Bashopolis

Chourio is a top prospect but I don't anticipate that he will be starting the season with the Brewers for two reasons: 1. Player clock management: The Brewers get Chourio under team control for six years. They want to have those be the most productive years possible. There is no reason to rush him to the majors before they are sure he can be very productive. Chourio had a good but not great minor league season at AA. (.280 .336 .467 .803) which he has followed up with a very good season of winter ball. He has 24 plate appearances at AAA. The Brewers call up Chourio when they have confidence that he can give them a .900 OPS at the MLB level or he has nothing left to learn in the minors. He hasn't reached either of these yet. 2. The outfield is crowded and the Brewers need some time to figure things out. Spring training may be helpful, but the Brewers may still be using April and May to figure out who is a keeper between Mitchell, Frelich, Weimer and Taylor. Chourio comes up when the Brewers are ready to pencil him into the line up ever day and he will significantly out produce the players he is replacing. They don't really know what they have in the three rookies and may wonder if Taylor's hot September is an omen of things to come. Out of that competition among last year's rookies and Taylor, the Brewers hope to find two players that OPS above .750. They need to give at bats to see who amongst the other outfielders can hit. Chourio hype is a lot of fun. But he has yet to prove he is elite in any league and won't be starting 2024 with the Brewers.

Any discussion of the Brewers trading a catcher begins with looking at the progress made by William Contreras. During the off season prior to the 2023 season, the Brewers were part of the three-team trade that brought Contreras to the Brewers from the Atlanta Braves. At the time Contreras was seen as a young player with great offensive upside but also as a defensive liability. The offensive profile didn’t change during Contreras’ first season with the Brewers. (.289 average, .367 OBP, .457 slugging for a .825 OPS) to win the silver slugger award for catchers in the National League. What did improve is his defensive profile. Contreras worked and improved his defensive game to become a slightly above average defensive MLB catcher. (defensive runs prevented 13th, 6th in pitch framing, 11th blocking pitches and a less impressive 34th in throwing runners out at second at 17%.) (Stats from Baseball savant) In the wings is prospect Jeferson Quero. He will likely begin the year at AAA this year with a potential call up during 2024. Quero consistently rates as one of the Brewers top three prospects. He has hit at each level of the minor leagues while playing up two or three levels for his age. (.278, .349. 445 for a .779 OPS) And he possesses the defensive chops that Contreras is working to achieve. Quero was eighth in the Southern League with a caught stealing rate of 35%. Quero is naturally a better defensive catcher than Contreras. If Quero continues to progress, the Brewers are going to have to make a choice about their future behind the plate. Contreras is 25 and won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season. Quero is only 20. There is the potential to move Contreras to another position. But if his catching ability continues to be at least average, moving him to first base is wasting his defensive value. If the Brewers trade either catcher this off season it will be a telling sign that the Brewers are either moving into a rebuild mode, (trading Contreras) or a more aggressive win now mode (trading a top prospect Quero) than is typical for this team. It is unlikely to see a trade this off season. The Brewers thoughts on the future of Contreras could become a bit more clear this spring training if we see Contreras play more at another position on the diamond. Hopefully the Brewers are also exploring if Contreras could be an option at third base rather than at first. If Contreras’ future position will be catcher; than a trade closer to the trade deadline or after the 2024 season is likely. If at the deadline, this will likely be a trade for longer term contributors rather than a trade for a rental player. More likely they will be looking to both improve the current team and also player(s) that will contribute in 2025 and beyond. Trading an elite level catcher or catching prospect doesn’t happen often. The Brewers will be in the fortunate position of having this type of trade chip available. This trade will be one of the biggest moves of the Matt Arnold tenure as General Manager and will impact this team’s ability to compete for division titles for the next four to six seasons.

Considering the quality of their bullpen coming back from last year, I wonder if they have much room for a Rule 5 relief pitcher. But if they are headed into a reload/rebuild they could actual trade one or more of their more established bullpen arms to make some room.

The Brewers spent a lot of time and energy promoting “The Freshmen” during the 2023 season. They invited fans into a reality show about the future of the team. Unfortunately, the reality was that this group of players weren’t as good as many fans hoped once they got to The Show. Mitchell has shown promise, but he has some peripheral stats that could be red flags and he may be injury prone. Turang has found a way to strike out much more at the MLB level. Weimer isn't Hunter Pence and perhaps shouldn't attempt to swing like him. And Frelick has shown some good bat to ball skills; but may have difficulties driving the ball against better pitching. Their defense is great. But their hitting is suspect. Should we have expected more from Brewers position player prospects? History tells us that perhaps we shouldn’t have. Since 2011, only five position players drafted by the Brewers have spent more than three years playing for Milwaukee: Scooter Gennett (16th round draft choice) has been the most successful offensively with a .738 OPS in four years with the Brewers. Logan Schafer (3rd round) premiered in 2011 and was a serviceable fourth outfielder. Orlando Arcia (international signing) debuted in 2016 and was the starting shortstop for a period of time Keston Hiura (1st round) debuted in 2019 and spent the next four years trying to redo his swing every eight months. Tyrone Taylor (2nd round) debut was also in 2019 and he has yet to be a consistent contributor offensively. There are not other MLB position players that began in the Brewers system and have found success for other teams -- there are. But considering the Brewers troubles in developing players that stay in Milwaukee, it may not be fair to give the Brewers system much credit for their development. Among those that didn’t find success are first round draft choices Clint Coulter, Victor Roache, Jake Gatewood and Corey Ray. The 2023 rookies were supposed to prove that the efforts to improve the position player drafting and development are working. But things haven’t gone as well as planned. Due to injury or underperformance, the unheralded minor league free agent Andruw Monasterio was perhaps the Brewers position player rookie of the year in 2023. This isn’t to say that “The Freshmen” can’t have a happy ending. And perhaps Chourio, Quero and Black will make the next class even better. But at least for position players, the Brewers reality hasn’t matched the prospect hype for a number of years. Let’s hope the sequel is better than The Freshmen proved to me.

