UpandIn

Ok, so now we have Burnes, Woodruff, Arcia, Hiura, Ashby, Peralta, and Nelson(who'd be probably on his option years). Tell me where the downside would be? And it's never(almost never) 8 years. It's almost always 6 MAYBE 7 years and then a couple of team options. You extend those players, you're coming out SOOO far ahead, it's not even funny. Rarely when you extend players at that point is it a big risk. If it doesn't work out, it's a pittance compared to what a normal FA contract is. You sign Contreras now, you're probably looking at a 5 year 35M deal with a couple of option years in the ~15M range. Maybe he says no. But you try. And that's what I take issue with...we haven't even tried with Burnes according to him. Initially said they didn't approach him after his Cy Young season, then said they haven't offered any extensions. You have to have faith in your ability to self scout and then SOME risk tolerance as players can get hurt. And sometimes they don't work out, but again, almost never are they backbreaking contracts unless you're talking about a potential Wander/Julio type extension...which is what we'd potentially be looking at with Chourio. I get what you're saying...I remember people were using Segura(and Villar) back when he was in Milwaukee as a guy we shouldn't extend because he had struggled and Villar as someone we tried and it didn't work out. But even Hiura. We're 3 years into the deal. We might have 3 years left and option years? That's not gonna kill you. Especially if you'd...as I suggested gotten Burnes, Woodruff or Adames(not sure if the later two were ever offered, but Adames came here at a point when you'd have needed to give him a bigger deal).

No, it's not the players on the field. I just have trouble seeing those owners agreeing to that. The logistics would be difficult just for starters. You'd have to have two broadcasting partners(one primary one anyway). Or even 3 like the NFL with Fox, CBS and ESPN(lesser degree Amazon Prime). I think expecting that of MLB owners is too much. I think what Mara and Rooney did was incredible and IIRC, Al Davis fought him on it(though they now benefit from it). They sacrificed for the league...otherwise the Giants, Jets, Cowboys, the...Commanders, pretty much just the MLB big markets with a few places where Football is bigger, they'd have the same competitive advantage.

It's the Bucks. Wisconsin Sports teams think injuries are a matter of National Security. BUT according to Middleton, when he came back, he twisted it a couple times, some small things, it was a little sore, tried to play through it and now they're holding him out as a precaution until he's 100%. Not the knee he sprained last year. So that's good. Middleton makes me the most nervous long term...I'm sure that's recency bias as last year I wasn't real confident in Lopez, but...he wants 40M a year for multiple more years. A trade MIGHT not be the worst idea...

This has literally never made sense. They didn't give Bonilla deferred money to keep him, they literally did it to get rid of him without having to pay him. So...in this case, going fully Bobby Bonilla would be giving Burnes away and then paying his ~11M over from about 2030-2060. Maybe they'd go Max Scherzer who got 110M in deferred money or Strasburg who was getting 70M. The first step in extending Burnes. Offering Burnes an extension. The second step...seeing what his counter is. The first two lead to the 3rd. Negotiate or determine it's not likely.

And the bigger market teams will NEVER agree to share all their revenue. It's why the NFL has blown past MLB. Wellington Mara, owner of the Giants...sacrificed for the wellness of the league and now they're signing 110B dollar TV deals, they're getting 3B more a year for the Red Zone Package... MLB has a team that's going to spend around 450M while there will be other teams spending 45. It's kinda like CFB in resource allocations.

3 point shooting has been what's killed them and they don't give up many layups. And they've been an elite defense(#1 or #2 this year)...but when they're playing Carter and Jrue, if guys get hot, they shoot over them. You're right obviously, when you face a team like...the Bulls and they're hitting, it can hurt. It also takes an almost comical collapse. It is kinda funny to me that the knock on Lopez for years was he was a poor defender/rebounder and he was just a low post scorer. Now they almost never use him as a low post scorer. When he does, it's kinda as a 3rd or 4th option...which is a little stupid IMO as he's so good down there. As for Allen, it's easy to tell after a game like last night and I think those are the games people hang onto, but he's a good player. He just needs to be the 4th or 5th option and a catch and shoot guy who hangs out at the 3 point line and if someone closes out, he can attack...a little. But if they're looking for a guy who can be an elite defender and hit 3s like Allen, those guys generally get 20M a year. I would like to see Carter in the rotation, even against a team like the Celtics. His length is obviously a big disadvantage, but...what the hell, he can at least deny the ball and he has quick hands. He needs to do less on offense. And Beauchamp should get minutes when a guy like Tatum or Brown start to get going. He's our best wing defender other than Jrue. Brown scores 7 straight, put him in the game and put him on one, when Jrue is healthy, he's on the other...and it's that simple. But...that's not how Bud does things. If they get healthy...they're going to be one of the few teams who can win it. If they're not, they won't. I don't think there's a trade out there that's gonna help them a ton...though I'd still consider Cam Reddish. We've seen the talent there. And he should be cheap, plus a good fit...if he just shoots the 3 like he did last year in ATL.

