Jason Wang

A home run and a rookie's grand slam made for an exhilarating watch today as the Brewers played their first home game of the season against the New York Mets, then cruised to a blowout win. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Freddy Peralta - 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K (85 pitches, 51 strikes (70.0%) Home Runs: Brian Anderson (1), Brice Turang (1) Top 3 WPA: Freddy Peralta (.261), Brian Anderson (.184), Jesse Winker (.144) Bottom 3 WPA: Joey Wiemer (-.058), Christian Yelich (-.036), William Contreras (-.033) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Peralta Dazzles in First Start After a shaky first inning where he gave up two walks to Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor, Peralta pitched a total of six shutout innings while striking out seven batters. He mixed it up, utilizing a 96-MPH fastball and a slider with 30+ inches of vertical movement. The fastball ramped up to that velocity as the start progressed, after he sat in the low 90s over the first two frames, and the slider's nastiness seemed to be heightened by the contrast in speeds. Peralta looked like the All-Star we all know and love. If he’s able to remain healthy, he’ll bolster an already very strong pitching rotation in Milwaukee. It’s Turang Time Immediately following yesterday’s game where scoring was driven by walks and shallow singles, today’s game was powered by the long ball. After a fourth inning, two-run homer by Brian Anderson, rookie Brice Turang hit the first home run of his major-league career--a grand slam. A spectacle for the fans at American Family Field, it was also an emotional moment for Turang himself, and a perfect cap to a seven-run rally. Jesse Winker, Willy Adames, and William Contreras also contributed an RBI each to the scoring fun in the fifth, which doomed the Mets for the day. Yelich and Rowdy Struggle Christian Yelich had some difficulties at the plate, striking out four times with no hits and a lone walk. Furthermore, several of those strikeouts were whiffs on pitches outside of the strike zone. Other than his hitting, though, Yelich did have a stolen base and a nice sliding catch in the eighth inning against former teammate Omar Narvaez. Rowdy Tellez has also had an exceptionally slow start thus far, going 1-4 today and getting a total of just two hits in his first 15 at-bats of the season. On the bright side, he didn’t strike out at all today. What’s Next? This game demonstrated what the Brewers are capable of when everything is clicking. The offense was operating as a well-oiled machine, but Peralta’s pitching performance was an important and encouraging indicator, too. Bryse Wilson was also able to keep the Mets scoreless over the last three innings, giving up just one hit and three walks. The home series against the Mets continues tomorrow as Wade Miley goes head to head with Max Scherzer. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT B Wilson 0 0 0 0 49 49 Varland 19 0 0 12 0 31 Strzelecki 10 0 17 0 0 27 Payamps 0 0 0 23 0 23 Guerra 8 0 0 15 0 23 Williams 0 0 16 0 0 16 Bush 0 0 13 0 0 13 Milner 0 0 0 10 0 10 View full article

What seemed to be a low-scoring affair quickly became a wildly exciting display of baseball intelligence after a breakout inning by the Brew Crew in the sixth. It was all-hands on deck as the Milwaukee Brewers win their first series of the season and return home with a record of 2-1. Image courtesy of David Banks, USA Today Box Score SP: Eric Lauer: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (89 pitches, 53 strikes (59.6%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Brice Turang (.235), Jesse Winker (.169), Garrett Mitchell (.127) Bottom 3 WPA: Victor Caratini (-.096), Joey Wiemer (-.064), Javy Guerra (-.031) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Lauer Makes Strong Season Debut A bit of a rough start saw Lauer throw 21 pitches in the first inning and give up a 375-foot home run to Patrick Wisdom in the second, but he was able to refocus and hold the Cubs to just two runs in his five innings of work. Lauer’s persistence and ability to remain calm bodes well for future starts and potential playoff opportunities. Things got a little scary when Javy Guerra stepped on the mound. He showed his excellent stuff, throwing a sinker that almost touched 100mph with nearly 20 inches of both horizontal and vertical break, but he struggled immensely with control. He threw just five strikes in 15 total pitches, giving up a hit and two walks without recording a single strikeout. Luckily, his team's run support and limited outing prevented him from doing any serious damage, giving up just two earned runs in total. Base Hits for Everyone The Brewers exploded for five runs in the sixth inning despite no extra base hits. After a groundout by Victor Caratini, a Brice Turang walk, Joey Wiemer single, wild pitch by Julian Merryweather, and a Christian Yelich walk to load the bases, Jesse Winker hit a crucial two-run line drive single to ignite the scoring. Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez continued the onslaught with two more singles followed by a sacrifice fly by Brian Anderson and yet another single by Garrett Mitchell. The inning of punishment finally ended when Caratini struck out in his second at-bat of the inning. Is Winker Back in Business? After a rough season in Seattle, Brewers fans have been wondering if Winker would return to his all-star form. An 0-for-4 team debut didn’t make the greatest first impression but a crucial pinch hit appearance on April 1st and his three-RBI performance today set the stage for a much-needed redemption season. Of course, a three-game sample size isn’t much to go off of especially when his second game consisted of a single at-bat, but a powerful Winker consistently filling in the DH position could be exactly what the Brewers need to surge into the postseason. What’s Next? The Cubs were a formidable division foe to start the season, especially given their offseason additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Trey Mancini into the lineup. While there seem to be some apparent issues with bullpen consistency, the defensive abilities of the infield have been exceptional to start this season off. Rookies Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer have also shown pieces of excellence in their short-time in the majors thus far. With the absence of Luis Urias due to a hamstring injury, Turang especially has big shoes to fill at second base while Wiemer has the pressure of lofty expectations as one of the team's most highly touted prospects. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Varland 0 19 0 0 12 31 Strzelecki 0 10 0 17 0 27 Payamps 0 0 0 0 23 23 Guerra 0 8 0 0 15 23 Williams 0 0 0 16 0 16 Bush 0 0 0 13 0 13 Milner 0 0 0 0 10 10 B Wilson 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

