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Dollarbill13

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Everything posted by Dollarbill13

  1. Dollarbill13
    can someone just start a 10-5 IGT and try to jinx the d-backs?
  2. Dollarbill13
    Tony Plush reality show...
  3. Dollarbill13
    If #2 in the rotation is the middle, I agree. There's 19 pitchers in the majors that are better than him in ERA this season. If you look at his career ERA, that would rank him as the 47th best pitcher. With 30 teams in the league, that's smack dab in the middle of #2 starter range. The biggest concern I have with Marcum is that his mechanics aren't particularly clean and could lead to future arm problems. I'd guess 4 years ~$60M in Free Agency. Not a lot of teams are giving pitchers deals longer than that these days.
  4. Dollarbill13
    FWIW, I simulated it ~150,000 times in excel using BP's expected winning percentages. Looks like the actual playoff percentage is ~99.975% according to their sim.
  5. Dollarbill13
    The expected win % is listed on the playoff odds page. The Brewers' is .557 and the Cards' is .551
  6. Dollarbill13
    Their odds are based on simulating the rest of the season a million (or millions) of times. The odds are then derived based on what % of the simulations result in playoffs. And like was said earlier, I'm sure they round to the nearest 0.1
  7. Dollarbill13
    http://www.victoryerrid.com/images/terryprojects.jpg
  8. Dollarbill13
    http://www.capitalcityhues.com/sitebuilder/images/052010AaronBird-277x186.jpg
  9. Dollarbill13
    16 is too old for Pedro Bayer.
  10. Dollarbill13
    High MiLB BABIPs don't tend to translate to the same level MLB BABIPs due to the lower quality defense in the minors as well as the lower infield quality in the minors.
  11. Dollarbill13
    Gindl has a 25 point OPS advantage over Hart on the power of a .338 BABIP in AAA. While he could out-perform Corey's career .786 OPS against righties, I think it's far from a sure thing. That being said, I think I like the idea of trading Hart (assuming there is a good return to be found) this offseason.
  12. Dollarbill13
    Money, Inc.
  13. Dollarbill13
    His LOB% last year was 65%. His LOB% this year is 55%. If you look at his situational stats, he's basically been very good without RISP and terrible with RISP. Either something happens inside him when he's in tougher situations that causes him to melt down or it's a small sample. Given that he's faced 70 batters with RISP this season, and his career numbers with RISP are actually better than his overall numbers, I'm going to chalk this one up to small sample size (which is luck if you ask me). Pitches always look worse when they get smashed into the gap for a double. I'm not trying to say your perception is wrong but that's a potential bias. Also, all pitchers throw pitches where they hit their spot and throw pitches where they miss their spot. I'd be interested to see some PitchFX data on the percentage of good and bad pitches that Zack throws as well as how often he throws good and bad pitches. Given his ridiculous strikeout rate and low walk rate, it's pretty easy to argue that the vast majority of his pitches are excellent. Maybe he just loses focus and throws up an occasional Ruben Quevedo-esque meatball that are much worse than the average pitcher's "bad" pitches. It's hard to know that for sure, but I don't really buy that as a likely scenario given that he's been in the league for a while without doing something similar ever before. He's also thrown over 800 innings since the whole Social Anxiety Disorder diagnosis.
  14. Dollarbill13
    Greinke has been attacked by both luck dragons this year. He should be fine. And I agree with those here who would consider working on an extension now.
  15. Dollarbill13
    The premise isn't soley to sign Greinke, but it would give us flexibility. It's that RF is one position where we could reasonably trade our starter and not suffer a catastrophic hit to our lineup. We've also signed a couple extensions, notably Weeks, since Fielder turned down his contract. Also in your comparison, you aren't factoring salary or age into consideration. Out of the SS's you mentioned, only Hardy will be under 30 to start next season and all will require a significant amount of money. Without Fielder, I think next season we'll be moving out of our "all-in" mentality and re-focus on acquiring cost-effective players to build around our core.
  16. Dollarbill13
    I don't think there are too many "long term" fixes at SS available at the moment, save for Reyes. And Reyes will cost a ton. I think I'd rather see them add a stop gap like Caroll for this season and get a comp pick at the end of the season. Then I'd look into trading Hart for a SS prospect in the offseason and using Hart's money toward a Greinke extension.
  17. Dollarbill13
    MLBTR lists Jamey Carroll as a trade candidate. Link. He's played 51 games at SS for the Dodgers with a -9.5 UZR/150 (-2.4 career) compared to YuniB's -11.4 UZR/150 (-8.5 career). He also has a .376 OBP this year with a .375 SLG (.357/.350 career). This would be a huge upgrade over Betancourt. If he proves to be gritty enough, RRR could even slide him into the #1 spot and allow Weeks to hit 2nd and get more RBI opportunities. He's looking like a type B free agent but as a 37 year old rental he probably wouldn't cost a top prospect. He seems like an ideal combination of cost/benefit in terms of potential trade targets at the moment.
  18. Dollarbill13
    Seriorg idea: Trade Hart and give up any chance of signing Greinke or Marcum to an extension. Any budgeting for a Prince extension needs to incorporate the fact that Braun will be making a lot more money in the future than he is now. Not so seriorg idea: Sell RRR's brain to a research lab.
  19. Dollarbill13
    I'm sure he'll have several teams willing to give him a shot in the minors so he'll have his choice of teams. Fangraphs shows that in his one appearance for the Angels this year, his fastball topped out at 86. If he can get back to near his old velocity, he'd be a solid bullpen option. Without that, he's Brian Shouse at best.
  20. Dollarbill13
    For what it's worth, our bullpen (aside from Ax) doesn't give too many strong options... Hawkins has a 0.55 ERA but his xFIP currently sits at 3.90. A few reasons for the difference: - He has an increased GB/FB% of 58% compared to his career 46%. We'll chalk that up to his new pitching "style" in 2011, but more than likely there is some regression to the mean coming. - He has not allowed a HR. He has a career rate of 8% HR/FB. - His LOB% is 90% compared with a career rate of 71%. This is simply unsustainable. Just ask the ...
  21. Dollarbill13
    http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/e7415a4096d5cd4e29b931a5b54159867d62bc0.jpg
  22. Dollarbill13
    Russ, Do you have any advanced simulators in excel or are you just creating simple-ish ones?
  23. Dollarbill13
    I agree but I don't think it's a bad idea to bring in a competent 1B in case Gamel doesn't pan out. Worst case situation is that they end up as a primary bench option.
  24. Dollarbill13
    I agree with this and I think it would be a good option to have Gomez available off the bench to come in as a defensive replacement or pinch runner when needed.
  25. Dollarbill13
    I agree that the salary estimate on Reyes is wayyyy too low. He'll end up getting at least $15M per season, if not more. In the interview with the Mets owner, he mentioned that Reyes is looking for Crawford type money (7 for $142M). I also think that we'll be fine with a combination of Gomez and Morgan in center. I'd much rather spend the money we save on Fielder by trying to sign Greinke and/or Marcum to an extension. I could see us signing a FA SS like Furcal, but I think there will be a lot of interest in him and he'll end up going for more money than we're willing to pay. I'll guess that we'll end up with one of the no-hit, decent fielding shortstops. They aren't anything to get excited about but just about anything would be an upgrade over Betancourt and could probably be had for less money. Targets on the free agent market will probably be limited to relief pitchers and role players for offense (bringing in a RH hitter to platoon w/ Gamel if needed, etc.)
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