Jake McKibbin

Image courtesy of Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images Four runs has always been a fun barometer in baseball. When a team scores four runs, they should expect to win the game. The same is true in reverse: keeping an opponent below four runs is usually a strong indicator of victory. For most of the history of the game, teams who score exactly four runs in a contest have hovered around a .500 record, but it sometimes bobs higher and hardly ever dips lower. If you score any more than four, you can start writing the 'W' into the standings. Reaching four runs (or preventing an opponent from reaching that mark) gives us a simple way of measuring the consistency of a team's ability to score and prevent runs. For example, the Brewers are 86-15 this season when scoring four or more runs, an 85% win rate. They are 85-14 when allowing fewer than four runs, an 84% win rate. Those numbers fluctuate depending on the quality of the team and its strengths. The Brewers are built around minimizing weak points, and when they score four runs or allow fewer than four, they typically make it difficult for their opponents to find a way back into the game. The Brewers have won 63% of their games in 2026. When they reach either of the four-run markers above, that win rate jumps to around 85%. In other words, reaching one of those benchmarks has been associated with a dramatically higher likelihood of victory for Milwaukee. So, which teams have been the most successful by these barometers in 2026? Scoring Four Or More Runs The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are tied for the teams that have most frequently scored four or more runs this season. Both reached the mark 101 times, doing so in 62% of their games. The Cubs are widely regarded as one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball, led by 2026 MVP-to-be Pete Crow-Armstrong, but when it comes to the consistency of their offensive output, the two teams have been remarkably similar. The Cubs (with their far worse pitching) only won 75% of the games in which they scored four or more, though. (This week, in getting bumrushed from baseball's Oktoberfest, they neither scored four in a game nor held the Padres below four in either contest.) Home-field advantage has been particularly important for the Brewers. They've scored four or more runs 54 times at The Ueck, a total surpassed only by the A's and tied by the team from near Atlanta. That rate of reaching four runs is (perhaps unsurprisingly) even higher than their overall rate. Among playoff teams, here is how each team ranks in scoring four or more runs this season: Team Total Times Scoring 4 or More Runs Milwaukee Brewers 101 Chicago Cubs 101 Los Angeles Dodgers 99 Atlanta Braves 98 Chicago White Sox 93 Tampa Bay Rays 92 Philadelphia Phillies 92 New York Yankees 91 San Diego Padres 91 Cleveland Guardians 89 Boston Red Sox 88 Houston Astros 86 There's a clear distinction between the top four teams (all in the National League) and the rest of the pack. The Phillies certainly stand out, although the Padres are perhaps slightly blurred, given their discrepancy in the first and second halves of the season; they're more dangerous than their raw number implies. Who Prevents A Team Scoring Four Runs Most Often? That would be the Atlantas. Fueled by strong pitching performances (particularly at home in Truist Park), they've allowed four or more runs on just 68 occasions this season. The Brewers and the New York Yankees are tied for second, having allowed four or more runs in just 73 games, or 45% of their total games. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox are close behind at 75, before another drop-off to the rest of the field. Looking at the full list also reveals some interesting cases. The Diamondbacks and Tigers performed well in this category, and we'll return to that when looking at the overall totals. There is a case to be made that this measure is highly indicative of regular-season success. If we isolate the results to playoff teams once again: Team Total Occasions Team Allowed 4+ Runs Atlanta Braves 68 Milwaukee Brewers 73 New York Yankees 73 Los Angeles Dodgers 75 Boston Red Sox 75 Tampa Bay Rays 79 Cleveland Guardians 79 San Diego Padres 84 Chicago Cubs 87 Houston Astros 90 Chicago White Sox 91 Philadelphia Phillies 91 There are some notable names here, too. The Phillies have had Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo in their rotation, all pitchers who would receive All-Star consideration (with Wheeler's eligibility being the caveat), alongside Jhoan Duran as their closer. Despite the quality at the top of the rotation and at the back of the bullpen, however, Philadelphia has struggled to consistently prevent opponents from reaching four runs, highlighting the problems elsewhere on the pitching staff (and in their defense). The White Sox provide the opposite example. Their offense has appeared remarkably consistent, but they have struggled mightily to replicate that performance on the pitching side. If anything, one might have expected them to have allowed that many even more often, and/or lost more games because of their faulty pitching. When they need to, though, they have ways to clamp down on opposing lineups. Overall, this broadly matches the eye test. If you asked most clubs which rotations and bullpens they would fear most, some combination of the Brewers, Yankees and Dodgers would likely appear on plenty of lists. Overall: Run Scoring vs Run Prevention Putting the two measures together creates an intriguing picture. Who consistently performs at a game-winning level in both run scoring and run prevention? The playoffs are obviously a small-sample environment, and a team's ability to get hot at the right time can completely change the outcome of a short series. But the ability to produce runs and prevent them consistently over 162 games should provide a useful indication of which teams have the strongest underlying profiles heading into October. Once again, there is a slight surprise at the top: Team 4-Run Games Score Atlanta Braves 30 Milwaukee Brewers 28 Los Angeles Dodgers 24 New York Yankees 18 Chicago Cubs 14 Tampa Bay Rays 13 Boston Red Sox 13 Cleveland Guardians 10 San Diego Padres 7 Chicago White Sox 2 Philadelphia Phillies 1 Houston Astros -4 This figure is calculated by subtracting the number of games in which a team allowed four or more runs from the number of games in which it scored four or more. There are some anomalies. Atlanta rocketed off to an incredible start this season, then tapered off, while the Padres have done almost the reverse. But overall, the measure provides a useful picture of which teams have most consistently reached a winning level on either side of the ball. The Brewers follow the crew from the Atlanta suburbs, with a notable (if not enormous) gap to the Dodgers behind them. After that comes another drop-off, followed by some real stragglers. The White Sox actually showed up offensively, which illustrates just how detrimental their pitching performances have been. Meanwhile, some of the more "hot-and-cold" teams, such as the Cubs, Red Sox, Guardians and Padres, fill the middle of the table. The Brewers Do Not Require Streakiness To Win Playoff Series The Brewers are no longer an offense requiring a hot streak from one or two offensive players to score runs in the postseason. With a variety of threats, simply not going cold will place the best team in baseball in a strong position to win games in October. A common perception of the Brewers is that they score runs primarily through pressure, forcing mistakes and capitalizing when opponents fall behind. The numbers suggest a much more complete offensive picture. Milwaukee has produced four or more runs more consistently than any other team in baseball this season, while also ranking second in the frequency with which it prevents opponents from reaching four runs. They aren't simply relying on one avenue to produce offense, nor are they surviving purely because of their pitching. They have consistently put themselves in games where either their offense reaches a winning-level threshold, or their pitching keeps the opposition below it. In both measures, they sit ahead of the vaunted Dodgers. Streakiness is great in the playoffs. Getting hot matters. Getting hot on top of a stable foundation is even more dangerous. The Brewers have spent 162 games proving that foundation exists. Now, they get to find out whether it travels to October. View full article