A lot happened in the world of baseball in 2021. Fans were finally allowed to return after a quarantined 2020 season; we went back to watching 162 games; and Jesse Winker mashed baseballs like potatoes on Thanksgiving. In his best career year, he posted a slash line of .305/.394/.556, good enough for an OPS of .949 and an OPS+ of 143. How did we get from there to here? Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports After a trade that sent him and teammate Eugenio Suárez to the Seattle Mariners, Jesse Winker saw pretty significant regression in almost all offensive categories, posting a 2022 slash line of just .219/.344/.344--though that did constitute an OPS+ of 103. A pretty unpopular player in Seattle who was known as a defensive liability and instigator of colorful daytime brawls, Winker was shipped off to Milwaukee after just one year in the Pacific Northwest, in return for Kolten Wong. Unlike players like Jonathan India or Yasiel Puig, Winker’s decline wasn’t a result of regression to the mean following an anomalous breakout season. If anything, the decline itself was the anomaly. Winker’s career slash line from his debut in 2017 through his 2021 season is .288/.385/.504. Sure, Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is far more batter-friendly than T-Mobile Park in Seattle, but his career OPS+ of 129 adjusts for such ballpark factors and is still far clear of last year's figure. But why? Launch Angle - Not Just For Rocket Ships A few stats that I’ve recently been using to win more arguments on Twitter are the “x stats” - xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA. How these stats differ from their traditional counterparts is that they are meant to measure a hitter’s performance independent of opposing fielding. Using a mix of exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed (for certain batted balls), it measures how often similarly-hit balls end up as hits. This helps get a more isolated look at a player’s performance at the plate and diagnose what the possible culprit of a down year may be. I noticed that Winker's xBA was .249 for 2022, significantly lower than his xBA of .295 in 2021. His xSLG of .403 also showed major regression from 2021's figure of .524. This showed that something more intrinsic was the root cause, so let’s break down the three main factors to see if one saw significant change between his 2021 and 2022 seasons: 2021 2022 Career Avg. Exit Velocity (mph) 90.6 87.7 89.6 Max Exit Velocity (mph) 113.4 110.0 114.1 Avg. Launch Angle (degrees) 10.8 16.8 11.9 While his exit velocities remained relatively consistent with his 2021 and career numbers, his launch angle increased sharply in 2022. As a result, he had fewer line drives, fewer ground balls, and more pop-ups. Let’s go even deeper, and look at how certain samples of batted balls performed differently given different average launch angles to see if our hypothesis is true. First, let’s look at all of Winker’s balls that had a launch angle below this season’s average of 16.8 degrees. Of the 177 pitches that were hit, Winker’s BABIP was .350, dominated by shallow singles along with a handful of doubles. It’s hard to get extra-base hits while hitting at an average angle of -6 degrees, but like most contact-focused players, Winker did get on base. Additionally, his average exit velocity of 89.1 mph on these pitches aligns almost perfectly with his career average. Now let’s take a look at his batted balls that had a launch angle >16 degrees. The number of plate appearances is roughly the same, but there’s a clear difference in BABIP and exit velocity here. Furthermore, his launch angle in this sample averages 41 degrees. Judging by the spray chart, many of his batted balls end up being routine pop-ups. While all 14 of last season’s home runs are included in this sample, further digging shows that the steepest launch angle that resulted in a home run was 38 degrees, still lower than the sample average. In fact, 130 pitches in this sample had a launch angle higher than 28 degrees and had a BABIP of just .109. But what is the ideal launch angle? Like many things in the great sport of baseball, it depends. If you’re capable of launching baseballs into the upper deck, you might want to aim for a higher launch angle. That being said, shooting for a higher launch angle also typically results in more pop-ups and flyouts. A good example of this principle is 2022’s NL home run leader, Kyle Schwarber. He had a launch angle of 19.2 degrees and 46 home runs, but he also had a batting average of .218 and a BABIP of .240. Alternatively, if you don’t generate as much power and decide to be more of a contact hitter, you might opt for a lower launch angle, like 2022 NL batting title winner Jeff McNeil, who had an average launch angle of 12.8. There are obvious exceptions to this rule, such as Mike Trout (average launch angle of 24.6 degrees and a BABIP of .323) and Aaron Judge (62 home runs with an average launch angle of 15.0), but those are typically due to players possessing generational talent that transcends the mortal limitations that hold back the rest of the league. I’ve seen a few other sources claiming that his struggles in Seattle were due to constantly being shifted around in the lineup, locker-room drama, and injury risk. While those are all potential contributors, the main driver that stands out to me from a statistical perspective is this increased launch angle. In addition to his exit velocity numbers remaining relatively consistent, his plate discipline was exceptional. Winker walked an astounding 15.4 percent of the time in 2022. This means that he was still identifying good pitches to hit, just hitting them incorrectly. When Winker is going right, he will produce, with that discerning eye as the platform for it all. His newer, more vertically-inclined swing was, in my opinion, the primary culprit behind his Mariner mishaps. While it’s unclear whether he’ll be seeking to readjust his swing back to its former glory, Winker is undoubtedly hoping for a return to form as he heads into free agency in 2024. View full article

