rickh150
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Everything posted by rickh150
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I’ll take this as a no and probably never will.
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Diamondbacks (Nelson) vs Brewers (Rea): 6/20/23, 7:10pm
rickh150 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Too young. Reds are too green. -
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Diamondbacks (Nelson) vs Brewers (Rea): 6/20/23, 7:10pm
rickh150 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
No way with the Reds… -
Can Black play 3B at MLB level?
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What is your reasoning?
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12%= Odds of Cards Playoff birth in 2023 on June 19 1.7%= Odds of Cards Playoff birth in 2011 on Sept. 1 We are talking playoff birth here… way harder for Cards on Sept. 1 in 2011 to make playoffs than now. There is no debate on this one point.
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Watched some YouTube of Misiorowski…. Have to come away just impressed. Tall and long, lanky and thin. A body you would expect to gain another 25 pounds of muscle. Throwing high 90s with above avg control. Interested in what others think… feels like a Strasberg type of talent coming up. His starts could turn into must see stuff.
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Go Nationals!
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So they are 8.5 back without playing ANY good ball yet? Great point. Even better reason that they will stay in contention longer and finally play up to expectations. They can’t underperform all season.
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Think we are talking about simply being in contention for a playoff spot. So you bet different. Like ten times more likely now for Cards to get the 3rd WC or mediocre division than the team that got the lone wild card (and won the WS) in 2011.
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Like Cards having a better run differential than Crew when the Cards are awful with terrible pitching and defense?
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They just need to lose. Forget about standings. Cubs too.
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You are correct… 12.1% for playoffs. Still 10 times more likely than 2011 Cards to make playoffs.
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Sept. 1, 2011…. Out 10.5 games of wild card….Odds of Cards making playoffs= 1.7% Fangraphs JUNE 19, 2023…. Cards out 8.5 games for division, 10 for Wild Card….. Odds of making playoffs 28.8%… odds of winning the World Series THIS YEAR…1.7% Fangraphs
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They have been in it all season! Still! It’s June. Season ends Oct. 1. Sure it’s doubtful for Cards to make the playoffs or win the division, as opposed to likely or probable. It’s doubtful, like fangraphs has posted…16% to win division, 28% to make playoffs. That seems about right. Many here seem to think of it as less than 5% odds for each.
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10 and a half games out of the Wild Card on Sept. 1!!!!
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In the standings, you are wrong. Their position to make the playoffs were much worse on Sept. 1. Pitching and defense, I’ll hesitatingly agree. https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Social-Media/st-louis-cardinals-2011-world-series/5KCJSCH2YLRJBY4R#:~:text=On September 1%2C the Cardinals,of going all the way.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs Fangraphs have more faith in Cards than Reds and Pirates… in a few days it would be Cubs too.
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So better than Milwaukee, yes. Run differential is a pretty good measure of a team, I feel the Brewers, Cards, and Cubs are the best three teams in the division and have no faith in the Reds and Pirates for 162 games.
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You must be too young to remember September and October of 2011.
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Their run differential is better than Milwaukee. Crazy to dismiss them. Of course not. Tons of season left. That is why I will cheer on the Reds and Pirates over the Cards til I dare say early September, at the earliest.
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Of course the Cards are going to get hot. They will be in the mix all season. Reds and Pirates have overachieved to the max.
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June 19 NL Central Run Differential (when Cards are 14 games under .500 and with Brewers in first place) Cubs +9 Cards -15 Brewers -16 Reds -19 Pirates -24
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Our lineup is a bunch of .230 hitters and we are in first place. Our bullpen is largely a bunch of unproven, cheap, young no names outside of Wiiliams….12th best ERA in baseball Our starters, many either hurt, in the minors, in the pen or doing worse than last year….12th best ERA Defense is a top five in baseball, and that tends to stay more consistent than other stats. With health to Woodruff and a few others, including Hiura and Frelick, and a few minor upgrades that should not cost tons of prospect capital, we are sitting in an excellent spot come mid-summer.
