GasserFace

Perfect! Glad to be wrong about that. Sign him up to platoon with Hoskins.

Mis and Yoho are the most likely to impact the '25 Brewers, even if they aren't a part of the opening day roster. EMJ is particularly interesting to me based on his tools and recent development. If he puts together a spectacular spring, could he make the roster as a power bat off the bench / defensive replacement for Hoskins? His lane is a bit obstructed since he is a RHH, but the doubles power he showed last year is intriguing.

I’m not sure this was a mistake. We don’t have all the information. I will give the front office a lot of leeway on this. this could be the ‘Walker McKinven’ effect. The ChiSox are noted laggards with pitching metrics and Walker has seen Smith develop and probably compared him to other options in their system and convinced their FO to make this move. Stuff happens. Good teams can’t keep everyone and I’m sure there is another option just around the corner

Even if he only makes 2 or 3 starts, this move is a success. Get some ground balls for the 3 shortstops that we play on a regular basis and it will be a major success. Nice stopgap acquisition

Why would the Brewers ask him to be anything but himself offensively? I think the only thing keeping him from consistent MLB time is a defensive home and AB’s He will be just fine. The Brewers gave him a second audition in SD and the results were great.

The first team to deploy this information appeared to be the Rays. They had a wide array of arm angles from both sides. The most noticeable shift for the Brewers this year is LHPs. Targeting Hudson, picking up Koenig and keeping Milner has been the biggest change from recent Brewers staffs. Great article and I look forward to more visual dives into this data.

There is no need to rush. No other team in the division is over .500. Let’s see what we have in Rodriguez, Junis, Ashby and Hall. Peralta and Rea are solid. Myers seems to be improving. Wilson is fine when he limits free passes. The Crew should stay patient and see what the market looks like in late July. We pitched well against the Phillies. Let’s see how we fare against the Dodgers and Braves before we sell some of our prospects.

The Brewers are doing an amazing job of winning while developing players at the MLB level. To do this, it seems like they are trying to put each of Ortiz, Dunn, Chourio and Turang in the best spots as possible. Some of that development appears to take the form of rest and confidence management. As we have seen and heard over the past few years, it takes 50+ players to successfully make it through a season. The sample size so far is way too small to bail on any of these players yet. Each of them are adjusting to MLB for the first time and it is the entire coaching and management staff’s responsibility to be patient and put them in situations designed for their success. My prediction is that Ortiz, Dunn and Turang will be main cogs of this infield for at least this season and to do that on a division/ pennant contender is truly remarkable.

As always, great article Jack. Let’s think about the different rule and baseball mindset changes that have occurred while Turang was developing as a player. He likely was never the biggest kid on his youth / travel teams but he made the most and best contact. He was so good at that, along with his pure athletic ability, that he was a highly ranked player from the time he was 15. The Brewers took him in the first round because of those skills. With that draft position comes expectations and everyone dreams on unlocking HR power in a line drive hitter. Brice does his thing throughout the minors. It takes him a bit of time to adjust at each level but he eventually succeeds at each level. He is doing this in the lift and defensive shift era, where the group think is that SBs are too risky. He is likely feeling the pressure to become someone who he cannot be, but he is likely hearing the noise that if he doesn’t hit 15+ dingers per year that he won’t be a viable MLB player. Fortunately, MLB changes the rules to eliminate the shift. Brice has been working on a lift swing over the past 2 years and was productive in AAA with that swing. He makes the roster and is getting a lot of ABs. He isn’t successful. Likely because he was trying to be someone else and it takes him time to adjust to each new level He gets demoted and works on becoming his true self again. Meanwhile MLB changes the base stealing rules a bit more and he realizes that his legs generate ‘hidden slug’. Almost predictably, a super talented contact with incredible athleticism is now succeeding at this new level. I think it is a great story for Brice and the Brewers and maybe a good lesson for us all. First, being self-aware is a valuable trait. Understanding what your strengths and weaknesses is the first step to success. I applaud the Brewers as well for demonstrating confidence in Brice and encouraging him to be himself. I think he is going to be a long time Major Leaguer and will help this organization win a lot of games.

