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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    Phillips will likely be up next year, so someone will get a one year chance to shine. I hope they give that shot to someone with some youth and upside. If they think Liriano can play CF, I'm fine with that, or I'm fine with Broxton there. I just don't want a guy like Kirk N. or Presley taking that spot. They might be the best option if the #1 priority is winning in 2016, but since the #1 priority should be seeing who will help us down the road, they shouldn't win the spot. The Brewers have said they plan on keeping five OF, and Braun and Santana are locks, so they should be able to keep both Liriano and Flores. I think Broxton should only be up if he's the starting CF, otherwise, let him play everyday in AAA. If Broxton is in AAA, then I guess I'd go with Kirk N as the 5th OF as defensive replacement in CF.
  2. monty57
    I hope those two spots go to Pena and Nolin. The Rule 5 guy can probably open the season on the DL, and then go on a minor league rehab stint, giving the Brewers more time to see if there is an injury or if they want to give up someone like Pena in order to hold onto him.
  3. monty57
    but I'm sure the Brewers have it, not having started a lefty since 2013 (Gorzelanny). That's 354 games and counting That's pretty crazy, but Hader isn't too far off, and hopefully he and Mederios can man two rotation spots for a long time. As to Nolin, I doubt he'd get any starts, but rather would be a solid MR. If Smith is traded, he will then hopefully be able to take over his role, which has a lot of value. He's likely to be the only 2016 return on the Davis trade even though he was only indirectly involved. I assume you mean the only return that will be on the MLB roster, as Nottingham is certainly looking like a solid 2016 return. The Brewers have said he will remain at catcher, setting him up to be ready to potentially take over the MLB spot a few months into next year.
  4. monty57
    I don't know the velocity, but I saw one of the televised games in which he pitched, and he looked dominant. Definitely glad Stearns picked him up.
  5. monty57
    If Lucroy really wants out, he's doing exactly what he should... be a good teammate, helping the young guy who will eventually be the Brewer catcher, ask for as many PAs as you can get, and play really well. I agree we should trade him soon, and we should be able to get a big return for him.
  6. monty57
    That would be a good time frame to see how Garza has pitched. Hopefully he's pitching well, and Davies can be injury insurance until Garza is traded in July, but if Garza stinks for the first month-and-a-half, I'm fine with dumping him and eating the salary and I'd guess Attanasio will be as well.
  7. monty57
    I think Santana will be fine, and comparing their all-around games, I don't think we will be taking a step back in moving from Davis to Santana. Looking at the lineups I posted above, if we hold on to Lucroy I don't think our offense will be terrible. We have some question marks, and guys hoping to bounce back, but that's expected at this stage. We should be better than normal for a team in the first real year of a rebuild.
  8. monty57
    Well, the Brewers are playing the Rangers today, and Maldonado is catching. You'd think if they were showcasing Lucroy's ability to catch, today would be a good day to do so. Also, Gallo playing 3B for the Rangers, and with all of the discussion in this thread, I'm interested in seeing him play.
  9. monty57
    Some misdirected anger. The rule changes he's upset about aren't because of "nerds," but because players make lots of money in guaranteed contracts and the owners don't want to pay that player to sit on the disabled list. The "nerd" influence is on how teams are constructed. It has caused some players to alter their approach, but from a "nerd" point of view, you'd be happy to see the opposing pitcher hitting more of your batters, as it raises OBP. This isn't "old white guy" (which combines both racism and agism, by the way), but more the feeling that seems to be permeating a lot of society: I'm mad about something I don't really understand, and I'm going to blame everything on the thing I'm mad at. Rather than trying to understand the issues, just say "it's their fault," learn a few bullet points, and yell them really loudly.