I think both are pitches a lot of people struggle with as they're deceptive and typically stay in the zone longer/tunnel exceptionally well With Mitchell (and I took this out with the article in danger of becoming too long) I think he's simplified down to breaking ball/heater. He still sells out for the fastball of that pitch holds it's plane long enough, and that's where he's caught early and out in front of the change up. So because of his FB issues, it's something that works a little better on him than most, but I have a feeling if someone went to it too often, he's very capable of adjusting his sights

I'll bet you weren't expecting it after seeing that title

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images When the postseason begins, the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup will face a different kind of challenge. Opposing pitching staffs will have the time and information to build specific game plans around the top of Milwaukee’s lineup, and four of their most dangerous hitters—Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Jake Bauers—have each played important roles in an offense that has consistently found ways to create pressure, but October baseball is about exploiting every possible weakness. Let's delve into just how opposing teams might look to minimize the strength of the Brewers' most effective hitters. 1. Garrett Mitchell: Can you get him to chase? If Garrett Mitchell is going to lead off against right-handed pitching, opposing starters have an obvious problem: how do you attack a hitter who rarely chases, without giving him a pitch he can drive? Mitchell has a patient approach at the plate, rarely chasing pitches outside the zone and forcing pitchers to beat him inside it. He'll swing and miss inside the strike zone, but the other side of the coin is just how consistently hard Mitchell is hitting the ball. After adapting his swing mid-season to create more damage against the high fastball (more info here), Mitchell evolved back into the version of himself that had to sell out less for one pitch and can do serious damage against breaking pitches and fastballs, alike. In September, he had a 98-MPH average exit velocity against right-handed pitchers, and his mark was 95 MPH against all fastballs in the same month. The one pitch I didn't mention is, perhaps, the one thing holding him back. Thomas Nestico (TJstats) has the conditionally formatted breakdown for Mitchell (above) against right-handed pitching, and it shows off a few things. Teams typically don't like to pound the strike zone against Mitchell, thanks to the quality of contact he produces against almost every kind of pitch, but his low chase rate makes this a real cat-and-mouse scenario. Mitchell's hard-hit rates against nearly every pitch are exemplary, bar two: the changeup and the splitter. Having an offering that Mitchell struggles to damage is a real neutraliser. A 55% whiff rate against the changeup makes it an easy pitch to spam, even if only to get ahead in counts and set up a high fastball to put him away. Pitchers have been front-dooring the changeup a lot to Mitchell this season for just that reason, but the low chase rate does present a wrinkle. Off-speed pitches are typically located in-zone less than any other pitch in baseball, and are difficult to command. If they miss, Mitchell is unlikely to chase, and you're handing count leverage to a very dangerous hitter. Mitchell can still hit lefties, especially those without a strong sinker, but there is a platoon advantage for southpaws against him. Having Jackson Chourio hitting behind Mitchell adds some nuance to the situation, punishing teams for strategically going to a southpaw, but it does neutralize Mitchell somewhat. He tends to watch sinkers coming back over the outer third of the plate and struggles to elevate when facing same handed-pitching. 2. Jackson Chourio: Can you get ahead without feeding him? A locked-in Jackson Chourio is almost impossible to pitch to. He'll be aggressive inside the strike zone, can put the barrel to the ball in the shadow areas at the edges, and elevates everything. He's dangerous, but finding that "temperature," as Pat Murphy refers to it, has been an issue at times this year. Chourio has dipped in and out of the state of mind that sees him pulverize baseballs, but he does have a history of rising to the occasion in the biggest moments, with a career playoff OPS over 1.000 and his two-run home run against the Cubs in the ninth inning earlier this month. The big question for the Brewers lineup's linchpin is: can you get Chourio into two-strike counts, without giving him something he can damage? The answer is, of course, 'maybe'. Early in the count, the outer third of the plate is open for business against Chourio, whose approach is focused on the inner third as he hunts a pitch to turn and burn on. His set-up at the plate is quite far away from the strike zone compared to most hitters, and because of how he opens up when he's trying to pull the ball, he doesn't always cover the outside corner well before he gets to two strikes. The problem for the pitcher is that you cannot leak those pitches back over the heart of the plate. A pitcher with supreme command (like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Zack Wheeler) could really take advantage of this, but if those pitches leak back at all, you can see the danger of leaving anything middle-middle to Chourio, If you can get count leverage against Chourio, then his strike-zone awareness becomes a bigger issue. In those spots, pitchers have nibbled heavily against him this year, with great success. If he can stay calm, Chourio can carry this Brewers offense. The challenge, then, isn't simply finding a location Chourio struggles to attack. It's getting to that location early in the count, without giving him something better to hit. It's no small thing to ask of a pitcher: have the right stuff in your arsenal, and don't you dare miss with it. 3. Brice Turang: Does the Lefty Blueprint Still Work? @Jason Wang informed me on the Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live show that Brice Turang has the same Baseball Reference WAR in 2026 as Christian Yelich's 2018 season. That's incredible, but the better news is that the obvious postseason blueprint for Turang may no longer work. For most of 2026, the blueprint against Brice Turang was obvious: give him left-handed pitching. By September, that blueprint had begun to break down. On the year as a whole, Turang has a 76 WRC+ against left-handers, compared to a 149 WRC+ against right-handed pitching. Most of it stemmed from timing issues in how he drifted forward, cutting down his reaction time and leaving him consistently late on fastballs (again, for more details, see this excellent piece, by Jack Stern). Toward the end of August and into September, however, there are clear signs that throwing a left-hander at Turang is no longer an easy button: His expected weighted on-base average had been .250 or below in three of the previous four months against southpaws. It skyrocketed to .425 in September, with Turang hitting balls harder (50% hard-hit rate) and whiffing less (just a 16.7% in-zone whiff rate in the final month). His September results look something like this against left-handers (note that TJStats doesn't exclude bunts from exit-velocity-based statistics, which skews those somewhat): The one lingering weakness may be against the four-seam fastball. Turang does have a hole in his swing, thanks to the steep bat path he's adopted this year, on fastballs up and away. If a pitcher can pound him in that zone, there's not much he's able to do from a damage perspective, but he is patient enough to take those pitches out of the zone and work a count into something more favorable. In this form, Turang can be gotten out reliably only with near-perfect execution, just like Chourio. 4. Jake Bauers: Can you neutralize the power? Jake Bauers's transformation in 2026 has created a fulcrum for this offense. His adjusted mentality in the box compared to prior years has created a calmness that's been invaluable, not just for himself, but for the Brewers clubhouse. That will be critical for an offense that dwindled in the 2025 postseason when the lights got bright, but his biggest contribution is in the consistent provision of power. Bauers looked on track for close to 30 home runs at points in the season, before shin splints derailed him in September, but with five days away from baseball and a more managed load across the last two weeks, the Brewers will be hoping to see their most important slugger back in top form by Saturday. Bauers has produced without a significant platoon disadvantage this season, actually finishing with a higher OPS against left-handers than he did against right-handed pitchers, and an almost .900 OPS overall. He can swing and miss, and his 27% strikeout rate isn't to be ignored, but those strikeouts aren't coming from undue free swinging. On the contrary, Bauers is quite passive inside the strike zone. In 2024 and 2025, Bauers swung at roughly 77% of pitches over the heart of the plate. In 2026, that number has dropped to 70%. That's a bit of a head-fake toward concern, as the damage Bauers has done on those pitches in 2026 has exponentially increased, but it can allow pitchers to get ahead early. Still, Bauers is comfortable in any count, and his xwOBA on contact is actually higher when behind in the count, compared to when he gets ahead. If there's one thing Bauers doesn't seem to pick up well and adjust to, it's a 12-6 curveball. His chase rate against out-of-zone curveballs is good, but when he does swing, the results have been less than ideal. In 2026, he's recorded a batting average of .036 and a wOBA of .174, as well as a barrel rate of just 5.9%. For a hitter who elevates the ball with the authority like Bauers, that's worthy of attention. The curveball therefore presents an unusual opportunity. Bauers isn't particularly prone to chasing it, so simply throwing it below the zone won't necessarily produce a swing. But when he does offer, the results have been dramatically worse than against most other pitches. For a pitcher willing to get into disadvantageous counts and still trust the curveball, that may be the clearest route to limiting Bauers's damage. Of course, again, you need a pitcher with a trustworthy curve to make it work. Four Hitters, Four Different Problems The most encouraging part of this exercise for Milwaukee is that there isn't a single blueprint for attacking the top of this lineup. Mitchell can be challenged with changeups and splitters, but only if pitchers can locate them well enough to avoid handing him another hitter's count. Chourio can be tested on the outer third early in counts, but the margin for error is tiny when a mistake over the plate can turn into immediate damage. Turang's historic vulnerability to left-handed pitching remains relevant, but his September results suggest that simply turning to a southpaw may no longer be enough. And Bauers may have a weakness against the curveball, but even there, pitchers have to get him to offer at a pitch he has shown a willingness to take. That's ultimately what makes this Brewers lineup so interesting heading into October. Each hitter has an identifiable area where an opposing pitching staff can try to gain an advantage, but none of those weaknesses exists in isolation. Every potential solution comes with a corresponding risk. For Milwaukee, the postseason challenge is therefore not necessarily about finding a way to make these weaknesses disappear. It's about forcing opposing pitchers to pay for the times they try to exploit them. Few teams in baseball do that as well as the Brewers do. October baseball tends to magnify small advantages. The Brewers' hitters have them, too. The question is whether opposing pitching staffs can consistently find the right pitch, in the right location, at the right time, and whether Milwaukee's hitters can make them pay when they don't. The answers to those questions will determine how far the Crew goes this fall. View full article

