monty57

The Brewers are built around pitching and defense. Here's their defense to date: http://www.fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved They also seem to be pretty good on the base paths, but I don't know if there's a stat to show "being smart on the base paths" vs. "being dumb on the base paths." This isn't just stolen bases, but also things like going from first to third, and not running into outs. Getting a single and getting thrown out going for second looks better on the stats than a flyout, but it's still an out. There are a lot of ways to build a winning team. The 2021 Brewers don't fit the mold of what most people think of, but they're scoring a lot more runs than they are giving up. If they keep up the good pitching/good defense combo, they should continue winning games. There's an adage of "work smarter, not harder," so you can achieve results that leave others scratching their heads. Maybe the Brewers are just "playing smarter." Or, maybe they're just lucky and it'll all come crashing down.

The Brewers have scored the 11th most runs in baseball (5th most in the National League). They're below average in HR, Avg, OBP, SLG, OPS, and the only thing they seem to be above average in is Stolen Bases (and I assume base running as a whole), but they're scoring more runs than most of the other teams that don't have the luxury of a designated hitter. They have also had injuries to some of their key players. Maybe being good on the base-paths is working for them, maybe they're "clutch," or maybe we can't make any predictions over a sample set of two weeks. It looks to me like they started off slow and are heating up. They're supposed to be a team built on pitching and defense, so if they end the season with the 5th most runs scored in the National League, I think we'll be watching the Brewers in the playoffs this year.

Yardley had a hard time finding the strike zone. Hopefully a stint at the ATS/minors helps him get things straightened out.

Sometimes, they seem more interested in winning trades in the short-term than they are in winning games in the long-term. Any move has "ripple effects." In this case alone, we didn't just get Crawford, we also got the money we saved, which was used to help out in signing other guys. Heck, we got Shaw, Anderson and McKinney combined for less than $5M. At the end of the day, it's not one move, but a combination of all the moves made that build your franchise. We'll see how the season turns out, but overall I'm enjoying watching the team Stearns put together for this season.

Doesn't change SS, but it does mean that Arcia won't be getting starts at 3B over Shaw and Robertson, both of whom should outperform Arcia offensively. I also hope that Turang progresses, but I haven't given up on Urias. I just think that he was rushed and unfortunately will have to "sink or swim" at the MLB level rather than having the luxury of making his mistakes and learning in the relative obscurity of the minors.

Sobotka is pretty much Ray Black-lite. He's a power arm that can run it up there at 98 mph, but doesn't always know where it's going. Maybe he ends up being useful ... maybe not. Weigel is substantially more intriguing. He's a guy who has put up solid minor league numbers, but was sidetracked by losing basically two seasons (2017 and 2018) to Tommy John surgery. He came back to make 18 starts between AA and AAA in 2019, and put up some very nice numbers. He's obviously quite a bit older for a prospect (will be 27 in July), but he's got a solid chance. He also has an option remaining. He was definitely the "get" in this deal, although any Braves pitching prospect scares the heck out of me. Any particular reasons why they scare you so much? I guess you can't give them total credit for Fried, but they did develop him for most of his professional career. Probably too early to anoint Soroka or Anderson, but they look like home runs so far. For sure they've had some misses but those will happen just from the sheer volume of pitching prospects they've got. I think the "scare" is from pitchers the Braves trade away, not the ones they keep. They have a reputation for being pretty good at evaluating pitching, so if they trade a pitcher away, there's probably they didn't keep him. I don't know if this is as true as it was in the past, but reputations tend to stick.

I think Stearns and Counsell communicate enough that something like this is impossible. How can communication be so bad the GM gets so bothered by a managers use of a player that he has to ship them out of town? I just can't fathom that. The former could certainly be true though. Yeah, I was kind of joking about that although I do think that Stearns would like to see what he's got in Robertson.

So, has Arcia been starting over Shaw just to showcase him for a trade, or has Counsell been using Arcia more than Stearns liked so he felt the need to get rid of him. I think Stearns saw something this offseason that he likes in Robertson, which is why he gave him a guaranteed contract early. He was a top prospect who was showing some promise early in his career before he got injured. There might be something there. I'd guess that we'll see a platoon or "soft platoon" between Shaw and Robertson for a while to see what we have in these two. I've always hoped that Arcia would finally break out, but as it stands right now, we can't afford to have Urias and Arcia as our starting SS/3B combo. I hope the best for him, but I'm glad we got something that can hopefully help the MLB team.