  10. monty57
    The hints so far are that Braun is the only lock at #3, and Counsell is looking at Santana (high OBP) at leadoff. For what it's worth, Santana said he'd like to hit there. So, here's a shot Vs LHP 1) Santana - RF 2) Lucroy - C 3) Braun - LF 4) Carter - 1B 5) Hill - 3B 6) Liriano - CF 7) Villar - SS 8) Rivera/Walsh/Perez (vs. LHP) - 2B (or play Hill at 2B with one of these guys at 3B) 9) Pitcher vs RHP 1) Santana - RF 2) Gennett - 2B 3) Braun - LF 4) Carter - 1B 5) Lucroy - C 6) Hill - 3B 7) Liriano - CF 8) Villar - SS 9) Pitcher That leaves a lot of talent AAA (and a whole lot more if we were looking at pitching) 1B - Wilkins/Middlebrooks 2B - Rivera (should probably make MLB, but if we want to hold onto Walsh and Perez, he'll start in AAA) SS - Arcia 3B - Cecchini LF - Broxton CF - Phillips RF - Reed C - Pinto/Pina/Weisenburger
  11. monty57
    I think he meant "pay more because they are the cubs" and not "pay more than the next guys". That would just mean you would never trade in the division, because you couldn't say "We like your deal, and it's the best one on the table. Now, throw in another guy because you're the Cubs." If the market says value is X, and they are at X+1, they are already paying a premium. If the attitude is "they would have to overwhelm me," then you are really saying "they have to be really stupid and pay far, far more than anyone else is willing to pay." In other words, you are basically saying you just wouldn't trade within the division. I agree on the Diaz comment. I'm very happy to have him in the system, but we can't construct the Lucroy trade based on an 18-year-old in Appleton. Since we're looking for prospects, we should try to get the best total value offered. Then put them on teams, let them play and see how everything shakes out.
  12. monty57
    If the Cubs offer the best deal that is acceptable, I have no trouble trading him without making them "pay more". If the Cubs have the best offer, then by default, haven't they "paid more?"
  13. monty57
    The Brewers give him a lot of flexibility, allowing him to work TBS, national games, etc. I doubt most teams would allow that, and I think that goes a long way in keeping him here long term.
  14. monty57
    In what other union do new hires get paid more than the journeyman vets? NFL & NBA I agree with your premise, and paying the young guys more would likely mean that older guys would make less. Even though there is a lot of money in baseball, it's not limitless. Teams have budgets, and if you raise the amount the lowest paid workers make, you either have to decrease other expenses (i.e. what the higher paid workers make), or you have to increase revenues. Since the number of tickets are limited, that likely means raising prices.
  15. monty57
    The way things are sitting, I think the Brewers are going to stand pat on their rotation. The team won't be good, but I don't think they're trying to lose, and the current rotation allows for a little bit more depth, with either Davies or Jungmann at AAA (also allowing us to save some service time on one of them). If we trade Anderson, then things could look really ugly when someone doesn't perform and/or we have some injuries. Anderson has team control, and can be traded down the road when more of our prospects are ready to step into the majors. Unlike Lucroy, who is a concussion risk and could bring back a king's ransom in prospects, there is no need to trade Anderson, who to me seems to be a guy who will help the Brewers more as a member of the team then he would as a trade chip.
  16. monty57
    Well, since about 99% of minor leaguers do not make the majors, and since minor leagues do not bring in much revenue, I think they are probably paid fairly. If a AA team signed a big TV deal, then I'm sure the players' salaries would go up, but as it stands the MLB teams probably lose a lot of money on their farm. Hard to argue wages should rise in that environment. Signing bonuses for the players expected to make the majors have skyrocketed, but I don't see why teams should pay higher salaries, thereby losing more money, to guys filling out the minor league rosters when the majority of society barely realizes the minor leagues even exist. For most of them, it's the decision to play a game they love playing, or make similar money doing something far less enjoyable.
  17. monty57
    Now that we have relations with Cuba, maybe he could sign on to their National Team. Or he could go to Japan, where the team pretty much owns the player. Relative to other major sports in the U.S., MLB underpays players for the first few years, but relative to any other job anywhere in the world, he is doing pretty well for himself. Plus, he can get guaranteed money in baseball, so as MrTPlush alluded, he could probably guarantee himself tens of millions of dollars, even if he were to get injured and never play again, by signing an extension instead of going year-to-year. But, players who whine about being underpaid don't seem like candidates for extensions, as they are seemingly about maximizing the dollars they will receive.
  18. monty57
    Agree. I have Cubs at top of list, but not until the deadline. Cubs have blocked players, notably Baez who's an obvious fit at 3B. Brewers have salary room to take back Montero in deal to be stopgap. Why Cubs? Catcher is the one position they have room to get better, and their offense is a little left handed dominant and they could use a RH stick. I wouldn't mind them trading Lucroy to the Cubs, but Baez scares me. It's not just that he strikes out a lot, it's that he strikes out by swinging at 40% of the pitches outside of the zone and only about 60% of the pitches in the zone. In comparison, Chris Carter (another high strikeout guy) swings at 26% of the pitches out of the zone and 70% of the pitches in the zone. Unless Baez can get a better judgement of the strike zone, MLB pitchers are likely to eat him up.
