Ro Mueller

Zamora, Valerio, Black, Brown, Moore, Garcia, Murray, Acosta and Raabe all vying for middle infield time in AA / High-A. Exciting times.

Thanks for this. 33-year old NRI Eddy Alvarez has mainly played SS/2B/3B while hammering AAA pitching from 2018-2022. I’m not sure why we’ve listed him as an outfielder. Hopefully he has some more good years in him.

With LHPs Ashby and Wilson on the shelf early in the year, we’ll have to keep a close eye on Ethan Small, Thomas Pannone and Alex Claudio in spring training and AAA ball, as any of them could easily see an early-season call-up if there’s an injury to Lauer, Miley or Milner.

Great, now I'm terrified about Freddy Peralta pitching for the Dominican Republic in the upcoming World Baseball Classic...

We don't appear to have over-paid for Contreras, Miley or Winker, so in that sense the offseason was positive. We also picked up some interesting arms in Junk, Yeager, Peguero and Seminaris. But we likely misread the relief pitching market, thus erred in not picking up Boxberger's $3m option (paying him $750k to go pitch for the Cubs for another $2.8m), perhaps if only to deal him a month later for a player or prospect of respectable value. And I'm sorry, but the reality is that relief pitching is the main area of the team that we couldn't afford to get wrong. We're ultimately going with youth offensively (Mitchell, Turang, Frelick), so we have to prepare for some tough offensive stretches. And we weren't going to materially improve our awesome starting pitching. So the area for possible tangible gain (in my mind) was the bullpen and we've simply not achieved that yet (Rogers, Boxberger, Suter, Gott out; Houser or Ashby, Javy Guerra, Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson in). We're at least one bullpen addition short at this point. Hopefully Matt Arnold makes a move or two to rectify that.

Signing UT Brian Anderson enabled the Brewers to reduce the Optionless Wonders List by one (1B Jon Singleton, who’s not yet signed on with another club), but Fangraphs still projects two players to be DFA’d before the season starts: RHPs Joel Payamps (a trade seems more plausible to me) and Gus Varland (would we really pay $100k to the Dodgers for this Rule 5 selection, only to return him back before Opening Day to recover half of that amount?). The other side of the coin is DFA Limbo Land, which still has some relatively interesting (mainly relief) pitchers available: RHP Franklin German – 25 – 2.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 38.1 AAA IP in 2022. Three options remaining. Throws 98mph. Red Sox fans online were not pleased when he was DFA’d, as a shift to the bullpen in 2022 unlocked terrific results. Unfortunately, German was traded to the White Sox today for another fireballer, 26-year old Theo Denlinger, so we can scratch him off of this list LHP Anthony Misiewicz – 28 – 4.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 103.2 MLB innings over the past 3 seasons. Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Royals LHP Matt Gage – almost 30 – 2.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 53.1 MLB/AAA IP in 2022 (42.1 IP in AAA, 13.0 IP in MLB). Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Blue Jays RHP Sam Coonrod – 30 – limited to 23.2 innings in MLB/AAA due to injuries in 2022. Two options remaining by my calculation (Fangraphs says one). 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 42.1 MLB IP in 2021. Throws 97-99mph. Situation possibly complicated by guaranteed $775k salary in 2023 (agreed in arbitration). DFA’d by Phillies RHP Jason Bilous – 25 – 5.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 83.2 AA IP in 2022 and even worse numbers in 22 IP in AAA. Two options remaining (Fangraphs says three). Started 21 of 31 games in 2022. Throws 92-97mph. DFA’d by White Sox RHP JB Bukauskus – 26 – 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 20.1 AAA IP in 2022, in his first decent campaign since High-A ball in 2018. One option remaining. Throws 95mph. DFA’d by Mariners

