UpandIn

Ok, so now we have Burnes, Woodruff, Arcia, Hiura, Ashby, Peralta, and Nelson(who'd be probably on his option years). Tell me where the downside would be? And it's never(almost never) 8 years. It's almost always 6 MAYBE 7 years and then a couple of team options. You extend those players, you're coming out SOOO far ahead, it's not even funny. Rarely when you extend players at that point is it a big risk. If it doesn't work out, it's a pittance compared to what a normal FA contract is. You sign Contreras now, you're probably looking at a 5 year 35M deal with a couple of option years in the ~15M range. Maybe he says no. But you try. And that's what I take issue with...we haven't even tried with Burnes according to him. Initially said they didn't approach him after his Cy Young season, then said they haven't offered any extensions. You have to have faith in your ability to self scout and then SOME risk tolerance as players can get hurt. And sometimes they don't work out, but again, almost never are they backbreaking contracts unless you're talking about a potential Wander/Julio type extension...which is what we'd potentially be looking at with Chourio. I get what you're saying...I remember people were using Segura(and Villar) back when he was in Milwaukee as a guy we shouldn't extend because he had struggled and Villar as someone we tried and it didn't work out. But even Hiura. We're 3 years into the deal. We might have 3 years left and option years? That's not gonna kill you. Especially if you'd...as I suggested gotten Burnes, Woodruff or Adames(not sure if the later two were ever offered, but Adames came here at a point when you'd have needed to give him a bigger deal).

No, it's not the players on the field. I just have trouble seeing those owners agreeing to that. The logistics would be difficult just for starters. You'd have to have two broadcasting partners(one primary one anyway). Or even 3 like the NFL with Fox, CBS and ESPN(lesser degree Amazon Prime). I think expecting that of MLB owners is too much. I think what Mara and Rooney did was incredible and IIRC, Al Davis fought him on it(though they now benefit from it). They sacrificed for the league...otherwise the Giants, Jets, Cowboys, the...Commanders, pretty much just the MLB big markets with a few places where Football is bigger, they'd have the same competitive advantage.

This has literally never made sense. They didn't give Bonilla deferred money to keep him, they literally did it to get rid of him without having to pay him. So...in this case, going fully Bobby Bonilla would be giving Burnes away and then paying his ~11M over from about 2030-2060. Maybe they'd go Max Scherzer who got 110M in deferred money or Strasburg who was getting 70M. The first step in extending Burnes. Offering Burnes an extension. The second step...seeing what his counter is. The first two lead to the 3rd. Negotiate or determine it's not likely.

And the bigger market teams will NEVER agree to share all their revenue. It's why the NFL has blown past MLB. Wellington Mara, owner of the Giants...sacrificed for the wellness of the league and now they're signing 110B dollar TV deals, they're getting 3B more a year for the Red Zone Package... MLB has a team that's going to spend around 450M while there will be other teams spending 45. It's kinda like CFB in resource allocations.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I'm not saying give up on him as a starter. I'm just suggesting he could be used in the Hader role in the short term. We have him for 7 more years if we want him...wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to use him in 2-3 inning stints a couple times a week. I'm thinking when Peralta starts to begin with, but you wouldn't be tied to that. He clearly has elite, true ace type stuff, so I wouldn't think they'd be giving up on him as a starter long term. But if you have the big 3, Lauer, Houser, maybe Gasser/Small and you bring in another starter or someone like Knarr gets called up? It's just one idea. I don't think anyone can really guess what this pen is going to look like in Sept. There is SUCH an enormous range of potential outcomes, it'd be foolish to try and guess.

Good call. 60 FB, 60 SL. There are just SO many guys who could potentially break out...it's impossible to guess who actually will. But he's definitely one. So is Ashby. Maybe they make him a multi-inning reliever?

In fairness, most of the time when they've done this, it hasn't worked out. But with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade an OFer for Pitching, it made more sense it'd be for a young, controllable reliever. Felix Bautista would look SO good in this pen...unlikely as that may be.