Thanks for all the hard work this year Ben! These reports are a highlight for many and the effort that goes into them never goes unnoticed, or unappreciated

It definitely helps to be a lefty with his speed, and to be putting a lot of balls in play on low line drives/ground balls. Especially with the EV's he records, it's a perfect storm in some ways for a high BABIP

Image courtesy of Aaron Doster-Imagn Images Garrett Mitchell's biggest weakness is no secret. In his first three years in the big leagues, as scattered as those appearances were, he struggled badly against the high fastball. Prior to May 2026, Mitchell had only one month of baseball (April 2025) in which he recorded an expected batting average above .100 on high heaters, and he'd never recorded a monthly xBA above .135. There were occasional glimpses that he could foul off a high fastball, but the best pitchers in the game could go there repeatedly if they wanted to. Eventually, they knew, a swing and miss would come. Mitchell's approach in the years prior to 2026 was to crush everything that wasn't a high fastball. He punished breaking balls in the strike zone, patiently waiting for pitchers to drop the ball down in the zone and attempting to do damage when they did. After 2024, Mitchell spent time at Tread Baseball, working on flattening his swing to better handle pitches at the top of the zone. He knew that, eventually, pitchers wouldn't throw him anything else until he proved he could close that hole. Unfortunately for Mitchell, he didn't have enough game time to develop and adapt those adjustments. A shoulder subluxation ruled him out early in 2025 and ultimately kept him out for the entire season. As much as he could work on the changes in a controlled environment, it's different in a game, where location, movement and the depth of a pitcher's arsenal combine to make the job much tougher. Mitchell even began to struggle with the breaking pitches that had been his bread and butter for so long. Fast-forward to 2026, and a familiar pattern emerged. Mitchell was struggling again with the high fastball in April and May, and by May, pitchers were beginning to expose the weakness frequently. So Mitchell adjusted—in a big way. Some of those adjustments are still being worked on, as you'll see below, but Mitchell appears to be getting closer to his Goldilocks spot. The Stance Change The first, and perhaps easiest, change to see is Mitchell's setup. He's opened his stance significantly, while also shortening the gap between his feet compared with April and May. The degree of that change has varied throughout the season: he moved from roughly 32 inches between his feet in April and May, down to 28 inches in June, then 24 inches in June/July, before moving back to 28 inches in September. Here's a swing from September on a pitch up and over the middle of the plate that Mitchell crushed: ZFh2cTZfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFKVFZGUldYZ1VBRGxjRlVnQUhCd1ZXQUFBR0IxSUFVRlpUQXdVR1VnRUhBbEJl.mp4 Contrast that with Mitchell's setup in April. He looks more coiled and tense than he does in September and, although the camera angle isn't ideal, the closed stance is still obvious to the naked eye: WU9WWWVfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZWWlZ3QU5CMWNBQUZJR0J3QUhCZzVTQUZrQ0IxTUFCd0ZSQndJTlVBTmNBd0lG.mp4 The change in stance brings a couple of advantages. An open setup can help a hitter clear the shoulders and hands more quickly, making it easier to get the bat on plane for pitches higher in the strike zone. Mitchell's shoulders and hips are more open, not just in his initial setup, but also when he gets his foot down. That creates a shorter path to the ball and is helping Mitchell get on time for high fastballs in a way he physically struggled to do in prior years. Flatter Bat Path I mentioned earlier that in the 2024-25 offseason, Mitchell was working on flattening his bat path to help him handle the high fastball. By taking less of an uppercut swing, Mitchell can get the barrel to the ball more directly, creating a more compact swing and reducing the likelihood of missing underneath the pitch. His attack angle tells us a lot about his development in this area, and you can see a fairly dramatic shift in June, followed by another adjustment in July: Mitchell's open stance and flatter path are allowing him to get on time against the fastball and square