Ro Mueller

Welp. Calling Matt Moore. Come in, Matt Moore.

Let's hope that Ashby's 24-year old shoulder just needs some rest and he'll ultimately break camp as part of the 26-man squad when we destroy the Cubs on March 30th. Relatedly, maybe this will spur us to pull the trigger on that Will Smith (or another competent LH reliever) contract. After not bothering to pick up someone like Kyle Nelson before the 2022 season, I've been a bit disappointed that we've also not picked up any of the inexpensive, optionable LH relievers recently available (e.g. Anthony Misiewicz, Matt Gage, Tayler Saucedo, Darwinzon Hernandez, Zach Logue).

Day 7 (Wednesday) of the 2023 Caribbean Series – Finale of Group Stage The Dominican Republic took care of Curacao 6-2 to clinch the 3rd semi-final slot, then Brian Navaretto’s Puerto Rico squad defeated first place Mexico 9-3 to keep its hopes alive, forcing Venezuela into a must-win night-cap. Navaretto caught and batted 7th as Puerto Rico won its third straight “survival” game. In the group finale, Arnaldo Hernandez and his Venezuelan teammates grabbed an early lead and held on to defeat Columbia 7-4, thus grabbing the final semi-final slot and eliminating valiant Puerto Rico. Hernandez struck out the side in the 7th inning for the second straight night. C Brian Navaretto – 3-for-4, walk; also conceded one stolen base – in Puerto Rico’s 9-3 win over Mexico RHP Arnaldo Hernandez – 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 Ks – in Venezuela’s 7-4 victory over Columbia Scores from Day Seven: Venezuela 7, Columbia 4 Dominican Republic 6, Curacao 2 Puerto Rico 9, Mexico 3 Panama 10, Cuba 4 The single-elimination semi-finals start Thursday, with Mexico playing the Dominican Republic in the first game of the day, while Venezuela and Columbia will once again square off in the night cap.

Day 6 (Tuesday) of the 2023 Caribbean Series Puerto Rico and Venezuela each had stirring comebacks, with Puerto Rico down to their final out against lowly Cuba and essentially on the brink of elimination. An infield error allowed them to score the tying run before a walk-off single gave them a 4-3 victory and evened their tournament record at 3-3. Brian Navarreto had a key walk in Puerto Rico’s 9th inning comeback. Old friend Braden Webb was credited with the victory for throwing three shutout innings, which included another old friend (Bryan Torres) throwing out a runner at home to end the top of the 9th inning. In Venezuela’s case, they stormed back from a 6-2 deficit against Curacao, scoring three runs in the 7th inning and another three runs in the 8th inning to ultimately win 8-6. Turning the tables put Venezuela in a more comfortable position at a tournament record of 4-2, while the loss was devastating to Curacao who fell to 2-4. Arnaldo Hernandez struck out the side in the 7th inning for Venezuela and was credited with the victory. C Brian Navaretto – 1-for-2, walk, HBP; also threw out 1 of 2 basestealers – in Puerto Rico’s 4-3 win over Cuba RHP Arnaldo Hernandez (win) – 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 Ks – in Venezuela’s 8-6 victory over Curacao Scores from Day Six: Mexico 2, Panama 1 Venezuela 8, Curacao 6 Columbia 10, Dominican Republic 1 Puerto Rico 4, Cuba 3 The final group games will be played on Wednesday, with the top four teams going to the semi-finals. Key games to watch include Dominican Republic (3-3) vs. Curacao (2-4) and Mexico (5-1 – will they rest key players?) vs. Puerto Rico (3-3). Also, Venezuela (4-2) vs. Columbia (4-2) is scheduled as the final game of the group stage, which may mean the world or be rather meaningless, depending on what happens in the earlier games and how tiebreak scenarios play out.

Great, now I'm terrified about Freddy Peralta pitching for the Dominican Republic in the upcoming World Baseball Classic...