Everyone knows that the Brewers’ first year in the major leagues was 1970. However, not everyone knows that the team actually started in 1969, in Seattle. After what Lemony Snicket would call a series of unfortunate events, the team packed its bags and became the Brew Crew we know and love today. How did Seattle call it quits after just one hilariously catastrophic season? After the Kansas City Athletics moved to Oakland, Missouri senator Stuart Symington demanded that Major League Baseball create another team to replace the baseball diamond-shaped void in his life, threatening to pass legislation to weaken the special antitrust exemption held by the league that essentially allowed them to operate as a monopoly. This power move birthed the Kansas City Royals, and since MLB tended to grant expansion in pairs to keep numbers even, they also created a team in the Pacific Northwest that would come to be known as the Seattle Pilots. Seattle was a bustling metropolitan city in the 1960’s, becoming the third-largest city on the West Coast and serving as the home of the Seattle Rainiers, a popular minor-league team and member of the Pacific Coast League. Even before senator Symington’s fit, many teams, including those in Cleveland and Oakland, considered migrating to the Emerald City, but were ultimately held back by the limited seating capacity of the Rainiers’ home, Sick’s Stadium. Born out of an arson attack in 1932, Sick’s Stadium was a great minor-league field when it accommodated a capacity crowd of around 10,000 fans. With expansion coming on extremely short notice, Sick’s Stadium went from a community gathering place to a potential human rights violation. Renovation fell behind schedule, and on Opening Day, there weren’t even enough seats. Some fans were forced to wait outside of the stadium until their bleachers had been finished. Once more bleachers had been built, a few more fans were let in. Announcers in the press box were completely unable to see left field due to an obstructed view, so when balls were hit in that direction, they had to view the game through a carefully-angled mirror. There was no space for camera equipment nearer to the field, so photographers were stationed on the roof. But worst of all, in a cruelly ironic twist for a ballpark known as Sick’s Stadium, the plumbing was completely unable to handle the added stress of 14,000 additional spectators. Showers, toilets, and sinks all failed, unable to sustain the water pressure necessary to provide luxuries such as washing your hands for food service or relieving yourself during the seventh-inning stretch. To rectify this, portable toilets were brought in and were a somewhat satisfactory solution until a fan passed out inside one of them and was accidentally locked inside all night by a staff member. Inadequacies of the stadium were well-known and MLB explicitly outlined in the expansion agreement that it was to be used solely in the interim, while a new, domed stadium was being built. Furthermore, the Pilots’ debut was originally slated to be in the 1971 season, but Senator Symington, sitting atop his throne on Mount Olympus, demanded that the Royals start their season as soon as possible. Like a child on Christmas Eve, he simply couldn’t bear to wait any longer. While Kansas City already had the infrastructure needed to support a professional baseball team, it forced the Pilots to make do with what they had. Such putrid conditions led to poor fan reception, ranking it 20th out of 24 teams in terms of attendance (a 64-98 record and last-place finish in the newly created AL West didn’t help either). Poor attendance led to poor ticket sales, and to the eventual bankruptcy of the team after just one year. In a desperate attempt to offload the team, majority owner Dewey Soriano met with Bud Selig, former minority owner of the Milwaukee Braves, who was also trying to replace the baseball-sized void in his life by bringing a major-league team back to Milwaukee. Following other offers and further political strong-arming by the two Washington Senators and state attorney general, the Seattle Pilots were finally declared bankrupt six days before the start of the 1970 season and given the green light to head to Milwaukee. Milwaukee mostly let go of the dark past of its predecessor, but one thing that remains is the blue and yellow color scheme for jerseys and branding. In fact, currently sitting peacefully in what is now a Lowe's warehouse is almost all that’s left of the Pilots’ legacy. A small sculpted figure of a baseball player commemorates the former location of home plate in Sick’s Stadium before it was torn down. The Pilots' brief history is a somewhat sad but absolutely entertaining piece of Brewers trivia that I hope you will pull out the next time you’re at Thanksgiving dinner. View full article

