jay87shot
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Everything posted by jay87shot
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If we trade for Josh Bell or another expiring deal could we offer him a qualifying offer and recoup some value? What would Bell's value be, I wouldnt give up any of out top 5 or so prospects. My guess is that someone will end up giving a top 100 prospect for him. Would 3 decent prospect do, say Hedbert Perez, Cam Robinson, and Mario Feliciano. We really really really need a middle of the order hitter or 2. I can't see us going after any big names unless we over pay for an expiring guy. Brandon Drury and Trey Mancini might make the most sense because they will cost less than Bell or Benentendi.
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Here are some ideas of dealing catcher(s) depth for another spot of need. Pedro Severino and a lower level prospect for Will Benson (Guardians AAA CF)(.264/.423/.928 16 HR, 16 SB) Benson isn't a big time prospect anymore but would be a interesting platoon with Taylor, maybe some Jason Heyward upside. We get Ian Happ from the Cubs the Cubs for Mario Feliciano and a lower level prospect. The Cubs are going to need a catcher after trading Contreas in the near future, Feliciano would be about the right value We get David Peterson from the Mets for Omar Narvaez. Mets will get Degrom back and Peterson would be a great return for rental. Severino to Twins for Jake Cave I still like Cave as a cheapo platoon option with Taylor in Center for the rest of the year.
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2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
jay87shot replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I am really disappointed we didn't really draft any middle of the order potential bats. I am sure that someone could develop but it seems like the 3 SS are more like utility prospects. The Penn St. catcher and Louisville 3B seem like good picks. Misiorowski really is the only pick I would call good value and he was still rated by almost everyone below draft value. I do really like that we are focusing on guys who walk more than strikeout. I do feel that guys like this end up with higher ceilings and can take off as prospects if a little more power. -
How about Ian Happ, he isn't a great CF but he is OK and can play everywhere. He has never been my favorite player in the world but he does have a year of arby left. He probably wouldn't cost a ransom and I doubt the Cubs will care much about in division trading because they are so far away from being competitive. Trade Garrett Mitchell for Happ and Mychal Givens. Could probably be something like Joe Gray and Russell Smith if Cubs prefer that. Trade Kolten Wong to CWS for Aaron Bummer Severino for AAA OF depth. We improve pen depth and fix the OF. Some mix of Peterson, Brosseau, Huira, and Happ would probably improve 2B (or move Urias to 2B and they improve 3B). Happ probably hits in the top 5 and lengthens out lineup.
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Mullins is going to be a borderline e 5 WAR player this year. He isn't a power hitter like he was last year but they did move the fences back considerably at Camden, Mullins is a better fielder. Reynolds has been an everyday player longer but Mullins is more than just a guy.
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It is more that guys like Mullins and Reynolds are above average players who don't need to be traded because of control. With both of those teams a few years away from competing and a bunch of contenders needing CF help the asking price is going to be much higher. Some one will give 2 top 100 prospects up for one of those guys if not at the deadline maybe the offseason.
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What about Whit Merrifield as a CF option? He has only play 80 games in his career but has been statistically a good fielder. His bat hasn't been good this year but he should be much better. Christian Walker could be an interesting idea as well. He would improve 1st defense and hit some dingers. However I am liking Keston getting run at DH. Both of those guys likely wouldn't cost any top prospects and have some control.
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How about something like Michael Pineda and Wily Peralta from Detriot for say Alec Bettinger and a younger guy like Hendry Mendez. We get a solid starter and a good reliever who don't have much value in Detriot on expiring deals. We don't give up much other than a lotto ticket prospect.
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What about a guy like Jake Cave? He would be an upgrade over Davis and maybe even Taylor. He is playing very well in AAA and won't cost much. He would make a nice platoon option, I think would be a slightly better version of Ben Gamel.
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What about Nelson Cruz, he would likely cost nothing and the Nats would probably eat most of his salary. Cruz has been hitting a bit better as of late and would fit in fine. I still like Cedric Mullins a lot but I would guess the O's asking price would be to high. Would 1/2 year of Omar Narvaez get us anything useful? Caratini has been just as good and we have crazy good catcher depth with Feliciano, Reetz, Severino, and Alex Jackson. I feel like we should almost trade 2 of those guys just to improve younger depth in the infield.
