Matt Breen

I would do that in a heartbeat - but I doubt the Colts will. That's a huge price just to move up 4 picks. But hey, you never know. Desperate people do crazy stuff. Heck, our 1st (30) and 3rd (94) for the Colts two 2nd rounds (34 and 44) would be a steal for us. I think a more realistic deal would be the Colts two 2nd rounds (34 and 44) for our 1st (30) and 2nd (62). Move down 4 spots with the first pick, move up 18 with the second. Another option would do our #1 (30) for the Colts #2 (44) and #3 (75). Everything comes down to who's available and who the teams values.

You are welcome, and please take care at this time. I hear about this stuff from my wife everyday. It has been brutally hard - and immensely frustrating for them. They have a million people telling them how to do stuff or saying they're doing this or that wrong - when they are hamstrung by the lack of testing capability. To be honest - that (the lack of testing) is the #1 issue right now with the pandemic. This is, unlike the seasonal flu or SARS or MERS or whatever, a virus that can be transmitted by people who don't show any symptoms. That's huge. For all these other viruses, if a person shows signs of being sick (cough, fever, etc.), you can quickly isolate them and limit the threat they pose. But not with COVID-19. That's why we need testing so badly. Healthcare systems desperately want to start doing all the 'normal' stuff they do -- surgeries, checkups, etc. But they have to be very careful. As I said in my previous post, healthcare locations are usually the #1 place where sicknesses like the flu get passed around. More testing is the only way to prevent that.

With regard to the stay-at-home orders and so forth, the main issue that we face is the lack of testing for the COVID virus. As I noted in my previous post, the healthcare systems are simply not getting enough supplies to conduct testing. If we want to open back up the economy, the first thing we need to do is provide our healthcare systems with the ability to actually conduct the tests to see if a person has COVID. Once we have the ability to test, we can start to reopen things in a (relatively) safe manner. This means a barber could go to a designated spot, get a test, be told in a short time (let's say less than an hour) that they are not infected, and then head into work. He or she then goes back and does it the next day. Ideally, the barber's customers go and do the same thing - getting a test every time they want to go out. This doesn't have to go on forever, but what you need is a person being able to get themselves designated as free of COVID, and this allows them to do wherever they need. Go to the doctor, dentist, hair salon, etc., etc. That's your ideal situation. And I realize not everyone would get a test. But it would be foolish to go to barber or doctor or dentist not feeling relatively sure they are COVID free. What needs to happen is testing capacity needs to increase. As it does, you can start giving certain businesses and industries more leeway to open back up (with COVID testing requirements a part of the deal). Just starting with hospitals and clinics would be a great first step. Unfortunately, the healthcare systems have no idea when this will happen. Everything is being done haphazardly - and mostly left to the states - meaning no one can predict when this will be a reality.

Can someone explain how the stay at home order prevents hospitals from performing certain procedures or services? I'm pretty sure that's up to the hospitals. My wife is an executive for a health care system, and she said the biggest reason for this is the lack of testing. And let's be clear - this is not the ability to test - most everyone can now do testing and turn around those tests quickly (a couple of hours). The issue is the lack of supplies to actually conduct the tests. What the hospitals and clinics need is the ability for a doctor/nurse/worker come into the office, get a test, and once cleared - go to work. They then need the patients to come in and get tested as well. And once they are cleared, they get their physical or have their surgery done, etc. But healthcare facilities are simply lacking in supplies (swabs for instance). So they save those supplies for critical situations and for active healthcare workers. By the way, in the past - with SARS - the number one way to transmit the illness was through the health care setting. So you have to be really diligent about keeping your workers healthy. My wife's organization would love to do more stuff (see patients and do surgeries, etc.). They are getting killed financially by COVID. But until they get more testing capacity - they can't open things up. This is a huge frustration on their part. They just don't know when they are going to get stuff. They'll get an order for supplies - and then have those supplies taken by the federal government and diverted somewhere else.