We don't appear to have over-paid for Contreras, Miley or Winker, so in that sense the offseason was positive. We also picked up some interesting arms in Junk, Yeager, Peguero and Seminaris. But we likely misread the relief pitching market, thus erred in not picking up Boxberger's $3m option (paying him $750k to go pitch for the Cubs for another $2.8m), perhaps if only to deal him a month later for a player or prospect of respectable value. And I'm sorry, but the reality is that relief pitching is the main area of the team that we couldn't afford to get wrong. We're ultimately going with youth offensively (Mitchell, Turang, Frelick), so we have to prepare for some tough offensive stretches. And we weren't going to materially improve our awesome starting pitching. So the area for possible tangible gain (in my mind) was the bullpen and we've simply not achieved that yet (Rogers, Boxberger, Suter, Gott out; Houser or Ashby, Javy Guerra, Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson in). We're at least one bullpen addition short at this point. Hopefully Matt Arnold makes a move or two to rectify that.

Day 5 (Monday) of the 2023 Caribbean Series No Brewers saw action on Monday, though Brian Navarreto’s Puerto Rican teammates were winners to claw back to a 2-3 record and Arnaldo Hernandez’s Venezuelan squad were routed by Mexico to fall to 3-2. Here’s the table summary with two days of group games remaining. The top 4 teams will make the semi-finals: Mexico – 4-1 Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Columbia – 3-2 Puerto Rico, Curacao, Panama – 2-3 Cuba – 1-4 Scores from Day Five: Mexico 7, Venezuela 0 Dominican Republic 10, Panama 1 Columbia 5, Cuba 4 Puerto Rico 3, Curacao 1

Day 4 (Sunday) of the 2023 Caribbean Series Sunday saw four thrilling one-run games, with Venezuela and Mexico moving their records to 3-1, four teams settling at 2-2 and Puerto Rico and Cuba falling to 1-3. Brian Navarreto’s Puerto Rican team gave up an early 2-0 lead in ultimately losing to Panama 3-2, while Arnaldo Hernandez pitched the 7th inning of Venezuela’s 3-2 extra inning victory over the Dominican Republic. C Brian Navaretto – 0-for-4; also gave up 1 stolen base – in Puerto Rico’s loss to Panama RHP Arnaldo Hernandez – 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 Ks – in Venezuela’s 12-inning victory over the Dominican Republic Scores from Day Four: Venezuela 3, Dominican Republic 2 Mexico 6, Cuba 5 Panama 3, Puerto Rico 2 Columbia 6, Curacao 5

Early Sunday AM – Deciding Game of Championship Series: The Perth Heat grabbed a 2-0 lead in the top of the 2nd inning, but Adelaide hometown hero Jordan McArdle smacked a 2-run blast to tie the game in the bottom half. The Giants then grabbed a 3-2 lead in the 4th inning, while their pitchers stifled the potent Perth bats, holding the Heat to just four hits in the game while registering 14 Ks. Adelaide tacked on two late insurance runs en route to their 5-2 championship victory. The Brewers’ Alex Hall caught and batted sixth, singling and scoring the Heat’s second run. In his final opportunity while down 3-2 with two outs in the top of the 8th inning, Hall drew a walk, but former major leaguer Pete Kozma followed with an inning-ending strikeout. C Alex Hall – 1-for-3, walk

Day 3 (Saturday) of the 2023 Caribbean Series No Brewers played on the third day of the competition, as Brian Navarreto’s Puerto Rico squad lost to the Dominican Republic and Arnaldo Hernandez’s Venezuelan teammates pummeled Cuba. Mexico and Curacao each grabbed their second 1-run victory, while Columbia lost its second 1-run game. Scores from Day Three Venezuela 20, Cuba 3 Dominican Republic 6, Puerto Rico 4 Curacao 1, Panama 0 Mexico 7, Columbia 6

Day 2 of the 2023 Caribbean Series Every team which lost on Day 1 was victorious on Day 2, resulting in 8 squads with identical 1-1 records. The most exciting game was Panama’s 6-5 win over Columbia, in which Columbia ended the game with a failed sacrifice bunt (catcher-to-2nd) and a ground ball double play. The Brewers’ Brian Navarreto batted 6th and caught his second straight game for Puerto Rico, which defeated Venezuela 6-1. Old friends Braden Webb (Puerto Rico) and Jhoulys Chacin (Venezuela) were the starting pitchers. C Brian Navarreto – 1-for-5; threw out the only attempted basestealer Scores from Day Two Puerto Rico 6, Venezuela 1 Panama 6, Columbia 5 Curacao 2, Mexico 1 Dominican Republic 3, Cuba 1

