Matt Breen

To my knowledge, no player has ever had their contract terminated or reduced due to PEDs. The players' union would fight any attempt to terminate the contract to the bitter end. This conversation comes up when a player tests positive. Every time the answer is the same - the team is stuck with the contract. The player has been punished for breaking the rules. He lost his pay during that time. But that doesn't make the contract binding. This is how it's been collectively bargained. And even if Braun just agreed to lower his contract value, the union would not allow it. It happened with A-Rod about 10 years ago. He agreed to take less to go to Boston, but the union would not allow the trade to happen. To get Braun's salary lowered you would have to set a new precedent, which would be very hard and potentially take years to accomplish. The argument, I would imagine, would be centered around Milwaukee being defrauded in same way. Again, a lot to hope for. Finally, I don't think Braun really would have anything to lose. Having his name dragged through the mud? It's already there, been dragged through and stomped on. Your only real option would be to extend Braun's contract a few more years, moving monies back into those latter years. Let's say you lower his salary in 2016 from $19 million to $15 million. You then extend his contract by a year (2021), giving him the $4 million at that time, plus league minimum. Would Braun be any good in 2021? Maybe. Maybe not. But you'd have him under contract for $5 million at the most. Maybe that wouldn't be a big deal, but then again, maybe you'd want the $5 million for other things in 2022 other than a 38 year old outfielder.

There is no guarantee that Ramirez will be back in 2015. I think it's likely to happen, but again, no guarantee. With that in mind, what are alternatives at 3B in 2015 if A-Ram doesn't return? Free agents include Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Headley. None of these guys is perfect. Ramirez might want to stay at SS and has been nagged by injuries over his career. Big Panda is probably your most consistent player who you could probably count on for 15-20 HR and a .280 BA. His weight has to be a concern, but despite his size, he's a quality fielder. At 28, he's the youngest of the 3B options. Headley had a monster 2012, but otherwise has been more of a 12-15 HR guy who will hit around .260ish. What kind of contracts do you think these three will get? Outside of free agency, I'll throw out a couple of buy low trade options: I think Mike Moustakas from KC is a good change of scenery candidate. Another guy is Matt Davidson of the ChiSox. He's a former top 100 prospect who had a terrible year at AAA (he hit .199), but coming into 2014 profiled as a decent power type bat. Any other ideas? I'd love a guy like Big Panda, but the cost (in money and years) is probably prohibitive. I like finding low buy types who won't cost a lot to acquire. In many ways, I'd rather take a risk on them than overpay for bigger name players.

This is totally right. Every player, except Weeks, declined (or continued to suck) in the 2nd half of the season. Post All-Star OPS: Weeks: .928 Lucroy: .776 Maldonado: .704 Segura: .632 Scooter: .629 A-Ram: .733 Braun: .670 Davis: .722 Gomez: .733 Reynolds: .653 Overbay: .661 Morneau alone wouldn't have saved this team.

This is exactly how we have operated the last few years. We put together a .500 team and hope we avoid injuries and bad seasons, a player or two breakout, etc. It's a bad approach since luck tends balance out over 162 games.

According to Cot's baseball contracts, Braun will make $19 million each year from 2016-18; $18 million in 2019; $16 million in 2020; and $15 million in 2021 with a $4 million buyout. He makes $14.5 million in 2015 - $12 million salary and $2.5 million deferred signing bonus. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/ Perhaps there's a better place for salaries, but I always thought Cot's was the best.

A 2015 optimism thread should be started.

I'm available. Gotta like the smile. http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/mlb/players/full/6218.png&w=350&h=254

Rickie giveth. Rickie taketh away.

