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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    There's no reason for Stearns to be pissed at the Dodgers and I'm sure he isn't. Stearns would be negligent in his job duties if he didn't contact the Dodgers for 3 months just because he was upset about an offer. He's more professional than that. The Dodgers know there is a limited market for Braun and they're not going to just open up the prospect vault for him. If they did offer Puig + McCarthy plus 2 legitimate prospects, not necessarily top 100, there's nothing offensive about that. The market determines Braun's trade worth, not whatever we think he's worth. I'm sure Stearns has been in contact with the Dodgers since the season ended and if they told him that they want to explore other options first, they're well within their rights to do so.
  2. adambr2
    We'll see what happens. They could really use a right handed power bat. I don't see Fernandez preventing any other 2B signing for the Dodgers, although it might make it unikely that they'd have have any interest in a lefty 2B only player. (Scooter). I'm open to including Perez or Villa to get a deal done, although it's going to take a much bigger return, particularly with Villar.
  3. adambr2
    How about Braun + Perez? Might be more attractive than Braun + Scooter not to mention cheaper, while not hurting us as much as trading Villar. Don't get me wrong, Scooter is my choice to go if at all possible.
  4. adambr2
    I don't understand why anyone (not saying anyone recently in this thread is) should be surprised that the Brewers may very well be a bottom 5 team in 2017. Some of the best players from 2016 are gone, including a star catcher and the top 3 arms in the pen. Sure there are some names that could enjoy breakout years, but there's also guys who aren't likely to replicate their 2016 success. I don't see enough reinforcements on the way this year to indicate even a higher win total than last year. It's possible, but I also can understand why the projections are coming in under our W/L from last year. Improvement in a rebuild isn't always evident in a incremental increase in your W/L total. Just because we are getting closer to our end goal than we were a year ago doesn't mean that we're going to have a better MLB team this year than we had last year.
  5. adambr2
    I'd guess ( ) that in January, the majority of our message board material is based off of guesses and speculation. But in a few weeks the new top 100 lists will be out, so we'll have something new to talk about. Of course a lot of that will include guesses and speculation as to what they will do in the future.
  6. adambr2
    Well, I agree you can't anoint any team any year, but I also agree that the Cubs are definitely going to be good for awhile. That's tough to even speculate on; barring a total slew of injuries, I'd say they have a 85-90 win floor for the next few years. No doubt Stearns is doing this the right way but I couldn't agree more with MadThinker that you don't rush this. Accumulate talent at all levels like he's doing and let this play out. Even trying to accelerate this by one season could end up sending us into another rebuild 5 years later.
  7. adambr2
    Which is still really solid. Average of about 4 bWAR a season from 2013-2015, which covers every other full season of his career. I'd say if anything his track record reinforces his value, it doesn't take away from it. The Dodgers don't need or likely even expect 40+ HR out of him. He's still valuable .
  8. adambr2
    I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference. Assuming the 24-25 year old makes the big league roster during that time. Remember it's about a 50/50 chance that Bellinger will make it as an everyday player. Braun won't be Pujols ancient at that timeframe either. Braun is actually very fit compared to most his age. Look how long Konerko played and put up outstanding numbers. Look I'm not going to get into the comparisons of who aged well and who didn't because some guys still play well into their late 30s and some don't. There's no use trying to predict it because it's just not possible, there are numerous examples on both sides. Obviously this concern needs to be factored in for the Dodgers to take him on for 4 years. I also think the 50/50 prediction on Bellinger is probably way wrong since he's already at AAA now as a 21 year old. Would you say Brinson is a 50/50 shot to make it as a big leaguer right now? I sure hope not, or we got fleeced. I could understand that statement for a first round pick but for a top 30 prospect who is already in AAA, no. I think your ask for Braun is a pipe dream. Rest assured if I am wrong and we land 2 top 50s for Braun I will be the first one here to happily eat crow.
  9. adambr2
    This. The goal is to win. Not moving pieces around for the sake of value. If the long -term picture was of no concern and the goal was simply to win as many games as possible every year, we wouldn't have traded Lucroy. Value is extremely crucial to a rebuild. Obviously we want the best possible value for Braun, but the Dodgers are certainly smart to value, too. Also, did you really mean to quote and agree with yourself?
  10. adambr2
    I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference.
  11. adambr2
    Not even close to being the only factor whether he does or not. Cost, age, control, health and availability, position, potential for decline, these are all things that figure into the equation when comparing prospect value to MLB player. It's not nearly as simple as deciding whether Prospect A will match the stats of Player B. If it was we should have no trouble trading Braun for Yoan Moncada since Moncada is only a 'prospect' and unlikely to match Braun's stats.
  12. adambr2
    Nope, neither one, most likely. If Stearns got offered Bellinger for Braun straight up tonight, with no salary going to LA, he'd take about 3 seconds to accept and party in the streets of Milwaukee tonight.
