Redd Vencher

He posted a career best 4.7 fWAR this year. It comes down to the what defensive metric you view as reliable in 1 year sample. DRS hated his defense this year while OAA had him as league average.

By season age, it's 3 years. 2025 will be Chapman's age 32 season while it will be Adames age 29 season.

His deal is going to fall between Swanson's 7 year $177 M and Correa's 6 $200 M. He's the 2nd or 3rd best and 4th youngest position player on the market.

I think it's a pretty safe bet he gets to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons. He posted a 12.5 fWAR (10.4 bWAR) over the last 3 seasons. A couple more average seasons like the last 3 and not a huge fall off after would get it done easily. (I wanted an 8 year $144 M extension for Adames 2 years ago) His contract is going to be 6-7 years on the FA market not 5. If the Brewers are giving out a $100+ M contract this offseason, I'd prefer it go to Contreras instead of Adames because you can get a sub $20 M per year for the FA years with Contreras compared to the $25+ M per year an Adames deal would cost. 10 year $155 M for Contreras would be what I would target. (6, 10, 15, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, and 5 buyout on 17)

This is Adames age 28 season, and next year is his age 29. That's the age discussion going on.

Sasaki would be subject to the international bonus pool if he's posted this offseason. Increased TV revenue means nothing in his situation.

Given the history of Catcher extensions, Contreras hasn't priced himself out of Milwaukee yet. I wonder if people's view on an Contreras extension would be changed looking at Wilson Contreras' bat in his early 30s. Wilson's 133 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons at ages 30-32 is 3% better than William's 130 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons. Even with a move off catcher in the latter part of an extension that 130 wRC+ would be top 10 1B/DH bat. Previous top catcher extensions Mauer 8 years $181 M signed 1 year to FA Posey 9 years $167 M signed 3 years to FA Smith 10 years $140 M signed 2 years to FA Murphy 6 years $73 M signed 3 years to FA I don't think Contreras has done enough to warrant Mauer or Posey deal. Mauer was coming off a 170 wRC+ 8.3 fWAR season and Posey was coming off a 164 wRC+ 9.8 fWAR season when those deals were signed. Smith and Murphy are better comps in my view. 3 seasons before extension Mauer 18.1 fWAR Posey 15.4 fWAR (2011 injury that resulted in Posey rule included) Contreras 13.1 fWAR Smith 12.8 fWAR Murphy 10.1 fWAR (includes shortened 2020 season, which would put him above Contreras assuming it held over 162) Something like 10 years $150 M guaranteed split out like this: 25 $4 M 26 $8 M 27 $12 M 28 $15 M 29-34 $17.5 M 35 $6M buyout of $18 M option This would cover ages 27-36 assuming the 2035 option is declined. Can even defer some amount of money in the 29-34 seasons to bring it down to $15 M per season, which would presumably be nothing for a player of his caliber at the time. If Chourio can be that 142 wRC+ hitter he was from June 1st on this year over a full season as he matures, that gives you a good 3/4 in the lineup locked in together for the the next 9 seasons. If Yelich can give you a 120 wRC+ over the next 4 seasons of his contract, that's a good core to the lineup.

This offense scored the 6 most runs in baseball this year. 7 fewer than the Phillies and 9 more than the Mets.

Here's a look at a big picture with where the Brewers are at compared to the rest of the league. Over the 20 seasons Mark A has owned the team the Brewers are 8th winningest team in baseball averaging 84.0 wins over 162 games making the playoffs 8/20 times with 2 NLCS appearances. Since 2017 on this current run, the Brewers are 6th winningest team in baseball averaging 90.3 wins per season making the playoffs 6/8 times with 1 NLCS appearance. 2005-2024 (WS wins) NYY 92.9 (1) LAD 92.8 (1) STL 88.0 (2) BOS 87.3 (3) ATL 86.3 (1) CLE 84.9 TBD 84.6 MIL 84.0 PHI 83.4 (1) LAA 83.1 HOU 82.7 (2) NYM 82.0 TOR 81.7 SFG 81.5 (3) CHC 81.2 (1) TEX 80.6 (1) MIN 80.2 OAK 79.9 DET 78.9 SEA 78.4 SDP 78.2 ARI 78.1 WSN 78.0 (1) CIN 76.8 CHW 76.6 (1) BAL 75.0 COL 74.3 FLA 73.5 PIT 73.2 KCR 71.9 (1) 2017-2024 (WS wins) LAD 103 (1) HOU 97.6 (2) NYY 94.2 ATL 91.8 (1) TBR 91.0 MIL 90.3 CLE 89.8 BOS 86.6 (1) STL 85.5 MIN 84.1 CHC 83.5 SEA 83.4 PHI 82.6 NYM 81.5 TOR 80.6 SFG 80.1 SDP 79.6 ARI 79.2 OAK 77.3 WSN 76.0 (1) CIN 73.9 LAA 73.8 TEX 73.4 (1) COL 72.9 BAL 71.6 PIT 70.6 CHW 69.5 MIA 69.3 DET 68.7 KCR 68.4 I think the Brewers will be much more active in trades going forward because they've built a deep pipeline of talent that will lead to consistent 40 man roster crunches similar to what Tampa has faced over their run. Much easier in a way to improve the big league roster than during the course of this run.

