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nathanj42

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Everything posted by nathanj42

  1. nathanj42
    Despite the high-ish ERA, Uribe should be the guy until Megill gets back to his 2023-25 form. Uribe's babip is .400 which likely regress. While his stuff+ is down, his pitching+ is 109, which is close to his career 111.
  2. nathanj42
    Guessing the rough value per year is: $1mm for the first 3 years, $4mm, $7mm, $10mm for the arb years, then 2 years of free agency ~$14mm. If he develops into a league average bat with above average SS defense, that's a huge discount for a 3-4 WAR player.
  3. nathanj42
    I still think Black could be an above average (3-3.5 WAR) LF type player (.270/.350/.425 similar to Ian Happ with slightly more bat and slightly less defense value) with his bat and speed. Insisting on IF reps cost him development time. He just never looked like a natural IF IMO. 2025 was a waste given his injury , and he's feeling healthy now. I'd start him in AAA to keep getting regular ABs, then when Mitchell gets injured, move Chourio to CF and let Black be the primary LF.
  4. nathanj42
    The difference between 2025 SP options and 2026 SP options is so huge.
  5. nathanj42
    Considering the Brewers only homegrown corner infielders of the last 35 years are Jeff Cirillo and Prince Fielder, it's an exciting time with all these potential mashers on the verge of contributing for the Brewers (plus Lara potentially being the next Mike Felder).
  6. nathanj42
    I assume they want Quero to start more games at catcher than 2025 (42) as they build him back from injury. Looks like his bat is more than ready.
  7. nathanj42
    Given that Contreras plays so often, not sure if Quero on the MLB roster for the entire 2026 season would be ideal for his development. I think Quero it'd be better if he spent 60% of his time starting in Nashville, and 40% being a MLB back-up in part of the schedule when the Brewers have fewer off days, allowing Quero to spell Contreras. Do we know if McGuire can be optioned to AAA if he is on the MLB roster?
  8. nathanj42
    I agree. This seems like the most probable roster.
  9. nathanj42
    As sports on TV became a bigger chunk of the revenue, NFL was in a better position to nationalize the TV revenue and equally spread among teams. Eventually is the model for the MLB. At this point, MLB alone isn't able to maximize the TV revenue. But hopefully over time, if MLB is able to traverse this changing media platforms, and level the playing field for media income. Note that I live near Seattle (the Seattle city itself is complete s-show at this point), and the only team that I've been unable to watch is the Mariners due to MLB TV blackout of local teams and YouTubeTV did not carry any RSN.
  10. nathanj42
    While CJ Abrams is a big name, I don't think he'd be a piece that the Brewers would want send outgoing talent to acquire. His fielding at SS (DRS -6, OAA -11) would likely push him to 3b or 2b (Turang isn't moving). Maybe he's an upgrade over Durbin, but Durbin does have 2 pre-arb years. The Brewers likely would choose to keep Durbin straight up over Abrams.
  11. nathanj42
    At this point, I'm not for locking down a back up IF with a guarantee roster spot, and Rodgers RH isn't ideal match to Durbin & Ortiz. I agree that Rodgers is a slight upgrade over the internal options (Monasterio & Seigler) given a long term injury to an IF starter, but the possible improvement is not enough to take away from the roster flexibility of having the back-up IF having options. Hopefully, Cooper Pratt needs major league PAs at some point in 2026.
  12. nathanj42
    The Bandbox comments were obviously not correct. The Brewers hit 38 more HRs on the road as compared to County Stadium. At the end of 1982, the 127 road HRs was the 2nd most ever ('61 Yankees had 128 road HRs).
  13. nathanj42
    Both the Angels and Brewers had great offenses for the era. Between the early '50s and the steroid era (mid-90s), those 891 runs were the 2nd most by any team (1987 Tigers scored 896). In the '60s, only 9 teams reached 800 runs, 16 in the '70s ('77 had 7, so must have been related to a warmer than average summer), and 24 teams in the '80s ('87 also had 7, really warm summer as well). At the end of the season, the 216 team home runs represented the 6th most of all time.
  14. nathanj42
    Yeah, pre-arb player former top 50 prospect that has a slightly above average ZiPs projection. FAs.... Kim signed for $20mm/1year and is already injured again. You had me at hello.
  15. nathanj42
    From their recent trading history, seems like Peralta is available at a certain price. With the Burnes deal as a template (top 50 prospect, former top 100 prospect, and the 34th pick), a Yankee Gil anchored deal is far from that price. Not sure if any of those teams (DBacks, Giants, Padres) have willingness to move the prospect capital to make this type trade in the way that the Orioles did (Ortiz was behind Henderson & Holliday in the org depth chart, while still a top 50 prospect). I see the Brewers moving Ashby next offseason. Next offseason, his deal is effectively a 2 year $17mm contract with a $13mm option. If he performs similarly to the last 2 seasons, that's likely going to have significant value given the RP free agent market. The Iglesias, Jansen, Hensley all got higher AAV. The Brewers aren't really wanting to pay that for relief pitching given how they're able to produce/find so many arms.
  16. nathanj42
    This is a good start to the conversation. Given those 2 veteran OFs as the top choices to use that salary, doesn't look like there's anything in the open FA market that is attractive to add to this Brewer roster. Locking down an essentially 6th platoon OF without options is not ideal, for either the Brewer roster nor the vet. Either OF would want more PAs than this Brewer roster would currently provide. Lockridge is currently in this role and is optionable, which is ideal to keep getting regular AAA PAs as opposed to sitting most MLB games. This could all change if Mitchell struggles/gets injured again, but even there, I'd rather see Tyler Black get the MLB spot (LH replacing LH) given that both Chourio or Frelick can play CF and Black seems like he needs to move to OF at this point.
  17. nathanj42
    N O
  18. nathanj42
    Mitchell projects as a 1.0 WAR over 228 PAs, so almost a 3.0 WAR player over a full season. There's 17 teams looking for a player like that, and Mitchell projects to make $2mm this season. Health is always his concern, but $2mm for an above average player with health concerns still has plenty of excess value.
  19. nathanj42
    After seeing Trueblood's article & the Garcia's extension, I'm more optimist with a possible Turang extension. I agree that while Turang is less likely to need guaranteed $ than Garcia, however his skill set (defensive range, base running, league average power) is less likely to receive a huge payday (only 4 2b signed for $100mm+ deals: Semian, Gimenez, Altuve & Marte) at FA at age 31. Gimenez signed at age 23, the other guys were considered better hitters. The Trueblood's estimate looks good for both sides. PS a Turang extension would be "sick" (using Brice's vernacular).
  20. nathanj42
    Agree with a lot of the other comments, that this is surprising. Definitely need OF depth at AAA, but not sure if they need to tie that depth to a 40-man spot. He seems closer to true AAA player than an AAAA player, IMO
  21. nathanj42
    He's probably not contributing for the Brewers. He's too far behind in the pecking order. However, a smart rebuilding team should try to trade for him, move him to a corner OF, and he's probably 3-4 WAR win player during his peak (high on-base%, low power).
  22. nathanj42
    Ug, the Braves, Astros & Padres don't have much in their farm systems. No top 70 prospects between the 3 teams. A couple top 100 pitchers, Ethan Salas (catcher) that struggled last season. Not sure if any of teams could provide a deal worth Peralta.
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