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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    Pretty sure you can trade this years picks in the offseason at some point, I feel like they switched the rule in the past couple years.
  2. jay87shot
    Brewers Position Players WAR=24.9 Pitchers WAR=9.2 Total= 34.1 Padres Position Players WAR=26.6 Pitchers WAR=11.6 Total 38.2 Phillies Position Players WAR=21.0 Pitchers WAR=21.4 Total=41.4 Cards Position Players WAR=37.2 Pitchers WAR=9.2 Total=46.4 Mets Position Players WAR=26.8 Pitchers WAR=21.6 Total=48.4 Braves Position Players WAR= 27.8 Pitchers WAR=22.5 Total=50.3 Dodgers Position Players WAR=32.6 Pitchers WAR=28.9 Total= 61.5 We don't need to replace the WAR at every position necessarily, but cumulatively it looks like we need minimum +6 WAR to have a stronger shot at the playoffs. I would guess having a healthy Peralta and Woodruff would have added 3-5 WAR alone. Looking at this it might be wiser to add some better arms and maybe a key bat because anyone who watched the games knows we need one solid middle of the order bat.
  3. jay87shot
    I like most of your thinking but Devers will cost more than Urias and some throw in prospects. For 1 year of Devers I wouldn't give up a package that would need a couple solid pieces. I agree on Murphy, he would be great but giving up 3 of our top 10 prospects is a bit strong for a .236 career hitter.
  4. jay87shot
    No thank you on Sanchez, .205 BA and high strikeout rates. Also he has been known as a poor defender (although last year wasn't to bad). What about just bring Severino back. Him and Caratini wouldn't be the worst. Not great but passible.
  5. jay87shot
    You have to remember that in 2015 Stearns took over a team that had a terrible farm system and won 68 games. He quickly rebuilt the team through the Lucroy and Gomez trades, also finding value in cast off players and good small trades. Organizations like the Brewers with low payroll often take 5+ years to rebuild and Stearns did it in 2. Then he kept the team competitive for 5 or 6 years, add onto that that he is only 37. Stearns was probably the best GM this organization has had in my lifetime. People who say good riddance should look at teams like Pittsburg and realize how good and important Stearns has been for us.
  6. jay87shot
    I like the idea of James McCann or Mitch Garver. The Mets would likely eat most of McCann's salary and a change of scenery would do him well. Garver has always had injury issues but there is a good bat there if he can be managed well. Maybe even a guy like Yasmani Grandal if the Sox eat most of his salary. I wouldn't mind a little reclaimation project at the right value. I think each of those guys could be nice stopgaps until Quero is up. We would also have Feliciano in case of injury or major ineffectiveness.
  7. jay87shot
    Stearns loves to wait in free agency for discounted vets. What about these guys as later offseason additions at potentially discounted prices. What are thoughts on JD Martinez? I know everyone (myself included) wants Yeli to DH. What if JD has a low market and like 1/8-12 million offers. If Yeli takes to 1st maybe Yeli at 1st and JD to DH. Throw in Michael Brantley and maybe Matt Carpenter into the same discussion. Josh Bell could be an interesting free agent as well, his second half is going to scare a bunch of people off. Not that he fits but Michael Conforto will likely get a 1 year prove it deal and I could see him taking a while to sign. Joc Pederson would probably fit into the we don't need an OF, but this guy could be a middle of the order bat. Possibly Cody Bellinger as well if he isn't tendered.
  8. jay87shot
    I would no question offer a contract. I don't think I would offer him more than 2 years on an extension. Last year he did have a 3.32 ERA and finished really strong. I would listen to offers on a trade as well, one of the pitchers will be gone. It could be Houser if the team decides to keep the top starters.
  9. jay87shot
    I was just looking at improving 3rd and thought Urshela would make sense. The 3 team idea is that the Twins could use help at SS until Royce Lewis is healthy and the Guardians need hitting. Hunter on the Guardians would be similar to him here, his bat is nice but there are young guys. Also Cleveland could use him a bunch at DH.
  10. jay87shot
    I am pretty sure that sight uses a system that takes a player expected WAR×8 (or however many million 1 WAR is now days) then subtracts the players salary and multiples by years controlled or under contract. So if Burnes has 2, 6 WAR years that is worth 96 points, subtract 11 and say 15 for his next 2 years salary and you get 70ish. For prospects I would guess they go more by prospect rankings. However if Chorio averages 5 WAR a year for 6 years that is a 240 value. Take away the 60 or so million he would earn and that's 180ish. Then it probably would be a percentage of failure so 40% gets us around 72 which is relatively close to the sites evaluatations.
  11. jay87shot
    I like most of these idea, however if this went down I would use the extra money to sign a player like Jose Abreu or a solid pitcher to a 2/3 year deal. I think you could get about that value for Adames and Burnes but it might have to come in 2 seperate deals. I doubt the Dodgers would give up that much prospect value overall (although the Padres did for Soto).
