Dollarbill13
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Everything posted by Dollarbill13
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HOLLA!!! Saving Luc for the walk-off in the 9th
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Maysonet is not Rob Deer-esque with his pop ups
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Nice throw there
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Just when I'm about to give up on the crew, Doug joins the booth to help me relax... and that.
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Roenicke is clearly a genius
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Not really true. 2 really bad starts, 6 okay-to-good starts heading into tonight. Going to be digging out of that ERA for awhile, though. The quality start is a very flawed statistic but Wolf only has two of those. I don't really consider 5 IP and 3 R or 6 IP and 4 R an okay to good start as it puts you on pace for more than a 5 ERA, which is not good or okay.
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I think his suggestion was that the Mets would eat about half of Santana's contract, which could be true. You are right, though, that we'd have a large portion of our payroll dedicated to a few players. I think he's referring to their heavy losses in the Madoff scandal, not the fact that they have a high payroll. I would argue that the Brewers are far from a financial mess. Our attendance has been consistently strong over the past few years with increasing ticket prices, we've got a new TV and radio deal to add additional revenue, and we have an investment banker as our owner. I trust Mark to not put the organization in financial jeopardy.
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I bet Gallardo would get us Wright. Gallardo is under team control through 2015 while Wright is under team control through 2013. The whole point is moot though since Wright can opt out of his contract after this year if he's traded.
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And Hart leading off... why not Aoki?
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I'm not sure the Mets would go for that 2nd trade anyway. FWIW I think you meant we'd trade Jungman in the 2nd trade rather than Thornberg because you have Thornberg in the rotation. That team would likely compete in 2013 but it'd leave us even more bare in the minors than we already are and we'd lose Santana and Wright after next year. I wouldn't totally be against acquiring Santana but I don't think it's the direction we should be moving our team at the moment.
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I really have no idea where this conversation is going anymore. Rickie does have trouble putting the ball in play. His contact rate on strikes is 82% this year (84% for his career) compared to a league average of 88%. What's really interesting is that his contact rate on balls is only 50% vs a league average of about 68%. He's below league average in swinging % on both strikes and balls. I would *think* is makes sense as a strategy for someone who doesn't make contact as well. When he does make contact, he usually hits it hard. So it might be frustrating to watch Weeks even when he's having a solid season but he's always put up pretty good numbers. This year he's having an awful year. Our options are to either cut him, trade him at his all time low, bench him, or let him play through it. I kind of think this is going to be a lost season regardless of Weeks' performance so I'd rather let him play through it and try to at least build back his value.
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Wolf is interesting... the last three seasons his actual ERA was substantially lower than his FIP. And that was over about 645 IP. All of a sudden this year his ERA is way worse than his FIP... all are primarily driven by BABIP. He should turn it around to some degree but he's also walking more and striking out less than last year.
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I don't know what it'd take but if they want Kottaras, like I said, greatest trade ever. Even if Trumbo isn't the future at 1B, he makes the team better now than a backup catcher. I don't know man, we'd be getting a 1B with a .990 OPS for a C with a 1.124 OPS. Seems like a downgrade to me. I guess my point was that we'd be trading a good hitting, poor hitting catcher for an alright hitting 1B. I'd make the trade if it were offered (but like you said, not gonna happen), but the difference between Trumbo and Green is probably similar to the difference between Kottaras and Maldonado
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Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....