Bullpens are weird, but this is the hole right now...IMO. Uribe could certainly come in and just gain confidence and become a stud. That's hardly unusual. He could be the closer by the end of this year. Our #7 Prospect(per fangraphs) Justin Topa-70 grade FB, 60 grade slider; Struggles staying healthy have been a problem, but he's also got the stuff to be a late inning reliever. Two guys who were position prospects who moved to the mound, the later after being a top ~50 prospect. Lucas Ecerg...less likely he could become a late inning man, but pitchers with his stuff can figure it out quickly(which is a common theme here and it only takes 1 or 2 to do so the pen looks entirely different). Javy Guerra can hit 100 and had the stuff to be a late inning reliever. High spin rates, he was dominant last year in AAA. He was a top 50 prospect at a position player, but also has the stuff to be a SU man and a closer. Justin Yeager, part of the...robbery that was the Contreras trade throws in the upper 95-98(+2MPH) having added velocity last year per scouting reports, he's throwing his slider in the 87-90 up 3 MPH...and apparently a high spin rate, but he nibbles too much. Cam Robinson, sits mid 90s, his FB has a 60 grade, two other above average pitchers(potentially) and he had 63% ground ball rate. Gus Varland was apparently hitting 98 when he moved to the BP. Exceptionally unlucky last year with a .374 BABIP against him. Good strikeout rate and was pitching well in a relievers role. Ethan Small-Apparently hits 96 in shorter stints? I don't know, haven't seen it, but he's got a 70 grade change, struggled badly last year with his command as he was nibbling too much, but his fastball is deceptive and he's had a good curve in the past. He wouldn't be my pick, but he could certainly play a role in a as multi-inning reliever. Or hell, if he's ACTUALLY touching 96 in shorter stints, he could be an effective 7th inning man depending on match-ups? These are just some of the pitchers(the most likely, but still, only some) who could find themselves pitching in the late innings of playoff games or contributing in some significant way...or they never make the 26 and are marginal AAA relievers. That's in addition to all the pitchers already listed. If feels like good bullpens come together through a couple anchors and then trial and error. We lost a big anchor next year...so it's sure be nice if between Williams, Bush, Uribe, Cousins, we could get a couple of anchors.

I get that, but I think the fact that they've been able to handle lefties in the minors at least shows they can stay in on them. They're not bailing out like so many lefties do. At that point, it's just a matter of contact IMO. If Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, if they can put the ball in play vs lefties, they're going to be alright. They may only carry a .680 OPS, but I could see it being a .330/.350 type line for Mitchell or Turang. That's...IF they are capable of doing that. Mitchell is the one I'm the most worried about. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he had a big year. We have a mountain of question marks. Will Winker get back to being a .300/.400/.550 line Will Adames be able to get the walk rate back over 10% in addition to the power and defense? Both Adames and Urias hit into poor luck. Will the shift rules help the Brewers more than most teams? With Turang playing 2B, a plus defensive SS, will he be able to cover enough ground in case he struggles to hit? Or will he just keep on hitting pretty well as he's going to be a 23 year old rookie. Will Frelick be able to strike out once every 200 ABs? Can Wiemer make the adjustments? Contreras do what he did last year in a loaded ATL lineup in Milwaukee when he's expected to get another ~150 PAs and DH on some days? Who else are we going to add? Can Toro or Perkins or Miller break out and be productive ML hitters? There are a ton of questions, but we've got enough options and talent and I think the rule changes will help us. I think our defense is going to be drastically improved save the most important position(C). We'll see if we can work our magic with him as we've done with past catchers. And I think there's a good chance Ashby steps up and becomes a potential 3rd ace. He's that talented and he should have high expectations this year. I also think we've got ~20-30M in payroll room and who knows how that manifests.

I'd want them to eat 4-5M. I like that he's got good splits vs lefties. That's...really the first thing I"m looking at for any potential addition at this point. I think he'd be best served as a 1B/DH vs good lefties. And we could throw him a Valerio in order to do so...he has some value. I don't know, I liked him. He also provides some protection against Turang struggling. But I wouldn't make this signing if it meant Turang wasn't going to get the lions share of the ABs at 2B. I'd do it so we could kinda rotate Escobar around.

Agreed. I like Adames...you can't commit 170 to him...and I really don't think you'd have to. People are looking at these FA contracts and acting like something's changed. NOTHING has changed. The Brewers still have team control for 2 more years, so comparing what Carlos Rodon got as an Apples to Apples comp is silly. How about Walker Buehler. Lets use him as a comp. He's been pretty much on par with Burnes. Same age, he's been an ace. Was dominant when they won the WS. Being a FA RIGHT NOW and being 400 innings away from being a FA is a pretty big difference. Tyler Glasnow is another. Not on the same level, but a dominant pitcher with just overpowering stuff who was likely set to get a massive payday. Even Rodon himself. No, the Brewers CANNOT sign any of these elite FA's to contracts. They can afford to extend players who are elite and still under team control for 2 years. But obviously as the team control diminishes, the chances to extend diminishes. I think last year was the time to sign Burnes, but I don't think it's nearly as unlikely as some are suggesting. You have to actually make the offer and make an attempt and it's possible the Brewers know it'll be expensive either way and they're just planning on making a run and then trading Burnes, Woody, Adames. Burnes came out and said he hasn't been approached, but that he'd like to stay in Milwaukee(not that saying he wants to stay here means that much, a contract extension would tell you just how much he wants to).

