UpandIn

Ok...I have a few issues with this. The first would be, how does their strikeout rate impact their BABIP? And if that IS the cause, then why is Hiura's K rate higher this year AND his BABIP rate higher? And if you're going to put it on Haines, then I really don't get it. He was there for Hiura's monster rookie year and Yelich's big 2nd season. And Haines is gone now. So I'm not sure I'm buying that one. There may just be an ideology in the organization where they simply don't preach shortening up with 2 strikes and sacrificing power(Wong has indicated as much). But that's just a 2 strike count and it seems like the issues go a bit deeper than that.

I don't know what they gave up for Bell. I think when you give up Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Susana, Woods....it's buying a Manson on 100 acres and wondering how much it costs for the old owners to leave in the living room set. It was probably something, but when they're paying the price they're paying...it's kinda meaningless at that point. I'd argue they've got 3 guys on that list who's value is at least equal to Chourio(more valuable actually as Washington wanted MLB caliber players back and they got 3 really good ones).

We appear to be on the way to non-tendering a whole lot of valuable players next year. Renfroe, I've seen Bush is already out the door in another thread! Probably why we traded Hader... Really though, I can't imagine we're going to DFA...really any of the players who are performing well. Tellez may be the closest I suppose we might...though I really doubt it. Houser if the elbow issues turned out to be worse, but as of now, maybe a Suter, Gustave, Gott, but the guys who'll be making a lot in arbitration are players who are very important and that you just don't DFA. The ones in the middle are all pretty clearly worth it. Renfroe would be traded before you'd dump a 30HR, .800 OPS RFer with his type of arm(even with some poor defensive decisions recently, mainly with regard to his inability to hit the cutoff man and his belief he can throw everyone out with that massive right arm). Hopefully in 2024 we can afford to be more pick as it pertains to who we're throwing into the OF/DH, but that supposes at least 2-3 of Frelick, Hiura, Weimer, Mitchell, Ruiz develop or Taylor shows a little more. Pretty big assumptions.

I haven't gotten much of a chance to see Rodriguez pitch. Mind giving me a little scouting report or your thoughts on why he's so high? Not asking you to "justify" it or anything, I'd just like to know a bit more about him and what his stuff looks like right now beyond the little I can find.

Again...I'm fairly certain the idea was that you'd put him through waivers and someone would claim him as the used to be able to do with revocable waivers. In that case...a team taking back his contract would definitely be the Brewers getting something.

Agreed...but I also don't really know the finer points of where they could have or should have built Miller Park or how or where SD is located with respect to their downtown. I'm sure others could speak to that. I do recall a plan or an idea that doesn't seem to have come to fruition, but wasn't there a plan in place where the Brewers would buy up the land around Miller Park/AmFam and build up commercial real-estate, build high end apartments, etc. There's certainly the room and...I'd argue the desire for it. Either way, I agree...what SD has done that's allowed them to push their payroll to compete is impressive.

I don't think anyone is inferring it's "easy," I think we're trying to pinpoint what exactly caused the change in his production. Or at least such a drastic change. Exactly. 2020 appears to have been mostly just poor luck. Again, BABIP was down 120 points from 2018 to 2020(and ~100 points below his career average). So the results may not have been there, but he was still hitting the ball, hitting it hard and hitting it into the air. What exactly happened in 2021? I don't know...but I hope you're right and he can regain some power.

Not really aggressive for Brown Jr. They usually get a few games at rookie ball and then it's off to full season ball. Frelick played 4 games(much worse K rate than Brown) and then was bumped up.

It'd been kinda leaked or prematurely reported that Kelly had been promoted to AA for the Brewers as well, correct?