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Wong to White Sox for Kyle Crick and a prospect. Severino for AAA OF prospect.. Maybe Michael A. Taylor for a lesser prospect or 2.
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There was an article in the athletic (sorry no link) where Stearns did an interview that said any major offense improvements are going to have to come from in house options. Basically that means we have no budget room from Attenasio and the organization isn't very open to trading prospects. It could also mean that the team intends on bring a prospect or 2 up eventually. Maybe we trade Wong and bring up Turang and give Weimer a chance at CF. Thoughts?
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I meant they won't be able to trade Cain unless they take on a worse contract. Say Cain and a prospect for Miguel Cabrera (Tigers eat 1/2 of remaining contract). Even that would still be a long stretch. There are only a few contracts I can think of off the top of my head that would be bad enough to throw Cain in David Price, MadBum, Stasburg (probably impossible), maybe Hosmer.
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I really think it is time to move Yeli out of the 3 hole. Batting leadoff might change his mindset to getting on base and not trying to hit everything out of the park. Also Cutch and Cain need to take breaks, especially not putting Cutch in the top 4 like it seems he is. Hopefully Adames and Renfrow coming back will be enough but I have been disappointed with the batting order the past couple weeks.
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Cain hasn't just been the worst hitter this year. Looking at some websites he is having the worst season in the past 20 years or so. Here are the worst OPS+ seasons I could find (for guys with 300+ PA) 2022 Cain= 28, 2021 JBJ=34, 2011 Chone Figgins=40, 2017 Adam Engel=40, 2002 Neifi Perez=44, 2018 Chris Davis= 49, 2014 JBJ= 49. To take into perspective Yovani Gallardo had a career 50 Ops+ as a pitcher. Cain has been so bad that I can't see us being able to trade him unless we take a multiyear bad contract back.
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I would think the O's would want players closer to the bigs because there rebuild has been long. If I was the O's I would want something like Huira, Alec Bettinger (or Dylan File), TJ Shook and Garrett Mitchell (or Hedbert). Huira and Bettinger would be guys who can play on the big league team right away and have some upside and the Mitchell gives you the tools upside at AA and Shook has had a better year than Lazar.
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What about Jorge Polanco? The Twins likely want to get Royce Lewis consistent MLB AB's. Polanco hasn't been much better than Wong but we could get Polanco and then swap out Wong to another team. We might even be able to interest the Twins in Cain (if he plays a tad better) as some salary trade off. We get Polanco for Cain, Miguel Sanchez, and Jefferson Quero (or someone like that) Trade Wong to Angels/White Sox for 2 mid/lower tier prospects (or a decent reliever) Maybe if we try Yeli at lead off for a while and have him focus on getting on base more than run production it could jump start him. Yeli, Urias, Adames, Tellez, Renfrow, Taylor, Polanco, Narvaez, DH Would Hunter Dozier interest anyone? His batting stats are solid, however I don't see him being an upgrade over Huira taking over more DH AB's
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With Taylor on fire and Renfrow relatively close to returning (hopefully) I think it makes it an easy chose to make him the 4th OF. Probably a late inning defensive sub at times. While you guys are in Cutch I think a lefty/righty platoon with Huira works and if Cutch starts hitting he can get some AB's back against righties.
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A 36 year old Charlie Morton in the shortened 2020 season and Josh Hader have drastically different values. The Rays have routinely traded pitchers. Snell, Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, and James Sheilds, that isn't even including relief pitchers. $20 million for a reliever on a team that has a max budget of $120 mill is massive. If he throws 60 innings that is 333k per inning. The $20 million isn't prohibitive but if you think about it we can get 2 prospects for trading him and then sign another player or two to 1 year deals to make up for it. Say we trade Hader to San Diego for Luis Campusano and Nabil Crismatt than we use the $20 to sign Kimbral, Kenley, or Knebel 1 year 10-12 and then sign Michael Brantley 2/28) or just JD Martinez 1/20 with a team option. I feel like that combo improves the team over just Hader.