Pretty much. I mean...who cares how they're doing in the regular season as long as they're in the playoffs? To a degree anyway. They lost an UGLY game last night with Giannis blowing it at the end, but they're missing Middleton, Ingles is just coming back(looked really good the last two games...and I actually see now how his defensive metrics are good despite being nicknamed "slow Joe"). I think the inference is we're supposing to be wringing our hands because they've lost 3 straight games? Yeah...don't care. If 4 of our playoff rotation players aren't healthy come May/June, then I'll start worrying. Until then...meh.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I'm not saying give up on him as a starter. I'm just suggesting he could be used in the Hader role in the short term. We have him for 7 more years if we want him...wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to use him in 2-3 inning stints a couple times a week. I'm thinking when Peralta starts to begin with, but you wouldn't be tied to that. He clearly has elite, true ace type stuff, so I wouldn't think they'd be giving up on him as a starter long term. But if you have the big 3, Lauer, Houser, maybe Gasser/Small and you bring in another starter or someone like Knarr gets called up? It's just one idea. I don't think anyone can really guess what this pen is going to look like in Sept. There is SUCH an enormous range of potential outcomes, it'd be foolish to try and guess.

Good call. 60 FB, 60 SL. There are just SO many guys who could potentially break out...it's impossible to guess who actually will. But he's definitely one. So is Ashby. Maybe they make him a multi-inning reliever?

In fairness, most of the time when they've done this, it hasn't worked out. But with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade an OFer for Pitching, it made more sense it'd be for a young, controllable reliever. Felix Bautista would look SO good in this pen...unlikely as that may be.

Bullpens are weird, but this is the hole right now...IMO. Uribe could certainly come in and just gain confidence and become a stud. That's hardly unusual. He could be the closer by the end of this year. Our #7 Prospect(per fangraphs) Justin Topa-70 grade FB, 60 grade slider; Struggles staying healthy have been a problem, but he's also got the stuff to be a late inning reliever. Two guys who were position prospects who moved to the mound, the later after being a top ~50 prospect. Lucas Ecerg...less likely he could become a late inning man, but pitchers with his stuff can figure it out quickly(which is a common theme here and it only takes 1 or 2 to do so the pen looks entirely different). Javy Guerra can hit 100 and had the stuff to be a late inning reliever. High spin rates, he was dominant last year in AAA. He was a top 50 prospect at a position player, but also has the stuff to be a SU man and a closer. Justin Yeager, part of the...robbery that was the Contreras trade throws in the upper 95-98(+2MPH) having added velocity last year per scouting reports, he's throwing his slider in the 87-90 up 3 MPH...and apparently a high spin rate, but he nibbles too much. Cam Robinson, sits mid 90s, his FB has a 60 grade, two other above average pitchers(potentially) and he had 63% ground ball rate. Gus Varland was apparently hitting 98 when he moved to the BP. Exceptionally unlucky last year with a .374 BABIP against him. Good strikeout rate and was pitching well in a relievers role. Ethan Small-Apparently hits 96 in shorter stints? I don't know, haven't seen it, but he's got a 70 grade change, struggled badly last year with his command as he was nibbling too much, but his fastball is deceptive and he's had a good curve in the past. He wouldn't be my pick, but he could certainly play a role in a as multi-inning reliever. Or hell, if he's ACTUALLY touching 96 in shorter stints, he could be an effective 7th inning man depending on match-ups? These are just some of the pitchers(the most likely, but still, only some) who could find themselves pitching in the late innings of playoff games or contributing in some significant way...or they never make the 26 and are marginal AAA relievers. That's in addition to all the pitchers already listed. If feels like good bullpens come together through a couple anchors and then trial and error. We lost a big anchor next year...so it's sure be nice if between Williams, Bush, Uribe, Cousins, we could get a couple of anchors.

