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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Most teams use the POBO to add another layer to the front office; front offices have exploded in size over the past 20 years and more management is needed to handle all the scouts, analytics, development, coaching, etc. I'm most familiar with the Twins in this regard. Their POBO sets high-level instructions for development, approach, etc. but it's actually the GM that is more public-facing and agrees to terms on most contracts, that sort of thing. The GM seems to be more of a day-to-day manager.
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Former Brewer Wade Miley has agreed to a one-year deal to return to Milwaukee and pitch for the Brewers, adding to an already-crowded Brewers rotation in 2023. The Milwaukee Brewers made their first major league free agent signing of the offseason by agreeing to an incentive-laden deal with veteran pitcher Wade Miley. The deal is a one-year contract for $4.5 million with incentives that can max out the Brewers’ commitment to $6 million. The deal includes a $10 million mutual option for the 2024 season with a $1 million buyout. Mutual options are very rarely picked up so consider it a $1 million deal for Miley to not play for the Brewers in 2024. The incentives include $150,000 for reaching 75 innings pitched, $350,000 for 100 innings pitched, and $500,000 if Miley reaches 125 and 150 innings pitched. Miley looks to fill the back of the Brewers’ rotation and could portend pitching trades in the next month to alleviate the crowded nature of the Brewer rotation. The 36-year-old Miley was last effective in 2021 while pitching for the Cincinnati Reds, where he posted a 139 ERA+ over 163 innings pitched. Last year with the Cubs, Miley suffered a shoulder injury and multiple setbacks that restricted him to only 37 innings pitched during the season. Since a disastrous season with Baltimore in 2017, Miley has been an effective starting pitcher, pitching 462 innings with a 3.50 ERA across four ball clubs, including a very nice 2018 partial season in Milwaukee. Miley, a veteran of 12 major league seasons, was never a fireballer as a big leaguer, maxing out with a fastball velocity of just over 91mph. But as age and injury have worn him down through his 30s, his fastball average now begins with an “8,” and in limited 2022 time, his fastball was in the first percentile on Baseball Savant. That wasn’t due to a recent injury, though, as his fastball velocity was in the second percentile the previous season. As previously mentioned, Miley won't blow anyone away, but as long as he's healthy, his movement and stuff allow him to get major-league hitters out at a nice clip. He's the poster boy for the term "crafty lefty veteran". Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2022 Cutter 238 185 53 42.4 85.1 65 56 14 10 1 1 2 7 50 .250 .289 .411 .469 .329 .370 88.7 11 2284 6.1 14.6 18.9 2022 Changeup 177 172 5 31.6 81.4 53 51 13 9 3 0 1 11 40 .255 .245 .373 .347 .287 .275 83.3 -2 1835 6.1 37.4 20.4 2022 4-Seam Fastball 79 60 19 14.1 89.1 20 16 2 1 1 0 0 3 13 .125 .212 .188 .308 .245 .318 88.7 32 2263 6.1 19.4 10.0 2022 Slider 37 2 35 6.6 78.7 14 14 1 1 0 0 0 7 7 .071 .108 .071 .190 .063 .127 88.7 30 2344 6.1 45.0 41.2 2022 Sinker 15 2 13 2.7 88.3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .070 .000 .071 .240 .282 66.9 10 2080 6.2 0.0 0.0 2022 Curveball 15 14 1 2.7 73.5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .110 .000 .153 .000 .100 57.8 -5 2438 6.1 0.0 0.0 2021 Cutter 1,207 948 259 46.6 85.4 293 266 75 43 20 1 11 38 236 .282 .269 .489 .437 .348 .328 83.5 6 2276 6.1 18.5 19.1 2021 Changeup 707 677 30 27.3 81.9 203 185 47 35 10 0 2 36 151 .254 .245 .341 .341 .288 .290 83.0 -1 1807 6.1 33.8 20.9 2021 4-Seam Fastball 422 359 63 16.3 89.9 150 138 34 27 4 1 2 39 99 .246 .235 .333 .391 .284 .300 88.0 18 2239 6.1 17.6 17.1 2021 Slider 134 17 117 5.2 79.2 26 24 5 3 0 0 2 7 17 .208 .216 .458 .428 .309 .302 83.1 17 2310 6.1 35.9 13.7 2021 Curveball 90 74 16 3.5 74.7 9 7 3 3 0 0 0 3 4 .429 .278 .429 .320 .447 .358 87.0 -4 2391 6.0 28.6 14.3 2021 Sinker 31 10 21 1.2 88.7 8 7 2 1 1 0 0 2 5 .286 .281 .429 .583 .355 .407 95.2 4 2025 6.2 23.1 22.2 Miley’s acquisition is somewhat curious given the current Brewer rotation, which already features Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby, and Adrian Houser as options. Miley is an excellent insurance policy at the back of a stacked rotation. Still, it’s hard to envision the veteran agreeing to terms with Milwaukee if some amount of playing time wasn’t guaranteed, particularly given the incentives baked into the contract. Does this imply the Brewers are working to trade one of their current starting pitchers? Given their lack of activity on the free agent market and the lack of remaining decent options available, trading from a position of excess makes sense to help shore up other parts of the roster that could use some help. Obviously, either Burnes or Woodruff would bring back an excellent return but would also cripple the Brewers' chance to compete in 2023. Peralta and Ashby have long extensions in place, making them unlikely trade candidates. That leaves Lauer as the logical remaining candidate, which wouldn't be surprising given his outspoken nature in the clubhouse, which may have ruffled feathers within the organization. What is your take on this, Brewer Fanatics? Is Miley rotation insurance, or is this the first of a series of moves with the Brewers' pitching staff? View full article
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Brewers Sign LHP Wade Miley to One-Year, Incentive-Laden Contract
Brock Beauchamp posted an article in Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers made their first major league free agent signing of the offseason by agreeing to an incentive-laden deal with veteran pitcher Wade Miley. The deal is a one-year contract for $4.5 million with incentives that can max out the Brewers’ commitment to $6 million. The deal includes a $10 million mutual option for the 2024 season with a $1 million buyout. Mutual options are very rarely picked up so consider it a $1 million deal for Miley to not play for the Brewers in 2024. The incentives include $150,000 for reaching 75 innings pitched, $350,000 for 100 innings pitched, and $500,000 if Miley reaches 125 and 150 innings pitched. Miley looks to fill the back of the Brewers’ rotation and could portend pitching trades in the next month to alleviate the crowded nature of the Brewer rotation. The 36-year-old Miley was last effective in 2021 while pitching for the Cincinnati Reds, where he posted a 139 ERA+ over 163 innings pitched. Last year with the Cubs, Miley suffered a shoulder injury and multiple setbacks that restricted him to only 37 innings pitched during the season. Since a disastrous season with Baltimore in 2017, Miley has been an effective starting pitcher, pitching 462 innings with a 3.50 ERA across four ball clubs, including a very nice 2018 partial season in Milwaukee. Miley, a veteran of 12 major league seasons, was never a fireballer as a big leaguer, maxing out with a fastball velocity of just over 91mph. But as age and injury have worn him down through his 30s, his fastball average now begins with an “8,” and in limited 2022 time, his fastball was in the first percentile on Baseball Savant. That wasn’t due to a recent injury, though, as his fastball velocity was in the second percentile the previous season. As previously mentioned, Miley won't blow anyone away, but as long as he's healthy, his movement and stuff allow him to get major-league hitters out at a nice clip. He's the poster boy for the term "crafty lefty veteran". Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2022 Cutter 238 185 53 42.4 85.1 65 56 14 10 1 1 2 7 50 .250 .289 .411 .469 .329 .370 88.7 11 2284 6.1 14.6 18.9 2022 Changeup 177 172 5 31.6 81.4 53 51 13 9 3 0 1 11 40 .255 .245 .373 .347 .287 .275 83.3 -2 1835 6.1 37.4 20.4 2022 4-Seam Fastball 79 60 19 14.1 89.1 20 16 2 1 1 0 0 3 13 .125 .212 .188 .308 .245 .318 88.7 32 2263 6.1 19.4 10.0 2022 Slider 37 2 35 6.6 78.7 14 14 1 1 0 0 0 7 7 .071 .108 .071 .190 .063 .127 88.7 30 2344 6.1 45.0 41.2 2022 Sinker 15 2 13 2.7 88.3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .070 .000 .071 .240 .282 66.9 10 2080 6.2 0.0 0.0 2022 Curveball 15 14 1 2.7 73.5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .110 .000 .153 .000 .100 57.8 -5 2438 6.1 0.0 0.0 2021 Cutter 1,207 948 259 46.6 85.4 293 266 75 43 20 1 11 38 236 .282 .269 .489 .437 .348 .328 83.5 6 2276 6.1 18.5 19.1 2021 Changeup 707 677 30 27.3 81.9 203 185 47 35 10 0 2 36 151 .254 .245 .341 .341 .288 .290 83.0 -1 1807 6.1 33.8 20.9 2021 4-Seam Fastball 422 359 63 16.3 89.9 150 138 34 27 4 1 2 39 99 .246 .235 .333 .391 .284 .300 88.0 18 2239 6.1 17.6 17.1 2021 Slider 134 17 117 5.2 79.2 26 24 5 3 0 0 2 7 17 .208 .216 .458 .428 .309 .302 83.1 17 2310 6.1 35.9 13.7 2021 Curveball 90 74 16 3.5 74.7 9 7 3 3 0 0 0 3 4 .429 .278 .429 .320 .447 .358 87.0 -4 2391 6.0 28.6 14.3 2021 Sinker 31 10 21 1.2 88.7 8 7 2 1 1 0 0 2 5 .286 .281 .429 .583 .355 .407 95.2 4 2025 6.2 23.1 22.2 Miley’s acquisition is somewhat curious given the current Brewer rotation, which already features Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby, and Adrian Houser as options. Miley is an excellent insurance policy at the back of a stacked rotation. Still, it’s hard to envision the veteran agreeing to terms with Milwaukee if some amount of playing time wasn’t guaranteed, particularly given the incentives baked into the contract. Does this imply the Brewers are working to trade one of their current starting pitchers? Given their lack of activity on the free agent market and the lack of remaining decent options available, trading from a position of excess makes sense to help shore up other parts of the roster that could use some help. Obviously, either Burnes or Woodruff would bring back an excellent return but would also cripple the Brewers' chance to compete in 2023. Peralta and Ashby have long extensions in place, making them unlikely trade candidates. That leaves Lauer as the logical remaining candidate, which wouldn't be surprising given his outspoken nature in the clubhouse, which may have ruffled feathers within the organization. What is your take on this, Brewer Fanatics? Is Miley rotation insurance, or is this the first of a series of moves with the Brewers' pitching staff? -
Not kind of. It feels flat-out dumb to me. He's not even as good as Boegarts and the Red Sox let him walk without even trying that hard. He is a lot younger than Boegarts, but still. He's just not that good. Yeah, he's a good player but he's not elite. Other than 2019, he's never even posted a 5+ fWAR season. Four win players aren't supposed to receive 11-year, $330m contracts. This is insanity.
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Not kind of. It feels flat-out dumb to me. He's not even as good as Boegarts and the Red Sox let him walk without even trying that hard. He is a lot younger than Boegarts, but still. He's just not that good. Yeah, he's a good player but he's not elite. Other than 2019, he's never even posted a 5+ fWAR season. Four win players aren't supposed to receive 11-year, $330m contracts. This is insanity.
