ChapelHeel66

Are Fischer (3b) and Adamczewski (2b/of) hurt? We are signing and trading for guys with <600 OPS and no defense. Surely someone healthy on the farm can hit OR field (preferably both).

Any theories about why we are wasting time with Ornelas (as we did with Bae) instead of bringing someone up? These guys are below replacement hitters and not very good defenders. At first I thought we were preserving rookie status for 2027 but we are past that now.

Some of Murphy’s explanations are backfilling, I think. In general he does not love Ortiz’s approach at the plate, and he instantly fell in love with all things David Hamilton. I think that is the overarching factor. Not a granular statistical evaluation, which Murphy generally seems to be skeptical of when he doesn’t like the answer. Because frankly, Ortiz hits righties as well as Yelich does. To me, some of Murph’s decisions are strange, but it seems to be working so I’ll ride those lineup decisions out. The one that most concerns me is the idea that we have enough hitting to see this thing all the way through.

I agree that a “washed up” label is harsh, but I disagree that this is a post-All Star break problem. His underlying metrics were bad even when his numbers looked reasonable (while still being below his norm). He was running a massive BABIP the first couple of months, while getting only average results. The swing metrics have been consistently awful all year. His early “okay” results were destined to regress without some changes. That has not happened. And this is while opposing pitchers still have not adjusted to the fact he hasn’t been able to handle breaking pitches for two seasons (they are actually throwing him fewer breakers). My take is different than lack of confidence driving his poor results. I think his poor underlying hitting metrics are driving the bad results, which are producing the lack of confidence. For lack of confidence to be the driver, we would have to assume he lacked confidence from the start of the season,, Maybe that’s the case, but I don’t remember hearing anything like that during spring training. Put another way, his lack of confidence is actually justified, because he has not been able to solve the underlying problems. That would hurt anyone’s confidence. I’m sure there is some natural decline in his skills, but aging doesn’t usually look like a cliff, so I think he still has something to contribute. However, I am not convinced it will happen this year, which is why I was disappointed we did not get a bat at the deadline (not instead of May…in addition to him). He’s currently a poor hitter with no position…basically a replacement level player. If he has not substantially improved the underlying issues by the call-ups, then I hope we give Fischer a chance at his spot. This is analysis, not criticism. I want Yelich to perform well, and he has a place on the team regardless. But to achieve our goals, he may need to be in the back seat.

I think we are just criticizing a moment. It doesn't meant the front office is bad -- that would be an absurd take, given the number of games MIL has won the last couple of years and the minor league talent it has built. But even a good front office can misstep or not do enough in the big moments. It is possible, of course, that a team very good at winning ballgames, the division, and even a playoff series, will not do enough with the roster to win a World Series. MIL cannot become a prisoner of its own small market teambuilding, patting itself on the back for doing more with less. There's no getting around that the real trophy requires much more aggressive moves than we have seen. The team is not close enough to take baby steps when there is a window. The Cubs just gave up their #1 prospect for Clay Holmes AND a major league outfielder with an OPS near .800. Their #1 prospect is effectively ranked the same as Alexander Frias, who we used (along with another prospect) to get a worse starting pitcher and an injured, underperforming reliever. That's worth noting, even while recognizing that MIL's front office is excellent overall.

Yeah, the FIP is really good this season overall (3.14), but Bernie is being selective with the evaluation. His expected FIP (3.87), expected ERA (3.91) and SIERA (3.94) tell a different story, but the same story. And his K%-BB% is pretty banal. All those latter stats are more predictive of future performance than actual FIP. (That does not make him a bad pitcher, of course).

Oof. Two potential major league outfielders to rent a starter who does not miss bats and a lefty reliever with an inflated WHIP and who isn't even available for a couple more weeks? This tells me the Brewers lost on every other potential pitcher out there. Or maybe something else is still coming. Even if these two guys help us, this is not a World Series move, so let's hope this is not all we have to talk about after the trade deadline.

I’m getting nervous. Four hours to go and we got Bo Naylor.

Agreed. The Dodgers are in position to resign Skubal, making him more than a two-month rental. We would have lost that off-season sweepstakes. I'd rather pay less and get Detmers, for example, and also add a bat.

