monty57

I think it's pretty likely that Garcia won't be a Brewer next year, and with arby raises and current contracts, we probably won't have a lot of extra money. Trading Wong would be a way to free up some cash, but Escobar turns 33 in January and will probably be looking for a multi-year deal. My guess is that he'll be playing elsewhere next year unless the market really dries up and Stearns can convince him to sign a one-year deal.

Good performance by Ashby. Too bad the rain limited the start, but now he has something positive to work from. He's a talented young pitcher who has a bright future with the Brewers. I think he could be one of the September call-ups (if he's not up before then), and with Anderson being a free agent after the season, he should be fighting with Houser and Lauer for the #4/5 spots in the rotation next year.

Well said, and good point on the Brewers already exploring the option when they extended Peralta. I too think we're probably not going to extend Burnes or Woodruff. The fan in me wants to see Burnes extended, but the realist in me says the best thing will probably be to trade both of them at some point in the next three years before they head off for a much-deserved monster contract from a big-market team. Either one of them should be able to bring back a king's ransom in prospects, and both of them should be able to bring back enough talent to keep the Brewers relevant for a long time. My guess is that Hader is traded this offseason, and they'll start testing the waters on Burnes and Woodruff after 2022. Since this is a thread about extension, and with what I just said, the Brewers should be approaching Williams about an extension soon. He'd be a nice guy to have around for a while, and if the Brewers find themselves in a bad place in a few years, closers are generally pretty easy to trade away at the deadline.

Hate to see that with Curtiss. I know he hasn't pitched well for the Brewers, but he's always had good numbers so I was excited when we got him and had a few years of control. With a torn UCL, he's going to be out for a long time, so it not only hurts this year's squad, but next year's as well.

Yeah, I don't see them adding much (if any) salary this offseason unless they find a way to get rid of some of the "dead" salary. Thankfully, most of their upcoming free agents are guys they can afford to lose, so they should still be competitive even if they don't wow anyone on the free agent market this offseason. Extension money would really kick in a few years down the road, and would probably give them a discount in the next few years vs. what they may expect to pay if the player(s) go year-to-year through arby. Whether or not they do any extensions, I would expect they will have to trade some big names (guys like Woodruff, Adames, Burnes) prior to the 2024 season rather than risk having a Cubs-like collapse at the end of 2024. Extending some of the players while trading others could allow for them to have more of a plan on how to continue to win after 2024 rather than having the window slam shut and being forced into a big rebuild. Even if they don't decide to trade away any of the stars, guys like Ashby and Small should make players like Lauer and Houser tradeable, easing the oncoming arbitration crunch, and other players who are set to hit arby are replaceable and will play themselves out of a role as they get more expensive.

If the Brewers can lock up a player in his pre-arby years and get a significant discount in exchange for a guaranteed deal, then they should do it. Once the player gets into his arby years, the discount isn't big enough, and they're basically signing a market value / free agent contract. The Brewers will never be able to remain competitive if they have to sign market value / free agent contracts. Deals like Braun's first deal, Lucroy's deal, and Peralta's deal are examples of what I'm talking about. If one of these works out, it's a steal, and even if it doesn't work out it won't kill the team. Once a player hits his arby years, the Brewers should really start planning on when is the best time to trade him, not whether he should be extended. As to the players in question, Woodruff is probably a little old to extend. We already have him through his prime, so we'd be gaining some post-prime years and paying top money for them. Hader is already into arby and would be too expensive. Burnes and Adames would make more sense due to age, so I wouldn't hate it if one or both of them was extended, but it would need to be done soon as they both enter arbitration next year. I guess that in a perfect world for our rotation, they could extend Burnes to gain 2-3 years, and Ashby and Small step up over the next year allowing us to trade Woodruff at some point before he leaves for free agency. Whether it happens really depends on how big a discount Burnes (and Adames) would give in order to guarantee a longer-term contract. If they demand market-value deals, then just go year-to-year through arby. I think Williams and Urias are the most likely to sign a "Peralta-type" deal. Urias kind of mirrors where Peralta was when he extended in that he's a talented young player who hasn't found a full-time role. At worst, he should be a good utility guy, and at best he could break out and become an All-Star. Neither Williams nor Urias have made "life-changing" money at this point, so they may be willing to leave money on the table in order to be "set for life" with a guaranteed extension.

Bradley's contract is a bit confusing. From Cot's: Jackie Bradley cf 2 years/$24M (2021-22), plus 2023 option - 2 years/$24 (2021-22), plus 2023 mutual option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 3/5/21 - 21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout) - $3.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 14, 2022 and $3M on Jan. 13, 2023, and $166,667 on Jan. 12, 2023 - $6.5M of player option would be deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2022, and $6.167M on Jan. 12, 2024 - $6.5M buyout for 2022 would be payable $3M on Jan. 14, 2022, and $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2023, and $3.167M on Jan. 12, 2024 - $8M buyout for 2023 would be payable $1M on Jan. 12, 2024, and $7M on Jan. 15, 2025 So, assuming he exercises his player option, which seems very likely, the Brewers will owe him $3M next year, $333,333 on 1/13/22, and $6.167M on 1/12/24. Then, assuming the mutual option is declined (again very likely), the Brewers would owe him $1M on 1/12/24 and $7M on 1/15/25. Summing that up, he'd get $3M in paychecks next year, $333,333 on 1/13/22, $333,333 on 1/14/22, $3M on 1/13/23, $7,333,667 on 1/12/24, and $7M on 1/15/25. While we may not have to suffer through watching him play for three full seasons, the Brewers will have to pay him until 2025. In all, $6M while he's playing for us, and $18M deferred.