Two biggest factors for me are proximity to the big leagues and upside(sometimes diametrically opposed view points). As for tools, I think they're pretty standard for most people. Position Player-Hit tool, Power, Defense Pitchers-Fastball And the BIGGEST thing I learned...don't read Joseph's Zarr's minor league thread before doing this! He's too damn enthusiastic and gets you excited about every prospect! Makes me love reading the threads, but makes this harder! Finally, my professors always told me to be more succinct. A skill I've yet to master obviously... 1-Jackson Chourio-CF(2B?) ETA-2024 Seems easy to me. He’s a prospect unlike any we’ve had since I can recall. Blue chip bonus baby has come out and just absolutely crushed it in LowA, then continued in HiA. This is a player who could win an MVP. And IS he strictly an OFer? Started off as a MIFer, moved due to an arm issue. The intent was to move him back, but I don’t know if his bat is going to allow for it. Unless this guy’s Ceiling is insane. Hit 70, power 60, run 60, arm 45, field 60 2-Sal Frelick-CF ETA 2023 I’m quickly developing a newfound affinity for guys who can just put the ball in play. After years of arguing strikeouts don’t matter…well, that’s why the league is at a 50 year low. Frelick is the type of guy who can change the identify of this team with his bat to ball skills, plate discipline and he’s got power and elite speed. Prototypical #2 hitter in my mind, but if with his OB skills, leadoff. 3-Brice Turang-SS/2B/CF ETA-Sept/’23 He was #1 coming into the season for me and he hasn’t dropped because of his play. Aggressively moved throughout the system, he’s held his own at each level and now he’s starting to show his power. I see a little Trea Turner in there. The defense will play all over the place. If he can show 12-15 HR a year power, he’s an All-Star. Great speed will help out his BA/OBP, his plate discipline…I think he’s the leadoff hitter in front of Frelick in the near future. 4-Joey Weimer-CF….but probably RF. ETA-‘23 I see a faster Jay Buhner with a little Kirk Gibson in the stance and set up. The only question is all the moving parts to his swing, will he be able to hit .250-.280? If he does that, I think he’s a AS caliber RFer. I think it's a bit more likely he's going to hit close to ~.230, but with his pure power and tools, if he clicks, he's going to be a star. 5-Garrett Mitchell-CF ETA ‘23 Just another prototypical OF prospect. The size, the speed, the arm. Another guy who profiles as a #1/#2 hitter to me unless the power comes. But he’s an OB machine, good hit tool and the other 3 tools are elite. Highest upside among position players in my mind outside of a certain 18 year old kid who’s destroying HiA at the moment. Biggest concerns are his ability to stay on the field. 6-Tyler Black-2B/CF ETA late ’23-24 60 Hit tool…he walks and he can hit the ball and he should move quickly. Again, On-base skills, good hit tool. Love that the Brewers have these guys coming up. Hopefully in a couple years we’ll be able to re-write the, “but the Brewers can’t develop hitters,” label many have put on this current regime. 7-Jeferson Quero-C ETA 2025 Advanced defensive catcher who’s hitting the ball well at 19 years old in A ball. Has the 60 arm, 60 grade on his defense and he’s progressing with the bat well. 2025 may seem quick for a catcher that young, but he’s advanced defensively and that’s…extremely rare. 8-Robert Glasser-LHPer 2023 Had to re-write this one and move him up. 1st start in AA for the Brewers looked exceptionally refined. Touches mid 90s fastball, 3 advanced pitches. Could play a role for the Brewers in the BP or as a swing man as soon as next year and hopefully will end up filling in one of the vacated slots in the rotation when Burnes/Woodruff enter free agency and earn the GDP of a mid-sized European Country in a couple years. 9-Jacob Misiorowski-RHP ETA 2025 Another JUCO kid with a big, projectable frame who has dominant, TOR, back of the BP type stuff. Sits in the mid 90s, hits 102, low 90s slider and a curve ball that so far as I can tell is a bit lose and not a true 3rd pitch just yet, but at 20 years old and with a 6’7 190LB frame, still a lot of projection left…and the Brewers obviously believe in the pure stuff or they wouldn’t have gone a million over slot to bring him into the fold. 10-Ethan Small-LHP MLB Not as down on him as others. His big-league results haven’t been there just yet, he’s not a TOR type arm, but he’s advanced, I think his floor is a #5 starter…and 6 years of that is extremely valuable. Upside of a #3. Already 25, only thing left for him to do is attack hitters a little better. Still holding out some hope he can find that extra velocity that seemingly every Brewers pitching prospect has, but just seems like a smart, crafty lefty who’ll give you 30 starts a year. 11-Eric Brown Jr-2B/SS ETA Late 2024/2025 Another athletic, up the middle College bat who has a good hit tool, a priority in recent drafts. 1st round pick, rated ~35 according to most pre-draft reports so far as I’ve been able to see. We’ll see if they do anything with his swing or set up, but good bat speed, great BB/K ratio. 12-Esteury Ruiz-CF/2B Don’t know much about Ruiz, but just looking at the numbers…beyond the more eye popping ones, he’s walked 55 times vs 67 strikeouts this season across AA/AAA and the Big Leagues. Showing good power, great bat skills, exceptional speed. A little lower than he may be if he’d been in our system because I just haven’t seen it. That said, articles with headlines like; “Can Esteury Ruiz Save the San Diego Padres Outfield?,” certainly are encouraging! This was from less than a month ago. So while it will be tough for people to separate Ruiz from the Josh Hader trade, I hope they can as he appears to be a very nice young prospect. 13- Felix Valerio-2B -Anyone scouts think has a FV of 70 for a hit tool is someone I consider intriguing. His good speed and then average defense at 2B…and I think he can play some SS, 3B, a future utility. But if he develops that hit tool into a 70 with his ability to make contact and draw walks, that COULD be a special player. Perhaps a Marwin Gonzalez. Someone capable of playing all 3 IF spots (sans 1B, though it’d be interesting at 5’7) as well as CF, but a poor arm suggests he’ll be a 2B primarily. Bug again, positional versatility and great bat control and good plate discipline. 14-Hendry Mendez-CF ANOTHER young left-handed bat with a potential 60 hit tool. Another player who, unlike the Brewers teams of the past couple years (along with MLB at large) Mendez appears to be a player who makes contact and strikes out at a very low rate. I appreciate I’m likely higher on him than others, but 51/54 K/BB ratio for a rail thin 6’2 lefty who’s making good, solid contact already at in A ball? I’m a fan. I see a guy who could be an Andrew Benintendi. A guy who hits for a high average, is a solid, but unspectacular defender, but hopefully with a bit more power. 15-Abner Uribe-RHP As I said, I value upside. 103 on the FB and a potential plus-plus slider. Injuries are a concern, control is a concern, but if he can get the ball over the plate, he could be an overpowering reliever. 16-Carlos Rodriguez CF Absolute burner with a good hit tool who takes pitches. High upside and with traits that have a high floor. May not hit for power, but there’s nothing more valuable than the ability to get on base is the most valuable ability in sports and he’s showing he can do just that. 17-Robert Moore-2B Elite defender, switch hitter. Still just 20 and looks like he’s got more power than expected from a 5’9 frame. Following in the mold of recent picks, he’s a hitter with a high walk rate, doesn’t chase much. Questionable arm strength will likely keep him from playing SS/3B regularly, but quickness and instincts should allow him to field each position well enough to be a option as a utility man. Again, very underrated role. Not everyone is going to be a 1st division all-star starter. Nobody uses his roster as well as Craig Counsell in my opinion and Moore should fit well moving forward. His switch hitting is an added bonus. 18-Zavier Warren 3B/SS/2B/1B/C-Utility Man Extraordinaire I may be a prisoner of the moment on this one, but Warren has been crushing it. He works the count, draws a lot of walks, hits for power…and if he can ride this late hot streak to AA, he’ll be knocking on the doorstep of the Major League team. Big arm, good power and one of the few notable corner IFers in the system. I think he can stay at 3rd. Catcher seems to be an emergency type situation and mostly abandoned at this point…but it’s always nice to have an emergency catcher who’s got at least some experience catching. 19--Hedbert Perez-OF Perez was the guy last year getting the Jackson Chourio buzz, but it was clearly a bit pre-mature. I’ve seen where his lofty placement on some lists last year or coming into this year caused Perez to press a bit. But still just 19, the compact left-handed swing still has massive upside and he has a smooth, sweet swing still has me believing he can be a future contributor. 20-Russell Smith LHP 6’9 lefty who has been a bit uninspiring thus far at Wisconsin, particularly for a 4 year College pitcher, but he did miss a year from TJ, then Covid. Solid command, not overpowering, but potential swing man, #5 starter/reliever. 21-Logan Henderson RHP Another Juco pitcher. Another pitcher who doesn’t have a ton of upside, but has 3 pitches right now which should help him work his way through the minors. Similar to Smith in his profile, but about 10 inches shorter and reportedly not much projection left. Not really sure where to slot in a 2nd round 22-Yeison Perez-1B/RF/LF Still in DSL, but he’s absolutely raking. A LHed bat in an unconventional build and lacking for a defensive home, but the DH has come to the NL. 23-Mario Feliciano-C Haven’t seen him defensively in a while. He’s hitting the ball pretty well in AAA…and has at most stops on his way through the system. 24-Justin Jarvis RHP I’m a fan. I’ve got to see him this year and I thought he looked like a guy who’s stuff could play up as a multi-inning reliever and sit in the 96-98 range(projecting) or if he can refine his command, not his control, and work down in the zone a bit more, he could be a solid #3. Next year will be big for him. 25-Victor Casteneda-RHP Mid 90s, he’s consistently performed well. Where I may be a BIT skeptical is his reliance on the splitter. That’s generally a pitch that causes arm trouble. That said, mid 90s fastball with good movement. 3rd pitch lagging behind but isn’t it always with young prospects. AGAIN, another pitcher who’s going to start in the BP and will get his chance to earn a starting job at some point. 26-Eduardo Garcia-SS Plus defender who can hit for power and plays elite defense. Still just 19 and up to HiA 27-Alexander Cornielle -RHP 28-Jesus Chirinos C/1B 29-Ernesto Martinez 1B/CF/Cody Bellinger of the Minor Leagues I really like Martinez…but he’s gotta clean up his stroke. Walks a lot, big tools, but older for the level and has kinda leveled out. 30-Hobie Harris RHP You throw 101…I’m gonna get excited. Not really a traditional prospect, but the Brewers have enough of a track record of figuring out how to get pitchers to maximize their stuff…and 100MPH fastball is a whooole lot of stuff. 31-Cam Devanney SS/2B 32-Carlos Rodriguez RHP 33-Stiven Cruz RHP 34-Joe Gray Jr OF Could click at any time…but I’m losing faith. 35-Jace Avina I don’t know enough about this kid, but the few at-bats I’ve seen from him this year, I like the swing a whole lot and he LOOKS like the type of kid who could be in the top 10-15 in a few months from now. I feel like there are another 15-20 guys worth mentioning. And after the top ~10 there's a pretty significant drop off, then again after 14, but I didn't want to break it down into tiers. But this is the deepest I can recall the system, and we're really starting to see the fruits of the Brewers focus on Latin America.