Eek. If you thought Perkins couldn't hit, wait til you see Naylor. Is Pat Murphy so frustrated with Gary Sanchez's challenges that we need a better defensive backup...for two players? "The main benefit of the deal will come if they can turn Naylor back into the better version of himself." That's true defensively, as he has traditionally been pretty good but has graded out average this year on defense. But the "better version of himself" at the plate is still a very bad hitter. He lost his job to Patrick Bailey. I hope Perkins gets more playing time in Cleveland and can reset. He's a good piece on a ballclub.

Who wouldn't want Skubal? It's only about the price, and the price needs to take into account that the Brewers are likely to be outspent by a big market team to retain him after this year. Ultimately, I would not give up four prospects for a rental, because I don't think Skubal alone wins us a World Series this year. Can we win a World Series with the lowest power output in MLB? Maybe, but it is not likely. And one of our prime prospect trade chips, Quero, has less value for Detroit than almost any other available trade partner, because they have Dingler (stellar at the plate and behind it) under team control into the next decade. We can boost the team in multiple ways by adding more modest pieces. For example, I would certainly rather have Detmers and a power bat for the same prospects it would take to land one of the best pitchers in the game. There aren't a ton of power bats available on lists I've seen. Taylor Ward fits the Brewers profile, but rarely swings anymore, so his power has dissipated. I might take a chance on the dynamic Jarren Duran. He has had a (truly) miserable season, but I think it is the environment. This is 29 year old who has three straight years with an OPS+ of 115 or better every year. He is two years removed from a 9 WAR season!. I can't believe he is an OPS+ 62 and replacement level player all of a sudden. You can see the tension building there in Boston. I think playing for the Crew would take a huge weight off his shoulders and he would thrive. He's buy low, both in terms of prospects to get him and $$ to re-sign him.

I love Fangraphs but their 40+ on Fischer continues to confuse me, because the actual write-up is much rosier than a below-average player. "He clearly has the arm to play third, he's willing to lay out to maximize his lateral range, and he looked comfortable navigating the procedure at the position even though he was pushed directly to High-A. His hands are only fair, but he's going to be a viable third baseman who gets to power. Though we'd be surprised if Fischer were to become a star, he looks like a potential everyday third baseman whose realistic floor is still that of a valuable, multi-positional player who mashes righties." A 40+ is a bench bat fighting for a roster spot. The write up suggests a 50 or 50+, which seems right to me. It's also very early days on Payne, but they have him as a 45. I think he is at least a 60 and could ultimately be #1 on the Brewers list. There's no way I would have Jett or Josh (or Lara) above Andrew and Braylon, but Eric and Brendan are pros, and they certainly are (rightly) concerned about the K rates of both those guys.

Wacha is unspectacular, but steady as as a rock, and we could use some of that. He's a quality start machine.

Also, I don't think anyone has mentioned that the Angels front office seems exceptionally subpar. They are in a huge market and have never been able to build around the best player of his generation. I think our boys can outsmart them.

Soriano got off to a blazing start, but in the last 16 starts (almost 3/4 of his season so far) he's a guy with a WHIP of nearly 1.45, and most of the bad part of that WHIP is walks (4.5/9 IP). He gets Whiffs at an elite level, but the walks leave his K%-BB% at 13.7%, which is pedestrian (and it's only 9.1% in his last four starts). In his last 11 starts his Stuff+ has been above 95 only twice. He looks to me like a guy who is fading. I'm ok acquiring his arm because the Crew are going to need someone, and I'm ok parting with Quero because he needs a place to play and Dinges is an equally good prospect that can fill the gap. I'm not ok throwing a stack of prospects to the Angels for Soriano. Detmers, on the other hand, is above average on the walk side and well above average on the strikeout side (K%-BB% = 20.9% and 29.6%(!) in his last four starts). He has basically been the same high quality pitcher all year long, but he is susceptible to giving up too many barrels. However, I would rather put Chris Hook on getting Detmers to avoid barrels than having Chris try to improve Soriano's stuff and walk rate. Detmers is a much better pitcher than Soriano, but of course that also makes him more expensive. I can deal with Quero plus another prospect and a draft pick for Detmers. They are both arb eligible next year -- and both are going to get a big raise -- but they are not FAs for a couple of years.