Yes, and we can be confident that whenever the next move is made there will be posters who will hate it and after spending a couple of minutes looking at a stat sheet will question Stearns' sanity for making the move. I guess that's part of the fun of posting on a fan site.

Well, no one can say that the NL West teams aren't trying to win. It's funny that the Brewers can (hopefully) slide in with the #2 seed, and the East winner will get #3, so the three mammoths of the west will beat each other up so only one can make it to the NLCS.

He has five years of service time left. I hope the rebuild takes that long, but that might be overly wishful thinking. It would kind of suck to be him. Good young player who thinks he's going to play in some meaningful baseball, and maybe even get a World Series ring as soon as this year, and then he's traded to the rebuilding Cubs.

There will still be a lot of beer sold in and around Wrigley on game days, even when the team isn't winning.

Alright, now this guy looks like a nice improvement to the bullpen. About a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and a career 1.15 WHIP. Heck, he's even started some games, so he can go multiple-innings, although I'm sure those was more "opener" roles, and not a traditional starter.

What's actually sad for Cub fans is the fact their organization was managed to the point of requiring an epic teardown in order to try and get competitive again a few years down the road...for a huge market team that really doesn't have a financial equal in its own division it's a black eye on the Theo regime. It's pretty much exactly what Theo did in Boston, except there he was able to get the second WS win, while in Chicago he just traded away the future for some playoff appearances. Then he got out of town and left a mess for the next guy. There are a lot of informed Cub fans, but there are a lot more uninformed ones, and they're going to be very vocal if the Cubs are really bad next year. I can't imagine Hoyer keeps his job for more than a couple of years, even though he was put in a no-win situation and actually got some good talent from these trades.

Plus, they can re-sign their guys. I'd love for the Brewers to be able to offer big extensions to Woodruff, Adames, Burnes, etc., but we all know that's not realistic. Friedman proved to be a great GM with the Rays, and now he's a great GM with unlimited resources. The Dodgers will be a formidable franchise as long as he's running things. I'm just glad that the Brewers are also run pretty well, and one of these years we'll beat the Dodgers in the playoffs to make it to the World Series.

Yes, the salary was huge for the Yankees. According to Cot's, they are at $207,631,173 on the Competitive Balance Tax AAV, with the luxury tax limit set at $210,000,000. They are trying to keep under the limit to reset the timer so they can go over again next year without as substantial a penalty. Fangraphs had Alcantara ranked as the #120 prospect in baseball, and he's 19 so he has a good chance of shooting up the charts over the next couple of years. My question regarding the Cubs is whether they are going to try to completely tank the next couple of seasons to get high draft picks to pair with their really young prospect group, and then throw a bunch of money at the team in a few seasons when guys like Alcantara are MLB ready. Their top three prospects are in AA, and beyond that most are in Rookie or A ball. It'll be interesting to see what they get in their last few deals today, but I wouldn't be surprised if their goal is to shoot for a top five draft pick for the next year or two. They may re-sign Baez to an overpay just to give the fans a reason to come to the ballpark and spend money. He's young enough he could still be good if the next wave is ready in a few years.

If he's correct it won't be too cost prohibitive to acquire a bat or 2 to lengthen the bench/pair up with Rowdy at 1st. Hopefully, at least for the guys who are short-term "rentals," the cost will be taking on the remaining salary and offering the equivalent of the comp pick the team would get if they were to offer a QO. That wouldn't excite fans of the selling team, but it would be great for the Brewers.

I agree about Toro. This is a guy who mashed his way through the minors, had brief tastes of MLB pitching in '19 and '20 (less than 200 total PAs) and looks like he's starting to get some traction with a decent performance in 123 PAs so far this season. JosephC makes a good point about Graveman. I'm sure none of the Mariner players threw a big celebration party when Graveman was re-signed to a reduced value deal when there was little market for him prior to the season. They're in a playoff push, so I get why they don't want to appear to be "selling," but you'd think after a lifetime of playing baseball that players would understand when a player is really good versus when a so-so player is on a hot streak. It's possible this move costs them a bit this season, but it's probably just as likely that Graveman reverts to the guy who put up a 5.69 ERA last year and 7.60 ERA in 2018 and gets shelled the rest of the year, in which case the Mariners would look like geniuses for selling at the perfect time. While he's been great this year, this is a guy whose best seasons have been league average (ERA- of 99 in 2017 and 100 in 2016). Even if you attribute his poor 2018 and 2020 seasons to arm injuries/Tommy John, he still looks like an average pitcher whose forward-looking ZIPs projections predict his ERA & FIP to be around 5.00 going forward. You can't compare the years where he was a starter to now. This year he is strictly a reliever, usually one inning. Completely different mind set and pitch usage. He's the same pitcher. It might not be perfect, but it's better to include the 467.2 MLB innings he's pitched prior to this season, than to base everything off of 33 IP this season.