Signing UT Brian Anderson enabled the Brewers to reduce the Optionless Wonders List by one (1B Jon Singleton, who’s not yet signed on with another club), but Fangraphs still projects two players to be DFA’d before the season starts: RHPs Joel Payamps (a trade seems more plausible to me) and Gus Varland (would we really pay $100k to the Dodgers for this Rule 5 selection, only to return him back before Opening Day to recover half of that amount?). The other side of the coin is DFA Limbo Land, which still has some relatively interesting (mainly relief) pitchers available: RHP Franklin German – 25 – 2.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 38.1 AAA IP in 2022. Three options remaining. Throws 98mph. Red Sox fans online were not pleased when he was DFA’d, as a shift to the bullpen in 2022 unlocked terrific results. Unfortunately, German was traded to the White Sox today for another fireballer, 26-year old Theo Denlinger, so we can scratch him off of this list LHP Anthony Misiewicz – 28 – 4.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 103.2 MLB innings over the past 3 seasons. Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Royals LHP Matt Gage – almost 30 – 2.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 53.1 MLB/AAA IP in 2022 (42.1 IP in AAA, 13.0 IP in MLB). Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Blue Jays RHP Sam Coonrod – 30 – limited to 23.2 innings in MLB/AAA due to injuries in 2022. Two options remaining by my calculation (Fangraphs says one). 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 42.1 MLB IP in 2021. Throws 97-99mph. Situation possibly complicated by guaranteed $775k salary in 2023 (agreed in arbitration). DFA’d by Phillies RHP Jason Bilous – 25 – 5.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 83.2 AA IP in 2022 and even worse numbers in 22 IP in AAA. Two options remaining (Fangraphs says three). Started 21 of 31 games in 2022. Throws 92-97mph. DFA’d by White Sox RHP JB Bukauskus – 26 – 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 20.1 AAA IP in 2022, in his first decent campaign since High-A ball in 2018. One option remaining. Throws 95mph. DFA’d by Mariners

Signing UT Brian Anderson enabled the Brewers to reduce the Optionless Wonders List by one (1B Jon Singleton, who’s not yet signed on with another club), but Fangraphs still projects two players to be DFA’d before the season starts: RHPs Joel Payamps (a trade seems more plausible to me) and Gus Varland (would we really pay $100k to the Dodgers for this Rule 5 selection, only to return him back before Opening Day to recover half of that amount?). The other side of the coin is DFA Limbo Land, which still has some relatively interesting (mainly relief) pitchers available: RHP Franklin German – 25 – 2.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 38.1 AAA IP in 2022. Three options remaining. Throws 98mph. Red Sox fans online were not pleased when he was DFA’d, as a shift to the bullpen in 2022 unlocked terrific results. Unfortunately, German was traded to the White Sox today for another fireballer, 26-year old Theo Denlinger, so we can scratch him off of this list LHP Anthony Misiewicz – 28 – 4.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 103.2 MLB innings over the past 3 seasons. Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Royals LHP Matt Gage – almost 30 – 2.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 53.1 MLB/AAA IP in 2022 (42.1 IP in AAA, 13.0 IP in MLB). Two options remaining. Throws 93mph. DFA’d by Blue Jays RHP Sam Coonrod – 30 – limited to 23.2 innings in MLB/AAA due to injuries in 2022. Two options remaining by my calculation (Fangraphs says one). 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 42.1 MLB IP in 2021. Throws 97-99mph. Situation possibly complicated by guaranteed $775k salary in 2023 (agreed in arbitration). DFA’d by Phillies RHP Jason Bilous – 25 – 5.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 83.2 AA IP in 2022 and even worse numbers in 22 IP in AAA. Two options remaining (Fangraphs says three). Started 21 of 31 games in 2022. Throws 92-97mph. DFA’d by White Sox RHP JB Bukauskus – 26 – 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 20.1 AAA IP in 2022, in his first decent campaign since High-A ball in 2018. One option remaining. Throws 95mph. DFA’d by Mariners