In this second part of our preview of the 2023 Brewers' starting pitchers, we tremulously leave behind the golden aces atop the rotation, and begin to tackle the muddle emerging in the middle of that group. Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports Freddy Peralta and Eric Lauer can make you nervous in a hurry. They've been the breakout starters of the last two seasons in Milwaukee, stabilizing the rotation for long stretches behind Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, whom we discussed at length yesterday. With Peralta's lingering health questions and the disastrous results of Lauer's spring starts, though, the understudies suddenly look much less like fair facsimiles of the leading men. Freddy Peralta: Recovering Cannibal We’re soon going to see just how far great extension on an average-plus fastball can take a pitcher, unless Peralta can regain what he lost in 2022 and add a bit of pitching maturity to the mix, to boot. That’s not a comment on his maturity as a person, but he’s well into his big-league career, and he still hasn’t progressed from a thrower into a pitcher. He has to blossom as a craftsman in the art of pitching in order to become a more consistent force in the rotation. Peralta throws his four-seamer about 55 percent of the time to both righties and lefties. He throws his curve about 15 percent of the time to both, too. He uses his changeup twice as often as his slider against lefties, and his slider three times as much as his changeup against righties, but that’s the extent of the variation in his approach. Last year, almost completely regardless of count, he stuck to those ratios. He did try to steal strikes with the curve a bit more often on the first pitch, but that was the only wrinkle in his sequencing. It’s not enough. He has to set hitters up better in order to get more out of his stuff. He also needs to get back to having a distinct and useful slider, or else none at all. Last year, his curveball cannibalized the slider, and it made a bit of a slush where his two good and distinct breaking balls had been. Health issues will always be the biggest question mark around Peralta, but even if he holds up well all season, he has to answer these questions about his repertoire and its utility, too. Eric Lauer: Effectively Wild, and Vice Versa At what point do we start to attach real concern to poor spring training numbers? That question has as many answers as you can find players about whom to ask it. For veterans like Lauer, you usually do well not to let much of anything you see in the Cactus League dramatically alter what you previously thought. Then again, though, it's not as though Lauer is a bulletproof ace, proven and unquestioned in his role. Nor are some of the struggles he's encountered this spring entirely new or unfounded in the profile he's sketched into the record books in bis previous seasons. We also know, thanks to a study presented almost a decade ago by analyst Mike Rosenheck, that there is some signal (however drowning it might often be in noise) in spring training numbers--especially strikeouts and walks. Well, Lauer has faced 42 batters in three appearances this spring. He's walked six of them, fanned only five, and been lifted twice mid-inning, only to return the following frame to try to finish his work--all contributing to an ERA over 11.00. That last number probably needn't be taken seriously, but the others must be. He's been so ineffective that he's barely been able to work his way up toward the workload the team will need from him if he's going to be their fourth starter come early April. I wrote much about Lauer last month, focused especially on his odd splits and his migrations around the rubber, trying to find the optimal angles for his unique repertoire. He hasn't found them, and this spring has exposed some of the dangers that poses for him. He persists in trying to make his curveball work. Not only hasn't it done so, but he's spent the spring getting hit hard because he has hung that pitch (which hitters can spot right out of his hand) in the heart of the zone repeatedly. He's been more effective, when indeed he's been effective at all, by missing his spots and getting hitters uncomfortable. He's been missing the zone by two feet with his slider and cutter much of the time, but that's prevented opponents from locking in on his fastball when he throws it right down the middle. Lauer has made one adjustment that figures to be for the better: he's setting up closer to the first-base side of the rubber. If he can start executing his firm breaking balls and gives up the ghost on the curve (except as a strike-stealing offering when hitters are looking for anything else), he can recover his form of the last two years. If not, the Brewers need to explore some complementary options. Summary ZiPS Projections Player ERA GS IP BB SO Freddy Peralta 3.67 20 103.0 38 125 Eric Lauer 4.02 25 138.2 47 133 As third and fourth starters go, Peralta and Lauer really are quite good. The modern standard for non-premium starting pitchers is low, so despite the serious questions one might have about Peralta's health and Lauer's performance, the Brewers clear the bar. They have the potential for four solid starters, three of whom could be downright dominant. As we've seen here, though, there are major questions once things go beyond Burnes and Woodruff. Baseball wouldn't be fun if it were predictable. In this segment of the roster, Brewers fans have the chance to have a whole lot of fun this year. View full article

In the early days of the franchise, the Milwaukee Brewers had three Black stars in their lineup, in Cecil Cooper, Ben Oglivie, and George Scott. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, though, their best players were White. In the mid-2000s, Prince Fielder led a revival of Black excellence for the Crew. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Prince Fielder’s baseball career is remembered for many things. Some remember him as a lighthearted player with a great sense of humor, eating fans’ nachos after chasing foul balls and commemorating walk-off home runs with his signature “bowling ball” celebration. Some remember him as a powerful presence at the plate, hitting 50 home runs in 2007 at the age of just 23 and becoming the youngest player ever to do so. Some remember him as a man tasked with succeeding his dad’s major-league legacy, becoming an iconic father-son duo with the likes of the Guerreros and Griffeys. If you’re a Brewers fan, you likely remember Fielder as a young, electric first baseman that was a glimmer of hope for the franchise. After four years of mauling minor-league pitchers, Fielder received his call-up in June 2005. He adapted quickly to the major leagues, placing seventh in Rookie of the Year voting in 2006. In his second full season in 2007, he had an OPS of 1.013; won his first Silver Slugger; received