ChapelHeel66

I used to worry that despite a lot of tools, Mitchell was destined to be a journeyman. He has impressed me a lot this year, and with Frelick struggling mightily, the Brewers have desperately needed his production. I still worry about that BABIP, but with his adjustments I think he can come to rest around league average at the plate even when the BABIP corrects.

We went from having an absolute steal in a trade, and an incredible 1-2 punch in the rotation, to not knowing if he can be trusted in any role at all. And it’s not like he was defying the underlying metrics when he was good and this is just a correction you could see coming. I can’t remember such an about-face in such a short period of time. I am beginning to wonder if the slippage in mechanics combined with what seems to be some mental difficulty recovering from bad outings is what made SFG and BOS willing to part with him. He was a top prospect as recently as two years ago, now on his third team, and struggling to stay on the roster.

I’m sad to say it, but Frelick has become a fourth or fifth outfielder. Because his bat is such a liability from both sides and the other outfielders are so good defensively, in my opinion he is dangerously close to not being worthy of the playoff roster. I think he will be on the PO roster out of respect, but if I had two leave two of the current 28 off, it would be Senzatela and either Frelick or Naylor.

I would be surprised if Happ got the vote because he has become a platoon player. And there really are not many strong defensive left fielders in the NL, with Ewing more often in CF and Benge more often in RF. Homerism aside, I don’t see who else they could pick in LF for the NL, but Chourio.

A break is actually good news — if there was going to be any significant injury. The soft tissues are the scary ones (except broken hamates). Fischer has some flaws, but his OBP is almost as high as Bo Naylor’s entire OPS (I know, those are minor league numbers), and we do not have a regular 3B…didn’t really from the get-go this season. I’m not sure the theory of having Sanchez-Contreras both in the lineup because they can rest more makes up for playing one of the worst hitters in the majors the last few years and keeping Hamilton almost every day at third, but I guess we will see.

No Fischer? The team lacks power and a legit third baseman (although apparently the manager is going to run Hamilton out there no matter what…regardless of how hot Ortiz is and Pratt having a hot game). Meanwhile I keep seeing Adams’s name on callup lists. His primary skill is getting hit by pitches, and he has no MLB position (projects to a below-average defensive 1b, and we are chock full of those).

Problem is that Naylor, while hitting in AAA, has been one of the worst hitters in the majors the last few years.

Well this turned out to be prescient for Tuesday’s game. That was not a particularly tough play. Can we maybe lock Ortiz at 3b and Pratt as SS now? Or bring up Fischer for some 3b pop if Ortiz gets cold? I’m so tired of the experiments with sub-par players: Rengifo, Hamilton. Bae, Ornelas. Brewers buying into their own myth as reformers, but that seems to only be on the pitching side.

What’s the case for Frelick getting his job back? Lara is no superstar hitter, but Frelick has been worse. And while I like Frelick as a defender, Lara looks even better. Plus Lara hits from both sides…and better from Frelick’s side than as a RHB.

Are Fischer (3b) and Adamczewski (2b/of) hurt? We are signing and trading for guys with <600 OPS and no defense. Surely someone healthy on the farm can hit OR field (preferably both).

Any theories about why we are wasting time with Ornelas (as we did with Bae) instead of bringing someone up? These guys are below replacement hitters and not very good defenders. At first I thought we were preserving rookie status for 2027 but we are past that now.

Some of Murphy’s explanations are backfilling, I think. In general he does not love Ortiz’s approach at the plate, and he instantly fell in love with all things David Hamilton. I think that is the overarching factor. Not a granular statistical evaluation, which Murphy generally seems to be skeptical of when he doesn’t like the answer. Because frankly, Ortiz hits righties as well as Yelich does. To me, some of Murph’s decisions are strange, but it seems to be working so I’ll ride those lineup decisions out. The one that most concerns me is the idea that we have enough hitting to see this thing all the way through.

I agree that a “washed up” label is harsh, but I disagree that this is a post-All Star break problem. His underlying metrics were bad even when his numbers looked reasonable (while still being below his norm). He was running a massive BABIP the first couple of months, while getting only average results. The swing metrics have been consistently awful all year. His early “okay” results were destined to regress without some changes. That has not happened. And this is while opposing pitchers still have not adjusted to the fact he hasn’t been able to handle breaking pitches for two seasons (they are actually throwing him fewer breakers). My take is different than lack of confidence driving his poor results. I think his poor underlying hitting metrics are driving the bad results, which are producing the lack of confidence. For lack of confidence to be the driver, we would have to assume he lacked confidence from the start of the season,, Maybe that’s the case, but I don’t remember hearing anything like that during spring training. Put another way, his lack of confidence is actually justified, because he has not been able to solve the underlying problems. That would hurt anyone’s confidence. I’m sure there is some natural decline in his skills, but aging doesn’t usually look like a cliff, so I think he still has something to contribute. However, I am not convinced it will happen this year, which is why I was disappointed we did not get a bat at the deadline (not instead of May…in addition to him). He’s currently a poor hitter with no position…basically a replacement level player. If he has not substantially improved the underlying issues by the call-ups, then I hope we give Fischer a chance at his spot. This is analysis, not criticism. I want Yelich to perform well, and he has a place on the team regardless. But to achieve our goals, he may need to be in the back seat.

I think we are just criticizing a moment. It doesn't meant the front office is bad -- that would be an absurd take, given the number of games MIL has won the last couple of years and the minor league talent it has built. But even a good front office can misstep or not do enough in the big moments. It is possible, of course, that a team very good at winning ballgames, the division, and even a playoff series, will not do enough with the roster to win a World Series. MIL cannot become a prisoner of its own small market teambuilding, patting itself on the back for doing more with less. There's no getting around that the real trophy requires much more aggressive moves than we have seen. The team is not close enough to take baby steps when there is a window. The Cubs just gave up their #1 prospect for Clay Holmes AND a major league outfielder with an OPS near .800. Their #1 prospect is effectively ranked the same as Alexander Frias, who we used (along with another prospect) to get a worse starting pitcher and an injured, underperforming reliever. That's worth noting, even while recognizing that MIL's front office is excellent overall.

Yeah, the FIP is really good this season overall (3.14), but Bernie is being selective with the evaluation. His expected FIP (3.87), expected ERA (3.91) and SIERA (3.94) tell a different story, but the same story. And his K%-BB% is pretty banal. All those latter stats are more predictive of future performance than actual FIP. (That does not make him a bad pitcher, of course).