I am intrigued by the idea of Braun at 1B. However, there are some BIG questions about Ryan playing the position. Some people point to his horrible fielding at 3B, which is a legitimate issue. Others say the main issue he had was with throwing. Still others note that Braun had really poor instincts. Bad instincts lead to bad reactions, poor first steps, etc. This latter thing - bad instincts - is what worries me most. 1B limits the throwing issue, but 1B does require good instincts. It's been a lot of years since Braun played 3B. I don't remember it that well, other than the bad throws (which were many). Maybe his instincts were terrible and will translate poorly to 1B. But I think it's worth considering. Braun is an athletic guy. He might thrive with the move, even if his 3B time was awful. This would allow us to keep Parra and put him into RF. This improves our defense, because Ryan is not a good RF. Parra's left handed bat should help balance our lineup. Also, the cost of Parra (around $6 million) is less than adding a free agent like LaRoche. The move would fill an obvious organizational hole (unless you think Rogers and Clark are the answer at 1B for the next few years). In some ways, I'm loathe to move Ryan to 1B because he does have the ability to play LF/RF. It seems a waste. But on the other hand, the options aren't attractive. And you have someone (Parra) who can ably play the outfield, so why not investigate the move. Again, it all comes down to Braun's ability at 1B. Perhaps the move will help Ryan physically. Not just the thumb/hand, but the various bumps that have cropped up over the years. In the end, if it helps Braun get back to being a .300/30HR hitter, I'm for it.

I had to share this interview with Brandon Moss over at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brandon-moss-on-the-anatomy-of-a-slump/ It's a great read. Moss, who's a bit of a stats geek, is really honest about his own flaws.

There are only 22 total players in all of the NL that have an .800 OPS or better. Per the mlb.com page, Braun has the 13th highest OPS (for the whole year) amongst all NL outfielders. So that means there are 32 outfielders that haven't hit as well as Braun this season that teams have trotted out there to start this season. Even with his last half swoon and baggage, I would bet that he would get more than a 1 year deal for $8M if he was on the market as a free agent. OPS is one way to judge Braun. Add in his defense. Fangraphs puts his OF defense as the 10th worse out of 55 qualifying players. Then there's the hand. It's clearly affecting his performance. He's got a .682 OPS since the All-Star break. That's gotta worry people. The injury could easily be a long term issue. And finally there's the Braun brand. He's poison. A lot of people hate him, including fans and players. Perhaps you're right and he'd get more. But there would be backlash from fans and maybe from certain players. And a one-year deal wouldn't cripple a team if Braun continued to struggle. I'm resigned that Braun is a Brewer for the long haul. That's okay. Even if he's overpaid, he's still a good player. I'm just praying he can rebound from his current health issues.