his first All-Star nod; was selected as the NL Hank Aaron Award winner; and came third in MVP voting. While it was an immensely impressive season, it wasn’t enough to break the Brewers' years-long playoff drought. The following season would be somewhat of a down year for Fielder as an individual, marred by a failure to negotiate a long-term deal with the Brewers. The one-year, $670,000 deal he ended up signing disappointed Fielder (to say the least), and it may have had a negative impact on his performance. There was also an in-game altercation with teammate Manny Parra, caused by Prince’s less-than-stellar defensive efforts. Of course, for a hitter of his talents, a “down year” means a slash line of .276/.372/.507, an OPS+ of 130 and helping his team return to the playoffs after a 26-year absence. While the Brewers fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, fans could tell that a bright future lay ahead for the young star, and it would seem that team management agreed. In 2009, Fielder and the Brewers were finally able to agree on a two-year, $18-million contract. While not quite the deal that he and superstar agent Scott Boras had been seeking, it was far better than the one he had signed the previous year. As if somehow motivated to earn every dollar of his new contract, Prince had the best offensive year of his career. With an OPS of 1.014 across all 162 games, he also led all major leagues in RBIs with 141 and hit 46 home runs, setting a new Brewers single-season record for RBIs in the process. He got another All-Star nod and some more MVP votes, but still wasn’t able to carry his team into October. Despite his Herculean efforts, the Brewers ended the season just below .500 and out of playoff contention, unable to repeat their playoff trip. The next year was more of the same, a relative down year for Fielder and another missed playoff berth for the Brewers. Then came 2011. Although he and the team were unable to work out a long-term contract, Fielder had another hallmark year. He hit .299, with an on-base percentage of .415 and a .566 slugging average. He played in all 162 games again. He led all major-league hitters in intentional walks with 32. He won his second Silver Slugger, earned a third All-Star nomination, and came third in MVP voting for a second time. He became one of three Brewers to have four 100-RBI seasons. He had a three-home-run game. But these individual achievements are not the only things that made this season so special. That 2011 campaign finally saw the Brewers put everything together. With 96 wins and a first-place finish in the NL Central, it seemed like it was finally their year. They beat the Diamondbacks in a nail-biting, five-game Division Series, and faced the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League pennant. Game 1 was held in Brewers territory, a perfect way to kick off a potential journey back to the World Series. In the bottom of the fifth inning, with the Brewers down 5-4, Fielder received an early Christmas gift, in the form of a 87-mph meatball from Jaime Garcia. With a swing and a crack, Prince launched a go-ahead two-run homer, rounding the bases to raucous cheers and giving his team the momentum they needed to win the first game of the series. Fielder hit exceptionally well in the 2011 NLCS, recording a series OPS of .960 to go along with his highlight-reel home run, but all good things must come to an end. The Cardinals won the series and subsequently the World Series, and his fifth-inning long ball would be Fielder's last great moment in Milwaukee. He became a free agent the following offseason and finally received the lucrative contract he felt he had long deserved, a nine-year, $214-million commitment from the Detroit Tigers. Fielder had a few more productive years before retiring at just 32. Despite being a consistent starter for most of his career, he began to have serious neck issues in 2014, and surgery ended his consecutive-game streak at 547. It seemed like he had made a full recovery in 2015, appearing in 158 games for the Texas Rangers, but 2016 would be his final year in the big leagues. It was revealed that Prince had developed herniations in his neck, severely hampering his ability to play baseball and effectively forcing him to announce his retirement. So many things about Fielder’s career seem too short. It feels like his time with the Brewers, his postseason runs, and his overall career were taken from us before we were ready. Nonetheless, he was here for a good time, not a long time. While we may not see a first baseman hit 50 home runs in a single season or don the sunglasses of a random fan ever again, it’s all the more reason to look back and appreciate the truly novel career of Prince Fielder. View full article

At first glance, the major-league career of Cecil Cooper may seem statistically unimpressive. Slashing .298/.337/.466 (.803) over his 17-year career, and accumulating just 36.0 rWAR doesn’t necessarily roll out the red carpet to the Hall of Fame. Still, his legacy as a Brewer transcends the quantitative metrics typically used in recent discussions of past major-league careers. Cecil Cooper didn’t start his career in Milwaukee, instead making his debut in 1971 with the Red Sox and he spent his first six seasons in Boston. While he had fewer than 110 plate appearances in each of his first three seasons, he finally found his footing in 1974 when he found a full-time spot in the lineup. After productive years in ‘75 and ‘76, Cooper was traded to the Brewers and saw immediate improvement. He adopted the same batting stance as Rod Carew, allowing him to hit outside pitches more effectively. 