I get that, but I think the fact that they've been able to handle lefties in the minors at least shows they can stay in on them. They're not bailing out like so many lefties do. At that point, it's just a matter of contact IMO. If Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, if they can put the ball in play vs lefties, they're going to be alright. They may only carry a .680 OPS, but I could see it being a .330/.350 type line for Mitchell or Turang. That's...IF they are capable of doing that. Mitchell is the one I'm the most worried about. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he had a big year. We have a mountain of question marks. Will Winker get back to being a .300/.400/.550 line Will Adames be able to get the walk rate back over 10% in addition to the power and defense? Both Adames and Urias hit into poor luck. Will the shift rules help the Brewers more than most teams? With Turang playing 2B, a plus defensive SS, will he be able to cover enough ground in case he struggles to hit? Or will he just keep on hitting pretty well as he's going to be a 23 year old rookie. Will Frelick be able to strike out once every 200 ABs? Can Wiemer make the adjustments? Contreras do what he did last year in a loaded ATL lineup in Milwaukee when he's expected to get another ~150 PAs and DH on some days? Who else are we going to add? Can Toro or Perkins or Miller break out and be productive ML hitters? There are a ton of questions, but we've got enough options and talent and I think the rule changes will help us. I think our defense is going to be drastically improved save the most important position(C). We'll see if we can work our magic with him as we've done with past catchers. And I think there's a good chance Ashby steps up and becomes a potential 3rd ace. He's that talented and he should have high expectations this year. I also think we've got ~20-30M in payroll room and who knows how that manifests.

I'd want them to eat 4-5M. I like that he's got good splits vs lefties. That's...really the first thing I"m looking at for any potential addition at this point. I think he'd be best served as a 1B/DH vs good lefties. And we could throw him a Valerio in order to do so...he has some value. I don't know, I liked him. He also provides some protection against Turang struggling. But I wouldn't make this signing if it meant Turang wasn't going to get the lions share of the ABs at 2B. I'd do it so we could kinda rotate Escobar around.

Agreed. I like Adames...you can't commit 170 to him...and I really don't think you'd have to. People are looking at these FA contracts and acting like something's changed. NOTHING has changed. The Brewers still have team control for 2 more years, so comparing what Carlos Rodon got as an Apples to Apples comp is silly. How about Walker Buehler. Lets use him as a comp. He's been pretty much on par with Burnes. Same age, he's been an ace. Was dominant when they won the WS. Being a FA RIGHT NOW and being 400 innings away from being a FA is a pretty big difference. Tyler Glasnow is another. Not on the same level, but a dominant pitcher with just overpowering stuff who was likely set to get a massive payday. Even Rodon himself. No, the Brewers CANNOT sign any of these elite FA's to contracts. They can afford to extend players who are elite and still under team control for 2 years. But obviously as the team control diminishes, the chances to extend diminishes. I think last year was the time to sign Burnes, but I don't think it's nearly as unlikely as some are suggesting. You have to actually make the offer and make an attempt and it's possible the Brewers know it'll be expensive either way and they're just planning on making a run and then trading Burnes, Woody, Adames. Burnes came out and said he hasn't been approached, but that he'd like to stay in Milwaukee(not that saying he wants to stay here means that much, a contract extension would tell you just how much he wants to).

If Ashby can just refine a few things, it's entirely plausible to see him jump into the Corbin Burnes tier. His stuff is so nasty and electric, that it's just about working on his pitch sequence and maturing as a pitcher. Now...not everyone does that. Wily Peralta is a pitcher who had the upside of an ace. In fact, in the broadest of terms, I think there are usually half a dozen guys at least in every farm system who legitimately have "ace" upside. That takes so much to get there, but Ashby is healthy, he's overpowering and now he's on the precipice. It's unlikely he reaches the top of his ceiling, but...it's certainly exciting to think about what we could have with Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby/Lauer...and then Gasser could force his way into the discussion which could help the Brewers at the deadline possibly use a pitcher like Lauer for a significant upgrade elsewhere. Of course we all know how rare it is for a staff to make it through a season healthy.