I provided my 'blow the team up' scenario earlier. Here's the other way to turn this franchise around - at least for a couple of years. It requires spending more money. Sticking at $100 million will force us to mostly tread water. But that just isn't going to cut it. Thus, we increase payroll in this scenario. Also, you don't trade any minor league talent to accomplish this. Here you go: 1. Resign A-Ram. 2-years/$24 million. We have no one in the minors, so this fills a huge hole. You could sign Big Panda - but I think he gets a lot more than $12 million a year - and for 4-5 years. 2. Sign Adam LaRoche. 2-years/$20 million. Gives us a good OBP guy, decent power. Needs a platoon partner as he struggles against lefties. 3. Sign a quality SS/2B backup type who can push Segura and platoon with Scooter if he struggles against lefties - which I think he will. Who this guy is is another story. But that's the ideal scenario. 4. Keep Parra for another year. He can back up all the OF positions and start if there are injuries. 5. Keep Rogers - or some other right handed hitting 1B to platoon with LaRoche. He can also provide some relief for A-Ram at times at 3B. 6. Keep Gallardo for another year. 7. Resign Duke. 2-years/$10 million. 8. Sign Luke Gregerson. 2-3 years/ $6 million per season. 9. Have Jimmy Nelson spend 2015 in the bullpen. Here's the roster, which pay, rounded to the nearest half million. C - Lucroy - 3.0 C - Maldonado - 1.0 1B - LaRoche - 10.0 2B - Scooter - .5 SS - Segura - .5 3B - Ramirez - 12.0 INF - Quality SS/2B backup - 3.0 INF - Rogers (platoon at 1B) - .5 LF - Davis - .5 CF - Gomez - 8.0 LF - Braun - 14.5 (includes a deferred $2.5 million bonus he's due in April) OF - Parra - 6.0 Of - Schafer or some other guy - .5 Total: $60.00 million Gallardo: 13.0 Lohse: 11.0 Garza: 12.5 Peralta: .5 Fiers: .5 Total: 37.5 Broxton: 9.0 Henderson: .5 Thornburg: .5 Kintzler: 1.0 Jeffress: .5 Pena: .5 Nelson: .5 Smith: .5 Luke Gregerson: 6.0 Duke: 5.0 Total: 24.0 TOTAL: $121.5 million The bullpen has nine players, but you figure there will be some injuries (if a starter is hurt, Nelson moves into the rotation). I'm guessing on prices (and years) for Duke, LaRoche, Gregerson and A-Ram. This sets the team up for about two years. At that time, A-Ram and LaRoche will be well past their prime. Gomez will be a free agent, as will Lohse and Gallardo. LaRoche would stabilize a bad position, while having an option to sit Segura should be considered essential. Adding a 35-year old starter (LaRoche) is troublesome. The other options aren't pretty, so that's the decision. Regarding Segura - I don't trust that he's going to be any good. If we let our payroll reach $130 million, we could add someone like Jed Lowrie. Not a perfect player, but he'd be a solid addition for 2-3 years, letting Segura backup SS/2B. Another key item is having a deep bullpen. Our rotation isn't great. It's good, and should provide league average production (we have a lot of guys that deliver a 3.50-4.00 ERA). There's nothing wrong with this - it keeps us in every game. But a quality bullpen is critical. If we don't have aces like Greinke or Kershaw, we need solid starters and an exceptional bullpen to win. Of course, this isn't going to happen. We aren't going to expand our payroll to $120-125 million - just like we aren't going to blow up the team either. We'll add guys from the second (or third) tier free agency shelf. I could see us bringing back Corey Hart or someone like that. We'll non-tender guys like Parra to save payroll, and saddle the team with inferior backups. It's a business - I understand that. But the Brewers get killed each year when our depth fails us.

If Ryan Braun was a free agent today he'd be lucky to get a 1-year deal for $6-8 million. So I doubt any team, even the Yankees, want to take on 1/2 of the $110.5 million he's owed over the next six years. Braun's a sub-.800 OPS corner OF. He plays averageish defense - at best. He's one of the most hated men in baseball, so he offers no PR opportunities. His hand problem that has bothered him for two years now - a problem that may never go away. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe someone would bet the injury will heal and Ryan will rebound in a big way. But I don't see anything saying that will happen. If Braun has a great 2015, I could see someone making a deal if we picked up a lot of the contract. But now, he's virtually untradeable.

This. We build decent, but flawed teams. Our roster construction usually require everything to go right for us to be a playoff caliber club. But that strategy rarely works, especially with limited depth (often due to bad drafting and cutting corners by cheaping out on reserves). Injuries and bad performances happen. Age catches up to players. Our flaws get exposed over the course of a long season. It's a tough cycle to break because blowing up the team means several years of bad results - something ownership doesn't want. I honestly don't blame them, but on the other hand, I'd rather spend a few years rebuilding and strive for sustained success, than try and band aid a flawed product and hope we can get lucky next year.

http://brantbrown.ytmnd.com/ The audio is all you need. Priceless.