What top 50 or top 100 guy was I proposing when you suggested disappointment? The rankings were in the Red Sox top 30 not the top 100.

I didn't propose a prospect close to the type of prospect Robby Snelling that went back for half a season of Scott. Fitts and Meidroth are comparable to Mazur and Pauley. Romero and Rodriguez-Cruz are both better than Beshears, but we're taking a much weaker front of the package because the offseason is different than the deadline.

Devin Williams isn't headlining a package for Jordan Westburg, though.

Boston had the 2nd most MD this year, and Kenley Jansen is a FA. Williams for INF Chase Meidroth (11th), RHP Richard Fitts (13th), SS/2B Mikey Romero (16th), and RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (7th) would be a nice deal. Not huge upside on any of these guys, but Meidroth and Fitts are big league ready, and Romero and Rodriguez-Cruz should be ready sometime next season. May have to add a Peguero to our end like the Tanner Scott trade.

Neither the Blue Jays nor Brewers would do this trade.

They've got a ton of SP depth, and a pretty good 40 Man roster crunch coming this offseason. They're dedinitely going to focus on minor league rotation depth over a guaranteed 40 man roster spot if they add SP. I'd also add Coleman Crow to the AAA rotation depth next year, especially if he performs well in the Fall League.

Yeah BTV isn't living in reality on this one. I would not give up Tyler Black for a 1 year rental.

Blue Jays are going to want 1 top 100 talent to move Bichette. Brewers shouldn't be moving that type of talent for rentals.

Jordan Montgomery isn't opting out of his contract for 2025. (1 year $25 M)

Nobody is giving Moncada $10 M for 2025 with all the injuries the last 3 seasons.

You're having an argument with semantics here. Average/Solid are used interchangeably in my original posts. He has a -4 DRS 4.9 UZR 4 OAA at 3B ove the last 3 seasons. I can justify Moncada just fine without him having a Profar type season. I did it in the rest of the post you didn't quote. Entering his age 30 season makes him one of the younger IF in the FA market. (Torres 28, Adames/Kim/Rosario 29, Moncada/Wade/Hampson 30, Bregman/DeJong/Newman 31, etc.) Moncada has a career 107 wRC+. A 100 wRC+ and average defense at 3B for a couple million would be a perfectly fine stopgap to Wilken/Boeve. If he can't do that it's easy to dump him in season. He's not my first option to bring in as I suggested Torres on a pillow contract.

He's definitely on an innings limit. He won't pass it pitching out of the pen the remainder of the year, though.

We're going to need another IF when Adames leaves. Gleyber Torres on a pillow contract would be my first choice for that IF. Should Torres not have to settle for a pillow contract, the options in the Brewers price range aren't great, barring Kim getting Wonged, and Wilken/Boeve aren't likely to be ready on OD. Moncada is the youngest of the options and should provide average production on at least 1 side of the ball. (His defense is solid at 3rd despite injuries and poor performance at the plate over the last few seasons) The White Sox should pay the $5 M buyout on the $25 M option. I'd do a 1 year between $1-3 M for the 2025 campaign. Maybe even get an option in there.

Brewers are also the only team in baseball to not have a 4+ game losing streak.

A guy I would be in on a pillow contract for is Gleyber Torres. He's entering his age 28 seasons, so a bounceback to career norms is still a strong possibility. (113 wRC+) Yoan Moncada is an interesting stopgap option for 3B until Wilken and/or Boeve are ready.

That first trade isn't happening. The Anderson trade is laughably bad for the Brewers, and the Williams trade is a pretty weak return as well barring the Brewers internals really liking the prospects.