Observations from this year’s poll Only 22 submissions this time. The fewest since our very first poll back in May 2014. The investments in the Latin American market is really starting to show up with Perez, Rodriguez, Garcia and Medina all making the list. Hedbert Perez really stormed up the charts after blowing away some scouts this past off season. Let’s hope the big jump is justified. Some guys are on their last legs as prospects - Nottingham, Ray, Erceg, Brown. All are older - 24-25 - and had sub-par years in 2019 at AAA. Another bad year could send them off these lists for good. There will be a wave of pitchers reaching AAA this year (Bettinger, Andrews, Francis, File) that have done well thus far, but don’t have loud tools. As Zack Brown learned, the PCL can be brutal on guys like that. Let’s hope some of these guys are the real deal. Where’s the love for Tyrone Taylor!? I was the only person to vote for him. Watch for a rebound this year!

Thanks to everyone for participating in the latest version of our Top 25 Prospect Poll. I hope this provides some fun with baseball currently on the sidelines. 
Here are some numbers: Exited Top 25: Grisham (graduated then traded), Stokes (waived) Newcomers - Perez, Francis, Dillard Number of ballots: 22 (lowest since our first poll back in 2014) Number of players on ballots: 66 Mr. Irrelevant (1 vote) - Tyrone Taylor and Jhonnys Cabrera Biggest risers - Medina, Rodriguez Biggest drops - Bello Likeliest to graduate by end of the year - Devin Williams Please know that all write ups are my own observations and opinions. I’ve made some guesses as to each players 2020 destination - but that’s going to be very tentative. So much can happen before we actually start to play this year. If you see any mistakes, please let me know.