Signing UT Brian Anderson enabled the Brewers to reduce the Optionless Wonders List by one (1B Jon Singleton, who’s not yet signed on with another club), but Fangraphs still projects two players to be DFA’d before the season starts: RHPs Joel Payamps (a trade seems more plausible to me) and Gus Varland (would we really pay $100k to the Dodgers for this Rule 5 selection, only to return him back before Opening Day to recover half of that amount?). The other side of the coin is DFA Limbo Land, which still has some relatively interesting (mainly relief) pitchers available: RHP Franklin German – 25 – 2.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 38.1 AAA IP in 2022. Three options remaining. Throws 98mph. Red Sox fans online were not pleased when he was DFA’d, as a shift to the bullpen in 2022 unlocked terrific results. Unfortunately, German was traded to the White Sox today for another fireballer, 26-year old Theo Denlinger, so we can scratch him off of this list LHP Anthony Misiewicz – 28 – 4.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 103.2 MLB innings over the past 3 seasons. Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Royals LHP Matt Gage – almost 30 – 2.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 53.1 MLB/AAA IP in 2022 (42.1 IP in AAA, 13.0 IP in MLB). Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Blue Jays RHP Sam Coonrod – 30 – limited to 23.2 innings in MLB/AAA due to injuries in 2022. Two options remaining by my calculation (Fangraphs says one). 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 42.1 MLB IP in 2021. Throws 97-99mph. Situation possibly complicated by guaranteed $775k salary in 2023 (agreed in arbitration). DFA’d by Phillies RHP Jason Bilous – 25 – 5.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 83.2 AA IP in 2022 and even worse numbers in 22 IP in AAA. Two options remaining (Fangraphs says three). Started 21 of 31 games in 2022. Throws 92-97mph. DFA’d by White Sox RHP JB Bukauskus – 26 – 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 20.1 AAA IP in 2022, in his first decent campaign since High-A ball in 2018. One option remaining. Throws 95mph. DFA’d by Mariners

Higuera’s still the top of the heap for me. Are the BRef WAR figures not a good indicator of relative pitcher value? To me, Teddy’s got everybody beat in the aggregate and per year metrics: - Higuera - 31.4 WAR in his 6 main seasons - Sheets - 25.6 over 8 years - Caldwell - 17.3 over 8 seasons - Haas - 15.6 over 9 core years - Gallardo - 15.5 over 8 years - Woodruff - 13.6 over 4 core years - Burnes - 11.7 over 3 core years

Isn’t this what we’ve all expected? Oh where oh where could the Astros find their new GM? Maybe the 37-year old who’s credited with positioning the Brewers as a perennial contender, and appears ready for a new challenge?

I’ll take this as a sign that we’re confident in Winker’s full, on-time recovery from knee and neck operations.

Winker played 219 games in left field over the past two seasons, so that's where he'll most likely play if/when he sees the field (e.g. when Yelich needs rest or is injured). I see Frelick (648 innings as CF, 221.1 as LF, 28 as RF in 2022) as more of a left fielder than a center fielder in the majors, given my understanding that his CF defense is inferior to Mitchell and Taylor. But who knows, maybe he'll prove me wrong and win the center field job by 2024. Also, Winker's a left-handed hitter, so him replacing the RHH Renfroe automatically reduces the need for a new, young left-handed hitter, especially in the outfield (like Frelick).

It always felt like over-hype, but looking back at his stats I understand the reason for optimism. He outhit Braggs and Meyer in AA in 1985, then produced a 99 OPS+ in 63 PAs in the majors as a 21-year old that same year despite a .188 BABIP. The 12 BB / 16 K ratio was also decent in the limited MLB play. Then he had an .805 OPS through 131 PAs as a 22-year old in the majors in 1986 before the injury. This was enhanced by a .345 BABIP, but the 23 BB / 20 K ratio was solid. Unfortunately, the injuries from that point onward obviously limited him to AAAA status, never producing adequately in the majors.

I’d love to see the young talent flourish and excite the fans, but I’m refusing to get my hopes up for early call-ups. The Winker pick-up signaled to me that they’ll wait on Frelick. And now the Anderson signing tells me we’ll also wait on Turang. I’m ready for CC to play Anderson a LOT early in the year (3B against righties, RF against lefties), with a bench of Brosseau, Hiura, Toro and Caratini.