Has there been any indication that Shaw would be playing at first? Heck, I'd take a Shaw start at 3B. Against all RHP, he's got one start while the 1-for-11 Arcia, who has proven nothing in his career as a major leaguer, has gotten the rest. A left-side of Arcia and Urias has to be the weakest combo in the majors, but that appears to be our preferred starting lineup. If Brewer management wants to give Arcia another shot, then I really wish they'd have sent Urias to the minors (alternate training site) to start the season. I don't get the Brewers' reluctance to send struggling young players down to work things out. Very few players come to the majors at a young age and hit the ground running, and they're usually guys like Soto, Harper and Pujols. There's nothing wrong with sending guys back to the minors when they appear overwhelmed at the MLB level. Actually, I think the opposite is true... it's probably good for the player's career.

I think you are correct, with Hiura as our #3.

Opening Day 2021 lineup: 1) Wong (2B) 2) Hiura (1B) 3) Yelich (LF) 4) Garcia (RF) 5) Shaw (3B) 6) Cain (CF) 7) Narvaez © 8) Urias (SS) 9) Woodruff (P)

The Dodgers didn't get their win solely by spending the most money. They brought in a GM that routinely beat the Yankees and Red Sox with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and they built a strong farm which produced a large portion of their current roster (Seager, Bellinger, Beuler, Kershaw, etc). That was after the "Magic Johnson group" bought the Dodgers and threw money at big name players only to see that strategy fall flat. As long as Friedman is the GM, the Dodgers will be a force. Time will tell if Cohen believes in building a strong farm and building from within. Trying to spend your way to a World Series victory rarely turns out well. The Mets have some talent at the MLB level, so there may be a short-term bump that could lead to a WS, but if he doesn't believe in a strong farm, I doubt it will lead to long-term success.

Just going off the numbers MrAllen posted: vs RHP 2B Wong (L) .268/.356/.403/.759 107 wRC+ SS Robertson ® .237/.350/.353/.703 102 LF Yelich (L) .309/.410/.608/.1.018 164 1B Hiura ® .274/.344/.552/.896 131 C Narvaez (L) .276/.349/.453/.802 118 3B Shaw (L) .224/.336/.454/.790 109 CF Cain ® .271/.350/.365/.715 95 RF Bradley (L) .247/.332/.446/.777 103 Pitcher In reality, even though Robertson is probably the better choice at this point in time, we'll likely see Urias at SS batting at the bottom of the lineup, with Cain moved up to #2. vs LHP CF Cain ® .318/.390/.472/.862 130 SS Urias ® .337/.373/.500/.873 133 LF Yelich (L) .305/.395/.581/.975 154 RF Garcia ® .274/.347/.459/.806 116 1B Hiura ® .240/.322/.357/.679 77 3B Robertson ® .260/.368/.382/.749 113 C Pina ® .263/.333/.419/.752 98 2B Wong (L) .272/.321/.360/.681 84 Pitcher We'll probably see something more like Cain-Yelich-Hiura-Garcia, even though Hiura's numbers show he probably should be down in the order vs LHP, and Counsell probably won't put Urias at #2 even though he's killed lefties in his time in the majors. Wong will probably sit against most lefties, with Arcia/Robertson/Urias in some fashion filling SS/2B/3B, but I'd guess if there were a lefty on the mound on opening day, Wong would be out there (and as bad as he is against LHP, he's been better than Arcia).

Whatever happens, I really don't like the idea of giving him two months to prove himself before giving up on him. He's far too young, with too much potential for that. The thought that he's too important right now to send him to the minors, but in two months we'll be ready to start studying next year's free agent market doesn't make sense to me.I misspoke here. I should clarify that I did not mean give him two months and if he isn't hitting to give up on him. I meant at that point I would be ok with sending him down to work on his game at Nashville and allow him the time to develop to eventually replace Wong at 2B or the interim solution at SS (be it Arcia/Robertson or a trade target in season). Thanks for the clarification. I couldn't imagine that you would want to give up on him quite that soon.

Urias is 15 months older than Garrett Mitchell, and four months younger than Ethan Small. Feliciano, Ashby, and Zamora are also around the same age. In other words, Urias deserves some patience. I'm not saying Urias should start at AAA because I don't like him, nor am I saying it because I think Arcia/Robertson are going to become stars. I'm saying it because he is a very talented young player who has struggled and could probably use some time in the minors to get things straightened out, rather than trying to straighten things out in the majors with the clock ticking. The presence of Arcia and Robertson allow the Brewers the luxury to start Urias at AAA (or the "Alternate Training Facility"), so in my opinion he should only start the season on the 26-man roster if he is undoubtedly the best player right now, not that he has the potential to be the best player in the future. I don't have any question that he has the most potential of the three, I just question whether the Brewers might get more total value out of him during the years they "control" him if they give him some time in the minors to start this season. Whatever happens, I really don't like the idea of giving him two months to prove himself before giving up on him. He's far too young, with too much potential for that. The thought that he's too important right now to send him to the minors, but in two months we'll be ready to start studying next year's free agent market doesn't make sense to me. I'm probably fighting an uphill battle, as I highly doubt he starts the year in the minors. I just think that it merits consideration, and may be the best thing for the Brewers in both the short- and long-term.