  12. jay87shot
    I feel that our payroll will actually be down this year. Attendance was down over 10% and our front office was quoted as saying we were over-budget multiple times. I would guess that the starting payroll will be more in the 120-125 range. However, I could see Mark A. keeping the pocket book open 1 more year and going for it before ultimately deciding what to do with all those 2024 free agents.
  13. jay87shot
    I feel that our payroll will actually be down this year. Attendance was down over 10% and our front office was quoted as saying we were over-budget multiple times. I would guess that the starting payroll will be more in the 120-125 range. However, I could see Mark A. keeping the pocket book open 1 more year and going for it before ultimately deciding what to do with all those 2024 free agents.
  14. jay87shot
    Whoops, Grayson
  15. jay87shot
    Urias. .239/.335/.735. 110ops+ , +2 runs saved in 73 games at 3rd Urshela .286/.338/.767 121ops+, +4 runs saved in 136 games at 3rd. Both aren't great base runners. Urshela would bring a lot more consistency and have some potential to add a little to the power stats seeing that our field is a better hitters park.
  16. jay87shot
    Urshela was a 3.1 WAR last year. I would guess Turang, Frelich, Mitchell, and Ruiz/Weimer can be easily a 2+WAR players. They all play good defense and are plus/plus base runners. If they hit even .230 they should hit 2+ WAR. Also we would have Urias as out utility infielder as well to help of Turang struggles at 2nd.
  17. jay87shot
    I was disappointed with the offseason because we just kept all the old guys as the 10-15 spots on the bench. I would rather take a chance on a young guy than Serge, Wes, or Hill and then if none of those young guys show out there will be a few vets on the buy-out market who would be as valuable as those old guys. That said I'm going to say 56-26, with a chance 35% chance to make the finals. Especially if the secondary players Portis, Pat, Ingles, Reddick, etc can hit some shots.
  18. jay87shot
    He looks great, where does a 28 year old who has only pitched independent league start, AA? Nice find, especially because he has never likely had super high end pitching coaches. I wouldn't be surprised if he can add 2-3 mph with the crew and be a crazy nasty. Also that beard plays very well, the gingerbeard cometh.
  19. jay87shot
    I think we would just keep Taylor and the have Yeli at DH as insurance. Probably add a couple vet AAA bats similar to Dahl and Davis from last year. Maybe throw in Myles Straw and extend that previous trade.
  20. jay87shot
    How about this 3 team trade. We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out. Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.
  21. jay87shot
    I am not opposed to trading Willy if it means getting great value, however he was be far our best hitter last year (not consistent but best). If we trade Adames we need to make sure we are getting an experienced middle of the order bat somewhere. I love Vargas as well, however I would probably give him a chance at 3rd knowing that he could always move to 1st if need be.
  22. jay87shot
    To be honest, I have always disliked that website. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Weimer are basically the same value. If we could get a top 100 prospect for Taylor he would be gone in a second. Yelich has a negative 122, so we would have to give up like our top 12 prospects not named Chourio to get rid of Yeli for nothing. Also Chouio at 75 has more value than Burnes. Lastly Houser has more value than Lauer. I must have been thinking of a different catcher who started hot, my bad should have look. My point stands that he didn't really have a chance to wear down.
  23. jay87shot
    If Caratini is around 3 million I might consider trading him. He was so awful down the stretch I don't want to rely on him. As a backup fine, but 3 million for a backup C seems a bit much. I think adding a catcher might be my number 1 priority. It seems strange around the All-Star break we had 6 potential mlb level catchers (if you want to count Alex Jackson and Jackson Reetz). Now I don't really like the 2 or 3 we have.
  24. jay87shot
    If you can get Black to play 1B/2B/3B/OF he would be a great guy to platoon somewhere and then would have the versatility to play elsewhere if he can hit lefties. Say we lose Adames down the road and Turang shifts to SS, Black could play 2B vs. righties and then play 1st, 3B, OF if we have a different lefty who struggles at those spots. He should be ok at 1B, 2B, and LF. Probably below in 3B, CF, RF because his arm is fringy. I really try not to worry about defense as a casual fan until they hit the league because you really need to watch a ton of games to really evaluate defense and even the guys at the big prospect sites aren't watching 10ish games of Wright St. or the T-Rats.
  25. jay87shot
    Catchers wear down, Jansen was unconscious to start the year got hurt and than played ok but not out of this world. Take out the 1st month and he is more of who is really should be. Look at Omar's 1st half in 2021, if he got hurt for a month+ at the all-star break he would have had amazing stats. Jansen never had to play more than a couple days in a row with the Jays catching depth. Jansen is a good player but not worth a top 100 prospect.
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