monty57
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Everything posted by monty57
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Good point. Are we better off getting Turner and rolling with our current pitching, or getting Paxton or Odorizzi and letting Urias/Robertson play third? I think a good argument could be made either way.
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I get these concerns, but in the end we're still just speculating. It might work out just fine. There's no guarantee it works out badly and that the contract is an albatross by 2023. Of course it could happen that way, but it's not a given. I wouldn't call it speculating, I'd call it playing the odds. Players age differently, but it's probably not a good idea to expect someone to defy age and the mounds of data that suggest that he will regress, probably fairly significantly, over the next few seasons. He will probably be overpaid in year three of a contract, but he may still be the Brewers' best option for third base. They just wouldn't have the extra money to go out and get another player until his contract would be up.
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He would probably take a small discount to play with the Dodgers if everything else is the same, but an extra year on a contract for someone his age is pretty significant. The Dodgers not only have wealth in terms of money, but they also have a strong farm, so I could see why they wouldn't want to add the extra year(s). He could regress and then he'd be blocking a good player. Sadly, the Brewers don't have that problem.
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I'm positive on the Wong signing, and am excited to watch him play. It'll be nice to have better defense and higher OBP. I was being light-hearted in my last post because the three players I mentioned have had a lot of hate thrown their way, but I do get a bit wary when the Cardinals have a player who has been good for them and they decide not to make an effort to re-sign him.
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I hope so, but I always say putting on a Brewers jersey drops your batting average significantly (as opposed to putting on a Cardinals jersey, which somehow seems to improves your output). Plus, the recent history of the Brewers signing guys the Cards didn't re-up includes guys like Jeff Suppan, Kyle Lohse, and Braden Looper. Extra slap to the face I didn't know of: When Suppan went back to the Cards for 15 games in 2010, after posting a miserable 52 ERA+ for Milwaukee, he posted a 101 ERA+ for the Cards. That's better than he did in any season in Milwaukee, where his best was 96 ERA+ in his first season (2007). At least Lohse had two decent seasons in Milwaukee before falling off a cliff. C'mon Wong, break the curse.
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If I recall correctly, one of the main reasons Cain signed was that we added the extra year. I think that's been the case in other situations as well (maybe A-Ram?). I'd guess that the reason we're still in conversations with Turner is that Attanasio is willing to add the extra year. To your first sentence, I saw some bombs Erceg hit in Spring Training and the minors and had high hopes for him. Too bad he stalled out. That we have no "heir apparent" sitting in the minors is probably one reason the Brewers may be willing to add the extra year for Turner. Even if he regresses and is overpaid, he's still not blocking anyone. I'm torn on the potential signing. I should hate it, as I never like signing older players to multi-year deals, but for some reason I'm excited about the notion. I think it's just that I've never been more ready for a baseball season to start than I am right now, and he would be an exciting player to watch this season. Plus, it will get Cubs fans even more depressed as they watch their team fall apart if the lowly Brewers are spending and they aren't. I guess I'm at the point of: The Brewers would probably be better off not signing him to a 3- or 4-year deal, but I'll be excited to watch him play if they decide to go for it. At least they wouldn't be thinning out the already thin farm.
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I get what you're saying. I'd be excited if they sign him, as it should make the Brewers the favorites to win the division this year. However, multi-year deals to older players usually don't end well, and Brewer fans will probably be wishing they didn't have to pay Turner in three or four years. With the lack of 3B talent in the system, at least he wouldn't be blocking a good prospect from making the majors.
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As a long-time Brewers fan, how could you possibly be surprised that they went this route? That move was about as Stearns-esque as it gets. I mean, when has this team's front office ever made the predicted or obvious move? After hearing that they talked to him about this last season, and they've been in on Wong all off-season, I think they realized that Hiura wasn't a second baseman and went into the offseason with the thought of moving Keston to first base. In that case, signing Wong is a big win. I think with third base, they're going to either "go big" or stick with what they have, as the alternatives aren't much better than what they've got. Going big would obviously be Turner, and Attanasio has been called in, meaning that signing him would push them over budget so it needs the owners' stamp of approval. That leaves pitching, where we have a solid 1-2, but could use another starter. If we sign Turner, there won't be any money left over, so someone like Zimmerman could compete for the #5 spot as a veteran innings-eater. If we don't sign Turner, then it'd be great if we could find a reliable middle-of-the-rotation guy to slot into the #3 spot. The top three guys still out there look to be Jake Odorizzi (MLBTR projected 3 years/$39M), James Paxton (proj 1 year / $10M), and Taijuan Walker (proj 2 yr / $16M).
