strawbossisevil

Well then take necessary precautions to prevent passing it on (wearing a mask, f.e.). No matter what just going about things like normal when you are sick is rude and out of place. I heard (the Mexican papers, and through WHO announcements) that this flu is attacking those who are in their 20s to 50s, so it isn´t necessarily attacking the weak, as indicated earlier in the thread, but the healthy part of society.

Nice post Russ, this has been what I have been pointing to throughout this entire thread. There is no reason for some huge drop off from the guy as so many on here were predicting. I may not have taken FTJ´s bet, but I am still very confident that we´ll Suppan hovering right around 5 (perhaps a bit more, perhaps a bit less) by the end of the season. I think many people let the dollar signs get in the way of them objectively assessing Suppan´s ability (that he is a very solid #5 pitcher). As for those who are saying they are waiting to see how he does with a tight zone. I would imagine that any pitcher would put up below average numbers when the zone is tight. For a guy who has an ERA around 5, that may mean putting up numbers that are very below average. For a top of the rotation pitcher, that may mean having results of a mid to bottom of the rotation pitcher. I think it is pretty fair to say that no matter who the pitcher, the tighter the zone, the higher their ERA will go. It´s just the "higher" for a guy like Suppan is worse than a guy like Gallardo in most cases.

The Cub´s bullpen has been absolutely rotten so far this year, let´s hope as they continue to be overworked that they continue to destroy the Cubs playoff chances. How sweet would it be if they didn´t even get the wildcard after all the flapping of their gums they did this offseason. This is why they play the games, and don´t just put the preseason favorite in the playoffs.

Theriot´s one homer for the year (quite possibly the only one he´ll hit all season), a grandslam to put the Cubs up over Florida. Ridiculous.

Suppan´s ERA in his first two starts: 12.91 Suppan´s ERA in his next three starts: 2.95 Suppan is not nearly as bad as his first two starts, and they seriously skew his numbers in an unfavorable way. He is in no way as good as his last three starts either. Once again, his true talent probably lies in the high 4s or low 5s ERA wise. And as the sample grows larger, that is probably where his overall numbers will settle. This is why I and a few others were encouraging others not to be jumping off of bridges or talking about DFAing Suppan after the second start of the season.

Pretty good outing so far for Gallardo. Not much more could or should be said at this point. Edit: Nuts. Oh well.

I´d take Edmonds over Nelson in a heartbeat. I wonder how much Edmonds is asking for.

Some of the latest posts in this thread make my head hurt (incorrect capitalization, piss poor grammar, using quotation marks instead of apostrophes, poor spelling, etc.). Of the teams in baseball, the Brewers have the goods to bring in a Peavy. I doubt they do it, since I think they value the depth that they currently have in the minors, but I don´t think any one of us can rule out the possibility completely. At the very least it provides some interesting discussion trying to guess how much it would take to get him, and whether giving up such talent would be worth it (my vote is "no").

It should be mentioned that only three of the four runs were earned. 3 earned runs in 6 innings is probably about all you can ask from any team´s 5th starter.

I suppose that depends on how far Hughes stock has fallen with the Yankees. I would guess that he is no longer considered as valuable as you think End.

I think the point would be to maximize on what you get for Hall. If trading Hall and bringing up Gamel nets you Hughes, I think it would be foolish to not do so, since we are in desperate need of pitching, now and going forward into the future. Adding Hughes to the rotation would be a nice step up, and would let us move Suppan to the bullpen. The key is to sell on Hall while he is playing well, and not when he is playing like he has the last couple of years. And on top of all of that, we would get the financial flexibility to add another (moderately expensive) player, either during the trade deadline, or during the upcoming offseason (since Hall´s salary will be off the books).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the service time only counts in that manner if he is added to the 25 man roster. If he is just on the 40 man roster, he only accumulates one day service time for a September call up when the roster expands. I'm pretty sure Gamel was NOT added to the 25 man roster last year. Edit: nm, it seems that after further review, you were right. I was almost sure that there was some rule about players only acquiring one day if they were just on the 40 man roster.

Living in Northern Mexico, I really like their take on the Hamburger: Buns toasted over the coals with the burger, a slice of ham, lettuce, mayo, tomato, mustard, avocado, cheese, fried onions, bacon, grilled jalapenos, ketchup, hot sauce and pineapple. I've been to a place down here that actually served a hotdog and a sausage as condiments on top of the hamburger. Either way the hamburgers are crazy delicious!