it up even when it's well-located. Although his swing-and-miss rate against high fastballs fell sharply in July, he's still whiffing fairly often in August and September. It's still a hole in his swing. But it's no longer an easy one for pitchers to exploit. Mitchell is now capable of doing enough damage against the high fastball to make pitchers think twice about repeatedly going there. The changes in his quality of contact are now measurable, thanks to Statcast's developments this year. If we contrast 2024 Mitchell with April 2026 and September, his flatter bat path is having a clear impact on how consistently he's finding the barrel. Mitchell has almost always been "centered," meaning that he tends to get the barrel of the bat to the ball (rather than the end of it, or a narrower part nearer the handle), but the changes in how often he's perfectly on time and in line with the ball bear out the eye test. His swing is now capable of barreling up fastballs. If we split his career results against high fastballs in the strike zone up to the end of this May and the time since, a startling turnaround in performance emerges: 2023-May 2026 s. June 1, 2026 Expected Batting Average 0.120 0.328 Expected Slugging 0.214 0.443 That's allowed Mitchell to approach the plate differently from how he did during the earlier parts of the season. Pitchers are no longer able to pepper him at the top of the strike zone to the point of total predictability without a vicious response, Mitchell can take a more relaxed, all-encompassing approach to his hitting plan. Pitchers now have to show him more than just a high fastball to get him out, and in doing so, Mitchell has been able to access the damage against breaking balls that eluded him earlier this season. Mitchell no longer has to go to the plate thinking primarily about protecting against the high fastball. Earlier in the year, he was selling out for it, and his damage against breaking pitches suffered as a result. Now that he's comfortable covering the fastball at the top of the zone (or at least making pitchers think twice about getting predictable up there), he's able to take a more balanced approach. That's allowed him to get back to hammering breaking balls. The sample sizes for the graphic above are small, but you can see Mitchell catching a lot of balls off the end of his bat in March and April, while also being early. That's a reflection of how much he was selling out for the high fastball and getting caught out in front. Now that he's more comfortable handling his Kryptonite, the timing and barreling of those breaking balls are coming back with a vengeance. Those are the balls you'll see Mitchell pull in the air that go a long, long way. There is still a trade-off. While the flatter swing has been great for helping Mitchell time up fastballs, much of his contact (very hard contact, to be clear) has been on low line drives to the opposite field. If Mitchell is going to tap into his home-run power, it's more likely to come against breaking balls. Now that he's settling into his groove, we're beginning to see that upside with more regularity in September as his expected slugging by month against each pitch group shows (remember the expected slugging against fastballs here covers the whole strike zone, not just high fastballs): It's easy to forget just how little time Mitchell has had to iron out his mechanical kinks in the heat of battle. After losing almost the entirety of 2025, this year has given him the opportunity to make these adjustments, test them against major-league pitching and then adjust again. He's still figuring out exactly where his Goldilocks spot is. But for the first time, Mitchell has made pitchers pay for going to the place that used to be the obvious one to get him out. View full article

The only other situation he might have been useful is in the situation of a second pinch hit ina game for an OF. Again, unlikely scenario but PH Lara and Frelick could come in. If you want to go again, that's the only time. So yeah I don't think it'll be the direction the Brewers go

I think that's it. In a nutshell, Lockridges speed gives you more use and he's more likely to appear in game for that alone That being said, Naylor's value comes from a freedom to use Sanchez as a PH whenever you like, there's always that fear if a catcher goes down what happens. Then again william Contreras is:

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images The Brewers have qualified for the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons, and are once again sailing through September with one of baseball's best records. But the next two weeks aren't really about winning as many games as possible. They're about making sure the right 26 players are available (and properly positioned) when October begins. Milwaukee can carry 26 players to the NLDS (or the Wild Card series, should they lose their grip on a bye through that round, but let's stay optimistic). Against the Cubs in 2025, the Brewers carried 12 pitchers and 14 position players, but there is a wrinkle in there. The schedule afforded an extra day of rest (between Games 1 and 2) during last year's series, meaning the Brewers only needed three traditional starters, and they used that opportunity to bring an extra positional player for versatility in match-ups and defensive coverage, This season, the Brewers will need four starting pitchers, unless they pitch on shorter rest (which is unlikely), so we should anticipate an even split of 13 position players and 13 pitchers. Position Players (13) This appears to be one of the easier position player groups to predict going into October in recent memory. Last season, we wondered if Garrett Mitchell would return on time. There was also the Jesse Winker curveball in 2023. No such dilemmas loom right now. Barring injury, the players should look something like: Catcher: William Contreras, Gary Sánchez First Base: Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn Second Base: Brice Turang Shortstop: Cooper Pratt Third Base: Joey Ortiz, David Hamilton Outfield: Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Luis Lara, Sal Frelick Designated Hitter: Christian Yelich Any deviation from that would be a major surprise. Hamilton is unlikely to be starting games unless a particularly strong match-up presents itself, but his pinch-running and defensive versatility would be assets off the bench. Against a left-handed starter, Bauers's ability to play the outfield gives Pat Murphy another way to get Contreras, Vaughn and potentially Sánchez into the same lineup without sacrificing defensive flexibility. Alternatively, they might lean toward Luis Lara and the premium defensive outfield corps they now have with Mitchell and Chourio—more so with the volume of fly ball pitchers they have lined up to start games. With this group, the Brewers have versatility, pinch-hitting thump and defensive quality that will allow them to adapt to any game situation as and when required. Pitchers (12) Now, we come to something a little less concrete, but the Brewers made a move this week to suggest an answer to at least one question. They now have Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson and Dustin May lined up as the first three pieces of their potential NLDS rotation. The Brewers' decision to move May to Friday is particularly interesting, because it lines him up behind Misiorowski and Henderson. That looks like an attempt to establish the order they want to use in a potential NLDS. It isn't definitive evidence of the playoff rotation, but it is the clearest clue we've been given. They did not do this for Robert Gasser, which leads me to think the starting pitching plan is to go for the above as starters (with a shorter leash for May) and a bullpen game in Game 4 that features a long relief arm, similar to how Misiorowski was used in 2025. Gasser's performance of late, especially the first time through an order, deserves this spot, but it could be matchup dependant: he has an .800 opponents' OPS this season when facing right-handed hitters, compared to a .577 against lefties. That split makes Gasser particularly interesting as a bulk option, rather than an automatic Game 4 starter. If Milwaukee can deploy him against a lineup pocket that leans left-handed, his recent form becomes much more attractive. Either way, he should pitch multiple innings in that game. In short, the Brewers' biggest postseason roster decision may not be who makes the team, but how they distribute innings. It should look something like this: Game 1: Jacob Misiorowski Game 2: Logan Henderson Game 3: Dustin May Game 4: Robert Gasser Then: Right-Handed Matchup Relief: Antonio Senzatela Right-Handed Matchup Relief: Chad Patrick Left-Handed Matchup Relief: JoJo Romero Left-Handed Matchup Relief: DL Hall Left-Handed Matchup Relief: Shane Drohan Jack of All Trades: Aaron Ashby Set-up: Abner Uribe Closer: Trevor Megill Senzatela has given up a lot of hard contact since joining the Brewers, but he and Patrick are strong middle-relief arms to go to against a right-handed pocket of hitters the likes of which the Chicago Cubs field regularly. Ashby is probably the most uncomfortable name on this list, but he's also one of the hardest to leave off. The stuff plays in October, and Murphy has already demonstrated that he isn't afraid to use Ashby outside of traditional bullpen roles or inning assignments. The upside still outweighs the downside, but Milwaukee has to avoid giving hitters too many looks at him throughout the series. It has to be quality, not quantity, for Ashby in 2026. As for Uribe and Megill, there's no question how the game looks if the Brewers have a lead through seven innings. The 26th man You'll notice that I've only mentioned 12 pitchers. The last spot is most likely to go to Grant Anderson, an uncomfortable at-bat for right-handers, but he's faced some problems with left-handed hitters this year and would be a great place for a manager to bring left-handed bats off the bench. Anderson would be a strong weapon for a trio such as Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman and Tyrone Taylor, for instance—but pinch-hit specialist Michael Conforto could thwart even a well-made plan if Anderson is trapped in the game by the three-batter minimum rule. Alternatively, they could bring a third catcher in Bo Naylor. This allows for more liberal, aggressive use of Sánchez as a bench bat or even a starting option against left-handers, filling the DH spot. That would allow the Brewers to put Vaughn, Contreras, Bauers and Sánchez into the same line-up against a southpaw starter—something that will be tempting against teams like the Phillies, who have Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez leading their rotation. One of their wild card arms is more likely, of course. It's unlikely that Brandon Woodruff is ready to go in the playoffs, especially the NLDS, but who knows. Then you have a unique arm like Coleman Crow, who could expose hitters with susceptibility to spin or breaking pitches. Perhaps Kyle Harrison rediscovers his confidence and command out of the bullpen, to the point where the Brewers trust him in the postseason. The only spot I'm genuinely undecided on is the 26th man, but Anderson gets the nod because his ability to attack right-handed pockets gives Murphy another matchup weapon without forcing a major change to the pitching plan. All in all, the postseason roster should look like this: Would you agree? Or would you go in a different direction? let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I think from a deception point of view, 100%. The cutter to right handers is interesting as it does provide a bridge linking the East/West pitches, but that arm angle does make it easier to pick up, so I think location is absolutely critical for him with the cutter. To be fair I think it's worked against left handers too, May has typically struggled vs left handers but since joining the Brewers he's actually looked really good against them, it's the right handed side of the platoon where he's seen a lot more damage than is typical for him. the use of the cutter against right handers seems to be getting picked up as he's given up an expected slugging of .609 vs right handers on the cutter in August. At least if it's the four-seamer, the extra rise up in the zone can play up better and survive in isolation, so perhaps that's a better pitch mix if he wants more than two offerings vs right-handers.