“Outfielder Sal Frelick, the Journal Sentinel's second-ranked prospect in the organization, said he expects to begin the season at Class AAA Nashville. ‘I would like to say start off in Triple-A and if I play well I'd like to get a call (to the majors) at some point,’ Frelick said.” https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2023/01/19/willy-adames-freddy-peralta-both-hoping-to-take-part-in-upcoming-wbc/69812397007/

I'm glad this article has generated some active commentary. Thank you. Is it true that the Full Season Minimum MLB Salary is guaranteed to all players that make the Opening Day active MLB roster, but players who DON'T make the Opening Day active MLB roster earn a pittance during the portions of the season that they toil in AAA? If so, then the present situation is probably the most worrisome for guys like Jake Cousins, Abraham Toro, Janson Junk and Brice Turang, whose odds of starting the season in AAA (costing them in gross salary and financial security to boot) are heightened by the ease of being able to option them. In my mind, I figure we've got four things going on: Barely knew ya Trevor Richards-style trade of Joel Payamps for a minor leaguer Keston Hiura vs. Jon Singleton roster decision Gus Varland vs. Bryse Wilson roster decision Comfort starting the season with a 38-man MLB roster, leaving room for future selections of Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer

Are the Brewers going to DFA several players at the end of Spring Training or make a move now to add another optionable player to the 40-man MLB roster? RHPs Tyler Cyr and Manuel Rodriguez are possible additions to consider. If you’re like me, you’re perplexed at the number of Optionless Wonders the Brewers have, leaving the bottom of their roster more unsettled than usual. Each of the following six players must make the 26-man Opening Day active roster, be placed on the injured list, or be designated for assignment: RHP Bryse Wilson – no options remaining RHP Gus Varland – Brewers can’t option him because he’s a Rule 5 pick 1B Jon Singleton – no options remaining; can also reject assignment if he passes DFA waivers 1B Keston Hiura – burned final option in 2022 roster management malpractice; can also reject assignment if he passes DFA waivers RHP Javy Guerra – no options remaining; can also reject assignment if he passes DFA waivers RHP Joel Payamps – no options remaining; highly likely to be claimed if we DFA Even if the team wanted to get creative and send players like OF Tyrone Taylor or RHP Adrian Houser down to the minors for a spell or two, they can’t. Those players also have no options remaining. Does this matter? What does it suggest? It may mean that Matt Arnold is comfortable knowing there will be some roster shuffling at the end of Spring Training, with the Brewers letting guys go and replacing them with releases from other teams. However, any semi-decent players released from other teams are likely also to be Optionless Wonders, so this is unlikely to be the case. More likely, this means the Brewers intend to add at least one more Optionable AAAA player to the 40-man roster, with the corresponding move being: a trade of Jon Singleton, Keston Hiura, Javy Guerra, and Joel Payamps; OR a DFA of Bryse Wilson, hoping he’ll scale through waivers so that he can be outrighted to AAA (the Tigers recently outrighted a whopping four players in this manner, including former Brewer catcher Mario Feliciano). The usual place to find worthy Optionable AAAA players this time of year is via the DFA market, which has seen an impressive 51 players made available for claim or trade from December 18th to January 17th. However, we’re really at the tail end of this vibrant market, as free agent signings slow to a trickle, and teams will, at some point, be able to move injured players to the 60-day injured list. Barring any additional DFAs around the league this week, only three Optionable players remain in DFA limbo. Given the logic outlined above, the Brewers are a good bet to pick up at least one of these players: RHP Tyler Cyr (Athletics) – 29 years old; reliever; only pitched 13 1/3 MLB innings (2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, .290 BABIP against in 2022); solid MILB results (2.85 ERA in AAA in 2022 with 9.9 K/9, 4.91 ERA in AAA in 2021 with 12.0 K/9, 2.05 ERA in AA in 2019 with 10.6 K/9); MLB fastball averaged 94.4mph in 2022 OF Alberto Rodriguez (Mariners) – 22 years old; LHH right fielder; dipped to a .732 OPS in High-A in 2022 after a .867 OPS in Low-A in 2021, averaging ten homers and 10.5 stolen bases over the two seasons RHP Manuel Rodriguez (Cubs) – 26 years old; reliever; pitched 13 2/3 MLB innings in 2022 (3.29 ERA) and 17 2/3 MLB innings in 2021 (6.11 ERA), but walked 21 against 24 Ks over the two seasons; terrific 12.9 K/9 rate across five minor league campaigns; MLB fastball/slider average dipped to 95-95.9mph in 2022 after 97-97.2mph in 2021 as he’s dealt with injuries in three straight seasons Of the three aforementioned Optionable players, I’d venture that Tyler Cyr is the most likely pick-up if Milwaukee aims to add a high-floor guy who can contribute immediately if called upon. He has been a consistent performer who can also bring respectable heat, with the main blemish being his limited time in the majors (and perhaps his age). Of course, Manuel Rodriguez appears to have more upside, and that 97mph pace may be tempting to take a flier on. I should also mention that Cyr has three option years remaining, while Alberto Rodriguez has two, and Manuel Rodriguez has one. Yes, Cyr could seamlessly yo-yo between MLB and AAA from 2023-2025 with no special roster juggling required. Could the Brewers claim Cyr and not give up any cash or player in return? This is possible, given his age, but two other Optionable pitchers were both nabbed today: RHP Connor Seabold was traded to the Rockies, and the Mariners claimed JB Bukauskas. I’d argue that neither is as attractive a 2023 MLB option as Cyr, so the team may have to give up a relatively minor prospect to the Athletics in return. On a somewhat related note, while some had urged the Brewers to add OF Kyle Garlick (who went unclaimed and was outrighted by the Twins on Tuesday) to play some right field and pinch hit against southpaws, his 14 BB/80 K ratio over the past two seasons was likely a deterrent. Of course, I’m more likely wrong, and the Brewers do absolutely nothing. Let’s see how this week pans out. Which of the remaining players in DFA limbo do you think the Brewers will grab, if any: RHP Manuel Rodriguez, OF Alberto Rodriguez, RHP Tyler Cyr, UTIL Matt Reynolds, or RHP Mark Leiter Jr.? View full article

