Dollarbill13
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Everything posted by Dollarbill13
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Only if he stays at shortstop
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Rickie Weeks with less power and better contact.
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Could you imagine if we had this for our 2013 payroll: Greinke $24M Fielder $23M Braun $11M Weeks $10M Hart $10M Ramirez $10M Gallardo $7.75M Aoki $1.25M We'd need to non-tender all our arby guys and essentially fill the rest of the roster with 17 MLB minimum salaries to stay around the $100M mark.
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I'm just saying that at this point it's a question of "is he ready?" vs. saving service time.
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Well it wouldn't matter at this point. He was only called up by the Angels a week ago and we're well past the likely cutoff for super two status. The only way they could really save service time would be to leave him in AAA for the first half of next season.
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Keep in mind that he was moved from 2B to SS so some of the knocks on him could be the learning curve. He supposedly has the arm for SS. The accuracy and range is what is in question.
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Now they'll have to give up Olt for K-Rod
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Segura seems like a good one if he can stick at SS. If he has to move to 2B, I hope his power develops. BA seems to think he could be a 20 HR guy but being listed at 5'11" 160 seems like a stretch at the moment. Pena is having a nice year so hopefully he can stick in the rotation. 3.31 BB/9 in 2012 compared to 4.81 BB/9 in 2011. That's a pretty big step forward. Hellweg is a 6'9" flamethrower who has had trouble with mechanics. His K/9 dropped significantly in 2012 to 6.62 compared to 11.3 last year. Looks like he's been pretty good over the last month so hopefully he just got off to a bad start this season.
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So we can get a better draft pick.
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Dempster has had an xFIP between 3.69 and 3.76 in each of the last 5 seasons, so I would say he's better than a 4-5. Lohse is a little above 4 for the last two years. I wouldn't mind either as a stop-gap next year if we really needed it and if they'd take 1 year deals. Dempster would be a decent replacement for Marcum but as The Biz said, we'd still need to replace Greinke. I don't want to give up on next year because I think even an 80 win team is worth more to the organization than saving $10-20M and winning 70 games. I know some may disagree with that but I don't want to go back to the days where we end up on everyone's no-trade list. By the way, what's with the Looper references?
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I agree on Marcum catching too much flak. He's my favorite Brewer pitcher to watch on tv because it reminds me of Greg Maddux. It must be from seeing these 88 mph "meatballs" dive out of the way at the last minute and make the batter look silly. I think Marcum reminds people of Suppan which is somewhat understandable given his velocity, but they are very different pitchers. His health is always the biggest concern given his history and mechanics which could cause him to lose his command. Prior to the injury, he was probably looking at something like 3 yrs at $12-$15M per season but now, I think you are right that he's probably worth a qualifying offer (assuming he can come back and be productive).
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I love the idea of getting Odor. He's a little far away but for an 18 year old in A ball to have 8 HR at the break and a .187 ISO is pretty impressive. I could easily see him ending up as a top 10-ish prospect in a year or two, once he has a little more opportunity to succeed.
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If you could get Castellanos for Weeks, then I think you have to do it. I'd be curious how true Melvin's comments are about trading hitters in the offseason vs. trading them at the deadline. It will be interesting to see how aggressive Detroit is at the deadline given that they aren't having as good a year as most had expected. However, if they aren't aggressive at the deadline, they will probably be very aggressive in the offseason. If we can't get something good for Weeks right now, we should definitely be able to get value in the winter.
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Zack probably just wants to be shown the kwan, not the Braun.
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I'm not sure you can pin our lack of success on developing pitching on Melvin. Jack Z was in charge of most of those drafts that produced a ton of hitting and no pitching. Now pitching is the strength of our farm system and Melvin is still here.
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I agree that Machado isn't realistic. Fangraphs had a pretty good article about this yesterday. Justin Smoak was the only top 25-ish prospect (according to their rankings) recently traded for a starting pitcher rental at the deadline. Given the changes to the FA compensation, we're more likely to get like 3 top 250-ish prospects or be forced to take the picks. Like I said, I think SRB's proposal seems to be about that value. I don't know if I like Britton but Schoop and Delmonico would be a decent start and Matusz is more or less just a flier at this point.
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This could easily be worked around if we threw a few million into the trade. It'd then be the equivalent of paying him, say, a $10M salary in year 1 rather than $6M and leaving less money on his contract for the last two years.