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Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
monty57 replied to TexasCheesehead's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Any team can beat any other team in one series. The Dodgers are the favorites to win it all, but "the best team on paper" rarely ends up winning the World Series. The Brewers are long-shots to win the World Series, but they still have a shot. If Burnes and Woodruff continue their progression, they match up pretty well in a series, and a strong bullpen is always a plus. Brewer fans certainly have more to be optimistic about right now than they have for most of their years of existence. I don't get all the negativity on this board this offseason. As to Braun, I don't think the Brewers have a big enough need for his services to merit them paying him what it would take to get him to play. I'm kind of surprised that some other team hasn't given him a decent offer, as he still has skills. The Brewers just have three starting OF, so without the DH it doesn't make sense to spend big money on Braun. That money would be better spent on a third baseman or maybe even another starting pitcher. -
There is no such threshold. Your first pick (unless you pick in the top 6) gets pushed back 10 spots. That's it. Which is not nothing, but if you're the Dodgers then that means picking 38th-40th instead of 28th-40th. The difference between the type of player available at each spot is a lot less than what spending $30m extra per year on short-term deals gets you. That's what I meant by "draft slots." If it truly were "nothing," then teams wouldn't mind going over it. However, since it was put into play I don't think any team has went over the limit, and numerous teams have worked hard to shed salary. Therefore, I think teams would disagree with the notion that it's "nothing." Baseball teams can't trade picks like they can in the NFL, so we don't have as good a read on how much teams value draft slots. However, teams in the NFL give up quite a bit just to move up one or two slots, so they are valued quite highly. I could see the potential to drop ten slots as a significant hurdle to the Dodgers signing Turner. Friedman builds his teams from the ground up, so not having a first round pick would probably be tough for him to swallow.
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He had better have a really, really great camp to be a decent option for anything at the MLB level because he was really, really bad in his last full season. Hope he can do it of course. Agree. He could be a decent guy to send to AAA if he'd go. Veteran guy who could help coach the kids, and maybe he can come up in September and pitch a couple of bullpen innings in front of his "hometown crowd" before riding off into the sunset.
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Shin-Soo Choo [Brewers reportedly interested]
monty57 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think that when some posters here say “platoon,” they mean that there is a lefty and righty at a position, and not the traditional meaning where one always plays vs LHP and the other always plays vs RHP. If I’m wrong, then a lot of people think Hiura, Garcia and Urias should be sitting around 80% of the time so that a random “trash heap” pick up can start just because he’s left handed. -
If Urias is only going to be the short-side of a platoon, I’d rather we trade him now while he still has some value left. Or just send him to the minors if he’s not ready for full-time duty. I’d expect he’ll start at either SS or 3B vs righties, and at 2B vs lefties. He’s got too much potential to limit him to 40 or so starts. I could see sitting him if we sign someone like Turner, but not for someone like Lamb.
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Has any team ever went over the threshold that costs them draft slots? I would think Friedman would value draft picks as much as anyone, so I think the addition of Bauer makes it a lot less likely that Turner will return to the Dodgers.
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The deferral helps obviously, but it more or less is deferring money to other players that has already been deferred. Obviously we have a buyout for Braun, but we probably have other money going to players not playing for us this year. I really have a hard time believing we are going to add much more payroll. I know we have a glaring hole at 3b but I kinda think they are just gonna roll Urias there, deal with the lackluster offense at the spot, and have plus defense at all 3 key infield spots. Then cross your fingers and hope accruate throws make Hiura's life real easy at 1b. Idk then why the big interest in Turner? I don't know if it's "big interest" or just that the Brewers made a phone call and are being used as leverage by Turner's agent. Either way, if they Brewers can get a significant improvement like Turner, then it may make sense to do it. I don't like the other names being thrown around like Jake Lamb and Brad Miller, because I think the combo of Urias/Robertson has just as good or better chance of making an impact as any of the "mid-tier" names that are being discussed. Problem is, deferring Wong's money doesn't do much to help sign Turner, unless they can somehow convince him to sign a one-year deal. It's likely that the only way Turner will be a Brewer is if they give him more years than other teams are willing to give, so when Wong's deferred pay is due, we'd still be paying Turner.
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There are 1,458 innings in a regular baseball season (162 x 9). Per Fangraphs, Hiura has 1,085 innings as a MLB second baseman, and has -13 defensive runs saved. In other words, he has probably lost some games for us due to his defense already. Never say never, but he probably can't be as bad at first base as he is at second base, and the guy he's replacing (Vogelbach) isn't very good either, so let's say it's a wash moving from Vogelbach's defense to Hiura's. We significantly upgraded our second base defense, so if Hiura is simply as good (bad?) at first base as Vogelbach, we have greatly improved our overall infield defense.
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If teams thought he was 100%, I'd think that he would be getting a lot more interest. I personally like Robertson as a bounce-back candidate for 2021. He hit well in 2018 before getting injured, and hit well in limited exposure last season, so he could be healthy. If we don't get a significant upgrade, then I think we should just roll with Urias/Arcia/Robertson as our 3B/SS mix.