I'm pretty sure his September call up only counts as one day. The biggest concern now for the Brewers is waiting long enough so that he won't be a Super 2.

I'm aware that it doesn't use the K rate or ground ball tendencies. However I don't think it can be dismissed either when a player is getting to an awful lot more balls that others. The fact that Gamel got to more balls then all of the players I looked at would definitely seem to suggest that he has very good range. Either that or the pitchers in Huntsville have an amazing ability at creating ground balls to the left side. Plus while there are differences in K rate or ground ball tendencies, I think we could fairly say that Huntsville and Nashville were pretty average in both categories last season. I think Milwaukee was fairly average as well. For that reason, I don't see that big of a difference between Hall and Gamel on the defensive end of things. I think Hall will make a few less errors, while Gamel will make a few plays that Hall doesn't. The fact remains that Gamel's fielding percentage was far better than Brauns. So comparing the two is not fair.

That is a horrible way of looking at it, because it doesn't take into consideration that Gamel got to a lot more balls than Braun did. Gamel had a fielding percentage of .915 last season while fielding 2.878 balls per game. Braun had a fielding percentage of .895 while fielding 2.215 balls per game. I think that demonstrates just how much more instinct and range that Gamel has at 3b, that he got to over half a ball per game more than Braun did. It is not a fair comparison, comparing Gamel and Braun. One (Gamel) has the range and instincts of a 3b while the other did not. For reference to how good of range Gamel has, I looked up the balls per game for some of the better 3b in the game, and Gamel's numbers topped all of the ones I looked at: David Wright only got to 2.616 balls per game last year. Arod got to 2.550 Longoria got to 2.756 Aram. Ramirez got to 2.218 Chipper Jones got to 2.713 Bill Hall got to 2.468 So assuming Gamel's range doesn't decrease, over a span of 10 games, he would get to about 4 balls more than Bill Hall did last year. He would convert over a 10 game period 26.33 outs, while committing 2.45 errors. Add the fact that Bill Hall averages over an error over that period, if Gamel put up identical defensive numbers as last year, he would convert about 2.5 more outs per 10 games than Bill Hall, or about 40 more outs more over the course of a full season. Yes, he'd have more errors, but if the goal of defense is to convert outs, Gamel would do it at a higher rate than Hall.

Ok, I should explain myself a little bit. I see Gamel as a guy who will hit about 25 HR a year, with an OPS in the mid to upper .800s. At first base, finding that type of production is really not all that hard in the FA market. Oakland for example, picked up Giambi rather cheaply this offseason, and I´d expect that he´d put up similar numbers. I can understand why some would point out that Fielder´s numbers last year weren´t much better than that, and if you honestly believe that what Fielder did last year is what we can expect going forward than I can see your point in putting Gamel at 1b. However, I think Fielder profiles as a guy who can put up an OPS in the mid to upper .900s. I also think it would be a huge waste to stick at 1B a player who has the athleticism to play somewhere higher on the defensive scale. It would be a waste of his offensive talent to do so, since so much of his offensive value would be offset by his playing first. However, at 3b, a guy who can hit 25 HR with an OPS in the mid to upper .800s is gold. And if you look at how our team has been put together, we have had trouble filling 3b since Cirillo left (the first time). Plus, on top of that, exchanging Gamel for Fielder still means that we have only one lefty in the lineup, which is far from ideal. I also think comparing Gamel to Braun in terms of defense at 3b is not being fair to Gamel. Braun had terrible range and committed tons of errors (when looking at the stats, some point out that he may have been one of the worst 3b of all time). Gamel on the other hand seems to have plus range, which means he gets to a lot more balls than Braun did. He also was less error prone last year than Braun was in his year at Milwaukee. So even in regards to errors, Gamel is better (despite his slow start defensively this season). Finally, unless we all think Hall is the answer at 3b, without Gamel playing there, it will likely continue to be a hole on our team. I am not convinced that Green is going to be all that great of a player. If I had to guess, I think Green will end up with an OPS in the upper .700s which is far from ideal at an offensive position like 3b. And I think Lawrie is slotted for 2b once Weeks leaves.

Suppan for MVP! Ok, maybe not. But I think he showed something today. He showed that he can still be counted on to throw a decent game. He fell behind hitters quite a bit in his first couple starts, which happens to quite a few pitchers to start out a season. Today he had much better control, leading to a 60/39 strikes to balls. Suppan is going to have a lot more games like today, then he is going to have games like his previous start (which I´d probably guess will be one of his worst, if not THE worst of the year for him).