Well that's exactly it. He's publicly talked about his back issues...his WHOLE career. Someone DID make a point that maybe that knee injury is still in his head...but I'm a bit skeptical of that. Now treat the rest of this post like some idiot who's does not have an MD in front of his name is speaking/writing(because that's who is)... I've now had 17 surgeries. Ankle, several knee, hip, elbow, wrist, foot, femur...all but 3 in my teens or 20s. Most of them due to sports, but a couple stupid things along the way. Everyone is different, I get that. But bones heal and they heal stronger. If you break the bone in the joint...like the ball in your femur, that can cause most lasting issues, but he had a clean fracture, it wasn't in little pieces. Now...I went through all that and I had ONE surgery that really cared the hell outta me. A pinched nerve in my neck. One that wasn't really causing pain or range of motion issues, but caused headaches. So I got that fixed and that was...ABSOLUTELY miserable. So take this for what it's worth, it's all anecdotal, but just having a VERY minor neck and then ONCE in my life a very minor pulled muscle in my back and I felt like such a wimp. You'd think I'd broken my back in some industrial accident. There's no MD in front of my name, I wasn't a professional athlete...but based on a pretty lengthy injury history and MOST of the time rehabbing them to come back, ACLs, broken ankles, wrists, those all heal and you come all the way back. Shoulder...that's never been the same and I couldn't imagine living with back pain. I'd much rather have gone under the knife for everything I have, than one degenerative disc issue, or anything with the back. https://www.mlb.com/news/christian-yelich-exits-with-knee-injury He gets up, he walks it off. I just don't think that was that devastating injury. What it looks like to me is that he's not quite generating the same torque with his core and getting out in front and trusting his hands. But I've also gone back and forth looking at the 2019 swing vs the 2020, 2021 and 2022 swings and they've looked mostly similar, just not quite as much torque.