As Nicaraguan pitchers Carlos F. Rodriguez (drafted after moving to US), Stiven Cruz and Alexander Vallecillo continue to progress, we should maintain this recruiting edge in Nicaragua and hopefully unearth some talent.

Not so far apart on Burnes:

Since the Mariners signed him in July 2017, I believe this will be Hernandez’ final minor league season before free agency. So it looks like a deal of uncertainty on both sides: Will Topa re-gain his old form? Will Hernandez progress enough this year (in High-A AND AA) to merit a strong offer to keep around?

Mendez was one of eight hitters playing his age 18 season in Low-A ball last year, so as long as he can be league average in High-A this year with a decent K rate and flashes of pop, we’ll keep dreaming big things: - Jackson Chourio - .973 OPS - Edwin Arroyo - .899 (actually lower as this doesn’t include ~20% of his PAs after late season trade) - TJ White - .784 - Cristian Santana - .745 - Carter Jensen - .745 - Hendry Mendez - .675 - Pedro Pineda - .639 - Daniel Vazquez - .490

Yeah, it seems like a big year for Hedbert Perez, who was being raved about during the 2020 non-season. He’s suddenly entering his 5th year in the organization, even though he didn’t officially debut until 2021. I’ll also be watching a lot of the guys in their 6th season: Clayton Andrews, Micah Bello, Justin Jarvis, Joe Gray Jr., Pablo Garabitos, Arbert Cipion, Branlyn Jaraba, Eduarqui Fernandez, Eduardo Garcia… And let’s hope 2020 2nd round pick Freddy Zamora, likely AA Biloxi’s starting SS to open this season assuming he’s healthy, regains his 2021 form after a lost 2022.

I can't help but think that we underestimated the relief pitching market and now regret not picking up Boxberger's option, similar to December 2019 when we missed out on an easy reunion with Jesus Aguilar then ended up over-paying for Justin Smoak and Eric Sogard. I'll keep my fingers crossed that this all works out in the end, even if our Big 3 Leverage Relievers are Williams/Bush/Milner. {Step 3: Pretend Acceptance (when you're actually doing reverse-jinx Bargaining)]

Maybe it’s time to bring 2008 Brewers’ 21st round draft pick LHP Lucas Luetge home: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/yankees-designate-lucas-luetge-for-assignment.html

Thank you for the article. I'm guessing our current plans for rounding out the lineup against LHP are: Plan A: Hope Hiura is fixed (though you wisely cautioned against expecting this) Plan B: Hope Winker, Toro, Miller or Perkins surprisingly hits lefties well in spring training and it carries over to the regular season Plan C: Play a whole lot of small ball with the likes of Turang and Mitchell