The trouble with starting out 3-8 is this. In order to get to 90 wins, we now have to go 87-64 (23 games over .500) the rest of the way. Or a winning percentage of .576. It isn't impossible, but the Brewers are going to have to be very very good to make up for their slow start. Just for reference, only four teams were able to finish with that type of winning percentage last season (Cubs, TB Rays, Red Sox, and LA Angels). So we are going to have to play as good as those teams played in 2008, the rest of this year in order to have a shot at getting into the playoffs.

Gamel doesn't hit for enough power to play 1B.

Yeah, but let's be honest. Even if you were pretty confident (like 90% confident) that you would win, would you honestly take that bet? Especially in a sports where one injury could sway the likely results. I suppose I would be up for a month long "leaving of town" for the loser (for a 31 day period chosen by the winner, redeemable at any time the winner desires). Agreed, Ender. That would probably be the best option.

It's a whole lot more creative than kicking people off of the site, explain to me how that is in any way creative. I honestly think Suppan could end up with an ERA anywhere between 4.75 and 5.25. And even if I thought I was 90% likely to win this bet, I still value the ability to participate on this site that I'm not willing to take the 10% risk of not being able to post.

Haha, nice try FTJ. Although your idea for the bet shows a serious lack of all creativity (I am actually very disappointed, I expected better). Here is what I propose. If Suppan finishes the year with an ERA under 5.25, I will agree with anything you say on this board for a whole month (October), no matter how ridiculous of a point you make. If he finishes with an ERA over 5.25, you will agree with anything I say on the board, no matter how much you disagree for a whole month (October). The loser will also have to include a note that he lost the bet in their signature. Perhaps with the phrase "I like the taste of crow". The person will be required to have it in their signature until the start of the next season. Either that or you could just "leave town" no matter what the result of the bet. I'd agree to that.

And the fact that you started this thread after Suppan got shelled on opening day doesn't at all point to the fact that this thread was in fact, at least to some extent, an over-reaction. The fact that there was already a Suppan thread, but this one "just had to get started" after his initial poor start wouldn't at all suggest a knee jerk reaction (sarcasm). I can almost guarantee you this thread doesn't get started if Suppan had given up two or three runs on opening day over 6. And just because you can parade a few starts from the close of last season doesn't it make it any more valid. When you look at the big picture (large sample), Suppan was last year, and will likely be this year again a guy who hovers from the mid fours to the low fives for ERA as he has done throughout his career. Invader his rises in ERA can easily be explained. He went from the best IF defense in the league in St. Louis. To having Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder behind him. What results? A drop in ERA. The next year on top of the poor defense, he gets injured, resulting in another mediocre drop in ERA (look at some of the starts he had before he went on the DL to see just how much the injury effected him). Now age may be catching up to him a little bit (last year's injury could be a sign of that), but despite that if he stays healthy there is no reason to believe he couldn't repeat last year's final numbers. Suppan by all accounts has not suffered a drop in mph from last season which would set off the "old and washed up" warning sirens. My guess is these 8 starts that we are looking at (a small sample FWIW) are more a result of two things, 1) bad luck (which will happen for a low strike out pitcher who has lots of balls put into play) and 2) mental makeup (loosing his cool a bit, as in his last start with all of his walks). The legitimate discussion of Suppan had been hashed and rehashed throughout the offseason. Starting a new thread on the topic that had been discussed frequently in another thread throughout the offseason after a stinker of a game only invites illegitimate posting, and knee jerk reactions (read through the pages of this discussion and you'll find plenty of that). What made this thread any more legitimate from the other thread(s) other than that you had one (now two) starts to hang your negative nelly hat on?

So we are looking at a small handful of starts from almost 7 months ago and using them to try to form an opinion of Suppan going forward? Yes, he ended last year poorly. No one is arguing about that. He also did rather well in Spring Training, but let's not even consider that if it doesn't jive with your argument. I think its rather poor when someone has to take a small sample of starts to try to prove their point (since all starters, especially bottom of the rotation starters have their good and bad stretches and Suppan happened to end on the later last year), and I think it is especially poor reasoning to go back to a small group of starts 7 months ago and try to draw conclusions from those limited amount of starts. There is a reason that they only include his last 6 starts of last season. It's because if you start going back further (aka, having a larger more projectable sample) his numbers begin to look a bit better.