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I think Melvin liked power guys, and they made the majors because "the bat plays." Defense always seemed secondary during the Melvin era. Under Stearns, the Brewers seem to like athletic guys, and they've drafted a lot of middle infielders and center fielders. As they grow and develop, they're sometimes moved to corner positions, but I don't think it's been a big thing since Stearns has taken over. Of course, he hasn't had too many position players graduate to the majors. Hiura is an odd case. He hurt his elbow in college and played DH there, and most people thought he would need elbow surgery after he was drafted. The Brewers didn't force him under the knife, but they too had him DH in the lower minor league levels. Counsell has defended him by saying that he really hasn't had much time playing defense, so he thought that he'd get better as he got more reps. That may well be the case, but the Brewers need to win, so they can't let a player develop at the MLB level. There is reason for concern with him moving, but I think there is also reason to believe that he will do just fine at first base.
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Your sarcasm aside, getting cash back and an open 40-man spot in a cash-strapped year isn't insignificant. I doubt they are going to sign someone for $20M/year but every little bit helps. I know. Just a joke. I'm happy for Frietas, and if the Brewers weren't going to use him, I'm glad they get a spot to hopefully add someone they may need.
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"We believe he can do this," Stearns said Friday of Hiura's move to first base. With certain GM's that statement would be a sure sign that he's being traded. ;-) If Hiura can play average defense at first base, he is going to be a long-term answer for a big question the Brewers had. I hope he's able to prove the naysayers wrong.
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They’ll receive some compensation for granting him his release to facilitate the move and free up a spot on the 40-man roster. They're not sending a player or a pick. My guess is that Stearns ends up with a shiny new Hyundai.
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From the Tweet: David Stearns on Kolten Wong: "We know we're adding in our opinion the best defensive second baseman in all of baseball. ... It allows us to formulate what could be one of the premier defensive infields." If they keep Urias as the primary 3B, with Arcia and Wong, they should have a very good defensive infield. Plus we get Cain back in CF, moving Garcia to the corner where he's a pretty good fielder, and overall we should have a good defensive team to help out what could be one of the best pitching staffs in Brewers' history. If we just get a little "reversion to the mean" from some of our hitters that were down last year, the Brewers could be a fun team to watch. They're kind of turning into an anti-Melvin team, so if you like high scoring games with lots of homers you may be in for a long year.
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I would be completely shocked if this is how it goes down. They gave up a lot for Urias. I can't believe they'd trade him before giving him a chance. Plus Arcia stinks. I don't know if it will happen, but I wouldn't be shocked. Things change, and Urias is out of position at third base. If they could sign Turner (big "if") and trade Urias for a young starting pitcher, they'd be a better team and instead of having a young Urias, they'd have another young pitcher. Turang is still their as heir-apparent at shortstop when Arcia leaves. If they think Robertson is good enough to start at SS every now and then, then it might make sense to trade either Arcia or Urias. Arcia may be more likely, but he probably wouldn't bring much back. If the cards fall into place and there is a team that would give up a good package for Urias, I could see it happening. Of course, I'm also starting to think that Wong was their big move and they're content with Hiura at first, Wong at second and the mix of Urias/Arcia/Robertson at shortstop and third. Urias has upside, and Robertson's history makes me think that if he's healthy he has a chance at being an .800+ OPS, average fielding third baseman. Or it could bomb, which is why they were at least looking at Turner.
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Agree. He's moving to an easier position, and his two biggest deficiencies are lack of range and a poor throwing arm, both of which are much less important at first base than at second. Plus, he's used to playing on the right side of the infield, so he shouldn't be surprised by how the ball comes off the bat. He needs to learn how to scoop. That's very important for first basemen, and if he can't do that he won't stick. Get him to Arizona now and have an instructor throw about 1,000 balls a day into the dirt for him to scoop. He's a professional athlete who has been fielding baseballs his whole life. He doesn't have the tools (speed/arm) for second, but he could be a perfectly fine first baseman. It's a plus that they made this move now rather than mid-season. I'd be more worried if he didn't have time to prepare, but he has all spring to play first base and get accustomed to it. He might not be an adequate defender, but that's far from certain.
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Or we could just keep Urias there and save the million dollars. I would be surprised if Wong is anything but our second baseman. Barring further moves, I think Urias is the guy who will be all over the infield, getting starts almost every day, but that time will be split between 2B, 3B and SS. He makes a great platoon partner with Wong at second, and can play SS or 3B on the days we're facing a righty. I would much rather add a lefty bat at 3B, Urias would play 2B against lefties, which he kills. I'm all for adding a good 3B, but if we do then I hope Urias is our starting SS. If he's relegated to short-side-of-a-platoon third baseman then we should trade him now when he still has some value. He could start at SS vs righties and 3B vs lefties, but we'd still need a platoon at 2B for Wong and Hiura doesn't fit that bill as his backup at first is LH-hitting Vogelbach. Robertson is a possibility, but if we add a LH-hitting 3B, then he could be off the roster. I guess the bottom line is that while I like the Wong signing, there are still a lot of questions.