#1 (+1) Brice Turang, SS, age 20 520 points (10 1st place votes) - 22 of 22 ballots New #1. Turang should hit for average and take his share of walks, making for some nice on-base numbers. Good runner, above average glove and a high baseball IQ. Minimal power will limit upside. Likely 2020 destination: A+ Carolina #2 (+2) Ethan Small, LHSP, age 23 511 points (9 1st place votes) - 22 of 22 ballots Dominated in 21 innings of Rookie/A-Ball last year. Small has a nice arsenal of pitches, but lacks a truly dominating option at this time - which may limit his upside. However, the Brewers hope he regains some miles on his fastball after missing all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. If he progresses as many people expect, it would not be a surprise to see him as the organization’s top prospect by year’s end. Likely 2020 destination: A+ Carolina #3 (+3) Drew Rasmussen, RHP, age 24 462 points (1 1st place votes) - 22 of 22 ballots A former 1st round pick of Tampa, Rasmussen put up some solid numbers last year (3.15 ERA, 96K in 74 IP) after missing all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery. The Brewers will likely continue to develop Rasmussen as a starter, but some speculate he could end up in the bullpen, where his upper 90s fastball could be devastating. A strong performance may get Rasmussen to Milwaukee in 2020. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #4 (-1) Aaron Ashby, LHSP, age 21 455 points - 22 of 22 ballots Big arm. Filthy slider. Has suffered from control and command issues at times. His raw stuff makes him one of the most intriguing arms in the Brewer system. Likely 2020 destination: AA Biloxi #5 (+3) Mario Feliciano, C, age 21 442 points - 22 of 22 ballots Led the Carolina League in HRs and slugging while earning MVP honors at age 20. Doesn’t walk much, and strikes out at a high rate. Defensively, he has improved enough that most scouts view him as a catcher - as long as his bat continues to produce. Likely 2020 destination: AA Biloxi #6 (+1) Tristen Lutz, OF, age 21 411 points - 20 of 22 ballots Big, athletic with a ton of raw power and a strong arm, fans are still looking for a breakout season for Lutz. He has, thus far, produced middling numbers. Likely 2020 destination: AA Biloxi #7 (+2) Antoine Kelly, LHSP, age 20 383 points - 21 of 22 ballots Kelly looked great last year in limited action. He has a ton of tools, but has a lot of refinement to be done. With a big fastball and slider, he offers a ton of upside. Likely 2020 destination: Rookie Colorado Springs #8 (-3) Trey Supak, RHSP, age 23 300 points - 21 of 22 ballots A great run at Biloxi - followed by an awful seven game stint in San Antonio put a damper on Supak’s 2019. In the past, he has often struggled when promoted to a new level - but has always rebounded given time. Let’s hope he follows that trend. At spring training this year, Supak showed up 25 pounds lighter than last season. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #9 (+1) Corey Ray, OF, age 25 283 points - 19 of 22 ballots Ray’s tools (speed, power) have been overshadowed by injuries and a hit tool that simply has not progressed as anticipated. His 2019 season was awful. At age 25, he is running out of time to step up and become a part of the Brewers future. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #10 (+3) Eduardo Garcia, SS, age 17 278 points - 19 of 22 ballots Premium defender with solid all around baseball skills. A broken ankle ended his season prematurely last year, but he showed great promise when on the field. Likely 2020 destination: Rookie AZL #11 ( - ) Zack Brown, RHSP, age 25 261 points - 19 of 22 ballots Poor Zach Brown. Last year was a nightmare. He went from a great 2018 - and sneaking onto the back end of some Top 100 prospect lists - to being bypassed in the Rule Five draft last December. The thing to watch for with Brown is his control. If it can come back, he can (hopefully) regain his premium prospect status. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #12 (new) Hedbert Perez, OF, Age 16 242 points (1 1st place votes) - 16 of 22 ballots The son of former major leaguer Robert Perez, Hedbert was a big ticket international signing last summer. He has quickly impressed people with his advanced across-the-board tools and maturity. Brewer fans will be watching for this 2020 debut as he will likely rocket up prospect boards if he produces as many suspect he will. Likely 2020 destination: DSL #13 (+6) Carlos Rodriguez, OF, age 19 221 points - 19 of 22 ballots The kid can hit. .327 thus far in two pro seasons - and still a teenager. The only things holding back Rodriguez are his lack of power (only 5 HR in 410 ABs) and low walk rate (2.4% !!!). But if he keeps hitting .300+ - well, we’ll figure it out. Likely 2020 destination: Rookie Rocky Mountain #14 ( - ) Max Lazar, RHSP, Age 20 218 points - 20 of 22 ballots Put up some stellar numbers at Wisconsin last season, including 109K in just 79 IP. Doesn’t throw hard, but features a plus changeup and good control. He could add a little zip on his fastball as he matures - which would really improve his prospect status. Likely 2020 destination: Rookie A+ Carolina #15 (+2) Dylan File, RHSP, age 23 195 points - 18 of 22 ballots Excellent control and command are File’s calling cards. He has, thus far, limited walks and doesn’t give up a lot of HRs. His lack of an outstanding pitch might limit him, but for now his four pitch make up has allowed him to put up some nice numbers. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #16 (-4) Devin Williams, RHP, age 25 185 points - 17 of 22 ballots Not much has changed regarding Devin Williams over the years. He still has an electric fastball - and struggles with control. At 25, he’s matured, physically and mentally - and it showed in 2019, allowing him to reach the Big Leagues, where he profiles as a reliever. If he doesn’t open the season in Milwaukee, he will likely be one of the first call ups. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio or Milwaukee #17 (+7) Luis Medina, OF, age 17 150 points - 14 of 22 ballots Was one of the top international OF prospects, signing with Milwaukee last summer for $1.3M. Scouts love his raw power and strong arm. Should be fun to watch. Likely 2020 destination: DSL #18 (-2) Payton Henry, C, age 22 135 points - 16 of 22 ballots Henry’s profile really hasn’t changed as he’s moved up the minor league ladder. His power is offset by a below average hit tool and a mediocre eye at the plate. You would like to see some improvement, but we must remember catchers like Henry can take time to develop. He has some intriguing tools - let’s just hope Henry can put them all together in the near future. Likely 2020 destination: AA Biloxi #19 (+2) Alec Bettinger, RHSP, age 24 115 points - 16 of 22 ballots An uptick in velocity really helped Bettinger in 2019. He doesn’t have the most scintillating repertoire, which means he likely profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter or reliever. No matter, if he can produce this season like he did in 2019, he will make the Brewers take notice. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #20 (-2) Jacob Nottingham, C, age 24 107 points - 12 of 22 ballots Weak numbers in 2019 have caused Nottingham to plummet in the prospect rankings. This may be the big catcher’s last year to demonstrate he is part of the team’s future. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #21 (-1) Lucas Erceg, 3B, age 24 94 points - 11 of 22 ballots The hit tool just seems to keep getting worse, and the power has not emerged as anticipated. Like Nottingham, this may be Erceg’s last chance to show the organization that he has a future in the Big Leagues. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #22 (new) Thomas Dillard, 1B/OF, age 22 91 points - 12 of 22 ballots 5th round pick last summer out of Mississippi. Dillard’s calling card is his power, and he has the potential to be a 3TO guy with this ability to hit bombs, take a walk and strikeout. He doesn’t profile as a good defender. The Brewers may give him some time at catcher this year - a position he played in high school. Likely 2020 destination: A- Wisconsin or A+ Carolina #23 (new) Bowden Francis, RHSP, age 23 86 points - 12 of 22 ballots A fine 2019 at Biloxi allowed Francis to slip into the Top 25. Francis has generally put up okay numbers in his career, but has improved his production as he’s matured. The real test will be to see how he performs in the run-happy PCL. Likely 2020 destination: AAA San Antonio #24 (-9) Micah Bello, OF, age 19 79 points - 13 of 22 ballots Good, speedy defender who - right now - just hasn’t hit (either for average or for power). Still only 19 and weighing only 165 lbs, Bello has a chance to improve as he fills out and gains some strength. A- Wisconsin #25 (-2) Clayton Andrews, LHRP, age 22 76 points - 9 of 22 ballots Crafty left handed reliever or speedy reserve outfielder? How about both. Andrews was a two-way player in college, and in 2019, the Brewers unleashed him in both capacities - and he did pretty well. A 3.19 ERA with 77K in 59 IP between Carolina and Biloxi was very solid. Add in a .333 batting average (on just 63 ABs), and you have a guy who’s versatility may be a nice addition to the club in the coming years. The rest Nick Bennett - 75 points Phil Bickford - 66 Braden Webb - 60 Joe Gray - 54 Angel Perdoma - 43 Noah Zavolas - 42 Justin Jarvis - 41 Jesus Parra - 37 Cooper Hummel - 36 Bobby Wahl - 36 Nick Kahle - 35 Scott Sunitsch - 34 David Fry - 24 Felix Valerio -23 Weston Wilson- 18 Joangtel Segovia - 17 Michael Mediavilla - 16 JP Feyereisen - 14 Lun Zhao - 14 Gabe Holt - 14 Je’Von Ward - 14 Carlos Roa - 13 Enersto Martinez - 12 Chad Spanberger - 12 Cam Devanney - 11 Pablo Abreu - 11 M Sanchez - 11 Quintin Torres-Costa - 11 Thomas Jankins - 9 Eric Yardley - 9 Korry Howell - 8 Anthony Bender - 7 Luke Barker - 6 Ryan Aguilar - 4 David Hamilton - 3 Reese Olson - 2 Garbiel Garcia - 2 Carlos Luna - 2 Caden Lemons - 2 Jhonnys Cabrera - 1 Tyrone Taylor - 1 Original voting thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=39604

