naivin

I have to say as a Brewer fan...I don't like this one bit.

Prince was born with a fat guy's body, and was always destined to be a big fella. Miguel Cabrera wasn't... http://a1259.g.akamai.net/f/1259/5586/5d/images.art.com/images/-/Miguel-Cabrera-2003-NLCS-Game-2-Homerun--C10131166.jpeg Fat boy fits him.

Is there a way you can post the formula ~ how you arrived at that .5 wins?

No. No more than they would have put Gross in the 4 spot.

Yes, regression to the mean certainly would appear to favor the Brewers at this point.

Who's we? Because Cedeno clearly is talking World Series. The headline writer...that's a good one. Right up there with "I was taken out of context."

I agree its ok for them to think about it ,as all that really matters is how you go about your business of trying to get there. Been listening to a lot of Chicago radio the past few days, and the recent Cub streak coupled with the struggles of one Eric Gagne and the injury to Sheets have them more convinced than ever that the NL Central is a foregone conclusion. I don't see it that way. I still believe Gagne will be fine, and I think the Brewers will ultimatley have the bullpen advantage. If Sheets injury situation gets more serious, this all changes, but we are sitting virtually even with them, with the Cubs having played a whopping 14 home games against 6 road games, and the Brewers almost opposite at 8 and 12. The Cubs have gotten fat on Houston and Pittsburgh (9 games), while the Brewers gimmies have come in the form of 3 games against SF. The Brewers are still without Cameron, were without Gallardo, and are currently without Sheets, while the Cubs have been without Soriano for a few games (which some would say is a good thing). Last year at this time, the Brewers were riding high at 13-7, while the Cubs were sitting at 7-13, and we all know how that turned out. The (likely legitimate) explanation given to the Cubs was that Lou was still getting to know his team and working the kinks out, their big guns weren't hitting, etc. Sound familiar? The Brewers are about to pull off the equivalent of a monster in-season trade over the course of the next several days, adding a top of the rotation pitcher (Gallardo/Sheets - depending how you look at it), a very good experienced center fielder, not to mention a fast defensive bench player. The Brewer team that will take the field on Tuesday will look much more talented, deeper, and more experienced than the one we have seen so far. Injuries are the X factor, but this thing is likely to be undecided until late September. I still believe that the team the is best able to avoid injuury wins the Central.

If it wasn't for the preence of several other old timers on that team, I'm not sure he wouldn't be a DH already.

We'll see (although I'm not certain Gwynn is any more a part of the long-range plans than Gross was), but I will say that Gwynn's minor league numbers were pulled down drastically by his first year in AA, and he has been consistently better in his other years. Likewise, Gross's 2006 greatly improved his overall MLB numbers, and the rest of his time is not consistent with that. The numbers are the numbers, and I understand you have to include them all, but if you look at each guy's first 200 or so MLB AB's (which is all Gwynn has at this point), Gwynn has actually performed better than Gross with a huge edge in AVG, and almost identical OBP, and SLG. Gross's minor league career would suggest a little higher upside primarily from a SLG perspective), but in 5 seasons with MLB experience, he has not been able to demonstrate that with any kind of consistency. The trajectory at this point would seem to suggest that with additional development time, Gwynn can be somewhere around .280/.360/.360. In 5 years, Gross hasn't really been able to get there. In the end, the incremental difference is negligible at best, I don't think either guy factored in long term, and DM made a decison based on the best fit for this team right now, and managed to get a pitcher with good potential in return.

However, to suggest that a guy that can carry a .330-ish OBP & near-.500 SLG (even when he strikes out as much as the Muscle does) isn't solid or doesn't 'deserve' some fan-love is preposterous. I jnow I said I would stop talking about this, but I'll say agin, Branyan's numbers in AVG, OBP, and SLG are quite similar to those of Wes Helms and Kevin Mench. I know I don't read every post, but I must have missed it when people suggested that those two guys deserved some fan love. nor have I seen many people referring to them as solid.

You can repeat that I don't realize this, or don't understand that as many times as you want, but that won't necessarily make it true. He draws walks, and that's great, but you argue against yourslef by talking about what a big part of his OBP that accounts for. If you are looking for a guy to provide not only a hit, but and XBH, not sure Branyan and his .229 career average (Roughly .160/.300/.300 as PH) would be at the top of the list of guys I'd want up there. Again, nothing in his past suggests that he provides a very good chance for that as you put it. Anyway, I'll stop talking about Russel Branyan in this thread (I'm sure there will be no shortage of opportunities now that Gross is gone). I just find it odd that he keeps coming up around here, and all that he supposedly brings to the table, yet he continually doesn't produce, and teams can't seem to get rid of him fast enough. All these GM's must not understand OBP and SLG. If we see him in a Brewer uniform this year, that will be a clear sign that the season has not gone very well.

No, I understand 'em fine, but at the risk of turning this into another Russ Branyan thread, I have to wonder if you do, considering that Branyan's career OBP and SLG numbers are both almost identical to those of Wes Helms and Kevin Mench, and appreciably worse than Geoff Jenkins. I don't recall consistent cries for those guys to get more AB's when they were here.

at first I thought you were talking about Brad Nelson and I rushed off to see how he was doing this year (quite well so far, actually). Then I realized you meant Russ and I couldn't agree more. I hope he sticks around in Nashville till September, I'm sure they'll at least give him a call then, if not before that. This is almost scary. Branyan's who has never proven he deserves the love he gets here, has been gone for a couple years now, and his replacement on this board, has been gone for a couple hours, and already there is a call for Branyan's return. Isn't there any other guys with all this potential they can't seem to find on the field, that half of BF.net can migrate towards? Is it really time to recycle Russ Branyan already?