Is anybody else hoping that we keep Darrien Miller back in High-A for the start of 2023? At his age and defensive level, I don’t see the point of pushing him to Biloxi yet. Here are my projected MILB Catcher placements: AAA: Payton Henry, Alex Jackson, Brian Navarreto AA: Brent Diaz (steady hand), Jason Lopez, Nick Kahle (I’ll never understand too-rapid promotion in 2021, then barely playing in 2022) High-A: Jeferson Quero (bar-none top catching prospect in system), Darrien Miller (just turning 22; let him keep developing and hitting), Alex Hall (done plenty in Australia to earn another year), Jose Sibrian (re-signed for 8th year in organization) Low-A: Matt Wood (injured in just his 2nd game last year), Tayden Hall (6’4”; was mainly a first baseman in college, but he played 35 innings at catcher in ACL), Satchell Norman (decent in 2022 small ACL sample; $125k sign-on bonus and 6 months older than Tayden Hall) Extended Spring Training (possible call-up to Low-A before ACL season starts in June): Jesus Garcia (spent most of 2022 in Low-A, but barely played), Jhonnys Cabrera (put up decent 2022 ACL stats in limited time)

OF Jackson Chourio OF Sal Frelick SS Brice Turang OF Joey Wiemer LHP Robert Gasser - easily our youngest starting pitcher in AAA 2B Tyler Black RHP Carlos F. Rodriguez OF Garrett Mitchell - stay healthy; reduce K-rate C Jeferson Quero - wowed Arizona Fall League with his defense LHP Ethan Small - hopefully bounces back in AAA/MLB this year 2B Felix Valerio - was quite young in AA last year; .670 OPS was suppressed by .249 BABIP; stole 30 bases nonetheless; too bad he doesn't play a premium defensive position SS Eric Brown - known for contact and rated by some as a solid defender RHP Stiven Cruz OF Hendry Mendez - at 19, there's plenty of time to wait for power to show RHP Jacob Misiorowski - will results equal superb talent? RHP Cam Robinson - younger than Gasser; will hopefully build on his breakout 2022 INF Cam Devanney - a shortstop hitting 20 homers in AA requires attention RHP Abner Uribe - will results equal superb talent? OF Jace Avina - 15 homers in 268 PAs last year; 77.6% of his innings were in CF RHP Alexander Cornielle - 145 Ks in 2022 ranked 3rd in Brewers' minor league system

Early Friday AM: Alex Hall’s Perth Heat squad continued its offensive surge, jumping out to a 6-0 lead and defeating Adelaide at home 9-5 in the opening game of the Best-of-3 Australian Championship Series. They’ll now head to Adelaide for games 2 and 3 (if necessary). DH Alex Hall – 0-for-3, walk

2023 Caribbean Series Action from Thursday, February 2 The Opening Day of the 8-team Caribbean Series saw both participating Brewers on the field. Of note, Arnaldo Hernandez entered a 3-2 game for Venezuela in the 7th inning, working around a leadoff error by old friend Orlando Arcia before dispatching the subsequent three hitters: RHP Arnaldo Hernandez – 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 Ks – in Venezuela’s 5-2 victory over Panama C Brian Navaretto – 1-for-3, double, HBP; gave up one stolen base, while the same thief was caught stealing home – in Puerto Rico’s 7-1 defeat to Columbia Scores on Day One Venezuela 5, Panama 2 Mexico 5, Dominican Republic 4 Columbia 7, Puerto Rico 1 Cuba 3, Curacao 1

RHP Arnaldo Hernandez is also participating, playing for Venezuelan champ Leones del Caracas. Similar to Navaretto, Hernandez had actually played for the league runner-up, Tiburones de La Guaira.

Higuera’s still the top of the heap for me. Are the BRef WAR figures not a good indicator of relative pitcher value? To me, Teddy’s got everybody beat in the aggregate and per year metrics: - Higuera - 31.4 WAR in his 6 main seasons - Sheets - 25.6 over 8 years - Caldwell - 17.3 over 8 seasons - Haas - 15.6 over 9 core years - Gallardo - 15.5 over 8 years - Woodruff - 13.6 over 4 core years - Burnes - 11.7 over 3 core years