1977 through 1985 was really when his career began to flourish. He made five All-Star appearances, earned three Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves, a Roberto Clemente Award, and averaged an OPS+ of 129 over 5,600 plate appearances. His most productive season was in 1980, when he hit an exceptional .352 while leading the American League in RBIs (122) and Total Bases (335). The numbers were good but weren’t enough to cement his name in the history books alone. The success of a single season is fleeting, so what makes Cecil Cooper one of the most important Brewers of all time? The date was October 10th, 1982. Game 5 of the ALCS was underway, and the California Angels were in Milwaukee, leading 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh. The Brewers had never been this deep in the playoffs. They made it to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history the previous season but lost in the ALDS to the New York Yankees in five games. Cecil Cooper stepped up to the plate with the team just one win away from the World Series. He hoped to shake off his uncharacteristically poor performance in the series to that point. Coming into Game 5, he was just 2-for-16 (.125) in the series. Down 3-2 in the bottom of the 7th inning, Cooper came to the plate with two outs, and the bases loaded in the winner advances, loser-goes-home game. He was 0-for-3 in the Game and 2-for-19 (.105) in the series. With Luis Sanchez on the mound, Cooper took a 1-1 fastball on the outer part of the plate and lined it to left field. The single scored Charlie Moore and Jim Gantner and gave the Brew Crew a 4-3 lead. That pitch, and his ability to hit it more effectively, was the exact reason he decided to change his entire stance. Ironically, as the raucous screams of the Wisconsin faithful filled the air, Cooper stood at first base, right next to Angels' first baseman, Rod Carew. The noise was so loud that the audio on the television broadcast crackled. This hit had a Win Probability Added of 39% and eventually punched the team’s tickets to their first and only World Series appearance. There would be 25 years between that hit and the Brewers’ next postseason appearance. Cecil Cooper went on to have brief careers as an agent and a coach, and he eventually spent parts of three seasons as manager of the Houston Astros. However, his two-out hit is one of the main reasons he’s in the Brewers Walk of Fame and Wall of Honor. For many, baseball is about something other than the advanced statistics and complex metrics we now use to evaluate players in the analytics era. Instead, it’s about magical moments such as these that live forever in the hearts and minds of those who watched. Cooper’s single wasn’t just the most memorable event in his career but likely that of every fan who was fortunate enough to be there in person on October 10th, 1982. View full article

Baseball is a team game, so while individual stats are important, there are often other variables to consider. It's the reason why some believe FIP to be more indicative of a pitcher's ability than ERA. With catchers, their defensive framing figures are directly affected by whoever is throwing to them. If a pitch is hard to hit, it might also be hard to frame. This is a continuation of examining William Contreras' defense behind the plate. If you'd like to catch up on part one of this piece, you can do so here. The Pitcher Picture While it's important to look at Contreras' defensive abilities, it's equally important to look at how they'll be affected by whoever is on the mound. Because preparation and results are strongly affected by a rotation's pitch arsenal, I wanted to see how his framing preferences sync up with the styles of some of his new teammates. Corbin Burnes The Brewers ace primarily relies on his cutter, which breaks toward Burnes' glove side, ending up in the middle or right portion of the zone. While used less frequently, his curveball and other pitches land closer to the middle-bottom boundary. Contreras may struggle with Burnes’s breaking balls but will likely synergize well with his cutter if it can land a little higher in the zone, especially since Contreras struggled with pitches in the bottom right corner. Brandon Woodruff Woodruff is a more traditional four-seam pitcher, with many of his pitches landing in the upper part of the zone. Unfortunately, many pitches on the edge hug the lower-left side, namely his sinker and change-up. The slider might be a nightmare for Contreras because of how close it is to the bottom-right corner, but luckily Woodruff throws it a mere 11.3% of the time. Freddy Peralta Peralta has the greatest shot at being Contreras’s new best friend in Milwaukee. Heavily reliant on high fastballs, his current arsenal seems to line up the best out of the other pitchers in the Brewers rotation. His curveball also has a decent amount of scatter, sometimes landing high or to the right of the zone, complementing Contereras’ abilities well if Peralta chooses to approach 2023 in the same way he did 2022. Devin Williams Like Peralta, the Brewers’ new standout closer has the potential to synergize well when throwing his high four-seamer. Still, his air-bending changeup might have to rely more on swinging strikes than called strikes, almost perfectly hugging the bottom edge of the strike zone. Fortunately for Wiliams and Milwaukee fans everywhere, it’s a pitch specializing in swinging strikes with a 43.9% Whiff% so Contreras might be more of a passive contributor. The Verdict There are a lot of things to like about Contreras’s game. He’s a great hitter and will bolster the Brewers' offense more than his predecessor. Still, we’ve yet to see if he will follow in the footsteps of his brother Willson by playing more like a designated hitter than a truly well-rounded catcher. On the bright side, William is very young at 25 and has the potential to blossom into an impactful, complete player. Already an All-Star in his first full season as a major leaguer, he’s shown that he’s capable of incredible things and has immense talent. I'm curious to see if the Brewers coaching staff will aim to improve his weak framing, slightly adjust the team's pitch sequences, do a bit of both, or do neither and just let him earn his keep by continuing to rake, hoping his offensive contributions outweigh his defensive detriments. Regardless of what the team focuses on in this upcoming season, he is an exciting addition to the lineup, and I look forward to seeing just how much he can accomplish as a part of the Brew Crew. View full article

Thanks Jake! He has so much raw talent and room for improvement, I can't wait to see him pair up with our pitchers.