As we look towards 2024, one position of strength on the Brewers seems to be outfield. The Brewers have five outfielders coming back that played in at least fifty games during 2023: Joey Wiemer (132 games), Christian Yelich (122) Tyrone Taylor (75) Blake Perkins (61) and Sal Frelick (55). If you add Garrett Mitchell, who prior to injury was penciled in as the starting center fielder in 2023, there are six outfielders. And there is a hope that top prospect Jackson Chourio will perform well and push his way into an everyday position in the outfield during the 2024 season. This seems like a lot of outfielders. But it is also a lot of unproven young players that have some significant injury history and available minor league options. And the Brewers could have one or more of the outfielders spend considerable time at the Designated Hitter position. If the Brewers plan on carrying five outfielders at a time on the twenty-six man roster with this mix providing 120 games played at designated hitter; than that will be a total of 606 games played by those five roster spots. Not including Chourio, the other outfielders played a total of 445 games in 2023. The injuries to Frelick, Taylor and Mitchell substantially reduced the number of games they were available to play. But Taylor and Mitchell have yet to prove that they can get through a season without significant injuries. Even if the Brewers add Chourio into this mix for one hundred games at the MLB level, this still leaves the Brewers with over fifty games more games to be covered to reach the 606 total games. And each of these young outfielders may be ready to start at the major league level, but each also has shown some significant holes in their development: Frelick – ability to drive the ball Mitchell – low contact rate Taylor – consistency Wiemer – on base ability and in-game power Perkins – anything offensive at the MLB level Although there may be a lot of potential, there is also reason to be concerned that any two or three of these players will flame out at the major league level or face a long injury list stint. And there are more options available here than at an Old Country Buffett. Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchel and Perkins may all be optioned to the minor leagues in 2024. The Brewers formula for winning during the regular season has been to always have MLB ready players available at AAA. Having any one or two of these outfielders playing for the Nashville Sounds; but available at a moments notice would continue to support the win through depth philosophy. This isn’t to say that Milwaukee won’t make a trade of one of the outfield prospects at the right time. But there doesn’t seem to be a log jam of proven talent that will force the Brewers into making a trade this winter. Hopefully, through 2024, one or two young outfielders will take the next developmental step and cement their role as an everyday MLB outfielder. When that happens, the Brewers could look to trade from the outfield depth during the season.

There is the parable of the scorpion and the frog. The scorpion asks the frog to carry him across the river and then halfway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog. The frog asks, “Why? We are both going to die.” The scorpion replies that he couldn’t help himself, “It is in my nature. It is how I am.” At first look, Craig Counsell leaving his home town team, to go to the arch rivals may seem very wrong. Counsell is a Brewer. It is who he is. But like all of us, Counsell is more than one thing. He is more than a Brewer. Fans will focus on the idea that Counsell should be loyal; but for Counsell, loyalty may be important but other things drive him. And as someone who has grown up around baseball, Counsell also recognizes that loyalty isn’t really an attribute that is highly valued in his profession. Baseball players by nature move from team to team. In what other employment setting, does the employer have the right to trade you to a rival company and make you move across the country? Counsell may still be a Brewers fan; but he understands that in the show, loyalty is about as thick as the jersey you are wearing today. Beyond everything else, Craig Counsell is a competitor. As a player and then as a manager, he strived to be the absolute best with the talent he was given. As a player he never had the talent to reach that level. But as a manager he might. The way to prove he is the best manager is to replicate the success he had with the Brewers with another team. Also, at very least, he got paid like he is the best ever, and that in its self is a win. The Chicago Cubs are providing him the opportunity to prove his mettle. Is Counsell one of the best managers ever? He wasn’t going to find that answer if he just stayed with the Brewers. He will find it, as he tries to manage the Cubs. Can we really blame him for wanting to take on that challenge? After all, we always knew it was in his nature.

The Brewers will need both a first baseman and hitters that can add production at the designator hitter position. Santana could be an answer at either position even if the team retains Mark Canha. The question is of course budget; but it doesn't seem like Santana will be much more costly than Rowdy would have been if kept. And there really isn't much else available on the open market at first base right now.