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It's not a flashy move this offseason, but it adds pitching depth, and the Brewers have shown a knack for converting struggling pitchers into serviceable major league pieces. Earlier in the week, the Pittsburgh Pirates designated right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson for assignment. Today, the Brewers traded for the 25-year-old pitcher for cash considerations. Wilson has spent portions of five seasons in the major leagues, sporting an ugly-looking 5.54 ERA over 232 innings. He spent most of that time as a starter, appearing in 56 games and starting 43. At a glance, this appears to be more roster-filler, potentially for the AAA Nashville Sounds, but intriguing aspects of the young righty deserve to be mentioned. Wilson entered the league as an Atlanta Brave in 2018 with a potent average of 95mph on his fastball. Over the years, particularly last season with the Pirates, that number has slowly dropped to the 92.4mph average fastball he had in 2022. Despite having solid velocity on that fastball - even by 2023 standards - Wilson has struggled to miss bats, posting a low 15.4 K% rate over his career. Undoubtedly, the Brewers plan to send Wilson to Arizona to retrieve some of that lost fastball velocity. It wouldn't be surprising if they immediately moved him to the bullpen, which often helps add a tick or two in velocity. Strangely, despite his struggles, Wilson still threw five different pitches quite often in 2022: And a few of those pitches were massacred by opposing hitters, notably his changeup and four-seam fastball in 2021 and 2022: Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2022 Sinker 593 402 191 32.5 92.1 179 160 49 38 9 0 2 21 141 .306 .296 .400 .407 .342 .341 91.2 5 1958 6.5 11.7 16.9 2022 4-Seam Fastball 438 117 321 24.0 92.7 114 99 30 18 7 0 5 24 77 .303 .278 .525 .498 .384 .370 91.7 21 2034 6.5 22.2 16.7 2022 Slider 290 228 62 15.9 83.4 77 75 18 10 4 0 4 13 63 .240 .314 .453 .530 .297 .364 88.4 17 2160 6.6 20.7 17.8 2022 Changeup 270 72 198 14.8 85.1 82 73 22 12 6 1 3 10 64 .301 .310 .534 .499 .386 .387 92.9 5 1467 6.5 18.8 13.9 2022 Curveball 234 111 123 12.8 77.2 56 53 13 4 3 0 6 11 43 .245 .245 .642 .519 .378 .334 86.1 18 2307 6.5 20.4 18.3 2021 4-Seam Fastball 505 194 311 44.5 93.0 134 120 38 25 5 0 8 20 104 .317 .297 .558 .559 .388 .391 86.7 20 2024 6.6 23.7 16.0 2021 Changeup 225 87 138 19.8 86.8 70 67 18 10 6 0 2 8 60 .269 .333 .448 .537 .309 .378 89.4 8 1576 6.6 14.3 11.9 2021 Sinker 218 158 60 19.2 92.7 68 63 16 8 6 0 2 10 53 .254 .237 .444 .419 .323 .311 87.6 4 2001 6.6 10.9 15.6 2021 Curveball 131 81 50 11.5 77.0 30 27 7 5 0 0 2 7 21 .259 .210 .481 .359 .327 .266 82.7 11 2322 6.6 25.9 18.4 2021 Slider 57 28 29 5.0 86.0 17 16 6 4 1 0 1 1 15 .375 .310 .625 .517 .439 .369 85.3 23 2204 6.6 17.2 14.3 The Brewers likely see something in Wilson to warrant this small gamble on the roster's margins. Given the recent history of the Pirates' pitching development system, Milwaukee's front office surely saw the numbers and realized changes could be made to Wilson's pitch mix and usage and see improved results on the field. Can the Brewers work their fringe-y pitcher magic yet again? View full article
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Brewers Acquire RHP Bryse Wilson from Pittsburgh Pirates
Brock Beauchamp posted an article in Brewers
Earlier in the week, the Pittsburgh Pirates designated right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson for assignment. Today, the Brewers traded for the 25-year-old pitcher for cash considerations. Wilson has spent portions of five seasons in the major leagues, sporting an ugly-looking 5.54 ERA over 232 innings. He spent most of that time as a starter, appearing in 56 games and starting 43. At a glance, this appears to be more roster-filler, potentially for the AAA Nashville Sounds, but intriguing aspects of the young righty deserve to be mentioned. Wilson entered the league as an Atlanta Brave in 2018 with a potent average of 95mph on his fastball. Over the years, particularly last season with the Pirates, that number has slowly dropped to the 92.4mph average fastball he had in 2022. Despite having solid velocity on that fastball - even by 2023 standards - Wilson has struggled to miss bats, posting a low 15.4 K% rate over his career. Undoubtedly, the Brewers plan to send Wilson to Arizona to retrieve some of that lost fastball velocity. It wouldn't be surprising if they immediately moved him to the bullpen, which often helps add a tick or two in velocity. Strangely, despite his struggles, Wilson still threw five different pitches quite often in 2022: And a few of those pitches were massacred by