Yeah, how Arcia was handled is in my mind when I think about Urias. Arcia was brought up in a PR stunt to showcase the team's top prospect. At the time Villar was doing fine at SS, Gennett was manning 2B, and Arcia wasn't ready for the show but he was brought up anyhow. Once up, he was cemented into the position regardless of performance, and Gennett was left without a position, so he was let go right before his breakout. We'll never know how Arcia would've progressed if he was given some more time in the minors, but we know he didn't grow the way we hoped while playing in the majors. The minors are made for development, the majors are not. I don't want the same mistake to be made here. If Urias is the obvious choice, then he should be the starting SS. If it's a toss-up, then let Arcia play and save Urias' service time. All rushing prospects does is uses us their cheap arby years when they're not that good, and by the time they're MLB-ready they're getting expensive. I personally wish we hadn't burned up a year of Burnes' service time bouncing him between the rotation and bullpen when he should have been sent to AAA after his first few starts. When he hits free agency a year early, we'll just have to cry in our beer about how unfair baseball economics are, while we should also be lamenting how we wasted a year of his service time. It's not a big deal if you waste the service time of a so-so prospect, but your top prospects' service time is very valuable... don't waste it. I'd rather have an extra year of Urias' prime when he's playing like a star rather than forcing him onto the roster this year when he's struggling just because "we didn't trade for him to be in AAA."

I have high hopes for Urias, but the reason to play him can't be "We traded away some good players to get this guy, so he's going to be in the majors." He's only 23 years old, and hasn't had success at the MLB level. If the Brewers would be better off sending him to AAA, then they should do it. A lot of players stumble when they hit the big leagues, regroup in the minors, and go on to have good MLB careers. They need to make the decision based on what's best long-term for the team and the player, not based on fan perception or PR. It's probably a coin flip as to which of Urias or Arcia will have the better year in 2021, so play Arcia/Robertson at SS now and save a year's service time so we have Urias for another year of his prime, when hopefully he's an All-Star. At some point, Urias will be forced to "put up or shut up," but we're not really at that point yet.

Totally disagree... We didnt trade for him, to be in AAA. If he's not ready, then he's not ready. I'd rather have him work things out in AAA, so he will be a better player for the years of service the Brewers have him. No sense rushing him just because he was a key part of a trade. If I had to bet, I'd say that he will be on the Brewers' opening day roster, but I think the Brewers would get more total value out of him if they let him spend some time in AAA this year. Not only is he not ready for the majors, but the Brewers would get an extra year of his prime if he spent this year in AAA.

FanGraphs had this in his 2019 prospect write up... "Defensively, he’s perfectly fine at third base and in the outfield corners, and fringy at second base; we’d rather not have him play shortstop." Thanks! I figured that with the Brewers' emphasis on defense this offseason he probably wasn't a complete butcher or they wouldn't be playing him there, but his time playing there in the majors doesn't make him look like he's overly good defensively. To the reference to "the next Hernan Perez," I think Perez was a good defender who made good contact at the plate, but swung at everything. Reyes plays passable defense, but has a good eye at the plate and has consistently (through the minors anyhow) had a pretty good OBP and seems to be a decent overall hitter with good plate discipline. Basically, the comparison to Perez ends at "they both play a lot of positions," as they are not really comparable players. I don't know if he'd be a good enough bat as a left fielder (and certainly wouldn't get much PT there with Milwaukee), so he needs to be good enough defensively at other positions to earn MLB playing time.