So weird to see him start. And as always, the 3's are nice, but he just fits into this defense so well. He looks more mature and advanced than it was suggested. He's got a ways to go on his ball handling and his shooting, but he's certainly fits into the team. Makes the smart plays, he's good when he's attacking the basket...and the ball doesn't stop with him unless he's got a clean look. I don't expect he'll be a part of the rotation when healthy...unless we need him to defend, but again, really bright future, nice game in his first start.

Bucks interested in a Cam Reddish trade. The names tied to a Reddish trade were Ingles and Allen, but for a guy who's out of the Knicks rotation, I think that's too much to give up. Knicks like the perfect team to give Jordan Nwora a go. They're trying to compete this year, so George Hill and Nowra+a 2nd? I don't think you can trade Allen unless it's for a CLEAR and significant upgrade given his shooting and how he's underrated in other aspects. Attacking the baskets when defenders close out a little too hard on them, quick hands, gets in the passing lanes. Good effort defender. So you take Reddish and you HOPE he can be the guy you saw glimpses of. The 6'8 big man who moved like a SG, who's defense was suffocating, who has a really nice stroke(90% FT shooter last two years and this year

I think you need to be on the OD roster get draft compensation. It's pretty hard to work all this nonsense out the CBA wasn't completed until they decided on the international draft and that factored into it in the original CBA, but...long story short, gotta be on the OD. Though you still get a full service year if you're in the top 3. So the Os don't get one. The Mariners I believe do and I don't think anyone else does. Not the Braves for Harris(top 100) or Strider(OD but not top 100...in fact, not top 20 on the Braves own just a year earlier). The O's don't get one for Adley because he wasn't there OD. This system needs some tweaks.

Maybe, but do they really place that much importance on HRs? He wasn't exactly Barry Bonds(size 8 3/4ths head size version) prior to 2021 when he was on the top 100. I think it's really just because...he's kinda boring. He was one of those guys who was projected as high as the top 5 at one point(seems like there are about 40 of them each year). He fell, mainly because he was just not spectacular, then the Brewers drafted him and he continued to be very young and solid at each level. So given how low he was, it was probably more just different players having breakouts, or the early picks. But if there's any year he deserves to be in the lower end of the top 100, it's coming off a .770+ OPS as a 22 year old who moved all over playing elite Defense and who got better the 2nd half of the year. I really don't think Wiemer should drop. He continued producing and had a really outstanding run at AAA. I'm not sure people appreciate his upside enough. Or maybe it's just the range out outcomes he's got. He could be a superstar or he could be a...Keon Broxton type. I really think we've got 3-4+ guys who should be top 100. The three who are, Turang, then Mitchell, Black and Quero could all be in that next group with Misiorowski a guy who could move VERY quickly and hit that top 100. I also think it's really just stupid how much importance these 100 lists play. Avina isn't even on our top 30 prospects on MLB.com. You could pretty easily argue he's a top 10 prospect in the system...but not even top 30. Really hope they go after pitching hard as they seem to be stacked with position players. Very underrated position prospects.

I don't really get what happened that caused him to fall off. He was on it...then as a 21 year old SS with plus defense in AAA hit like...what, ~.250/.380? Very little power, but speed an D at the 2nd most important position defensively. Hopefully his power surge at the end of last year puts him on some lists and...who knows.

You mean if he's capable of doing the thing that he...just did last year? Just maybe they should...and this is a CRAZY idea, I get it, I'm way out on a ledge here...but maybe they should see if he can on a regular basis? I know it's in direct contrast to the "put your player in the situations he's less likely to succeed" ethos, but...just might make sense going against the grain on this one.

I think this is a little reach. If he was just crushing it in the Dominican league, would you feel differently? It's just 90 ABs. I still like him and I hope he ends up back in the system. Still coming off a solid season in AAA for a 23 year old catcher, but easy to see why they let him go with Quero coming up behind him and Contreras on the roster.

Myers makes a LOT of sense. Turner of course does as well, but I see him back in LA on a ~8M deal. I suspect it'd take substantially more to get him to leave LA. I believe the Brewers could still add ~20M to the payroll this year(not a 20M a year type deal, 20 this year) give or take. More perhaps if it was a true difference maker and not just a nice sell to the fans like McCutchen. If they do or not...I don't care. They've already added an AS Catcher for nothing(in terms of money, Ruiz had value to us obviously). I also like May or Fulmer. Or Lugo any can be had in the 6-8M range.