God no. Reyes seems like he could play DH/1B, RF/LF. Definitely wouldn't throw Renfore in there at CF though.

Reyes career line through '21; .260/.325/.503 line with a 121 OPS+ over 1540 PAs 280 PAs(complied at the age of 26). Reyes also has a career line of .269/.348/.472 with a .820 OPS vs lefties. WILL he help? I don't know. Seems kinda foolish to dismiss it out of hand because he's struggled this year. Especially for a guy who's...again, still in his age 26 season(just turned 27). So just now hitting his prime. Maybe you get the guy who hit 37, 30 in the past two full seasons he played. Maybe you get nothing special and he's really NOT an upgrade. Doesn't feel like the worst idea to roll the dice here, but I suspect he'll get claimed before he gets to the NL and if not, before he gets to the Brewers on the waiver wire.

I'm also curious just how many payers sign with the Dodgers/Yankees because...they're the Dodgers or Yankees. A lot of LA prospects, Cuban prospects...even without the limitless pools.

His back

Perhaps, but SD is in a pretty healthy place financially...from what I understand. Just repeating what I've heard, the Pads got the team, the Park and then invested heavily in real estate around the park(apartments, etc....). They then paid that debt down as much as they could and they long had the plan of paying it off, then spending big. A few years ago they got a lot of heat when they tried to open their books and show their fans their plans. They also own their own part of a TV deal and beyond that...I don't know. I know it's a LOT more expensive to go to a Padres game than a Brewers game and their owner is worth about 5X what Attanasio is worth. I also get the feeling that Stearns is the more conservative one and that Attanasio isn't the one reigning him in...but that's just based on the interview Attanasio did and how he's operated in the past(signing Garza, Suppan, pushing for Darvish...etc...).