Has anyone seen anything about how Reyes is on defense? He has limited time at 2B (38.2 Innings, -0.1 RngR, -0.6 ErrR, -0.8 UZR, -56.9 UZR/150), 3B (30.2 innings, 0.1 RngR, -0.4 ErrR, -0.3 UZR, -12.7 UZR/150), and SS (6.0 innings, -0.4 RngR, 0.0 ErrR, -0.4 UZR, -53.7 UZR/150). From these small samples, it doesn't look like he should play anywhere but left field. However, these samples are small, so does anyone know anything about his defense that would make us think he should get more than a spot start at any of the infield positions? Reyes could be a nice "super-utility" guy with his positional flexibility and decent bat. I think that if the Brewers decide that they have to keep Urias on the MLB roster, it will be hard for Reyes to make the opening day roster. Since I think it would be a good idea to give Urias more time in AAA, I think Reyes would be a good addition to the team. I'd go with a platoon of Shaw/Robertson at third, Arcia at SS, with Reyes at "super utility." Shaw can be used to help back up first base, and Robertson can play SS or 3B if needed. I'd probably put Robertson at SS and Reyes at 3B if Arcia needed a day off and a lefty was pitching. Note that I don't think the Brewers will send Urias to AAA. I just think that they should because he has a lot of potential, so I'd rather see them keep the year's service time for when he's in his prime and playing well rather than wasting the service time now when he's clearly not ready. He will probably be starting at SS mainly because they traded away a lot of talent to get him, and it would look bad if he was in AAA while Grisham is playing well in SD. That shouldn't matter, but it probably will.

I think we're at that point where the sample size is so small that stats are pretty much meaningless. For example, Nick Kahle probably won't have a 2.500 OPS this season for the Crew :-) From what I've seen, Shaw has hit the ball pretty well and looked good at the plate. Sometimes hard-hit balls just get caught. I think Shaw will be added to the roster soon, and agree with you that Shaw will be the 3B starter vs RHP at least to start the season. The Arcia/Urias battle is intriguing to me. The more I watch Urias, the more I hope he starts the season in AAA for "more seasoning." Other than optics, there is no reason he needs to be on the MLB roster to start the season. Let him get more experience at the AAA level rather than wasting service time when he's not ready. Arcia gets one more shot to prove himself, with Robertson as the primary backup at 3B/SS/2B. I personally have hopes that Robertson stays healthy and breaks out a little this year. He was a good prospect who started showing something before he got hurt in 2019, and then had some success in last year's short season. Looks like a good candidate for a breakout year.

I like Cain, and hope he does great for us this year. My biggest concern is that he took last year off, and said the only exercise he got was chasing after his kids. Counsell is obviously concerned about the shape he's in, as he put him on a program that kept him out of games for the first week in order to get him in shape and ready for game action. Then, in that first week of training he pulled something in his leg, further delaying his progression. These guys are professional athletes. I have doubts that Cain will be at his elite level this year. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like he took a year off and got soft, and the Brewers are on the hook to pay him regardless of whether or not he gets back to "playing shape." Meanwhile, Garcia shed 35 pounds and looks like a different person. At this point, I'm thinking that it will be Cain who loses the most playing time out of the trio of Bradley, Cain, and Garcia. Either way, I'm glad we have the extra depth.

Did Hader really choke against Washington though? He struck out the first batter. He hit the second guy, but it looked like ball hit the knob of the bat & should have been ruled a foul ball, but wasn't. He struck out the next batter. Zimmerman hit a broken bat, bloop single. He was careful with Rendon, who walked. Soto singled & the tying/go ahead runs scored on an error. Even if you want to qualify that one outing with at least three bad luck outcomes (erroneous HBP, broken bat blooper, E9) as a choke, Hader allowed zero runs in his other eight postseason appearances covering 11.1 innings. That's essentially setting the standard at never allow a run ever, which seems like a pretty unrealistic expectation to me. Well argued, I know. But, to quote Robert Plant, "and it makes me wonder.... " why the national stage is always too big for the Brewers, when they could finally break through, and reach the franchise's ultimate goal. I know the stats guys will deride this line of thinking, but it kind of comes down to having "big-time players," ones who have major postseason success...guys who tend not to fold, when the chips are down. Those guys, like Justin Turner, are expensive, and of course Mark did at least see the value in trying to bring him in. Think the Cubs would have won in '16 without experienced leaders like Lester, and Heyward, and *gulp*, even Chapman? The Padres are following that line of thinking now, and I'm jealous! So are you happy with Bradley, who was on the Red Sox 2018 World Series championship team, and whose three playoff HRs that year helped them win it all?

I looked into ticket availability at some Spring Training games in Florida, and every game was sold out. I'd guess that most "25% capacity" games will sell out... at least for teams that normally have decent attendance at their games.

So now that multiple states have went to "100% open" with no mask mandates, how will MLB handle it? Will they implement a league-wide policy and force the teams in the "open" states to comply, or will they let each team set their policy based on their specific state's policies? Note that if they put in a league-wide policy, it would seem that it would need to be at least as strict as the strictest state's (of the states that have a MLB team) policies.