Catcher is the hardest position in baseball - end of story. They have the same offensive expectations of any position player (that is, to hit the dang ball), and their defensive responsibilities are incredibly specialized. While you may see many utility players such as Luis Arraez, D.J. LaMahieu, and Ketel Marte switching between different infield and outfield positions, you rarely see catchers do anything else but catch. So what exactly makes their defensive role so unique? First and foremost, they have to catch the ball. They are on the receiving end of whatever their pitcher decides to throw and must secure the ball, no matter where it goes, in their glove or with their body. If a catcher cannot secure a pitch, it will result in a wild pitch (pitcher’s fault) or a passed ball (catcher’s fault), which may allow a runner to advance without getting a hit. Additionally, catchers are responsible for catching pitches in a way that increases the likelihood of being called strikes, even when outside the zone. This is called framing and is one of the main ways catchers can increase their defensive runs saved. In 2022, the AL Platinum Glove Winner was Jose Trevino, who saved an incredible 17 runs purely from his framing prowess. Their other defensive responsibilities include protecting home plate from dastardly baserunners trying to score for their team, catching runners trying to steal bases, coordinating pitch sequences, and signaling what pitches they believe should be thrown in an at-bat. Because of this special relationship between catchers and pitchers, the tandem is often called a set of batterymates. Chemistry is important, and long-lasting duos can be incredibly successful. Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina recently set a record for the greatest number of starts as a pair, notching 325 appearances for the St. Louis Cardinals. With William Contreras coming over in one of the most convoluted 3-way deals in recent memory, I wanted to take a closer look at his defensive capabilities as a catcher since one look at this 2022 slash line of .278/.354/.506 and OPS+ of 138 tells you that he’s pretty dandy at the plate. Frame Finish So how does framing work, exactly? The key is to deceive the umpire by catching pitches in a way that makes it seem like they ended up in the strike zone, essentially earning their team more strikes than were thrown. This is a massive advantage since good framing allows pitchers to get ahead in the count and potentially earn more strikeouts. It can also put opposing batters on tilt and push them to capitulate mentally. A memorable example of this in recent Brewers memory is Kyle Schwarber’s ejection after getting struck out by Josh Hader on a highly questionable called strike three. In the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, Schwarber worked a full count before a Hader pitch on the bottom right corner that should’ve been called a ball was instead ruled a strike by your favorite umpire’s favorite umpire, Angel Hernandez. While this call was probably due to an umpiring error more than anything, there is some framing being done by Omar Narvaez, which makes the pitch look like it landed just inside the right side of the zone. Not only did this allow Hader to record a crucial out, but Schwarber was also ejected for his emotional outburst, undoubtedly affecting the overall attitude of the Phillies dugout and playing a part in the Brewers notching the win. It's Poppin' Time Pop time is a much simpler statistic. It simply measures how long a catcher can get the ball to his intended fielder after receiving a pitch. While this typically measures throws to second base, third-base pop time is also measured, although with much smaller sample sizes. This is done to put out runners trying to steal and is an integral part of being a catcher. Those with excellent pop times can consistently shut down steal attempts and keep baserunners from moving when they shouldn’t be. Pop time and base stealing are a game of milliseconds. Of all catchers with more than five attempts thrown to second base, J.T. Realmuto led the league with an average pop time of 1.82 seconds. The slowest pop time in the league was Stephen Vogt, with a pop time of 2.12 seconds, a difference of less than half a second. What About William? While he’s had a relatively short career in the major leagues, Contreras’s stats indicate that he is a far better player offensively than defensively. His -4 defensive runs saved paint a lukewarm picture of his ability behind the dish, primarily driven by his relatively poor framing. His pop time was slightly above average at 1.97 seconds in an albeit small sample size, but his -3 catcher framing runs stands out as the main driver behind his defensive weakness. To diagnose the problem, let’s compare and contrast his Statcast Catcher Framing results to the framing-extraordinaire mentioned above, Jose Trevino. William Contreras Jose Trevino Catcher Framing Runs -3 17 Strike Rate 45.1% 53.8% Zone 11 - % of Called Strikes 18.8% 20.6% Zone 12 - % of Called Strikes 49.6% 44.9% Zone 13 - % of Called Strikes 23.8% 19.7% Zone 14 - % of Called Strikes 59.5% 71.1% Zone 16 - % of Called Strikes 64.5% 69.1% Zone 17 - % of Called Strikes 25.9% 40.5% Zone 18 - % of Called Strikes 43.6% 62.3% Zone 19 - % of Called Strikes 20.3% 30.9% While Contreras is adequate at framing high pitches, he needs help with the rest of the zone, particularly low pitches, compared to Trevino. This means that pitches with a downward break (e.g., sinkers, curveballs, sliders, change-ups) may cause