If Ashby can just refine a few things, it's entirely plausible to see him jump into the Corbin Burnes tier. His stuff is so nasty and electric, that it's just about working on his pitch sequence and maturing as a pitcher. Now...not everyone does that. Wily Peralta is a pitcher who had the upside of an ace. In fact, in the broadest of terms, I think there are usually half a dozen guys at least in every farm system who legitimately have "ace" upside. That takes so much to get there, but Ashby is healthy, he's overpowering and now he's on the precipice. It's unlikely he reaches the top of his ceiling, but...it's certainly exciting to think about what we could have with Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby/Lauer...and then Gasser could force his way into the discussion which could help the Brewers at the deadline possibly use a pitcher like Lauer for a significant upgrade elsewhere. Of course we all know how rare it is for a staff to make it through a season healthy.

Myers makes a LOT of sense. Turner of course does as well, but I see him back in LA on a ~8M deal. I suspect it'd take substantially more to get him to leave LA. I believe the Brewers could still add ~20M to the payroll this year(not a 20M a year type deal, 20 this year) give or take. More perhaps if it was a true difference maker and not just a nice sell to the fans like McCutchen. If they do or not...I don't care. They've already added an AS Catcher for nothing(in terms of money, Ruiz had value to us obviously). I also like May or Fulmer. Or Lugo any can be had in the 6-8M range.

Range Factor while in the minors? That's what we're using to determine who's a CFer and who's not? So if Frelick payed behind pitchers who racked up more strikeouts...he's not as good in the field? Frelick was a DPOY in the ACC in CF. He's been a CFer coming up. Ruiz was a 2B. The only real reason so far to believe Ruiz can be a plus CFer is...he's really fast. 80 speed vs 70 speed. One has to develop as a CFer and the other doesn't...according to the scouts. I've never seen Ruiz play CF, so I don't know how good he is. I do know how many times he caught a ball in a small sample size in the minors and how many times he threw people out? That's not gonna tell ya much.

Yeah...but it really does. A player switching teams in and of itself doesn't mean anything other than...they've switched teams. Max Scherzer has been on 3 teams in his last 3 years. Is there literally ANY meaning in that? It's just a bad and kinda lazy argument. It's the same one he used with Renfroe. He just changes the number of teams and or years and that's his entire argument. Or how about Riuz? He's now on his 3rd organization in just a few months. Obviously if he was any good...he wouldn't be traded Lots of players change teams for a lot of reasons. Team control, number of options. Small market teams sign players hoping they'll have a good season so they can flip them. If that's the extent of your argument as to why a player isn't good...it's not a good argument.

And...again, that he's just here to annoy people. LOL...I mean, c'mon. We got a trade that's not only gotten universal praise by people who know Baseball and...pretty much everyone on this forum except for...ONE person. And again, this, "well he's been on X number of teams in X years," is...the dumbest logic. Who cares? Look at how a guy produces. If 5 teams acquired him, 5 teams wanted him. It's like taking a date to a 5 star restaurant, going to see a great show on show/movie/play, whatever...and then you ask for their opinion and they complain that the Uber took the long way home. THAT'S their takeaway. Some people just focus on the negatives...

Better than average? He's pretty much the definition of average. 102 WRC+ last year, 104 OPS+. Projected to be at 98 WRC+ and he's solid defensively, but he's not a great defender. He was out there because we just didn't have options last year. He's just a guy. I didn't say he had value, I said he was a 4th or 5th OFer. He's got some value or I wouldn't have said he's a 4th or 5th OFer, but a guy with a OBP in the .280s who's not an elite defender, hit lefties alright, doesn't have great speed... I just said he was a 4th or 5th OFer and not much more. Am I wrong?

I don't think you're missing anything, it's just a little out of context. Clancy suggested the Brewers "flip" Winker at the deadline as Wiemer and Taylor could likely match his production. That doesn't make sense to me and I was agreeing with @jakedood who questioned that logic. You trade Winker if he's having a year like he did in 2021 and the Brewers are just bad and everything goes wrong I guess. Beyond that, if he's having a good year, then you want him. Presumably we're competitive. If he's having a repeat of last year, nobody would want him, so what's the point? As for Wiemer, I think it's possible he could force his way onto this roster. I think he's got a Jay Buhner with better speed type upside. I wouldn't count on that next year, but...it's certainly plausible. And if he does, they can make room for him in the OF. Presumably in RF with Frelick in CF and Mitchell...who I'm not completely sold on. I don't think it's a stretch that Wiemer ends up being better than Mitchell and he's a very different type of hitter than Frelick. One that we could really use. But he's such a wild-card, I wouldn't be really factoring him into the plans. A great start to the year and you can re-evaluate, and it'd be great given we've still got pretty serious issues vs lefties, but the point was...there's no need to worry about flipping Winker and there's no reason to swap out his possible production for Wiemer and Taylor's as it doesn't match.