With Day 1 being the first day that death tolls reach double digits, here's the progression in Italy, Spain and the U.S. Day 3 Italy - 27 deaths Spain - 19 USA - 23 Day 6 Italy - 49 Spain - 63 USA - 49 Day 9 Italy - 97 Spain - 191 USA - 141 Day 12 Italy - 250 Spain - 262 USA - 268 Day 13 Italy - 250 Spain - 288 USA - 401 (March 27 - yesterday) Day 16 Italy - 349 Spain - 680 Day 19 Italy - 427 Spain - 773 (March 27 - yesterday) Day 22 Italy - 651 Day 25 Italy - 683 Day 27 Italy - 919 (March 27 - yesterday) Italy has, roughly, had this happening for twice as long as the United States (4 weeks vs. 2 weeks). Spain is right in between at nearly 3 weeks. Spain looks like it will be worse than Italy in short order. The United States is quickly catching up in daily deaths - but a part of that is there are a lot more people. While the rates between Spain and Italy and the US are not an exact comparison, it's probably a more accurate comparison than with China (due to incomplete data) or Korea. Bottom line is that if we follow the trends of Italy and Spain, this is no where near done.

With Day 1 being the first day that death tolls reach double digits, here's the progression in Italy, Spain and the U.S. Day 3 Italy - 27 deaths Spain - 19 USA - 23 Day 6 Italy - 49 Spain - 63 USA - 49 Day 9 Italy - 97 Spain - 191 USA - 141 Day 12 Italy - 250 Spain - 262 USA - 268 Day 13 Italy - 250 Spain - 288 USA - 401 (March 27 - yesterday) Day 16 Italy - 349 Spain - 680 Day 19 Italy - 427 Spain - 773 (March 27 - yesterday) Day 22 Italy - 651 Day 25 Italy - 683 Day 27 Italy - 919 (March 27 - yesterday) Italy has, roughly, had this happening for twice as long as the United States (4 weeks vs. 2 weeks). Spain is right in between at nearly 3 weeks. Spain looks like it will be worse than Italy in short order. The United States is quickly catching up in daily deaths - but a part of that is there are a lot more people. While the rates between Spain and Italy and the US are not an exact comparison, it's probably a more accurate comparison than with China (due to incomplete data) or Korea. Bottom line is that if we follow the trends of Italy and Spain, this is no where near done.

The annual flu has a death rate of 0.1%. This is looking like it's more like 1%. It's much, much worse than the flu. Early reports had it higher than 1.0% - so let's hope that keeps going down.

The annual flu has a death rate of 0.1%. This is looking like it's more like 1%. It's much, much worse than the flu. Early reports had it higher than 1.0% - so let's hope that keeps going down.

My wife works for a health care system, and she said the data they are getting shows that things will really pick up in 7-14 days, and by mid-April we should see the state's hospital beds completely filled (although hospitals are rapidly trying to increase that capacity). However, there's a huge spectrum of results in all of that. So let's hope it is not nearly as dramatic as it could be. It will really help out if we can keep it from spreading now - and not waiting until things potentially get worse in the next couple of weeks.

627 dead in Italy in 24 hours. 86% of the dead were 70+. 96% were 60+. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-coronavirus-intl/index.html Just gets worse and worse each day. Let's hope things peak there soon and they get over the hump and things get better.

TJ for Sale. Tough to see for such a good pitcher. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/chris-sale-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html

This kind of thing is scary: 20 family members gathered together earlier this month in New Jersey. Three are now dead and four are hospitalized. https://people.com/health/3-members-of-new-jersey-family-die-from-coronavirus-as-4-more-are-hospitalized/

Voting is now closed. Watch for final results within the week. Thanks to everyone who participated.

China reported the mortality rate among the elderly as such: 60-69 year olds 3.6% 70-79 year olds as 8% 80+ as 14.8% Stats are supposedly skewed towards men. From my limited experience, a major factor is the extremely high smoking rates for men in China. Any lung damage makes someone especially vulnerable. I read that in South Korean something like 40% of men smoke. But only 5% of women. That is likely contributing to more issues with men.

The mortality rate has been much lower in South Korea vs Italy. Italy's had 30,000 cases and 2500 deaths - that's an 8% death rate!!! However, that's because data is just getting collected. They likely have tons more cases that have not been reported - or will ever be reported. In Korea, you have a population that has been tested a lot more often, and more mild cases have been registered (unlike other places, as you note, where people just head home and stay there). The mortality rate in Korea was more like .65% (I think that's correct). And some reports out of China have the rate at closer to 1.5% -- again, much lower than 3-4%. However, a big difference between these two populations is age. In South Korea, you have a younger population (18.5% of the population is over 60 compared to 28.6% in Italy). The elderly are especially vulnerable - and Italy has a lot more people in that age group. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html Still, there is hope that things will not be as bad as some of the projections. However, the big caveat is that you have trust all the people with mild symptoms to actually stay home. A person with a light cough or a little fatigue might not even know they have the illness, and head out to their job at a nursing home or grocery store or wherever. This is where you need people to be super diligent. But that can be hard. Especially for a person who can't afford to miss a shift or whatever.

