Brock Beauchamp

I'm aware, this is an automatic cross-post from our trade rumors section of the site.

By locking up the promising young lefty for five years with two additional option years, the Milwaukee Brewers control Ashby through his age 31 season. There’s no downside to the contract from the club’s perspective. As the MLB trade deadline looms, rumors of Brewer acquisitions have been few and far between but on Saturday they surprised with the announcement of a contract extension for Aaron Ashby with only $20.5m in guaranteed money. The guaranteed portion of the contract locks up Ashby through his final team-controlled season in 2027: a $1m signing bonus and then a gradually-rising salary that ultimately peaks at $7.5m guaranteed in 2027 for a total of $19.5m through five seasons. Should Milwaukee decline Ashby’s 2028 $9m team option, they will owe him an additional $1m buyout but if they retain his services, they have another team option available in 2029 for $13m. On top of the option years, a significant portion of the contract is in performance-based escalators: up to $1.5m could be added to the 2028 option if Ashby averages 150 or more innings from 2025-2027 and up to another $1.5m if he finishes in the top ten for the National League Cy Young Award in those years. There are similar escalators built into the 2029 option as well. It’s hard to imagine these terms being more team-friendly for the Brewers. The innings pitched escalators don’t begin to kick in until Ashby averages 150 innings pitched over three seasons. To show how significant this number is in modern baseball, only 55 pitchers pitched 150 innings in the 2021 season. In a game where starters are routinely pulled after two turns through the order, even reaching 150 innings in a season is a significant feat that occurs fewer than two times per MLB team. The escalators top out when Ashby averages 180 innings over three seasons. Only 20 pitchers threw 180 innings in the 2021 season. Unfortunately, the Covid-shortened 2020 season makes it hard to count the number of pitchers who could have averaged 180 innings over the past three seasons, but the number can probably be counted on one hand. The escalators become moot if Ashby is converted into a late-inning relief option, which may be his most likely outcome. Moving to a relief role takes $6m of escalators out of the contract entirely, bringing the uppermost limit to $40m through seven seasons. Ashby’s surface numbers aren’t that appealing, as he has only a 4.43 ERA through his first 107 innings, good for a 93 ERA+ (100 is average so slightly below average once adjusted for league and park). If you dig into his underlying numbers, you see why the Brewers were eager to lock him up into his early 30s: Ashby has a much better-looking 3.76 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and a 27.9% strikeout rate. While neither of those numbers are elite, they’re both above league average for a starter and show the potential still untapped in that 24-year-old arm. Should Ashby falter as a starter, Milwaukee can easily convert his 96mph fastball to the bullpen, where it could go from mid-90s to high-90s overnight. Coupled with a slider and change, his fallback plan still profiles as a good late-inning reliever. The obvious comparison to this contract extension is Freddy Peralta, whom the Brewers signed to a five-year extension in the weeks preceding the Covid shutdown in Spring Training of 2020. Entering that season, Peralta was in a similar position to Ashby today: roughly 150 innings pitched over two split seasons with an ungainly 4.79 ERA, but a well above average 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings and a sub-4.00 FIP. Since signing that contract, Peralta has been dynamite in the Milwaukee rotation, pitching 212 innings with a 3.26 ERA and 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings. According to FanGraphs, Peralta has been worth 5.3 Wins Above Replacement which in itself is worth far more than the $15.5m Peralta was guaranteed through the end of the 2024 season. The Peralta contract is something approaching a best-case outcome for Ashby but it illustrates how a contract of this size can pay for itself in one or two seasons. According to SportTrac, the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers will pay roughly $133m in player contracts. Should that payroll number remain static - and generally speaking, payroll only rises over time - the most the team will commit to Aaron Ashby in a guaranteed contract year is roughly 5.5% of payroll in the 2027 season. Given the upside found in the left arm of Aaron Ashby, every team in MLB should be willing to take that risk without a moment’s hesitation. Short of a career-ending injury, this contract is going look very good for the Brewers in years to come, just as the Peralta contract has over the past three seasons. View full article

Mark Feinsand of MLB polled a bunch of executives to see who they predict will land phenom slugger Juan Soto and one of them picked... the Brewers? Wait, what? In much more logical votes, the top vote-getter was the Padres, followed immediately by the Dodgers. Both teams make a lot of sense with a lot of young talent, good farm systems, and the willingness to pay Soto the gobs of money he's looking to land as he approaches free agency in a couple of years. Frankly, I don't think the Brewers have the horses to land Soto. They have Chourio - who is legitimately great right now - but the Nationals are likely looking for either young MLB talent or near-MLB talent, which the Brewers don't have a lot of right now, especially on the pitching side of things. And on top of the Brewers not having the horses, Milwaukee doesn't have the payroll to pay Soto into free agency, which makes this move a long-term rental. This move would force a full-scale rebuild in a couple of years after Soto leaves and an empty farm system needs to be restocked. Anyway, I thought this single vote was amusing enough to post about. View full trade rumor

I expect the Red Sox to sell. It should also be noted that not only have they fallen out of the Wild Card race a bit, they're only half a game out of last place, as the Orioles have been much better recently as the Red Sox have faltered.

Thanks for the heads-up. I'll flip over to dark mode on my phone and see if I can replicate the issue.

No. Most EVs don’t have a conventional transmission with gears. I think the Porsche uses a two speed but other than that, AFAIK all EVs are direct drive to the wheels.