1-Stearns is under contract through next year at least. He MAY have been extended. They're not required to announce that and they've been quiet about front office contracts before. 2-Never heard that Stearns has to convince Attanasio to sign Cain. BUT...it'd seem stranger that it was about the payroll if they'd already offered Yu Darvis a much larger contract. Beyond those two issues...I believed Mark Attanasio when he spoke. That Arnold and Stearns called him and told him they had a trade THEY wanted to make with Hader and that the Brewers had payroll room for any player on the market.

Joseph C Tsai But yeah, Stearns isn't punting, he's not sabotaging anything.

WAR doesn't take into account anything in the past. I don't think people appreciate how much offense is down across the league. You get on base, you've got value. If Yelich is going to have a ~.370 OBP for the duration of this contract, I'm never gonna love it, but he'll always have SOME value.

I don't think Counsell would ever allow his emotions to filter down to the team. I think the whole "message to the team," is a bit overblown. Again, I remember getting swept in a 5 game series vs the Pirates and a terrible stretch at almost exactly the same point in this season in 2018. I think they're playing poorly right now. I think they'll figure it out...or maybe they won't. But I don't think it'll be because Counsell is in his feelings about the trade and there is a rift between he and Stearns.

Imagine Burnes trying to catch a comebacker with his right hand and the Brewers extend him through arbitration and then 3 more years. I REALLY doubt you'd find a lot of fans upset about that. Or just make it apples to apples. He's running over to first to cover and he breaks a bone in his leg. It's still lock him up to a below market extension. I still don't buy it was the knee injury that "ruined" Yelich and his power. Maybe that plays a larger factor, but you look at 2020, I think it was more just bad luck. 94 MPH exit velocity, launch angle in between '18 and '19. ISO Slugging pretty high, BABIP took about a 110 point drop. 2021 is when you see the stark contrast begin. It's really just bad luck in my opinion. With the benefit of hindsight, you'd OBVIOUSLY have traded him.

Has he though? 2018 when we lost in 7 to the Dodgers, Aguilar was an All Star, 3.4 WAR. Cooper just...wasn't going to be a part of this offense. If we had him, we'd be talking about needing to replace him and constantly tinkering trying to find someone...pretty much as we have, but the one real deep run we've had, he wouldn't have made it past that team(I don't think). Thames was also around. 51 HRs out of those two alone. There just wasn't a place we could have really used Cooper.

I assumed this was a hypothetical based on the assumption revocable waivers still existed. Obviously there's no upside to doing this without revocable waivers. If there WERE revocable waivers...I'm pretty sure he'd go through and the Brewers would be popping champagne bottles IF he were claimed... (Edited...should have added the "if he were claimed" to the last part). This is getting more than juuust a bit grating. First of all, extending Burnes/Woody...doing that should have NO effect on whether Yelich is on the roster? So how much money you're spending shouldn't have any effect on how much money you can spend? Go buy a 10 million dollar lake house like the guy making 1M a year does despite the fact that you're making 100K a year. Live like a "big boy?" That's the Brewers. Mark A isn't just sitting there like an old miser hoarding money. The Brewers get literally about 1/10th the money the large market teams do in their local TV money alone. So no, it's not "that simple," unless you choose to ignore...little things like facts. Also...I don't get how it matters that Yelich wasn't a FA? They gave him 200M+. They gave Cain 5/80 They're payroll isn't why they didn't add a bat, but there are realities that exist that...ya may not like, but it doesn't make them any less real. You also don't have to like MLB and the way the system is set up, but the one thing I'm absolutely certain about...if you complain about it enough, it'll get back to Mark Attanasio and he'll just find another 70M a year so they can extend Woodruff AND Burnes long term.

Yeah, but...the thing here is you always know the backend of those deals, you're not getting the same player. So the fact that he's still producing, just sans the power...that's a good thing. What's that? This isn't the backend? This is the FIRST year of said extension and we'll be paying him through 2042? (Getting that acid taste in my mouth right now...just give me a moment....)

Same here. I'm still refining ~18-35(it gets tough)...but I had Brown at ~12 IIRC and Misiorowski in the top 10. I'm always going to put guys who can throw 102 with a 2nd pitch that CAN be nasty high on my list. Even if there's not a whole lot of tangible evidence at this level yet to validate that ranking. But hell, this is all projection...so prioritizing upside over the likelihood of just making it, it tracks with how I view prospects. I'll add...I was VERY excited to read the reviews of Gasser's 1st start...I think he'll get a late adjustment from 12th to maybe 9th.