Here's my 'blow up the team' scenario: First, acknowledge we will likely stink for at least three years. Everyone's patience will be tested. Second, build through the draft and by trading for high upside young players. Sometimes this means trading a good player, but it's essential to keep replenishing the talent well to stay relevant. Third, get a front office and coaching staff committed to his system. Without it, you end up with infighting and failure. Guys to Trade Trades should be for the highest upside guys you can get. I don't care if you get A ball players. This team lacks upside. Solid players are great to have, but good or great players is what we need. Gallardo, Lohse, Parra, Broxton and Gomez should all be dealt. Garza as well, but I assume no one will want his contract. But if you can deal it, great. Parra won't bring a lot. You could always keep him if there are no takers, and look to deal him at the deadline for someone who needs a guy like him. You could consider non-tendering Parra if you don't think there is a market for him. That would save $6 million or more. Lohse and Gallardo should net a couple of decent prospects (maybe not great ones, but decent ones). Both contracts aren't bad, and both players are coming off solid seasons. At $9 million, Broxton is more a salary dump, but whatever you can get is a bonus. Gomez is the key trade bait. He's got two years left at a really affordable rate. He turns 29 in December, so he's in his prime. We deal him because we have a guy who should be ready to take over for him within 1-2 years (Tyrone Taylor), and I worry his playing style is going to see him have a lot of small injuries in the future. Plus, he'll bring back a ton. The result of all these trades could be several top 100 type minor league prospects. I bet Gallardo and Lohse could get a top 100 type guy each (maybe not top 50, but top 100). Gomez could land a top 20 type player and more. These moves go a long way to replenishing the farm system. BTW, Braun won't be traded. No one wants him. He's one of the most hated guys in baseball, has serious health issues, and is owed $110 million through the rest of the decade. That's an untradeable contract. Free Agency Pick up A-Ram's option. He'll like decline and become a FA. We make him a qualifying offer, then hope and pray he rejects it, and we get a comp pick. If A-Ram accepts, you plug him in at 3B then trade him as soon as possible (I think teams have to wait until May 15 to trade guys like this). Reynolds, Weeks, Overbay, Duke, K-Rod - thanks, we wish you well. Players/Positions: Cather Lucroy - He's the one player I would consider extending beyond his current deal (which ends after the 2017 season). You don't have to do it now, but he's an exceptional player, the face of the franchise, and he fills a key position that there is no clear replacement available in the minors. Maldonado - If you can find something nice for him this year, take it. Otherwise, he's a good player to have for cheap. He'll hit his 2nd year of arby in 2016, so deal him by then. Adam Weisenburger should be ready to take over at that time (so will Zarraga, but his bad defense makes him a poor fit). 1B Go with Clark and/or Rogers next season. (or Morris or whomever we can get) If one or the other turns out to be a decent player, awesome. If not, try again in 2016. You can always try some other guys like Clark - a AAA lifer who just hasn't had the chance. Whatever works. The key is to give someone a chance to develop - even if it is a long shot. There is no clear replacement at 1B in the minors, unless Coulter gets shifted here. 2B Scooter is our 2B for a while. He's cheap and productive. Even if he's a platoon player, he still gets 75% of the ABs, and if he can continue to hit .280-.300, he's a heck of a value for at least 3-4 more years. SS Segura - Let him start at SS again in 2015. If he rebounds great. He'll be a nice trade chip when Arcia is ready in a couple of years. If he fails, then you give someone else a chance to keep the spot warm for Arcia. 3B There is no one in the minors ready to take over 3B. The team should target a couple of reclamation projects. Examples: Mike Moustakas from KC and Matt Davidson of the ChiSox. Guys like Davidson are great gambles. He's a former top 100 prospect who had a terrible year at AAA (he hit .199). The Crew should get a couple of these types and give them a chance to become a decent major league player. If it fails, no biggie. We'll suck anyway, and we find another in 2016. Move Coulter to 3B next season. He'll be our future 3B. LF Davis did a solid job. Hopefully, another year will make him better. If he could produce an .800 OPS you have a decent player - especially at a low cost. CF Let Logan Schafer start. While Schafer has failed the last two seasons, he's hit for an .800+ OPS at AAA in his career. Give the guy regular playing time and see if he can turn things around. If it works, you have a trading chip once Tyrone Taylor is ready. If he fails - oh well. If he can hit .270 and play good defense, he's a valuable player. You could find another guy like Schafer if the team just hates the guy. Again, give someone a chance and see if they can produce with regular playing time. RF Braun's our man. He ain't going anywhere for years. Starting Pitching Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Garza (assuming we can't trade him). You can consider Jungmann for the 5th spot, but he might need a little more time in the minors. You could add a cheap veteran starter. Or give Thornburg or Smith a try. Relievers Live with Henderson, Thornburg, Pena, Wooten, Kintzler, Jeffress, Goforth and whatever minor leaguers and reclamation projects you want to give a try. Look how well Duke turned out. I'd target other failed starters and see how they might turn out in the pen. They can become nice trade chips if they do well. Conclusion Ultimately, you know your going to stink for a few years. So let the young guys (Clark, Rogers, Schafer, Segura 3B) have a chance to produce. Then, in a couple of years, the farm system can start to produce some guys - Taylor and Arcia, plus any players we acquire by dealing Gallardo, Lohse and Gomez. A few bad years will give us some top 10 (top 5?) picks, allowing us to add some top tier talent to our 2014 haul of players. The plan: replenish the farm system via trades as best as possible, get some high draft picks, give unproven guys a chance, don't spend in free agency (save for minor additions), target players that may have failed with other teams who can fill a need, and commit to this process over the long haul.