Dollarbill13 replied to miggs721's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Well I'd make Braun untouchable because having a guy like that locked up at a reasonable price makes his value more than any team could reasonably offer. At this point, I just want to build around Braun and Greinke. Greinke has shown himself to be durable as long as he doesn't get hurt. I'd be fine with giving him a Matt Cain contract right now and then rebuild by trading the rest of the guys. It might mean we have a down year in 2013 but with our SP depth in the minors and the haul that we'd get from Hart & Weeks, we should be back to competing in 2014. -
I think this is a pretty fair point but Reyes was coming off a 126 game season when he got his contract. If Hamilton misses 25-30 games this year, his contract will probably be more similar to Reyes. If he stays healthy this year, I bet some teams would "forget" about his injury history. A 150 game season from Hamilton will likely lead to a 6 or 7 year deal at more than 20MM per
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Green now has 57 major league plate appearances so it will be a while before we really know how he'll pan out as a major leaguer. I, personally, wouldn't say I "love" Green. If we were in the off-season, I'd definitely be looking for an upgrade at 1B. Trumbo had a great 2010 in AAA (.299/.366/.575) and a pretty mediocre 2011 in the bigs. He showed tons of power but very little plate discipline. He now has a great 102 plate appearances in 2012, heavily due to a .381 BABIP. In comparison, Green had a great 2011 in AAA (.336/.413/..583) and mediocre results in 133 combined plate appearances this year. Green is also about a year younger than Trumbo. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Green to turn into a decent hitter and be a little more OBP heavy compared to Trumbo's SLG heavy line. I'm not saying that Trumbo won't end up as a better hitter but it's not worth trading a significant amount to get him right now.
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The same Trumbo who had a .291 OBP last year in 573 PA? He currently has a .300 BA on a .365 BABIP. Once that BABIP regresses, I don't think he adds a lot to a lineup that is already lacking in OBP ability. I think I'd rather just stick with Taylor Green at first and shoot for a .340/.440 slash line compared to a .310/.480 slash line that Trumbo is likely to give you.
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I'm not sure about 10 but I bet he gets 7 or 8 years at probably 25 mill per season (assuming he stays healthy this year). He's a great hitter but signing him would likely mean making major cuts at other positions (ie not signing Greinke, trading Weeks, etc.). As great as they are, I don't think Braun, Hamilton, and a bunch of random dudes are enough to be WS competitors.
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RR is probably looking at the schedule that they had both last Thursday and this Thursday off. He's probably figuring that it will do more good to give him a day off when they have a long stretch of games with no day off. He clearly thinks that Weeks needs to just work his way through his slump rather than clear his head. I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with giving him a day off right now, nor do I think there is anything wrong with letting him play through it. I'm sure there are many examples where a player snapped out of a slump after a day off. I'm equally sure that there are many examples where guys didn't break out of their slump after a day off. I would be curious to see if there is any evidence that a day off provides any benefit in breaking out of a slump.
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11-5 in night games, 3-12 in day games
Dollarbill13 replied to Eddiehitsthefoulpole's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Dang you beat me to it. -
11-5 in night games, 3-12 in day games
Dollarbill13 replied to Eddiehitsthefoulpole's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This thread is worthless without Santos. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/victor_santos_autograph.jpg -
I'm guessing you are getting his ball in play statistics from fangraphs. If so, you are reading them wrong. His 23.3% IFFB rate is a percentage of his total fly balls, not total balls in play. He has hit 7 infield flies this season. If you apply his last season rate of 12%, he "should" have hit 3.6. Also, for what it's worth, he has hit 9 line drives out of 76 balls in play. Using his 16.6% rate from last season, he "should' have hit 12.6. His K rate is also about 3% higher than last year which means that he's struck out about 5 times more than he otherwise "should" have. This article shows the amount of plate appearances that it typically takes for various statistics to stabilize. We are getting close to the point where you can reasonably look at line drive rate but it would seem that we should still give him time on the rest. IFFB means basically nothing right now. Even if you assume that his current rates will stand for the entire season, his xBABIP is .243 compared to his current BABIP of .219. If you assume that his IFFB rate will normalize to last year's 12% and everything else will remain the same, his BABIP would be .271. He probably won't put up the same numbers as he did last year, but a Rickie Weeks that hits .240 still has a lot of value given his ability to take walks and hit for power. Ultimately, I think most folks are fine with him having a day off, although I'm skeptical of whether it would actually do any better than just letting him try to play through his slump.