Great analysis Matt! I was curious about the decision and this spells it out wonderfully. As fans we look at results almost exclusively. The manager can’t predict a fielding issue or soft contact hits. He has to make the moves that gives a better than 50 / 50 shot at success The front office has put together a roster designed for this type of management. Each of the bullpen arms is capable and expected to cover multiple innings, except for maybe Milner. Many fans dislike the roster construction and this type of management but I am just pleased that they have a long term direction and are sticking to it. There is always time to adjust later in the season if needed. Love the analysis on this site. Keep up the great work.

Jack, I love your thoughts and analysis but I think you are wrong here. Murphy is winning in a no win situation There have been key bullpen and SP injuries, inefficient/short starts from Hall, Miley and Ross. How would you have managed things differently? The 9th on Friday was a bit sketchy but I probably would’ve sent Megill back out there as well Thank goodness for Bryan Hudson. He has been the Brewers BP MVP so far Thankfully the low leverage innings have been mostly on the positive side so far. Viera is perfect for those innings The Brewers need more stability from the SP’s. It doesn’t matter who is managing the pen if they are going to average 4 IP per night

On Sunday the broadcast team mentioned that Rickie Weeks was the ‘offensive coordinator’. He is supposedly building simple plans for each pitcher. For example against Burnes anything starting over the outer third was an auto take. The offense was successful until CB started to adjust. I’m curious if anyone else heard that and how this might be different from previous seasons. Great article Tim!!

Great work Matt! Great work by the Brewers staff and Hudson. The new movement and release point data is so useful explaining old terms like ride, carry and extension. They clearly quantify what a hitter is seeing and how a pitcher is evolving. I love this data.

Interesting and bold picks, Matt. My bold prediction is ‘Billy Bob’ DL Hall will make 25+ starts 160+ IP and have a sub 3.75 ERA. and a player named Willy, Adames or Contreras, will be an All Star 😂

Here are my keys, in order of importance: 2 of the 3 young LHSP's, Hall, Gasser and Ashby, must be solid to good. My definition of solid is 20+ starts and 110+ IP @ sub 4.2 ERA. I have the players ranked in the order of probability of being solid. I honestly believe Hall could be good this year. Gasser will hover around the solid mark. Ashby is the absolute wild card, with this injury and command issues. Health for the middle of the order. Hoskins, Contreras, Yelich, Adames need to get 500+ PA's. You don't have to squint very hard to see a playoff caliber heart of the order between those 4 players. No one can predict health but if they hit the 500 PA threshold, this will be an above average offense, which is an improvement from 2023. 2 of the young guys have to grasp roles. Chourio, Frelick, Ortiz, Mitchell, Turang, Black, Dunn etc are the group I am currently interested in. Once again, I have them ranked in confidence level order. With the volume of talented players in this group, it would not be surprised if at least 3 are 2 WAR players. Colin Rea!!!! This guy gets the least amount of press and analysis because he is boring, but I think he was our 3rd best starter last year. I value IP more than others, so if you disagree I understand. Based on what I have seen, he has improved his heater and added another secondary pitch. He doesn't seem to be nibbling as much and just trusting his stuff. Possible 3+ WAR season in 2024.

I understand the metrics that have always tamped down the excitement around GM but every time I have seen him play, he produces. I truly believe that availability is his biggest hurdle. If he gets some good health luck this year, I believe he will be an average to fringe above average offensive player. The power/speed combo could be special.

I am truly excited and optimistic to see how Sal and the other young hitters adjust. Having the experience and patience to hunt ‘your’ pitch will be key. Sal could become our version of Whit Merrifeld down the road. Go Brewers!

This season appears to be set up as a competitive/tryout season. The front office thinks they have a competitive team but they aren’t certain who the real contributors are. They are basically trying out guys this year and will play the group that succeeds. Injuries, slumps and adjustments happen every year. It is way too early to trade any of these players. Shoot, Turang could have added 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and hits 5 homers this spring. We just don’t know what will happen so it is best to keep our options open while these guys are pre arb.

I like where the Brewers are going into ST. 2b and 3b are wide open for Turang Ortiz Black Dunn Miller etc. I would prefer Black to secure third and Ortiz at second. That feels like the best balance of defense and offensive ceiling. I’m especially excited to see what Dunn Black and Ortiz look like offensively