Image courtesy of Tanner Pearson-Imagn Images Dustin May has enough weapons to attack hitters in almost any way imaginable. He isn't just mixing six pitches; he's essentially operating with two different arsenals. Unfortunately, the arm slot he uses to deliver them gives hitters an important clue about what's coming. This weakness actually stems from one of his strengths—one of the reasons the Brewers targeted him at the trade deadline. He's comfortable pronating as he releases the ball, despite a supination bias. He has three distinct fastballs to show for it, to go with two wicked, high-spin breaking pitches and a deadly changeup. He should have the pitches to adapt to any hitter. He has room to adjust his game plan depending on the pitches with which he's feeling comfortable on any given day. The interesting part is that May doesn't really operate with one six-pitch arsenal. A closer look at his pitch usage reveals two distinct groups of pitches that he deploys depending on the handedness of the hitter—and, perhaps more importantly, two noticeably different arm slots. Looking at the PitchProfiler graphic in the top right, we can see how dramatically his pitch selection changes against right- and left-handed hitters. Against right-handers, May's primary fastball is his sinker, with some cutter and the occasional four-seamer mixed in. His primary breaking ball is the sweeper. That sinker/sweeper combination is particularly interesting because of how closely May can match their release characteristics. The lower arm angle enhances the east/west movement by letting May get more around the side of the ball, and can be further enhanced from his extreme position on the first-base side of the rubber. The bigger story is what happens when he moves between those pitches and his other offerings. May has two quite distinct release points for what are essentially two separate arsenals. He lowers his arm slot for his sinker, sweeper and changeup (ish), while averaging almost 10° higher for his four-seam fastball, cutter and curveball. That's a significant difference, and it gives hitters a visual clue about what's coming. If a hitter can identify May's arm slot early in the delivery, they may already have narrowed down the possibilities before the ball has even reached the plate. For example, a right-handed hitter who sees May come through the higher arm slot can reasonably expect either a cutter or four-seam fastball, particularly because May rarely uses his curveball against righties. Those two pitches also occupy a relatively similar velocity band, meaning there isn't a huge change in speed to disrupt timing. That doesn't make either pitch ineffective on its own, but it does reduce one of the biggest advantages of a diverse arsenal: making the hitter account for dramatically different speeds and movements from the same delivery. That could be one reason we've seen May get hit hard when he does leave pitches in the strike zone since joining the Brewers. The Baseball Savant graphic below does a great job of highlighting just how different those arm angles are: May's arm angles for his two pitch groups have been growing more disparate with each month of the season. His four-seam fastballs and cutters are averaging a higher arm angle than at any point in his professional career, while the sinker/sweeper are similar to where they started the year. Against left-handed hitters, the changes are also quite interesting. May's best start for the Brewers from a swing-and-miss standpoint came in his last appearance against the Reds, when he went heavily to his curveball against an aggressive lineup and scrapped the sweeper. He also went more to the four-seamer than the cutter, but that's just one game. In August, the Brewers tried to use his cutter as a primary offering to left-handers in order to help May with his traditional platoon splits, which have been noticeable throughout his career. Unsurprisingly (it's part of their M.O., really), they don't seem to be fans of his changeup. While the four-seamer and cutter are good pitches, being able to mix speeds more regularly would help May get more of that swing-and-miss. He's struggled to put away hitters in two-strike counts since joining the Brewers. It'll be fascinating to see how the curveball's usage continues throughout September. Sweepers traditionally don't play well to opposite-handed hitters, because they move toward the hitter's wheelhouse on the inner third of the plate. Ultimately, May's path to an October rotation spot may come down to how well he can make these two arsenals work together. He needs to rediscover the form he showed in May and June, but the Brewers have already demonstrated that they don't need every starter to work deep into games. They were comfortable using bullpen games and mixing and matching last year, so May doesn't need to become a traditional workhorse to have value in October. What he does need is a reliable way to get swings and misses. His lack of whiffs was concerning throughout August, but his most recent outing against a hot Cincinnati offense provided an encouraging glimpse of what makes May so intriguing. After giving up a homer on a mistake to Elly De La Cruz, he showed the adaptability that comes with having this many weapons, and when he commands those weapons, the results can be devastating. May has two distinct sets of weapons. Now, the Brewers and May have to figure out exactly how to deploy them without making him predictable. They don't have much time left to find the answer, but his last outing offered some reason for optimism. His next few starts could go a long way toward determining whether one of baseball's most interesting arsenals has a place in Milwaukee's October armory. View full article

Catch Probability - TJStats A great resource for this, it suggests Lara has made every possible catch since July 28th, and the only one he failed was a 5% catch probability effort. He hasn't had a lot of 2-4* opportunities but he's made every one that's come his way

