And That

In Rickie's case, or any youngster's, that doesn't give him full credit for his expected improvement. Which is why a community projection may well be more accurate. Hence why it is done by Sickles.

When I asked this person why they did this without a warning or why I wasn't given a chance to edit the post myself, I received no response at all. Funny thing is, this person is no longer a mod so maybe I wasn' t the only one with a problem? Funnier still is this person now feels there is uneven treatment on this board. I think that's called a triple standard. It's fine to be alright with odd-numbered standards. Doy.

Projections are just math with some guessing involved, especially on young guys like Rickie. The point of the community projection is that, with enough data (i.e. many people's predictions for Weeks), a community projection is usually pretty accurate as to what the actual outcome will be.

Valentine was stuck behind a lot of guys before he'd get a shot at major league job. I wouldn't have resigned with Milwaukee, if I were him. He did, he was going to get buried at AA, and that's why he asked to be released. That would be my guess. Malave was pretty sweet, and by all accounts a good kid, but he had some injury concerns. Again, that's my guess as to his release.

In light of Sarfate's remaining option, there's about an 80-90% chance he's back in AAA to start the year.

That's Abad signing.

I'd like to see Corey Thurman win the spot. He's still got some potential left in him, and appears to be totally healthy.

The Hinton's (Robert and Rich) I guessed Narron for this... I had no idea Rob's dad played in the bigs. The Hinton legend grows.

Good luck, Jeremy Jeffress. Your shoulder is gonna need it.

Out of surgery, no suprises,6 month rehab and if followed to expect 100% recovery No offense, but I'll believe a recovery time of 6 months from non-arthroscopic shoulder surgery when I see it. From this moment, he's into July before he's throwing off the mound... yah, he's done for the year. Hate to say it, but next say hello to Mark Rogers sometime in 2008.

Oh, and Toby, by projecting Nix in AAA, are you implying that he'll be put on waivers and clear them? I'd love to see that happen, but it seems unlikely to me. I dunno, is anyone going to want to keep Nix on their big league roster after all his injuries and lack of production? If the Brewers lost him, it wouldn't be that big of a deal to me. He's not going to make the big league club with Mench, Jenkins and Clark still here. If we lose him, we still have Tydus Meadows to play in AAA, and Fermaint/Moss/Katin right behind him in AA. I also still think Inman might jump to AA. He might not benefit from dominating in A+ in the pitchers' dream yard. The only concern would be pitch counts, but they could have him on lower counts in AA than his peers, just as they've done with others. I agree, but many seem to think that pitch counts in AA are different than they are in A+. Inman already has the character to be a major league pitcher, and his stuff isn't very far behind. If he stayed healthy, he could dominate AA this year. However, he'll be lucky to get a half season there. I'm curious what you think of Luis Pena and what you think is the organization's view of him. Luis Pena is tough to predict - he's ultra talented and has a great pitcher's frame. However, he's injury prone and inconsistent. I could see him in AA no problem, and I could also see him starting the year on the Brevard DL. My placement of him in BC had more to do with a conservative projection than anything. He has a lot of talent and the NRI may have more to do with keeping him in the organization the next few years than anything else. He's not going to sniff AAA this year unless he has a miracle year.

i don't think mike bell can play SS very well...ryan crew makes more sense.. I've read that the Brewers think Bell has better tools to stick at SS than Crew does. Crew projects as a utility guy... if Bell can refine his defensive game, his bat will play at the position. Second base is an option for him, but I don't believe the Brewers will move him off of SS full time until they have to. Ryan Barba in Festa's spot... I'd give it a 1/3 chance that Festa gets promoted, a 1/3 chance he gets released and a 1/3 chance he sticks with WV. 26 is ridiculously old for A-ball, but when the next-best options right now are Ryan Barba, Hector Bernal and Brad Miller, you have to consider it. Festa could easily slide into the Nate Yoho role of last year. with possibly Dillard returning to AA...have we heard any official word on him moving to the bullpen? Dillard has 163 good innings at AA, so it would be a curious move to send him back there. He'll likely keep getting starter innings in the minors, as that's the best way to groom pitchers for the next step. If he is moved to the bullpen next year in AAA, I'd have to guess it would be because Nashville already has so many options at starter (especially if CV doesn't make the big club). And Rottino will play nearly every day, so he should be listed as a starter somewhere. I think the playing time is implied. Do you want me to list at 3B instead of Braun? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I just can't see Alcides Escobar starting at AA. He really needs to repeat BC, as there's no reason to push the kid. I'm torn on this, and it'll come down to how he does in spring training, IMO. They've already pushed him once, when they sent Alcides to the AFL last year, and they do seem to want to keep him with Iribarren (who has obviously earned a promotion). He hit .257 in a pitcher's league as a 19-year-old, which isn't too bad. His defense became more refined, too. On the other hand, he didn't get on base, missed valuable playing time due to injury, and never really got on any sort of a roll at the plate. I really hope you're right and the Cuban, Yohannis Perez, can begin at AAA Obviously, if Perez starts at AA, then Escobar starts at A+, and Chavez probably gets promoted to AAA. Perez' landing spot affects a number of people... I can't say my guess that he's with Nashville is anything more than a slightly educated guess.