issues and result in more balls and, consequently, more walks. He’s also slightly better at handling pitches on the ride side of the zone than the left, so he’ll frame right-handed cutters more effectively than two-seamers and vice versa for their left-handed equivalents. Of course, much of this data is dependent on who is actually throwing him the ball. Last year, Contreras was catching for the likes of Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider. Those pitchers have different arsenals, styles, and preferences than his new squad, so it remains to be seen whether he'll end up being better or worse defensively, but we can actually make some assumptions based on available data. We'll be exploring that train of thought tomorrow in part 2: how does Contreras' catching style mesh with the tendencies of Brewer pitchers? View full article

What makes a good closer? For the most part, they're expected to have high velocity and otherworldly "stuff", especially since they're often brought in at the eleventh hour and are only expected to pitch for a single inning. You can see this preference for speed by taking a closer look at some of the best closers in the MLB and their average pitch velocities in 2022: Edwin Diaz (NYM): 99 mph FF, 91 mph SL Emmanuel Clase (CLE): 100 mph FC, 92 mph SL Jhoan Duran (MIN): 101 mph FF, 88 mph CB Andres Munoz (SEA): 100 mph FF, 89 mph SL Liam Hendriks (CWS): 98 mph FF, 89 mph SL For the most part, this makes a lot of sense. Longevity, stamina, and pitch diversity don't really matter for closers since ideally, they'll face just three batters before calling it a day and collecting their game check. Most closers choose to master one fastball and one breaking ball pitch to secure the save, but while doing some research into the Brewers bullpen, I noticed something particularly interesting about Devin Williams - he pretty much operates opposite to most closers, and he's really good at it. Rather than depending on velocity to overpower opposing batters, Devin Williams instead relies primarily on off-speed pitches, namely the change-up. In 2022, his most complete season as a closer, he threw a change-up 58% of the time, averaging a velocity of 83 mph, slightly slower than the league average. He utilizes a four-seam fastball 38% of the time and a cutter 4% of the time, both pitches arriving to the plate right around league-average velocity. Although not quite as stellar on paper as his breakout rookie year in 2020, his 2022 season was arguably more impressive all-around, namely due to pitching 60 innings as opposed to just 27 in the COVID-shortened 2020. With an ERA of 1.93, an ERA+ of 205, FIP of 2.01, and WHIP of 1.005, Williams was an integral part to the Brewers success last season and he will be an important piece of future playoffs pushes. But how can a closer be so successful while having a strategy so counterintuitive to the current philosophy surrounding relief pitching? The Last Airbender Two of the qualities behind a good change-up are how much slower it is than a pitcher's fastball and its movement. Williams' change-up has 42.7 inches of vertical drop and 19.0 inches of horizontal break, both figures that are among the league's best. Combined with the inherent deception from a change-ups slower speed, this pitch is immensely difficult to hit, explaining his Whiff% and K% numbers of 43.9% and 36.6%, respectively. Rob Friedman, also known as The Pitching Ninja for his pitching-focused social media content, gave this pitching the loving name after remarking that it was simply too nasty to be lumped in with other change-ups in the league today. What makes this weapon even more effective is how much it differs from his four-seam fastball. It comes in with only 14.5 inches of drop and 12.2 inches of horizontal run, which is much less of a moving target, but comes in at 11 mph faster. It's a pretty typical four-seamer, but because many are expecting a pitch with devious movement, many watch it blow by them, straight into the center of the strike zone. This explains the 47.3% strikeout rate and the PutAway% of 30.1% associated with this pitch. Alexa, Play Narcos by Timmy Trumpet Devin Williams wasn't supposed to be the Brewers' closer. For most of his relatively short major league career, he was a reliever, and a damn good one at that. He accomplished the rare feat of winning Rookie of the Year in 2020 as a non-closer relief pitcher, but in Milwaukee, Josh Hader was still the big man on campus. That is, until Hader saw a complete meltdown towards the end of his time with the Brewers before being traded to the Padres. Williams stepped up to the mound and dazzled in his new role, sticking to the pitch arsenal that had worked for him and rejecting modernity, logging 15 saves with his unorthodox closing style. When many people think about Brewers pitching, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff jump to mind, but in his new role, Williams may start to occupy more of that attention. With major moves in free agency that saw important position players Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong shipped off to new teams and William Contreras picked up to serve as as the new catcher, the strength of the Brewers pitching staff is now a more important piece than ever to the team's playoff puzzle and is their main competitive advantage. While he may not get a live musical performance introduction with trumpets and dancing baseball-headed mascots, he will still be one of the best closers in the league and definitely a fun player to watch in the coming year.