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We should be able to get something decent from LA for Ramirez. His contract is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. He essentially has $33M left over 2.5 seasons or $13M per season. $13M on the free agent market will get you about 2.5-3 WAR. He's already produced 2.4 WAR for us. You can factor in some regression but Ramirez will probably be at least be worth what remains on his contract. In terms of what we could get... I'd love to have a guy like Jerry Sands in our lineup. I wonder if that would be feasible for LA.
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The alternative view is that without mortgaging the future, we would have gone through a major wave of prospects (Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hart, etc.) without winning anything. Take away a few of our prospect trades and we could be looking at this lineup & rotation: Aoki Escobar Braun Hart Weeks Lucroy Lawrie Cain/Brantley Gallardo Fiers Odorizzi Estrada Thornburg We'd probably also have at least one starter that we would have picked up in a Fielder trade. We'd have a young, cost controlled team, but I don't think that team is playoff caliber. The biggest problem with the Brewers organization has been the lack of quality drafts/development of high draft picks and not the fact that we traded some prospects for some very good major leaguers.
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That's probably a realistic haul in terms of value, but I'm not a fan of Britton given the concerns with his shoulder. Unless the Orioles are willing to part with Machado, we'd probably have to take a 4-5 prospect package including a couple guys with upside who can hopefully develop into more than what they currently profile as.
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I'd be very tempted to do a trade like that as long as we aren't giving up Thorny, especially if we could get Profar. I doubt Texas or Baltimore would bite, but it's worth a shot.
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Time to trade Gallardo?
Dollarbill13 replied to HiAndTight's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
HiAndTight, I didn't mean to twist your words. Sorry if you took it that way. I'm fine with it if you think Gomez & Gamel have the potential to be 3-4 WAR players. My point is that if they are, we'd have a very solid all around lineup (with a possibly weak SS). The rotation would be a question mark but we still have Gallardo, Fiers, and Estrada, who have proven to be at least a solid 2-4 portion of the rotation and Thornburg who will likely be ready as well. So we'd basically need a top of the rotation guy, a SS, and a bullpen. The bullpen can usually be addressed cheaply which leaves two spots where we'd need to spend to have, what would be, a pretty solid team. And for what it's worth, I don't think if you remove a 3 WAR player from a lineup and replaced him with a 0 WAR player that you'd lose exactly three wins. There is a high degree of variability due to situational performance. It could probably be anywhere from 0 to 10 (I have no idea). However, the intention of the statistic is to show how many wins they would be worth if all other things were the same. My opinion is that you should use WAR to calculate how many wins you think your team is worth, understanding that there is a lot of variability in the actual outcomes. If you do that, with the assumptions of 3-4 win potential from Gamel and Gomez, we are pretty darn close to being a team that should be in the race. -
The other thing you might want to do is get a background check for yourself so you know if anything may be hurting you or if anything is inaccurate. Then, if the interview is going well, you may want to proactively address the items so they can (hopefully) get a better understanding of who you are as a person and not have them feel like they are being misled by you.
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Biz, that's ridiculous. I can understand people not wanting to say "No" on the spot to an interview, but why would they basically say "Yes" and not mean it. I've also had several interviews that I thought went well and ended up never hearing back, even upon several follow up calls & emails. I really hate dealing with HR departments on job searches as, in most cases, it isn't their expertise. I guess the only thing I'd ask is whether you are sending "Thank You" letters/emails within a day of your interview as some feel like this is the job-seeker's way of saying they are interested.
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To add more on Axford, the biggest variables between this year and last year are his LOB% and HR%. His HR rate was very low last year and it's very high this year. Neither is likely sustainable. LOB% tends to fluctuate quite a bit and, unless he's actually paying less attention to runners, will likely stabilize. As mentioned, he's throwing his fastball at a higher velocity than last year and he's also getting more movement on his curveball without a real drop in velocity. The problem is that he hasn't been able to locate them. He hasn't been able to consistently throw his curveball for strikes this season and when they are strikes, they are more likely to be up in the zone. The biggest change that I'm seeing on fastballs is that he's missing middle-in to lefties much more often. Whether he can correct those latter two issues will probably be the difference to whether he can get back to where he was in the past (2.8-ish ERA)