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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    Yeah feel like it's pretty much going to be May and Gasser in games 3 and 4 with the shortest leashes imaginable. As soon as they show signs of struggle then pen will get warming whether it's the 2nd inning or the 4th inning.
  2. Lucas O.
    Even if he could handle it mentally, I don't think there's enough time to stretch him out by the NLDS. It's two weeks away. He hasn't gone more than 7 outs since July 3rd and his highest pitch count since the start of July is 47.
  3. Lucas O.
    It's hard for me to trust the stuff metrics when he's sitting on a 23% K-rate on the year with average-ish contact suppression. If the stuff is so good why is it not translating into either more strikeouts or better contact suppression? One of my slight worries when we traded for him was how much of his success FIP wise was on the back of his HR suppression at Busch. He gave up 0.13 HR/9 at Busch as a Cardinal and 1.31 on the road as a Cardinal. Busch by statcast park factors is hardest park to hit HR at in MLB. As a Brewer he's sitting at 1.42 HR/9 which is pretty close to his road number as a Cardinal. You're probably right that they are going to have to just keep rolling him out there with a super short leash in October but as a fan, I don't know how you can feel good about him on the mound based on what he's done this year. Outside of Busch Stadium he's rocking an ERA around 6.00
  4. Lucas O.
    Can you even trust May to go 3-4 innings? Feel like he's prone to blow at any moment.
  5. Lucas O.
    The playoff races are pretty lame this year. The NL feels like the 6 playoff teams are already locked in and all that's left is a battle between us and LA for the 1 seed and then a battle between Chicago, Philly, and San Diego for 4-5-6 seeding. There's a bit more action in the AL but it's hardly exciting watching a bunch of .500 teams fight for playoff spots because none of these teams look like they belong in the playoffs.
  6. Lucas O.
    He's 7th on the team in PA since he came off the IL in early May. This idea he's barely played is just not true. Yeah he doesn't play everyday but that's largely because one of the best hitting 1B in MLB is also on the Brewers.
  7. Lucas O.
    Hilarious comment. Yeah Vaughn probably can't wait to leave Milwaukee the place where he's turned around his career.
  8. Lucas O.
    He has looked like super washed Yelich tonight. Definitely don't want tonight's version getting playoff AB
  9. Lucas O.
    Chourio is the definition of a streaky hitter. Before his most recent hot streak he was on a 2-20 streak and now he's on another 0-10 streak
  10. Lucas O.
    5 more years
  11. Lucas O.
    Though looking back to yesterday the game was still up before it started so not sure why it isn't up there
  12. Lucas O.
    That game hasn't started yet
  13. Lucas O.
    What a play by Pratt
  14. Lucas O.
    It probably won't end up mattering but if it does end up mattering it won't be good for the Brewers because if that tiebreaker comes into play it will almost certainly mean the Braves have the tiebreaker because they closed out the year strong and the Brewers faded
  15. Lucas O.
    Murphy also considers 4 runs on the road a save situation though I think Megill was going to throw the 9th either way for the reason you said
  16. Lucas O.
    I don't know why people find this surprising. Fangraphs projections are based off models which are based off your previous three years weighted a bit for the most recent years. The Brewers entered this year with their entire rotation being guys with under 2 years of MLB experience and Brandon Woodruff who had a big injury red flag. The Brewers overperforming Fangraphs has almost entirely come down to our pitching staff being way better than projections but the projections are toughest for players with little MLB experience.
  17. Lucas O.
    Turang is a heavy favorite at 2B. He's leading in SDI which is 25% of the vote. I'd say Chourio is a favorite as well. Ortiz maybe an outside shot for the utility gold glove?
  18. Lucas O.
    Unless DL has passed Ashby on the leverage depth chart, I have no idea why Ashby is pitching multiple innings up 5-0.
  19. Lucas O.
    Definitely helps that Ashby pretty much nailed the target. Feel like when a pitcher does that it really helps the catcher to be confident it caught the edge because they are going to be putting the target up on the edge.
  20. Lucas O.
    I think teams don't pitch out because the nerds have said a pitch out isn't valuable enough in suppressing CS to give up a free ball. In theory if a guy is stealing a pitch out probably helps get a CS but the baserunner isn't going to run every time you throw a pitch out. I think teams have more focused on catcher's exchanging the ball quicker and pitchers getting the ball to home sooner to suppress stealing.
  21. Lucas O.
    SB are up since they moved to the bigger bases but success rate spiked in year one and has been trending down since. Basically back down to 75% success rate this year.
  22. Lucas O.
    I think Lockridge has very little value when you actually look at the roster. The only guys on the roster you would actually pinch run for are Contreras, Gary, and Vaughn. The only way you’re pinch running for Contreras is if it’s very late in a close game. Sanchez and Vaughn are both likely to be on the bench against RHP. There really isn’t much use for Lockridge as a pinch runner especially when you’d probably prefer to use Hamilton as your top priority pinch runner.
  23. Lucas O.
    Should be a short start. Reds are really limiting him now. I think he only went 3 innings in his last start.
  24. Lucas O.
    This is Brewers with 400 PA in their age 22 in franchise history. Chourio probably passes Yount in fWAR but doesn’t pass Molitor. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&ind=1&team=23&age=22%2C22&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=1970&season=2026&qual=400
  25. Lucas O.
    It's the FB shape. His arm angle has dropped since he came off the IL so he's not getting as much vert on his fastball. Doesn't matter how hard he throws if the arm angle and shape aren't up to par.
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