Before anyone writes off an EV, I implore them to go find a model they like and test drive it. I can't see myself buying another ICE vehicle again unless it's another classic car. EVs are faster, smoother, and quieter than the equivalent ICE vehicle. From a daily driver standpoint, EVs are just better. And I say this as someone who is an avid motorcyclist and loves the sound and feel of a performance ICE vehicle. But EVs are just better driving if I'm going from point A to point B, which is 90% of my driving.

Most of this is wildly untrue, sorry. First an EV thrives in a traffic jam. The lack of wind resistance and regenerative braking increases range by a lot. If you were to drive 100 miles in traffic, it'd take a lot less juice than driving that same 100 miles at 75mph. Second, pretty much any dedicated public charger will charge an EV up to 80% in less than half an hour. I have a Chevy Volt - 55 miles range electric, then uses a gas generator - and I really regret not moving to the full-EV Chevy Bolt because I was worried about range. It's simply not a problem 95% of the time and for that other 5%, we have another car to use in those situations. I put gas in the Volt about once every two months. It'd be nice to be able to just skip over the filling station entirely instead.

And that’s fair, I probably should have been more clear with my language. When looking at prospects, I tend to clump them in small groups, I rarely go 1/2/3/4/…

And that’s fair, I probably should have been more clear with my language. When looking at prospects, I tend to clump them in small groups, I rarely go 1/2/3/4/…

That's just my personal take. It's not a dig on Quero, I just value closeness to MLB quite a bit. I'd put Chourio as #1, Frelick as #1b, then Wiemer and maybe Small in the second tier. After that, mainly due to proximity to the big leagues, are guys like Quero. And Brewer Fanatic users are pretty close to that thinking, too. After all, Quero is #8 on our prospect list. while all the other guys I mentioned are top four.

That's just my personal take. It's not a dig on Quero, I just value closeness to MLB quite a bit. I'd put Chourio as #1, Frelick as #1b, then Wiemer and maybe Small in the second tier. After that, mainly due to proximity to the big leagues, are guys like Quero. And Brewer Fanatic users are pretty close to that thinking, too. After all, Quero is #8 on our prospect list. while all the other guys I mentioned are top four.

I do not and will never understand the thinking that kept O'Neill out of Cooperstown this long.

Agreed on Chourio and Frelick unless the return was massive. And I'm hesitant to give up any top ten prospect for a rental, the return on that kind of move rarely pays off. It's basically "World Series or bust" if a front office makes that kind of move.

Agreed on Chourio and Frelick unless the return was massive. And I'm hesitant to give up any top ten prospect for a rental, the return on that kind of move rarely pays off. It's basically "World Series or bust" if a front office makes that kind of move.

Will Sammon of The Athletic takes a look at the players the Brewers might be willing to offer in trade to shore up the big league club before the August 2nd trade deadline. While we all know Jackson Chourio is the shining light of the farm system, I don't see the Brewers offering him unless the return is massive and under team control for several more seasons. Sammon points out that Milwaukee's third-tier prospects are more likely to be moved, such as Hendry Mendez or Jeferson Quero. Sitting just below Chourio the Brewers also have the likes of Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick, the latter having a very strong season in AA Biloxi. Like Chourio, I can't see the Brewers moving either without bringing back a starting player with multiple cost-controlled seasons remaining. And, of course, there's always the enigmatic Keston Hiura. Who are you most willing to part with in the farm system and which MLB players would you target to bolster a Brewers lineup that hits well but lacks top-end hitting talent? View full trade rumor

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You’re totally right. How have I been under the impression he’s an FA after 2023 for all this time?

Okay, this isn’t good. The Brewers can’t afford to lose Peterson for an extended period.

The Brewers locked up the young left-hander through his arbitration seasons with team options in 2028 and 2029 while utility IF Jace Peterson has been retroactively sent to the 10-Day Injured List. The Brewers announced today they have agreed to terms to LHP Aaron Ashby, extending him through the 2027 season with team options for 2028 and 2029. Reports are coming in that only $20,500,000 is guaranteed through his free agency years with escalators and options bringing the potential amount to $46,000,000. For a pitcher with the upside of Ashby, it’s hard to view this as anything but a great deal for the Brewers with very little assumed risk by the club. Ashby has spent the 2022 season in a flex role for the Brewers, making 12 starts and 18 total appearances. While the 24-year-old's 4.57 ERA looks unimpressive, he has swing-and-miss stuff but has been held back by control issues early in his MLB career. Never considered an elite prospect, Ashby moved through the organization in a very Brewers-esque way, displaying flashes of potential before breaking out post-Covid in AAA Nashville, posting an elite 14.2 K/9 rate in the 2021 season and later earning himself a promotion to Milwaukee. In 100.2 career MLB innings pitched, Ashby has a pedestrian 4.56 ERA - which translates to a 91 ERA+ - but has a much better-looking 3.83 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which bodes well for his future. There is obviously talent in that left arm for the Brewers to develop at the major league level, now Ashby just needs to take the next step and solidify himself in the Milwaukee rotation, which will need to make some difficult decisions this offseason with Corbin Burnes and his pending free agency after the 2024 season. Peterson to the 10-Day Injured List In less-good news, the Brewers announced that Jace Peterson has been placed on the 10-Day Injured List with a left elbow strain, retroactive to July 20th. Peterson has been instrumental to the Brewers first-place status this season, playing all over the field competently while posting his best offensive season with a 115 OPS+ and and 112 wRC+. Hopefully, this is a minor setback and due to the All-Star break, Peterson may only lose a week of play before being eligible to return to the Milwaukee lineup. View full article