A single nursing home in Spain has had 17 deaths in 5 days. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-nursinghome/madrid-prosecutors-probe-case-of-17-coronavirus-deaths-in-single-nursing-home-idUSKBN2151Y1 This is the scariest thing. The death rate amongst the elderly and vulnerable has been quite high.

I will second this in a huge way. Especially if you have the wherewithal to do such a thing. My wife and I are making it a point to go to local places as much as possible. And I'm talking about locally owned-operated places - not McDonald's or Taco Bell or Wendy's. Those will do fine in the long run, but it's smaller, independent places that are going to be killed by this. I would extend this same thing to coffee shops, local butcher shops, etc. Go there and get what you can from them rather than Starbucks or Pick n Save or wherever. We know some people who started a coffee shop a couple of years ago, and my wife stopped in and bought coffee yesterday. They are so afraid they'll lose everything because of this. It just is heartbreaking to hear this. Good people, hard workers, good product/service. All could be gone. While going out has its risks - if you are smart, you should be good. And besides, go out and do this while you still can. Save all your pasta and frozen food or whatever in case something bad happens - like someone in your house gets sick - and you really have to self isolate for a couple of weeks.

The Swine Flu had a mortality rate of 0.02%. Roughly 60 million people in the United States got H1N1 (around 20%), and about 12,500 died. It spread easily and quickly - but the fatality rate was not high. If I'm right, the death rate for seasonal flu is 0.1% - which is higher. Estimates for the death rate for COVID-19 have been running between 1.5% and 3.0%. Let's say that 20% of the population gets infected like in 2009 - that's roughly 65M people. Based upon the above death rate, that equals a death toll of about 1-2 million people. Of course, maybe the infection rate will be much lower - say 10%. Well, that's still 500,000-1,000,000 dead. And perhaps with all that has been learned, the death rate won't be as high. If 10% of the US population gets the disease, and it has a 1% death rate - that's still 325,000 dead. My wife is an exec at for a healthcare system. She's terrified of what it could do. Thanks Reilly, I wish I could "like" this a million times. This is exactly why this is such a big deal and is freaking scary as hell when you look at those numbers and that's exactly what we are heading for, slowly but surely. It's like a car crash is slow motion, with not much you can do about it, and people complain that they can't "live their lives" My wife says she feels like she's watching a tidal wave coming towards her in slo motion.

The Swine Flu had a mortality rate of 0.02%. Roughly 60 million people in the United States got H1N1 (around 20%), and about 12,500 died. It spread easily and quickly - but the fatality rate was not high. If I'm right, the death rate for seasonal flu is 0.1% - which is higher. Estimates for the death rate for COVID-19 have been running between 1.5% and 3.0%. Let's say that 20% of the population gets infected like in 2009 - that's roughly 65M people. Based upon the above death rate, that equals a death toll of about 1-2 million people. Of course, maybe the infection rate will be much lower - say 10%. Well, that's still 500,000-1,000,000 dead. And perhaps with all that has been learned, the death rate won't be as high. If 10% of the US population gets the disease, and it has a 1% death rate - that's still 325,000 dead. My wife is an exec at for a healthcare system. She's terrified of what it could do.

I saw that Trey Mancini of Baltimore had a malignant tumor removed from his colon. That's brutal. Colon cancer at age 27. Just feel for the guy and his family. Hope they got the cancer before it spread - and it doesn't return. This is why some players take those 'bargain' first contracts - like Freddy recently did. You never know what life will throw at you.

I can't believe someone else came up with this. I actually texted that to two of my brothers today. We all loved that movie. I still laugh just thinking about Max Von Sydow and what he must have thought as he made the film.

For some reason I think Phil Bickford is going to breakout if the club keeps him as a reliever. Just some weird feeling.