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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    He's posted a pretty high BABIP the past few seasons so I'm accounting for a bit of offensive regression. Maybe a .340ish BABIP is indicative of his true talent level, but I tend to doubt it. And even he does post a few more high BABIPs, it seems that if they stick him in CF that could actually detract from his overall value.
  2. And That
    I do think that it is important to acknowledge the volatility and imprecision of defensive metrics, but by the same token the existence of volatility and imprecision do not mean the individual results were themselves imprecise. The best answer for how good Eaton actually was defensively last year probably comes from a mix of the statistical results and first hand impressions from watching him play for an extended period of time. To that end, I bet Washington's scouts (and Rizzo himself is a very well regarded scout) gave the thumbs up on whether or not they thought his glove would play in center. I hardly saw him play defense at all last year so I can't really comment on the subjective first-hand viewing piece of it. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility he was really, really good in the outfield last year, so I tend to defer to the metrics available.
  3. And That
    Most of what you said was forward looking. I'm still trying to determine why you think he wasn't worth 6 WAR last year. I think he's probably a 3ish WAR player going forward. Maybe more depending on how his defense is, wherever he ends up playing. It wouldn't surprise me to see him post another 6 WAR; it wouldn't surprise me to see him post a 1 WAR if the bottom falls out of his D in CF. The Nationals, who I assume employee some pretty smart people in their analytics department, seem to tend towards the former.
  4. And That
    Like you?
  5. And That
    How does a future projection reflect his actual performance? How does citing WAR disprove WAR? Would you acknowledge that player performance can vary from year to year? Would it be impossible for a player who normally should put up a 3 WAR, to put up a 6 WAR? Would you acknowledge that some players, for some reason, have results that routinely defy regression in some skills areas?
  6. And That
    I'd say no about Bryant and maybe about Machado. But I don't think it matters a whole lot about how Eaton compares to two random players you've selected. You're going to have to tell me why Eaton isn't worth what the analytics say. It's your argument. I'm open to an analysis of how the metrics got Eaton all wrong. Go for it.
  7. And That
    Two completely separate calculations arrived at about the same number. BPro's WARP was about 6 as well. According to the currently understood measures of value, 6 WAR seems to be accurate.
  8. And That
    Eaton is a really good player making not a lot of money for the next four years. 6 WAR in 2016 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Ref.
  9. And That
    Depends on what you think of Soler of course, but this may make people feel better about the Thornburg deal.
  10. And That
    Looks like the Nationals are getting Adam Eaton from the ChiSox, so that probably makes their interest in Braun, whatever it was before, even less.
  11. And That
    Dubon is currently a borderline top 100 prospect. Just going by MLB Pipeline's list, Isan Diaz is a top 100 prospect, and Dubon is right behind him on the Brewers' top prospect list. Assuming the drop off in talent from Diaz to Dubon isn't too great (and I don't think it is), Dubon may not be a top 100 prospect by MLB Pipeline standards, but he's probably in the top 110.
  12. And That
    The thing is, before 10/5 rights kick in, Braun's market is essentially 2, maybe 3 teams - Dodgers, Giants, and potentially the mystery new team on his list. So when 10/5 rights kick in, he'll go from a market of a couple of restriction-free teams to a market of no restriction-free teams. It's not that big of a difference. 10/5 rights may even perversely help his trade value in that all 29 other teams will be on an equal footing, that is they'll have to make concessions to Braun in order to trade for him. As it is currently, his value is diminished to most teams.
  13. And That
    Yah, Washington was on Braun's 2015 list. Was removed prior to 2016 season. Braun made one change to his list recently, but it hasn't been reported what the change was. It is possible he added Washington back, I suppose.
  14. And That
    Brewers bonus pool for new international system is $5.25 million. Best as I can determine, Brewers did not get $5.75 million because they got a pick in the higher competitive balance round (A).
  15. And That
    Jonathan Mayo tweet So order still TBD.
  16. And That
    Or, maybe the Dodgers trade for McCutchen, driving Washington to make an insane offer for Braun and guarantee his option and un-defer his deferrals to facilitate trade.
  17. And That
    Yah, usually if it's an "or cash" PTBNL, it's a pretty marginal player. Might be a similar deal as Manny Pina last year, where the guy is Rule 5 eligible and can't be traded until after the draft.
  18. And That
    He has a higher ceiling, but Shaw has more value. Not to mention that's who Stearns was making this deal for mainly. How do you know that?
  19. And That
    Brewers twitter announces they also will be receiving a PTBNL or cash in the deal.
  20. And That
    Dubon is a plus defender at short, and played some CF in the AFL. These things work themselves out.
  21. And That
    Is the deal headlined by Shaw, or by Dubon? I'd vote for the latter.
  22. And That
    Thornburg did not have a track record of success, so as mentioned above Brewers could have rolled the dice and hoped for more of the same and a better return at the trade deadline, or hedged their bets and traded him now. Don't think it was unwise to do what they did.
  23. And That
    Shaw is controllable through 2021.
  24. And That
    A few days after Thames was acquired, I mentioned that I thought a good comp for him this year would be Travis Shaw. So... there you go. Eric Thames MK2.
  25. And That
    MiLB forms a PAC to engage in wage lawsuit.
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