opposing hitters, notably his changeup and four-seam fastball in 2021 and 2022: Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2022 Sinker 593 402 191 32.5 92.1 179 160 49 38 9 0 2 21 141 .306 .296 .400 .407 .342 .341 91.2 5 1958 6.5 11.7 16.9 2022 4-Seam Fastball 438 117 321 24.0 92.7 114 99 30 18 7 0 5 24 77 .303 .278 .525 .498 .384 .370 91.7 21 2034 6.5 22.2 16.7 2022 Slider 290 228 62 15.9 83.4 77 75 18 10 4 0 4 13 63 .240 .314 .453 .530 .297 .364 88.4 17 2160 6.6 20.7 17.8 2022 Changeup 270 72 198 14.8 85.1 82 73 22 12 6 1 3 10 64 .301 .310 .534 .499 .386 .387 92.9 5 1467 6.5 18.8 13.9 2022 Curveball 234 111 123 12.8 77.2 56 53 13 4 3 0 6 11 43 .245 .245 .642 .519 .378 .334 86.1 18 2307 6.5 20.4 18.3 2021 4-Seam Fastball 505 194 311 44.5 93.0 134 120 38 25 5 0 8 20 104 .317 .297 .558 .559 .388 .391 86.7 20 2024 6.6 23.7 16.0 2021 Changeup 225 87 138 19.8 86.8 70 67 18 10 6 0 2 8 60 .269 .333 .448 .537 .309 .378 89.4 8 1576 6.6 14.3 11.9 2021 Sinker 218 158 60 19.2 92.7 68 63 16 8 6 0 2 10 53 .254 .237 .444 .419 .323 .311 87.6 4 2001 6.6 10.9 15.6 2021 Curveball 131 81 50 11.5 77.0 30 27 7 5 0 0 2 7 21 .259 .210 .481 .359 .327 .266 82.7 11 2322 6.6 25.9 18.4 2021 Slider 57 28 29 5.0 86.0 17 16 6 4 1 0 1 1 15 .375 .310 .625 .517 .439 .369 85.3 23 2204 6.6 17.2 14.3 The Brewers likely see something in Wilson to warrant this small gamble on the roster's margins. Given the recent history of the Pirates' pitching development system, Milwaukee's front office surely saw the numbers and realized changes could be made to Wilson's pitch mix and usage and see improved results on the field. Can the Brewers work their fringe-y pitcher magic yet again? -
Well, that'll teach me not to spend the time to cross-check FanGraphs WAR, which I generally find more reliable. In that regard, Devers has a significant advantage over Adames, 18.1 fWAR to 13.7 fWAR. Still, the comp isn't entirely out of whack, as Devers has played one more season. Add in another Adames season and the gap is probably still there but within shouting distance of one another.
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Well, that'll teach me not to spend the time to cross-check FanGraphs WAR, which I generally find more reliable. In that regard, Devers has a significant advantage over Adames, 18.1 fWAR to 13.7 fWAR. Still, the comp isn't entirely out of whack, as Devers has played one more season. Add in another Adames season and the gap is probably still there but within shouting distance of one another.
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The end became a bit much for me personally but it's a really fun ride. I also recommend it.
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Of course, Rafael Devers asking for $300m is quite different from Rafael Devers getting $300m from the Red Sox but it's an alarming ask as the Brewers look to extend one of Adames, Burnes, or Woodruff. Devers and Willy Adames are actually really good comps. Through five seasons, Adames has posted a 15.1 bWAR while through six seasons, Devers has posted a 15.2 bWAR. The two players posted an identical 4.4 bWAR in 2022. Devers has the advantage in career OPS+ - 124 to Adames' 111 number - but Adames has the defensive advantage of being a good shortstop. Devers has both the age and service time advantage, though, which drives up his price a fair amount. He's one year younger than Adames and one year closer to free agency - 2023 is his final arbitration year so he can almost taste free agency in these negotiations. If Devers actually receives anything close to $300m from the Red Sox - let's say $250m+ - does that take an Adames extension off the table for the Brewers? View full rumor
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Of course, Rafael Devers asking for $300m is quite different from Rafael Devers getting $300m from the Red Sox but it's an alarming ask as the Brewers look to extend one of Adames, Burnes, or Woodruff. Devers and Willy Adames are actually really good comps. Through five seasons, Adames has posted a 15.1 bWAR while through six seasons, Devers has posted a 15.2 bWAR. The two players posted an identical 4.4 bWAR in 2022. Devers has the advantage in career OPS+ - 124 to Adames' 111 number - but Adames has the defensive advantage of being a good shortstop. Devers has both the age and service time advantage, though, which drives up his price a fair amount. He's one year younger than Adames and one year closer to free agency - 2023 is his final arbitration year so he can almost taste free agency in these negotiations. If Devers actually receives anything close to $300m from the Red Sox - let's say $250m+ - does that take an Adames extension off the table for the Brewers?