Someone from the minors board can correct me, but I was under the impression his move to 3B was more of a move to give him some utility ability to play 3B, not that he realistically could play enough defense to stay there for a whole MLB season. Early signs are good on Rogers' defense at 3B. His fielding percentage was a very respectable .951 By contrast Braun's FP at 3B in the minors was .899. Gamel's was .886. Mark Reynold's was .881. He's certainly still a work in progress there but if he hits enough, they'll live with it over a full season and more. Major league baseball history is full of guys that over time made themselves into good third basemen. Those are three of the worst fielding 3B you'll ever find. Not hard do better than those guys.

Ramirez blew that one. Terrible.

If the Brewers don't make the playoffs I'll root for any team other than the Cardinals. I just hate them. The Dodgers would be my next 'anyone but them' team. They just bug me for some reason. I had a fondness for Oakland as a kid. That would be kind of fun to see them win again.

Question for everyone: if you made your list now, where would Matt Clark sit on it? Just curious.

I have updated the Top 25 Prospects with season ending statistics, news and notes. I've also indicated players who will be participating in the Arizona Fall League. I'm thinking we'll do an updated Top 25 in December or January - after the Rule Five draft, the Winter Meetings, and after a lot of the free agency moves (both major and minor league) have taken place.

Selfishly, I'm hoping Colorado Springs. I live about 40 minutes from there, so I could actually go to some games. But in all honesty, I hate teams that play in weird environments. Statistics get so warped, you often don't really know who's actually doing well or not.

It's no surprise that O is down. Guys that were hitting FIFTY HRs 5 years back are now hitting 25-30 and are on and off the DL. A serious PED program did that. They got their millions and don't want to join Sosa, McGuire and Bonds in the public eye. Without checking, I would guess that the present numbers correspond pretty close to the pre-Canseco '90s. Interesting idea. Here's a 40 year span with every five years noted. Even five years ago (2009), the numbers were staggeringly high. We have gone back to the 70s/80s era hitting, although the 16 guys hitting .300 would be the lowest in the study. 1974: 4 players hit 30 or more HRs (no one hit over 40) 22 players hit .300 or better 1979: 11 players hit 30 or more HRs (3 with 40 or more) 29 players hit .300 or better 1984: 10 players hit 30 or more HRs (only 1 hit more than 40) 25 players hit .300 or better 1989: 9 players hit 30 or more HRs (only 1 hit more than 40) 18 player hit .300 or better 1994: 10 players hit 30 or more HRs (2 hit 40 or more) 47 players hit .300 or better 1999: 45 players hit 30 or more HRs (including 13 with 40 or more; two had 60 or more!) 55 guys hit .300 or better 2004: 33 players hit 30 or more HRs (9 with 40 or more) 36 players hit .300 or better 2009: 28 players hit 30 or more HR (5 with 40 or more) 42 players hit .300 or better 2014: 10 players have 30 or more HR (no one over 40, but one player will likely make it) 16 players are hitting .300 or better

Sadly, the Red Sox seem to be in tank mode.

I think .230/.280/.420/.700 is far more likely. But that's just me. I very much hope I'm wrong. We could use a solid 1B for the next few years.