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Freshmen -- The Sequel


Bashopolis

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The Brewers spent a lot of time and energy promoting “The Freshmen” during the 2023 season.  They invited fans into a reality show about the future of the team.  Unfortunately, the reality was that this group of players weren’t as good as many fans hoped once they got to The Show.

Mitchell has shown promise, but he has some peripheral stats that could be red flags and he may be injury prone. Turang has found a way to strike out much more at the MLB level. Weimer isn't Hunter Pence and perhaps shouldn't attempt to swing like him.  And Frelick has shown some good bat to ball skills; but may have difficulties driving the ball against better pitching. 

Their defense is great. But their hitting is suspect.  Should we have expected more from Brewers position player prospects?  History tells us that perhaps we shouldn’t have. 

Since 2011, only five position players drafted by the Brewers have spent more than three years playing for Milwaukee:

Scooter Gennett (16th round draft choice) has been the most successful offensively with a .738 OPS in four years with the Brewers. 

Logan Schafer (3rd round) premiered in 2011 and was a serviceable fourth outfielder.

Orlando Arcia (international signing) debuted in 2016 and was the starting shortstop for a period of time

Keston Hiura (1st round) debuted in 2019 and spent the next four years trying to redo his swing every eight months.

Tyrone Taylor (2nd round) debut was also in 2019 and he has yet to be a consistent contributor offensively. 

There are not other MLB position players that began in the Brewers system and have found success for other teams -- there are. But considering the Brewers troubles in developing players that stay in Milwaukee, it may not be fair to give the Brewers system much credit for their development.

Among those that didn’t find success are first round draft choices Clint Coulter, Victor Roache, Jake Gatewood and Corey Ray. 

The 2023 rookies were supposed to prove that the efforts to improve the position player drafting and development are working.  But things haven’t gone as well as planned.  Due to injury or underperformance, the unheralded minor league free agent Andruw Monasterio was perhaps the Brewers position player rookie of the year in 2023. 

This isn’t to say that “The Freshmen” can’t have a happy ending.  And perhaps Chourio, Quero and Black will make the next class even better.  But at least for position players, the Brewers reality hasn’t matched the prospect hype for a number of years.  Let’s hope the sequel is better than The Freshmen proved to me. 

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I think it is too early to say on last year’s group, especially given the context of the year. Mitchell and Frelick (and Taylor) getting hurt early forced them to keep playing Wiemer even when it became obvious he could use more triple-A time. The key, though, is going to be producing enough legitimate prospects where when a couple inevitably don’t develop it isn’t as big of a deal.

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21 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I think it is too early to say on last year’s group, especially given the context of the year. Mitchell and Frelick (and Taylor) getting hurt early forced them to keep playing Wiemer even when it became obvious he could use more triple-A time. The key, though, is going to be producing enough legitimate prospects where when a couple inevitably don’t develop it isn’t as big of a deal.

I tend to not put much stock in bad rookie performances. Wiemer has long-term concerns with his contact but we'll see how that progresses in the next couple of years.

If a team is going to operate in the market the Brewers operate (~20th in payroll), we all have to grin and bear it as rookies and young players fall on their faces.

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Too early to make determinations on The Freshman. Giving up too early cost us Scooter Gennett.

But there's a lot to be learned from last year. For me, it's that offensive player development has been sub par for years.

Fundamentals haven't been stressed for years and it shows frequently. We were TERRIBLE getting men on base around.  Turang has to make better contact and put on some muscle in the off season so he doesn't look like a scarecrow by seasons end. He swung a tired bat by seasons end.. BUT, he's the ONLY Brewer that could advance runners with bunts and ground balls..We stole bases well (again, Turang was the best) and Yeli as well as others ran bases well.

Frelicks job and strength is getting on base. They tried to make him drive the ball and he neither drove the ball and stopped getting on base. There's too much evidence that the problem is in the player development and that's a coaching problem. 

Adames and Tellez hit homers and little else and were allowed to be lousy hitters two years running. Batting 3 and 4, they BOTH struggled to reach a .300 OBP and hit into DPs and struck out while running half speed in clutch situations.

Neither appeared concerned at their failures and Tellez is gone. Willy has had good September's to make his season numbers acceptable, but 3 to 4 months of nothing for the second year in a row makes him a must trade guy.

Hope Murphy has the guts to make this a productive offense again.

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Great blog post my friend!

All of these players have different ceilings, I'm still hot on Wiemer finding some really effective performance towards the end of the 2024 season, but  all have workons. Look at Henderson as a good example however, won rookie of the year after a horrid opening few months this season where he wasn't even close to the Mendoza line in May

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