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There are a lot of nothing for nothing trades or a bunch that you can't call wins or losses for 4 or 5 years with young prospects. However, I agree that a trade like Adames or the 1/2 year rentals at the deadlines are win-win type deals. The only clear loss is the Norris and the only seemingly win (at this point) is Brosseau and Gustave
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Caratini for Brett Sullivan (.274/.349/.780 3HR AAA) and Korry Howell (.227/.407/.861 3 HR 8SB AA) Alex Jackson (.203/.286/.640 ) for Hayden Cantrelle (.180/.311/.648 3 HR 6SB AA) and Alexis Rameriz Hunter Renfroe for JBJ (.218/.278/.615 0.5 WAR) Alex Binelas (.274/.416/.956 10 HR A+) David Hamilton (.244/.329/.729 4 HR 18 SB AA) JC Mejia for PTBNL or Cash Mike Brosseau for Evan Riefert (21 ERA in 3 Inn AA) 2021 Season John Curtiss (Mets Injured) for Payton Henry (.143/.314/.457 35 PA MLB) Eduardo Escobar for Cooper Hummel (.190/.313/.658 2HR 2SB 99 PA MLB) and Alberto Ciprian (Rookie Ball?) Kevin Kramer(FA?) for Nathan Kirby (2.76 ERA 16.1 inn 11k AAA) Jandel Gustave and Troy Stokes (FA?) for Samuel Escodero (Dominican League) Daniel Norris (5.54 era cubs) for Reece Olsen (3.6 era 35 inn 54 k 7bb AA) Rowdy Tellez for Trevor Richards (4.34 era 18.2 inn 20 k Jays) and Bowden Francis (8.3 era 30.1 inn 30 k (.2 mlb innings) AAA) Wily Adamas and Trevor Richards for Drew Rasmussen (2.33 era 38.2 inn 34 k 8 bb) and JP Feyerisian (0 era 20 inn 20 k) The Daniel Norris trade is the only one I would say is really bad at this point and most are clear wins.
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My thoughts exactly, for a guy who is going to only pitch 60 or so innings next year we would have to pay that 18-20 million. He should still bring in a top 100 prospect and another decent piece or 2. I have compared it to the Kimbral from Cubs to Sox deal. They got Madrigal a top 100 prospect and Cody Heuer a young reliever with mlb experience. Kimbral had 1.5 years but had more question marks than Hader. I would be fine keeping Hader all the way through, however trading him seems like the most logical idea. It could be a win for next year as well if we get 2 mlb ready players, Hader usually worth 2-3.5 WAR which could easily be made up.
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Are there any potential young bullpen arms that we could get, it seems likely Hader will get traded in the offseason with 1 year left. In all likelihood we probably acquire a couple cheap vets with expiring deals that don't cost much. However, it would be nice to find someone to pair with Williams for a few years, Maybe Gott can be that guy, but my confidence in him is still a bit shaky. Here is a list of controllable guys who I could concievable being traded (I am sure there are more) Jorge Lopez, Dillon Tate, David Bednar, Wil Crowe, Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont, Gregory Soto, Sam Hentges, Trevor Stehan, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez, and AJ Puk. There are probably a whole bunch if we were to trade a starter for a bat and an extra pen arm but that seems less likely with Peralta out for now. Some like David Bednar are probably to expensive and there are a few on that list I know nothing about. I also like Diego Castillo on the M's but his current ERA of over 8 makes finding a value really tough. What if we got Gregory Soto for Garrett Mitchell (actually there are a ton of interesting trades we could make to a team like Detriot) and then a cheaper option like Daniel Bard for a lower level prospect.
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I can't see them bringing up another utility type, Reyes and Mathias are worthy but not much OF help. Dahl seems the logical fit being a lefty and experienced. I agree Peterson would get a fair share of the playing time.
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2022 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
jay87shot replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
What about Ben Joyce from Tennessee the flamethrower from Tennessee? He has been rated in the 100's but I would assume when rankings get updated before the draft he will skyrocket. There are not too many guys who can hit 104. He could potentially be a guy to make it up to the majors this year and help the last month of the year and playoffs if he is successful. Drafting at 27 and not having that extra 1st we sometimes get for the small market I would guess we draft a guy to sign below slot and get a higher profile HS prospect with 63 or 72. I like RHP Adam Mazur from Iowa as a slight reach guy who would sign an under slot deal. He throws 93-95 but can easily put on 30 pounds and would likely be throwing close to 100. Landon Sims from Miss. St would be another nice option, he will likely be a high end bullpen option but might be able to start.