I thought they might move Alonso to West Virginia last year, but clearly there were some things that need to be refined in his game. He can hit, but he needs to draw some more walks, and he needs to play better defense. Did he do enough of that repeating rookie ball? My guess is they'll hold him back another half season, but I'd sure rather see him than Rowe. Narron goes to AA for a few reasons: he finished last year in Brevard, Huntsville is warmer than Nashville, and the Nashville staff is already looking jam-packed. He's still an injury risk, so I think they'll be careful with him.

I was bored, so here is my second roster projection for the spring. Amongst those intentionally not included are Ben Hendrickson and Grant Balfour. I doubt Hendrickson will be in the organization when camp breaks at the end of March. And until Balfour proves he is healthy, I don't know whether he'll make the big league club, go on a rehab assignment, be waived, or be on the DL. Also not included who are presently on rosters above rookie ball are Brady Clark (I think he'll be traded if Mench and Jenkins aren't), 1B Mike Huggins, UT Craig Kuzmic, RHP Dave Bradley, RHP Vince Perkins (recovering from TJ surgery), OF Ron Davenport, OF Travis Ezi, RHP Khalid Ballouli, LHP Jeff Housman, RHP Matt Yeatman, RHP Jesse Harper (will make a club if he's healthy), RHP John Novinsky (ditto), C JR Hopf, C Kyle Phillips, 1B Grant Richardson (don't know if he's healthy), OF Hassan Rasheed, RHP Mark Rogers, RHP Bo Hall, C Brad Wilcutt, SS Ryan Barba, SS Hector Bernal, OF Nate Yoho, RHP Josh Baker and RHP Ryan Marion. Milwaukee Starting Catcher J. Estrada Backup Catcher D. Miller Starting First Baseman P. Fielder Starting Second Baseman R. Weeks Backup Middle Infielder C. Counsell Starting Third Baseman C. Koskie Starting Shortstop J. Hardy Backup Utility Fielder T. Graffanino Starting Left Fielder C. Hart Starting Center Fielder B. Hall Backup Outfielder G. Gross Starting Right Fielder G. Jenkins Backup Outfielder K. Mench Starting Pitcher #1 B. Sheets Long Relief D. Sarfate Starting Pitcher #2 C. Capuano Middle Relief #1 J. Capellan Starting Pitcher #3 J. Suppan Middle Relief #2 G. Aquino Starting Pitcher #4 D. Bush Middle Relief #3 D. Turnbow Starting Pitcher #5 C. Vargas Righthanded Setup M. Wise Closer F. Cordero Lefthanded Setup B. Shouse Nashville Starting Catcher M. Rivera Backup Catcher J. Closser Starting First Baseman B. Nelson Starting Second Baseman C. Crabbe Backup Middle Infielder C. Barnwell Starting Third Baseman R. Braun Starting Shortstop Y. Perez Backup Utility Fielder V. Rottino Starting Left Fielder D. Anderson Starting Center Fielder T. Gwynn Backup Outfielder T. Meadows Starting Right Fielder L. Nix Starting Pitcher #1 C. Villanueva Long Relief C. Oxspring Starting Pitcher #2 Y. Gallardo Middle Relief #1 C. Demaria Starting Pitcher #3 Z. Jackson Middle Relief #2 C. Spurling Starting Pitcher #4 T. Dillard Middle Relief #3 M. Meyers Starting Pitcher #5 C. Thurman Righthanded Setup S. Bray Closer L. Hackman Lefthanded Setup M. Stetter Huntsville Starting Catcher L. Palmisano Backup Catcher C. Corporan Starting First Baseman M. Carlin Starting Second Baseman H. Iribarren Backup Middle Infielder O. Chavez Starting Third Baseman A. Heether Starting Shortstop A. Escobar Backup Utility Fielder J. Eure Starting Left Fielder B. Katin Starting Center Fielder C. Fermaint Backup Outfielder K. Bibbs Starting Right Fielder S. Moss Starting Pitcher #1 M. Parra Long Relief S. Narron Starting Pitcher #2 M. Jones Middle Relief #1 A. Zumwalt Starting Pitcher #3 S. Hammond Middle Relief #2 G. Simpson Starting Pitcher #4 A. Pettyjohn Middle Relief #3 J. Lewis Starting Pitcher #5 R. Hinton Setup #1 J. Valentine Closer J. Thatcher Setup #2 B. Baez Brevard County Starting Catcher A. Salome Backup Catcher C. Medlin Starting First Baseman N. Yost Starting Second Baseman K. Holmberg Starting Third Baseman M. Gamel Backup Utility Fielder G. Rodriguez Starting Shortstop M. Bell Backup Utility Fielder S. Sollmann Starting Left Fielder M. Brantley Starting Center Fielder D. Ford Backup Outfielder R. Crew Starting Right Fielder L. Cain Backup Outfielder F. Parejo Starting Pitcher #1 W. Inman Long Relief/Piggyback R. Lluberes Starting Pitcher #2 S. Garrison Middle Relief #1 K. Roberts Starting Pitcher #3 J. Wahpepah Middle Relief #2 B. Stanczyk Starting Pitcher #4 D. Miller Middle Relief #3 P. Ryan Starting Pitcher #5 D. Welch Setup #1 D. Johnson Closer D. Renkert Setup #2 L. Pena West Virginia Starting Catcher A. Bouchie Backup Catcher N. Corredor Starting First Baseman B. Rowe Starting Second Baseman T. Green Backup Middle Infielder S. McKnight Starting Third Baseman F. de la Cruz Starting Shortstop J. Mojica Backup Utility Fielder T. Festa Starting Left Fielder C. Errecart Starting Center Fielder C. Gillespie Backup Outfielder Z. Clem Starting Right Fielder S. Chapman Backup Outfielder C. Caufield Starting Pitcher #1 B. Parillo Long Relief/Piggyback R. Mercedes Starting Pitcher #2 M. Kretzschmar Long Relief/Piggyback J. Cordero Starting Pitcher #3 M. McClendon Middle Relief #1 K. Pawelczyk Starting Pitcher #4 S. Fergusen Middle Relief #2 R. Malave Starting Pitcher #5 A. Rivas Setup #1 S. Palazzolo Closer C. Toneguzzi Setup #2 J. Romero

