. Adames was a top prospect, and has transitioned to being a good MLB player. He is above average both offensively and defensively over his career. Rasmussen is a decent prospect with a live arm. He is not near the prospect that Adames was, and in his brief stint in the majors has not been good. That's not saying he can't become a good MLB reliever, but the odds that he becomes "a right-handed Hader" are pretty optimistic. He doesn't have good command, and his stuff isn't nearly as good as Hader. Feyereisen had a hot start to the year, but everyone is capable of good stretches. Nothing in his career shows that he's going to be a dominant reliever. I wish the best for both of these guys, but neither one looks like they will be a dominant reliever, which is what it would take to make up for one average year of what Adames has already done at the MLB level. Throw in that Richards looks to be an average-ish MLB reliever who can help alleviate the loss of the two relievers we sent over, and I think the Brewers did pretty well in this trade. It looks to me like the Rays had excess depth at the shortstop position and were looking to trade away the guy with the least team control in order to make room for the MLB-ready prospect, and the Brewers are the beneficiaries of this situation.
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