I agree about Toro. This is a guy who mashed his way through the minors, had brief tastes of MLB pitching in '19 and '20 (less than 200 total PAs) and looks like he's starting to get some traction with a decent performance in 123 PAs so far this season. JosephC makes a good point about Graveman. I'm sure none of the Mariner players threw a big celebration party when Graveman was re-signed to a reduced value deal when there was little market for him prior to the season. They're in a playoff push, so I get why they don't want to appear to be "selling," but you'd think after a lifetime of playing baseball that players would understand when a player is really good versus when a so-so player is on a hot streak. It's possible this move costs them a bit this season, but it's probably just as likely that Graveman reverts to the guy who put up a 5.69 ERA last year and 7.60 ERA in 2018 and gets shelled the rest of the year, in which case the Mariners would look like geniuses for selling at the perfect time. While he's been great this year, this is a guy whose best seasons have been league average (ERA- of 99 in 2017 and 100 in 2016). Even if you attribute his poor 2018 and 2020 seasons to arm injuries/Tommy John, he still looks like an average pitcher whose forward-looking ZIPs projections predict his ERA & FIP to be around 5.00 going forward.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/reds-acquire-luis-cessa-justin-wilson-from-yankees.html Yankees trade relievers Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to Reds for PTBNL. Not a huge move, but our biggest competitor is shoring up their bullpen.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/mariners-finalizing-deal-to-acquire-tyler-anderson.html Tyler Anderson from Pittsburgh for Catcher Carter Bins and RHP Joaquin Tejada.

Not surprised, IMO. I’m certain the Brewers have made inquiries about all of the above and Scherzer. Question is who they’re still in on after that initial discussion…. Donaldson would be a nice pick up if they could get the Twins to pay some cash (not likely), otherwise I don't think the Brewers would be looking to add that kind of commitment to a player who is owed big money for multiple seasons. Unless of course they can convince the Twins to take Lorenzo Cain off their hands. The Brewers certainly wouldn't miss him as he has barely played in two years. I agree. Unless they can add Cain, or at least JBJ into the deal, I don't see how they could afford Donaldson, but if they can find a way to do it he'd be a nice bat to pick up. Money-wise, Story seems more possible. They'd probably have to pay most of his remaining contract and pony up something better than the QO draft pick the Rockies would get if they hold onto him. Tyler Black was the #33 pick this year, so someone on the prospect list around where Black stands would probably make sense. Pitching is always valuable, even when you already have good pitching. If they swing a deal for Gibson, it would probably move Houser to the bullpen and make them an even more formidable opponent in a playoff matchup. Having him for next year puts them in a nice position of having "too much" starting pitching, so they could either trade someone or maintain some nice depth.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/brewers-interested-in-josh-donaldson-trevor-story-kyle-gibson.html MLBTradeRumors saying Brewers are looking at Story, Donaldson and Gibson.

The "outside acquisition" could be made by trading Hiura for him.

His contract and the deferred money I think helps the Brewers chances. If the Brewers were to trade for him, I wonder if it makes Cain or JBJ a likely part of the package going back to the Nats just to slightly offset that. I think the most likely way we could be in on a higher-priced guy who would be controlled beyond this season would be to include a big contract back in the deal. Of course, that would mean that we'd either not get "one of the Padres' top four prospects" by taking on Hosmer's contract, or we would have to give up a whole bunch of extra prospect talent in order to get Scherzer. Of course, Attanasio could see Scherzer as such a prize that he would be willing to raise the payroll and risk losing money in future years in order to get him. He's shown that attitude in the past, so it could be possible.

The bolded part is how people get themselves in lots of trouble, and not just in baseball. It's why people say "I want that new sportscar," and the payments end up sending them into bankruptcy. The Brewers have a limited budget, and with arby raises and contract escalations, we're probably already near the point that we won't be able to add any salary next season unless we find a way to get rid of some contracts. That means we need as many good pre-arby guys as we can get over the next couple of years. Trading away any of the guys who could help us for league-minimum in the next few years could cost us a lot of future playoff appearances. We could possibly take on a "rental" player who costs mostly money instead of prospects this season with no future commitments, but I don't see us taking on a big multi-year deal (like Hosmer) or giving up good prospects. We made our "splash" move when we traded for Adames, and kudos to Stearns for getting it done early rather than waiting for the deadline, as that's a big reason we're in the position we're in. I think Stearns will find a way to acquire a decent reliever, but I don't expect anything "flashy." The good thing is, that strategy is probably why we're odds on favorites to be heading into our fourth straight playoffs, with most of this team set to return in hopes of extending our winning ways well into the future.