  19. monty57
    But I've easily disproven your proclamation that Braun "will" be worse. Here's my take... I think Braun needs to prove himself healthy, because if he's healthy, he should be productive for the next couple of seasons before he is likely to start going downhill due to age. I think that a healthy Braun has decent trade value right now, but if the Brewers don't trade him in the next year or so, I'm worried that he won't have much trade value, as they will likely be paying too much for his production when he's in his mid-30's.
  20. monty57
    He can always go out and get a "real job" if he feels so under-appreciated.
  21. monty57
    It matters if he sucks. I don't think there is much chance the option vests, but I certainly don't want him getting paid $13M putting up a 5.50 ERA when we should have plenty of pre-arby guys ready by then who could do better for league minimum. I don't think he'll be a Brewer past July. If he starts out poorly, he'll get cut. If he starts out hot, he'll get traded. The way he whined last year when asked to go to the bullpen, I wouldn't risk giving him that option.
  22. monty57
    Do everything you can to boost his confidence. "He's our veteran starter", "he knows how to get things done" whatever.... If being the opening day starter boosts a player's confidence (and therefore performance) in a meaningful manner, then it is a no-brainer that Peralta should be the choice. Garza playing well means that we can trade him for salary relief and a minor prospect. Peralta performing well means either we have an ace for a few years, or we could trade him for a big haul.
  23. monty57
    Do you think their is a substantial offer on the table right now for Braun? Braun had offseason back surgery, and admittedly is a little behind on rehab. Until he proves that the surgery was successful and does not affect his play, no one will trade for him. Well, maybe Dave Stewart, but we already fleeced him. Once he's proven himself healthy, Braun will have trade value, especially if Attanasio would be willing to eat some of his contract in order to up the return. He's very similar to Tulowitzki, so if (like the Rockies bringing back Reyes) the Brewers are willing to bring back a big salary in return, we could probably get a few promising prospects for Braun. The Brewers needed to trade an OF to clear up the logjam, and they did by trading Davis. That means they don't have to rush to trade Braun. They can let him prove himself healthy, and look to trade him at the deadline or next offseason, when we should once again have a logjam in the OF, assuming some of the prospects progress and some of the guys on the MLB roster play well. I personally would like to trade Braun before the final couple of years of his contract, at which point age and a career of injuries will likely have started to catch up with him, and he will probably have lost most of his trade value.
  24. monty57
    One issue with Garza though is I think he has an innings or games started issue that would trigger his extra year? So maybe that would mean some bullpen time. That's likely why they told him to either go to the bullpen or go home at the end of last season, and that should be enough that the option won't automatically vest. That said, I highly doubt he'll be the opening day starter. He'll be in the middle of the rotation. If he pitches like his career norms, someone will trade something for him, even if it's just salary relief. If he pitches like he did last year, the Brewers will cut him and eat the rest of his contract. I'm not too concerned about Garza, as his upside is we get a small return in trade, and his downside is we eat some salary in a year where we have plenty of excess cash. I hope he does well, but the Brewers' future isn't riding on it. If I had to set a rotation today, Peralta would be the opening day starter (I agree with Rickh who said "No reason to burden Nelson with the Ace label yet. Peralta could use the encouragement and boost of confidence, as well.") Then I'd go with Nelson, who is probably the highest upside. Garza and Anderson would be 3/4, and I'd probably go with Jungmann, but would not be upset at all if the Brewers choose Davies. The loser of the Jungmann/Davies battle is the #1 starter at AAA. Pick up some old guy to be "long man," as I hate wasting a young pitcher in that role.
  25. monty57
    This is good in theory, but falls in the "takes two to tango" category. Just because the Diamondbacks are happy to throw away their top prospects, I think it would be difficult to find a lot of other teams willing to make these types of trades... certainly not enough to eat up a significant portion of the money saved with Braun off the books. A more likely scenario is that when/if Braun is traded, the Brewers will take on a 1-2 year contract in that trade to offset some of the cost of Braun's contract and therefore net more in prospects. That 1-2 year contract will then be off the books when the Brewers are ready to start adding free agents to the young core of Phillips/Arcia/other prospects. As to Bundy for Braun, I think that's too much risk to take for the Brewers. If they trade Braun, one of the best players in franchise history, for one player, and that player totally flames out due to injury, fans will be slamming the team for it for the next 40 years. I think it's far better to go for the "Gomez-style" deal with four prospects, at least two of which are very likely to have MLB careers.
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