I don't think I saw anybody say that. Coversely, I don't see how anyone thinks this makes the team worse this year. A week from today, Gabe Gross or Tony Gwynn were going to see thier chances to get in a game fall off very dramatically, so in my eyes the question becomes which guy brings more to that last guy off the bench, bunt a guy over, late inning relacement role, and I don't think there's any question, its Gwynn. Lets just say I won't lose a lot of sleep because we won't have Gabe Gross around as the LH bat to crack that late inning PH home run. If that's really a concern, this team is gonna be in trouble.

Just ridiculous comments. Stupid fand started hating him because he got off to a 2-20 start? Apparently you missed last season, and the rest of his rather ho hum career. That whole Gwynn is named Gwynn argument is quite tired as well. Do you think Doug Melvin is keeping him around because his name is Gwynn? You know better than that. If Gross is as good as you guys seem to think he is, he was certainly the wrong guy for the role he was expected to fill here. If he needs to play regularly to produce, this was certainly the wrong place for him. I got news for you, he isn't going to get a week of starts here once Cameron returns, so if he can't play well without regular at bats, how does his presence here help the Brewers? The Brewers need a back-up outfilder...the last guy off the bench, not a guy who needs regular PT to have value. Seems to me the Brewers did him a favor by providing a chance to play every day, and I suspect Doug will say that was part of it, as he obviously had no place in the Brewers plans, so getting something for him makes sense.

I hear what you're saying, but if someone gets hurt for an extended period, does it really matter? What is the incremental difference between a Kapler/Gross platoon and a Kapler/Gwynn platoon? Even if you take the platoon out of it, if we have to replace Cameron, Braun or Hart on an everyday basis is Gabe Gross playing every day gonna make any kind of difference over the other two? There is little in his career to support that.

This is a good point, as he really served no purpose on this team, now or in the future. Now the question becomes, will Turnbow be a Brewer a week from today?

Funny, because I feel the same way, but in reverse. I never understood what people saw in him to make them think he was good - perhaps other than the fact that he is not named Tony Gwynn Jr. Then again, I was always extremely confused by the great many BF.net folks who thought Russel Branyan was a good player. He wasn't. It was nice to have Gabe Gross step in and fill that roll for a couple years though. Who's next?

This is rather silly. When Cameron returns, we are talking about the last guy on the bench...a rare start, occasional PH appearance, defensive replacement, pinch runner...If you are suggesting that Gabe Gross and his sub-.200 average, and .311 OBP as a pinch hitter the last 3 years brings more to that roll than Gwynn would, I'd love to hear why.

I guess this also means we're sticking with 14 pitchers for the next week until Cameron returns.

Finally. I called this one at least 2 weeks ago. I guess Gwynn must be ready to return.

Just a couple of observations after today. Riske was awful. He still probably would have been preferable to Turnbow yesterday, but I guess it just goes to show you. Using him yesterday was is nowhere near the slam dunk so many here would like to believe it was. Also, Gagne blew yet another save, and I'm no expert, but I'm reasonably sure he didn't pitch yesterday, so perhaps his stuggles are a function of the pitcher as much or more than the pitchers rest. I still question those moves, but hindsight works both ways. Blame the manager is quick and easy and allows one to ignore the possible reality that your team simply may not be as good as you would like them to be, but its typically misguided. I guess since last night's loss was on Ned, that means today's win is on Ned. Great job Skip!

Absolutley laughable. What other Managers, good or bad do you believe account for a 12 game difference?

I guess this is a pretty good point. Perhaps it wasn't necessarily a good move or a bad move, but rather a move that just didn't work out.

Seems pretty clear to me, assuming Sheets is able to pitch sometime in the next week or so, Gwynn will be activated in the next day or two, and they will say goodbye to McCLung, Turnbow, or Stetter - perhaps in that order of probability. Then, next week when Cameron is back, they will say goodbye to Gabe Gross, and probably bring Dillon back, with adjustments to the rotation and an additional pitcher being sent to AAA or given the opportunity to share their talents elsewhere. As usual however, there is still time for injury to sort this stuff out. It all hinges on Sheets, but assuming he is ok, and no injuries in the meantime, here's what I think we are looking at on the 29th... Sheets Gallardo Suppan Villanueva Bush Gagne Mota Torres Riske Shouse Stetter (I think they want the additional lefty) McClung (he can fill the mop up roll the same as Turnbow) Kendall Rivera Fielder Weeks Hardy Hall Braun Cameron Hart Dillon Counsell Gwynn Kapler I'm not certain on the Turnbow, thing as unlike McCLung or Stetter, once you get rid of him, he's gone for good, but I just get the sense both sides may feel it may be time to cut ties. Likewise on the last outfielder. Gwynn probably brings the most to the party as the last guy on the bench, but whether we are talking Gwynn, Gross or Kapler probably doesn't matter much. Kapler would appear to be the safest though.