Although RHP JC Mejia's name has not been included in various tweets about Dominican Republic champ Tigres del Licey's roster for the 2023 Caribbean Series, C Brian Navarreto is listed on Indios de Mayaguez's roster. Navarreto had actually played for the Puerto Rican runner-up, Gigantes de Carolina. So it appears that squads were allowed to poach a few players from others teams! I believe Navarreto is the only current Brewer playing in the competition, although there are a number of old friends: Orlando Arcia, Hernan Perez, Jhoulys Chacin, Jonathan Schoop, Braden Webb, Gabriel Noriega, Bryan Torres, Darren Seferina, Emilio Bonifacio. Also participating is Jose Espada, who played for the independent league's Milwaukee Milkmen in 2022. The competition commences today, with eight league champions from eight countries playing every day in a 7-day round robin ending on Wednesday, February 8th. From there, the top 4 teams will square off in a single elimination playoff (1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 on February 9th; championship and 3rd place game on February 10th).

Winter League Action from Monday, January 30 Tiburones de La Guaira fell 7-6 in 11 innings to Leones del Caracas, thus losing the Venezuelan Championship Series 4 games to 2. Our man Arnaldo Hernandez was in the thick of it, conceding a game-tying run in the bottom of the 7th inning. Colorado Rockies’ infielder Harold Castro was the hero, blasting a walk-off homer off of old friend Johan Belisario to win it for Leones. RHP Arnaldo Hernandez – 1 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 K Thus concludes this particular Winter League Ball 2022-2023 thread. But never fear, there is still baseball being played somewhere on the Earth. Alex Hall and Perth Heat are in the Australian Championship Series, scheduled to start this Friday (early morning), February 3.

Having added Skye Bolt and Monte Harrison to the AAA outfield over the past 48 hours had me re-checking expected outfield MILB placements. Here's my current breakdown of 5-6 outfielders per level to start 2023, allowing for possible opt-outs, trades, injuries and releases: AAA: Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins, Skye Bolt, Monte Harrison, Tristen Lutz AA: Jackson Chourio, Joe Gray Jr. (really hope he figures it out), Carlos D. Rodriguez, Noah Campbell, Je'Von Ward High-A: Hendry Mendez (no point smacking singles and drawing walks in Low-A again), Micah Bello, Arbert Cipion, Lamar Sparks, Terence Doston Low-A: Hedbert Perez (hope for a Micah Bello-April 2022 style breakout), Jace Avina, Luis Castillo, Eduarqui Fernandez, Oswal Leones, Reidy Mercado Extended Spring Training (possible call-up to Low-A before ACL season starts in June): Kaylan Nicasia, Luis Medina Who has better ideas?

Robert Moore led off the bottom of the 1st inning with a first pitch homer to give Brisbane an early lead:

Early Sunday AM: Despite a valiant comeback, Brisbane lost the thrilling deciding game in their semi-final playoff series against Perth Heat, 10-8. After dominating all winter, Cameron Wagoner simply didn’t have it on this day, yielding 6 runs in the 2nd inning to wipe out an early 3-0 lead. The Bandits trailed 9-3 by the 6th inning before clawing back to 9-7 in the bottom of the 7th inning with 2 on and nobody out. A walk and a strikeout later brought Robert Moore to the plate with the bases loaded and 1 out, but he grounded into a 5-4-3 double play to end that threat. With James Meeker (perfect 0.00 ERA throughout Winter ball) covering the final 3 innings to give Brisbane a chance, Darrien Miller got one last opportunity, down 10-8 with 1 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 9th inning. Alas, he flew out to center field to end this series and the 2022/2023 Australian Adventure for Wagoner, Moore, Miller, Meeker, Max Lazar, Brannon Jordan and Justin King. Congrats to Alex Hall and Perth for winning to advance to the Championship against Adelaide, a Best-of-3 series scheduled to commence on Friday, February 3rd. For Brisbane: 2B Robert Moore – 1-for-5, HR, 2 RBIs C Darrien Miller – 1-for-3, 2 walks RHP Cameron Wagoner (loss) – 1 2/3 IP, 6 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 Ks RHP James Meeker – 3 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 0 BB, 3 Ks For Perth: C Alex Hall – 2-for-4; had an error and allowed 3 stolen bases

No Brewers played in Winter League ball on Saturday. Arnaldo Hernandez' Tiburones teammates were defeated 7-2 by Leones del Caracas in Game 5 of the Best-of-7 Venezuelan Championship. They now trail 3 games to 2 in the series.