That would be the deepest rotation in the league, no doubt. The Brewers would be in the enviable position of being able to withstand 2-3 rotation injuries, which is a good thing because that always happens to the Brewers. Lieber for Mench/Turnbow would add around $1.5 mil to the payroll, which might not be possible as Melvin (or maybe Attanasio?) has already said that they are way over budget. The only way this gets done is if the Philles send some cash back with Lieber, IMO. Still definitely an interesting idea.

paul stewart...he was only here for a short while, but for that time i thought he was the real deal.. See, I only thought he was the real deal for about 2 of his 9 years in the system. I always liked Jason Belcher and Mega Thomas.

Not even a token vote for Rob Hinton ("RH the RHP")? This guy is going to start turning heads very soon.

Al, you should post it here... I'm curious.

I know I have the first four right, but the fifth one is bothering me... it rings a bell, but I don't know who it is offhand.

Antone Williamson is awesome. ---Pogokat in 1996

i think he'll stick...while people talk about his defensive shortcomings constantly, i largely think its is because they cant think of any other negative things to say about him... In addition to his defense not being that great right now, his pants are too tight and you can still strike him out with a fastball under the hands. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

http://www.cs.rice.edu/~dschwarz/lemur3.jpg http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/PHO/AAGX020_16x20-2006StudioPlus~Jeff-Suppan-Posters.jpg http://bojack.org/images/artestgrchs.jpg Lemur Suppan Cheese Sandwich, with Pickles!

According to VORP, DD was 1.8 wins above replacement last year.

Pettyjohn is a a soft-tosser with a decent curveball. At one point he was a pretty highly regarded prospect in the Tigers' system, but shoulder problems derailed a lot of his early promise. Shoulder problems? Where have I heard that before?

Another thing about Weeks is that he will get to a lot of balls, which is what helps the pitcher. He'll get to a lot of balls in CF, too. And Hall will get to almost all of the balls Weeks would get to at 2B, without the errors. Hence my wish to move Weeks to CF.