ChapelHeel66

Detmers has some great underlying numbers, and fantastic stuff, although it can be a bumpy ride. But he's a pitcher. He doesn't play every day, and is much more likely to get injured than a position player. I don't think he can move the needle enough to sacrifice Pena. If a prospect of that caliber gets traded, it needs to be for another bat. Everyday catchers do not grow on trees -- and that's how Quero projects. But he does not have a huge upside and I think I could stomach including him in a deal for Detmers. We have Contreras for at least another year, which feels like the real window to make a deep run. We would need a longer term solution at catcher, but there is time to figure that out. If the Brewers can shape up Dinges defensively, we may already have the answer.

I have a Major League Equivalent calculation of Fischer, and ran some MLB player-season comps at Fischer's mean projection age 27 (and also the upper and lower bands of an 80% confidence interval). For the comps, I use HR Rate, BB Rate, SO Rate, OBP, SLG, Speed Score split into two components, and handedness, and an age factor. Comparable seasons at my mean MLE projection for him at age 27 included Will Myers 2019, our own Jake Bauers 2023, Steven Souza 2015 and Patrick Wisdom 2022. None of those are particularly good seasons, but they aren't terrible (think 720-ish OPS). The strikeouts are big problem. His upside at the 80% confidence level (age 27) produced the likes of Bryan LaHair 2012, Domingo Santana 2019, Ryan McMahon 2019, Ian Happ 2021, and Jamie Outman 2023. The names are not exciting, but those are some decent seasons (think 775-ish OPS). Also in the range of encouraging outcomes are seasons from Justin Upton, William Contreras and Brandon Lowe. At the low band, seasons from Michael Toglia, Oswaldo Arcia, Joey Bart, Michael Toglia and Christopher Morel (think 645 OPS). *The comps are hitting only. They do not take position into account.

Good analysis (including using the new Statcast timing metrics).

I would watch Schmitt closely this month. You are right that he has some big chase issues. If he can rein those in, his actual contact rates are quite good. Unfortunately, he's trending in the wrong direction on chase. Also, he hasn't walked since May 30 and only has 7 for the entire year. His walk rate is less than half of LAST year's Chourio. Does he have the plate discipline to be a Brewer? Yes on contact, but no on OBP. He's got some power that makes up for it, and he would be moving from the worst HR park for right handed hitters to a slightly favorable one. But I'm getting concerned about the barrel rate. The first two months of Casey Schmitt were ideal. But the last four weeks he's at 7.3%, which is more consistent with his history than the 12% rate he has for the entire season. That 7.3% is a little below average. Based on his swing timing metrics, I expect him to be around 8.1%, which is a little above average, but nothing like what the almost 15% rate he was rocking through May. I think Schmitt has found something new, but regression is catching up. I see him as a .750 OPS guy (with the OBP component around .300), and definitely not the .880 player he was through May. Granted, almost anything is a bat upgrade over the current 3b situation, so this is not an argument against Schmitt, who is a nice player with position versatility. But I do think MIL needs to consider regression in deciding how much to give up for him, because he is a definitely a "sell-high" candidate for the Giants.

Yeah, the Location+ on the Sinker is 88 for the season compared to 96 last year. And in his last 10 games it's down to 78. Since that is his #1 pitch, he is up almost 1 BB/9, which is almost a third of a run right there. The Sinker is also the setup for the breaking stuff and the change. He cannot sub in the 4-seamer for some of the Sinker's work because the four-seamer gets creamed. But that has not always been the case. All the sample sizes are small, but he has had some success with the four-seam FB in the past. I think he's going to need to drop the Sinker usage by about 5% and sprinkle it elsewhere among the plus pitches, including a few more fastballs. Either that or get his arm angle back down on that pitch. A couple of degrees makes a big difference.

Jesus MadeLuis PenaLuis LaraJeferson QueroCooper PrattJett WilliamsAndrew FischerBishop LetsonJosh AdamczewskiJD ThompsonJosh KnothBrady EbelBraylon PayneTyson HardinBlake BurkeColeman CrowCraig YohoBryce MeccageBrett WichrowskiMarco Dinges

There will be some regression. All our expected hitting metrics are mid-to-low-mid among the 30 teams, and in many cases behind our division rivals. I’m not worried about PIT and I don’t think STL has the pitching, but the Cubs lineup is massively underperforming. If our guys regress some and the Cubs get hot, it could still be a race. We still need a bat to take this all the way. The left side of the infield and RF are all below replacement. Every team can afford some below average guys, especially if they can defend, but a third of the lineup below replacement is a problem, and Yelich is surviving on a .377 BABIP that will definitely come down. I’d like to take a run at Carlos Cortes. Great hitter very much in the Brewers style and seemingly unappreciated with the A’s. They platoon him even though he hit lefties in the minors. He would immediately be our leadoff hitter and push Yeli and Chourio down to run producing spots.

I feel bad for Quinn. He finally found a permanent home and now has to go through this. Does anyone know what kind of TOS it is? I think Wheeler’s was venous and he took about 8 months (and looks awfully good out there)…and he’s at a much later stage of his career. Those who recover well tend to be good as new. Those who do not recover well simply don’t pitch anymore. He seems optimistic and I’m looking forward to seeing him on the mound in 2027.

One of the best things about this site (which is new to me), is that unlike social media accounts, there is a lot of honesty in the articles about player limitations. That is, you can love the players but also critique them without trashing them. Good job.

Can’t sit Chourio, ever, really. I love Frelick but if he needs to sit to get Vaughn’s bat, you’ve got to do it. Sal has managed -0.3 WAR in more than 200 PAs. Vaughn is +0.9 in less than 100 PA. He is 147 OPS+ as a Brewer. No amount of corner outfielder defense makes up for that delta, and Sal’s not a great defender anyway., at least not this year. It’s working, but it seems like something that’s going to catch up to us eventually. Vaughn won’t be able to get into a rhythm.. And maybe worse, the adherence to Frelick, who was really good last year but ONLY last year, might keep the team from acquiring a bat at the deadline.

Had to be done. Bad hitter, bad fielder, bad baserunner. Not a good “floor”. He’s below replacement so almost anyone could fill the role if the two one trick ponies, Ortiz (fielding) and Hamilton (running) go down.

So we play him at SS and move Ortiz to 3b? Rengifo really does not have any strengths, and Hamilton is basically a professional pinch runner, so they have to be the ones who sit (with Hamilton as a UT). But it's tough moving Ortiz from SS because he is a plus-plus defender there and does not have a 3b-level bat...although at least he is a really good third baseman too. We may need a 3b rental at the trade deadline to really make a push.

I think a realistic ceiling is .264/.358/.410 (15 HR/20 SB), the floor is about where Frelick is now, and the most likely scenario is .242/.331/.353, which is a good enough OBP to lead off these days, with speed and defense. Almost certainly an everyday player, especially for us. The problem at the moment is we only have about 250 PAs of this "new" Lara with increased power and a much better K rate compared to about 1100 PAs of almost no power and very high K rate. The "old" Lara was fringey at best. However, both of the HR/PA and K/PA stabilize pretty quickly, at least in the majors. He ought to get some chances this year because he certainly is not blocked by Lockridge/Matos/Jones/Perkins, or by Mitchell and Frelick against lefties. I'm reserving judgment on branding him a gold glove caliber CF, because Chourio's outfield defense grades in the minors were about the same, and he was projected for CF. While Chourio is certainly a pretty good corner outfielder defensively, he has never looked comfortable in CF in the majors for whatever reason.