The Wilson memo is beautiful tbf, Jim is so damn creative man

Baseball is baseball, facing the best offense with a wind blowing out against a ground ball pitcher like Peterson, there's always a chance. One could argue it's these exact conditions that the Brewers rotation is most prone to struggling against Anyway hopefully the right handers can get a hold of Peterson in ways they didn't last time out, but it's definitely advantage Brewers with their best performing starters on the mound over the next two games

Bjorn Johnson has been so dialled since the start of August (maybe further, but I only went that far back) I think he's been really difficult to pick up, getting a lot of called strikes, getting ahead a ton by the looks of things and then inducing some deadly chase. I believe he was a 23 or 24 11th round pick out of high school, and the recent results bear monitoring

Matt once challenged us to find a word of the day for our articles, so I do my best!. At first, I wondered if I had made up "inertiatic" although it made sense as an adjective. Glad you enjoyed!

True, but a gold glove in a corner outfield spot is very different to an above-average/plus defender in center field. On top of that, Frelick's lack of any real game time in CF is a fairly solid indicator the Brewers don't see him as that level of a defender. He's a good corner OF, in a position where some of the competition is a little iffy. Ian Happ has won a ton of LF gold gloves because of that, so while Frelick is a good corner OF, he doesn't compare well to Mitchell in that facet of the game

Image courtesy of Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images Jackson Chourio has been one of the Milwaukee Brewers' best hitters in 2026, sitting second behind Jake Bauers in home runs, wRC+ and slugging percentage. Yet despite that impressive overall production, Chourio has managed just 50 RBIs in just shy of 100 games. His frequent appearances at the top of the lineup and Milwaukee's lack of production behind him explain some of that, but there's a more interesting question hiding beneath the RBI total: does Chourio's approach at the plate change when there are runners on base? His RBI total isn't necessarily evidence of poor hitting, given his frequent spot at the top of the order, but it does raise an interesting question: does Chourio's offensive approach actually change when RBI opportunities arise? Let's take a look at his hitting metrics bit situation: Bases Empty Runners on Base Runners in Scoring Position Plate Appearances 252 185 119 Expected BA 0.296 0.205 0.199 Expected Slugging 0.547 0.371 0.289 Expected WOBA 0.388 0.273 0.247 BB% 8.70% 8.10% 10.90% K% 23.00% 25.40% 25.20% Hard Hit % 50.90% 41.30% 38.70% Chourio's expected offensive production drops dramatically when runners are on base. That's not something you would necessarily expect given how comfortable he's been under the spotlight in October, where Chourio has posted a 183 wRC+, but the difference in production raises the possibility that his approach is changing when the situation becomes more important. One of the best ways to investigate that is by looking at his swing decisions. Swing Decisions If we use FanGraphs to break down Chourio's swings by situation, a pattern begins to emerge. FanGraphs breaks the plate into three categories. The "heart" is self-explanatory, covering pitches over the middle of the plate. The shadow zone encompasses the ed ges of the strike zone, both inside and outside the ABS zone, while chase covers pitches comfortably outside the strike zone. Overall, Chourio is swinging more often at pitches over the middle of the plate, but he's also becoming more aggressive in each of the other zones: Pitchers are giving him less to hit over the heart of the plate and a lot more in the shadow zone, which suggests he's been on the receiving end of some good pitches. That's okay in two strike counts, but those pitches create a lot of weaker contact off Chourio's bat, and are bringing about cheaper outs early in an at bat when Chourio could be trying to gain count leverage and force hitter's into his hitting zone. That's one of the reason's he's been more successful with bases empty, he's waiting on his pitch to hit rather than forcing it against pitches on the edges of the strike zone. If we break the shadow zone down further, it's even more damning. Fangraphs has been able to separate the shadow zone that's inside vs outside the ABS strike zone, and it's outside the zone that Chourio is swinging at more often: The jump from a 45% swing rate in the outer shadow zone to around 60% with runners in scoring position is significant, and it appears to be where Chourio is losing some of the patience that makes him such an effective hitter. He's expanding the zone more frequently, and that can lead to weaker contact and less favorable counts. Overall, he's seeing fewer called strikes, more swinging strikes and fewer first-pitch strikes as the situation becomes more important. That points toward an approach that is becoming more aggressive as the pressure increases. The obvious solution is to retain the discipline that's served him so well with the bases empty, but whether Chourio can do that consistently in RBI situations remains to be seen. It's easy to forget that Chourio is just 22 years old. Yes, this is his third year in the major leagues, and there may be an expectation that he has a more concrete idea of his approach at the plate by now. At that age, however, he also doesn't have the same experience of dealing with adversity and pressure that comes with a longer career. Those experiences can be just as important in helping a young player manage difficult situations as anything he's doing mechanically at the plate. The good news is that Chourio has already shown he has an approach that works. With the bases empty, he's patient enough to wait for pitches he can drive, and the results speak for themselves. The challenge now is carrying that same discipline into situations where the temptation to do more is greatest. View full article