  13. adambr2
    Even if you look at the last 3 years or the last 4, Dozier blows Braun away in terms of total WAR. You have to go all the way back to 2011 and 2012 to get to when Braun was truly one of the game's elite players. No one is going to pay us for what Braun did 4-5 years ago, especially at 19M a season for 4 seasons. If Braun repeats his 2016 for another 2 seasons, there's a real chance he could have better value by then as a team would only take a 2 year risk rather than a 4. Until then, I think people are going to be disappointed.
  14. adambr2
    Bellinger and Verdugo for Braun? I wish. If the Dodgers aren't willing to part with Bellinger for Dozier, why would they be willing to do it for Braun? Some obviously disagree but when you compare all of age, position, contract, and any other factors, I think it's very clear that Dozier has a higher net trade value than Braun does. If the Dodgers valued Braun more, they could certainly have him as he's obviously available. All signs indicate they're much more focused on Dozier right now.
  15. adambr2
    I think he could get a MLB contract elsewhere, but his trade value lies somewhere in between 'bag of balls' and 'steak dinner.' If he had any legitimate value I'd imagine we would have taken a low level lottery ticket for him back in August.
  16. adambr2
    Why would Stearns be kicking himself? He doesn't have to figure out what to with McCarthy and he's still has one of the premier bats in all of baseball manning LF who's locked up for 4 more seasons. Simply put, because I don't expect Braun to be one of the premier bats in all of baseball when this team is contending again, or even close to it. Certainly hope I'm wrong. Taking on McCarthy isn't an issue. If that's all the salary we have to take on, that's a victory. It's a necessary evil to get anything of value for Braun. Let him contend for a rotation spot, stick him in long relief, try to re-package him for 50 cents on the dollar to someone else as a salary dump, it doesn't really matter. It's only a 2 year issue.
  17. adambr2
    Honestly, and I say this as a big fan of David Stearns, and I'm just speculating, but I think the Braun non-deal in August was probably his first big 'mistake'. Frankly, I think he likely overplayed his hand, maybe just slightly, but enough to kill the deal. If an offer with Puig, McCarthy, and even two 10-15 organizational prospects was in play, I think Stearns is probably kicking himself a bit. Now there's a chance that Braun repeats his 2016 and all of this is a option again next year, but now we've got 10/5 rights to deal with. If they truly were right on the brink and just ran out of time by 20 minutes, that's unfathomable to me in this day and age to run out of time on a magnitude of that kind of trade for a rebuilding club. Like I said, I'm a big fan of Stearns, even if all this is true, people do make mistakes. And this is just mostly my speculation.
  18. adambr2
    Hard to assume a trade that has almost no chance of happening. Not for that return anyway.
  19. adambr2
    It's a necessary evil for a small market franchise. You don't just rebuild your roster and fill all your holes and it ends there. To remain consistently competitive, turnover is necessary and you have to always be looking ahead. Better a year early than a year late.
  20. adambr2
    I agree with Monty. Stearns will consider any offer, especially for a guy in his 30s, but I think we signed this guy to be our 1st baseman for the next 3-4 years. But every situation in a rebuild is fluid. Suppose he's killing MLB pitching the next 1-2 years, posting .900 OPS seasons, but the Brewers win 70. If top prospect offers are coming in, we'd obviously have to consider it. His contract (cheap, no NTC, team option in 2020) all make him a very easy commodity to move if he's lighting it up.
  21. adambr2
    My thoughts on Perez exactly. I like him a lot, but I value OBP a lot, too. Perez is good at just about everything else but when your 'breakout year' includes a 91 OPS+ and. 302 OBP it makes you wonder how much upside there really is. Like I said before if he can learn to take a walk he has a chance to be very good, but he's never done that at any level so I'm skeptical he can turn a corner there.
  22. adambr2
    That literally just added 4+ wins to our team projection I would imagine, haha.
  23. adambr2
    The author of that previous projection basically said to disregard it as they hadn't made a projection for him yet. Not sure why they published it as they did previously but that was the explanation.
  24. adambr2
    Not to mention that's even assuming he's a defensive liability.
  25. adambr2
    Yep, agreed totally. In theory, a small market team can stay near the top forever with the right formula. - Draft well (obviously the better you are, the lower you're drafting, but the competitive balance round helps) - Extend a very select few of your homegrown players. The earlier the better because the more you'll save, but you better be right about the ones you extend, big wrong investments will get you in trouble quickly. We obviously dodged a bullet with Prince, and the more deals you can do like Lucroy's, the better. - Trade as high as you can on your trade pieces, no matter how competitive you are or aren't. Obviously this is much harder said than done. Not only do you have to figure out where 'high' is, but you have to be willing to sell off pieces when you're competitive. It's a continuous cycle, but probably the only way to stay continuously competitive as a small market without a rebuild. Emotionally it's nearly impossible to trade a star away in a year where you're contending. Clearly doing all these things to perfection is nearly impossible which is why the longer a small marker can sustain a winning model, the more impressive it is.
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