Agreed. I don't care if in 10 years we look back and Arnold has a big negative WAR from this trade. If you use the benefit of hindsight, this game would be easy. At this time, right now, this trade made so much sense, it seems too good to be true. Maybe NOW we can stop hearing about this Hader trade?

I'm with you...with the sole exception of the Mitchell LA thing. He's got a level swing. I personally don't think adding the loft to it makes much sense at this point as I think THAT seldom works out. If a guy hits for average, gets on base, can steal bases, screw the launch angle. This is what the Brewers are going for after all, right? Lefties who can hit for average and get on base? He's gotta cut his K rate way down, but I'm not real worried about that just yet. Anyway, if Winker comes back next year...just to his career averages, there's absolutely no reason to move him. If he doesn't, well...then there's still none because who'd want him? If Wiemer and Taylor can produce next year...AWESOME. They can play RF and give us the RHed bats we need. That'd ideally be in addition to, not in subtraction of Winker. They're very different. Winker is a DH only. Yelich getting more out in front? Yelich just needs to get the ball in the air more and...well, it's been 3 years and I don't see it changing. I think his BA goes up a bit next year just like a lot of players. 50 year low in BA in MLB forced these changes. It'll help us, but it'll help a lot of players. Taylor is a 4th or 5th OFer who is not a very good hitter and he's not a great defender. In a perfect world, Wiemer takes the RF position and has a huge rookie season, but his swing, the holes in it. He may struggle to adjust to MLB pitching.

Well...another RHed bat. Doesn't have to be Haniger, but someone who can hit LHPing. We're still missing that from our lineup(though not nearly as much as we were to start the day!

And Arnold talked about the money saved and retaining some flexibility. I like that we've added a lot of pitchers with big fastballs who COULD maybe develop into high leverage relievers, we added a Catcher who hits LHPing about as well as anyone. We've got lefties with speed who get on base in Frelick(yes, I'm counting him), Yelich, Mitchell...maybe...if he can cut the Ks way down. Adames has historically walked at a higher rate. Lefties will benefit more from the shift rules. Tellez is a guy who specifically should(as well as Yelich). I don't want to keep kicking this dead horse, so I'll just say a Renfroe LIKE bat and a little good luck and this lineup could look exceptional. And all it could take next year is Wiemer having one of those giant rookie years similar to Hiura or maybe a Haniger signs to play RF if times goes on and he's still affordable. LPH CF-Frelick C-Contreras LF-Yelich RF-Haniger DH-Winker SS-Adames 1B-Tellez 3B-Brosseau 2B-Urias RHP- CF-Frelick SS-Adames LF-Yelich DH-Winker 1B-Tellez RF-Mitchell C-Narvaez 2B-Turang 3B-Urias It's a stretch, but MAYBE teams are skeptical of Haniger's health and he wants to try and rebuild his value for a year. I think it's possible he could spend a year trying to rebuild his value. And it's unlikely Narvaez comes back, but for a couple million, I'd roll the dice on Omar and if Haniger is on the market long enough to supress his value. Otherwise...I'd just try and find a stopgap RHed OFer. They're generally not that hard to come by. If Winker can get back to his pre '22 form, Adames to his '21 production, the shift helps LHed hitters, particularly those with speed...this could be a very good offense. Still a little work to do, but that Contreras trade sure as hell changes the outlook. A big time bat vs lefties and for cheap...it likely puts other things on the table that otherwise weren't. Especially since we didn't have to go and spend for a guy like Vazquez.

??? "There's not a team out there that wouldn't have the other Contreras brother's production." LOL...what does Wilson Contreras even have to do with this? It's like getting excited the Brewers got a young, 24 year old AS catcher and saying, "yeah, but that's not a team that wouldn't rather have Adley Rutschman." So what? Also, the "other Contreras" went for 5 years 87M and is 30 years old. The one we got...as part of the lesser of the two prospects in the Hader trade, he was...what's the word...uh...BETTER last year offensively. https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=contrwi02&p1yrfrom=2022&type=b&player_id1=contrwi01&p2yrfrom=2022&sum=0&request=1 Oh, and he's also one of the top hitters vs LHPers in Baseball last year on a 100 Win team. So yeah, I think there are teams in baseball would rather have William Contreras production. I think every single one of them would rather have it than spending ~90M on a C who's 6 years older. I'm also curious how you know it's not a franchise altering move? Don't we generally know AFTER the fact? 11 pages. Universal agreement...almost. But you kinda let the cat outta the bag a few weeks back when you basically said you're just a contrarian because it's entertaining.